Tropical Precipitation Extremes Research Articles

Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP

AbstractWe examine the influence of convective organization on extreme tropical precipitation events using model simulation data from the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP). At a given SST, simulations with convective organization have more intense precipitation extremes than those without it at all scales, including instantaneous precipitation at the grid resolution (3 km). Across large‐domain simulations with convective organization, models with explicit convection exhibit better agreement in the response of extreme precipitation rates to warming than those with parameterized convection. Among models with explicit convection, deviations from the Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling of precipitation extremes with warming are correlated with changes in organization, especially on large spatiotemporal scales. Though the RCEMIP ensemble is nearly evenly split between CRMs which become more and less organized with warming, most of the models which show increased organization with warming also allow super‐CC scaling of precipitation extremes. We also apply an established precipitation extremes scaling to understand changes in the extreme condensation events leading to extreme precipitation. Increased organization leads to greater increases in precipitation extremes by enhancing both the dynamic and implied efficiency contributions. We link these contributions to environmental variables modified by the presence of organization and suggest that increases in moisture in the aggregated region may be responsible for enhancing both convective updraft area fraction and precipitation efficiency. By leveraging a controlled intercomparison of models with both explicit and parameterized convection, this work provides strong evidence for the amplification of tropical precipitation extremes and their response to warming by convective organization.

Intensification of daily tropical precipitation extremes from more organized convection.

Tropical precipitation extremes and their changes with surface warming are investigated using global storm resolving simulations and high-resolution observations. The simulations demonstrate that the mesoscale organization of convection, a process that cannot be physically represented by conventional global climate models, is important for the variations of tropical daily accumulated precipitation extremes. In both the simulations and observations, daily precipitation extremes increase in a more organized state, in association with larger, but less frequent, storms. Repeating the simulations for a warmer climate results in a robust increase in monthly-mean daily precipitation extremes. Higher precipitation percentiles have a greater sensitivity to convective organization, which is predicted to increase with warming. Without changes in organization, the strongest daily precipitation extremes over the tropical oceans increase at a rate close to Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Thus, in a future warmer state with increased organization, the strongest daily precipitation extremes over oceans increase at a faster rate than CC scaling.

Increased Large‐Scale Convective Aggregation in CMIP5 Projections: Implications for Tropical Precipitation Extremes

AbstractConvective aggregation refers to the clustering of convective events and occurs on a wide range of spatial scales. It has been suggested that the behavior of convective aggregation may change under global warming, with potential implications for future changes in precipitation extremes. Here, convective regions of the tropics are defined from a percentile threshold on gridded daily precipitation data and used to quantify large‐scale convective aggregation in an ensemble of global climate models. Applying three separate indices for aggregation, it is found that large‐scale convective aggregation increases in 17 of the 19 analyzed models under future warming. However, aggregation is found not to be correlated with tropical‐mean precipitation extremes, either climatologically or with respect to the sensitivity to warming. The large model spread in aggregation indices across the ensemble suggests the possible utility of large‐scale convective aggregation as a target for model evaluation.

Significant Amplification of Instantaneous Extreme Precipitation With Convective Self-Aggregation.

This work explores the effect of convective self‐aggregation on extreme rainfall intensities through an analysis at several stages of the cloud lifecycle. In addition to increases in 3‐hourly extremes consistent with previous studies, we find that instantaneous rainrates increase significantly (+30%). We mainly focus on instantaneous extremes and, using a recent framework, relate their increase to increased precipitation efficiency: the local increase in relative humidity drives larger accretion efficiency and lower re‐evaporation. An in‐depth analysis based on an adapted scaling for precipitation extremes reveals that the dynamic contribution decreases (−25%) while the thermodynamic is slightly enhanced (+5%) with convective self‐aggregation, leading to lower condensation rates. When the atmosphere is more organized into a moist convecting region and a dry convection‐free region, deep convective updrafts are surrounded by a warmer environment which reduces convective instability and thus the dynamic contribution. The moister boundary‐layer explains the positive thermodynamic contribution. The microphysic contribution is increased by +50% with aggregation. The latter is partly due to reduced evaporation of rain falling through a moister near‐cloud environment, but also to the associated larger accretion efficiency. Thus, a potential change in convective organization regimes in a warming climate could lead to an evolution of tropical precipitation extremes significantly different than that expected from thermodynamical considerations. The relevance of self‐aggregation to the real tropics is still debated. Improved fundamental understanding of self‐aggregation, its sensitivity to warming and connection to precipitation extremes, is hence crucial to achieve accurate rainfall projections in a warming climate.

Impact of Microphysics on Tropical Precipitation Extremes in a Global Storm‐Resolving Model

AbstractThe impact of microphysics on tropical precipitation extremes is explored with a global storm‐resolving model by modifying the terminal velocity of raindrops. Depending on the time scales, precipitation extremes respond differently. Hourly extremes are influenced dynamically through the microphysical modulation on the convective updraft speed, as a faster terminal velocity of raindrops increases the updraft speed by reducing the total condensates in the atmosphere which increases the updraft buoyancy. However, the response of daily precipitation extremes is more sensitive to the microphysical impact on convective organization. By being more organized with decreasing terminal velocity, daily precipitation extremes are enhanced due to increased precipitation efficiency and intensified updrafts. Thus, the results suggest that microphysics, despite often occurring at small spatial scales, can influence the circulation at larger scales, and the microphysical imprint across different time scales plays an important role in regulating tropical precipitation extremes.

Investigating the impact of cloud-radiative feedbacks on tropical precipitation extremes

Although societally important, extreme precipitation is difficult to represent in climate models. This study shows one robust aspect of extreme precipitation across models: extreme precipitation over tropical oceans is strengthened through a positive feedback with cloud-radiative effects. This connection is shown for a multi-model ensemble with experiments that make clouds transparent to longwave radiation. In all cases, tropical extreme precipitation reduces without cloud-radiative effects. Qualitatively similar results are presented for one model using the cloud-locking method to remove cloud feedbacks. The reduced extreme precipitation without cloud-radiative feedbacks does not arise from changes in the mean climate. Rather, evidence is presented that cloud-radiative feedbacks enhance organization of convection and most extreme precipitation over tropical oceans occurs within organized systems. This result suggests that climate models must correctly predict cloud structure and properties, as well as capture the essence of organized convection in order to accurately represent extreme rainfall.

Response of extreme precipitation to uniform surface warming in quasi-global aquaplanet simulations at high resolution

Projections of precipitation extremes in simulations with global climate models are very uncertain in the tropics, in part because of the use of parameterizations of deep convection and model deficiencies in simulating convective organization. Here, we analyse precipitation extremes in high-resolution simulations that are run without a convective parameterization on a quasi-global aquaplanet. The frequency distributions of precipitation rates and precipitation cluster sizes in the tropics of a control simulation are similar to the observed distributions. In response to climate warming, 3 h precipitation extremes increase at rates of up to [Formula: see text] in the tropics because of a combination of positive thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. The dynamic contribution at different latitudes is connected to the vertical structure of warming using a moist static stability. When the precipitation rates are first averaged to a daily timescale and coarse-grained to a typical global climate-model resolution prior to calculating the precipitation extremes, the response of the precipitation extremes to warming becomes more similar to what was found previously in coarse-resolution aquaplanet studies. However, the simulations studied here do not exhibit the high rates of increase of tropical precipitation extremes found in projections with some global climate models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.

Convective Aggregation and the Amplification of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

AbstractIt is widely believed that precipitation extremes will increase in response to a warming climate, as inferred from both observations and numerical simulations. In the absence of changes in atmospheric circulations, extreme precipitation is expected to increase in already‐moist regions along a thermodynamical Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling. However, within the tropics, the sensitivities inferred from observations of interannual variability are roughly twice as large, implying an unknown contribution from atmospheric dynamics. In this paper, we use satellite observations and climate model simulations to investigate the relationship between convective aggregation and precipitation and the role that convective aggregation plays in amplifying the response of tropical precipitation extremes to interannual surface warming. We find that the occurrence of heavier precipitation coincides with a higher degree of convective aggregation. Extreme precipitation events and convective aggregation tend to increase during warm, El Niño events compared to colder, La Niña events. Although both the frequency and intensity of heavy to extreme precipitation can increase with increased aggregation during El Niño, the changes in frequency are more consistent among the observations and models than changes in intensity. In both the observations and models, increases in large‐scale convective aggregation contribute to roughly one third of the increase in extreme precipitation frequency due to interannual warming by shifting moderate‐to‐heavy precipitation events to more extreme precipitation intensities. The linkages between convective aggregation and precipitation extremes considered here offer insights into their potential response to anthropogenic warming.

Relationship Between Precipitation Extremes and Convective Organization Inferred From Satellite Observations.

Convective organization has the potential to impact the strength of precipitation extremes, but numerical models disagree about this influence. This study uses satellite observations to investigate the link between the mesoscale organization of deep convection and precipitation extremes in the Tropics. Extremes in domain‐averaged precipitation are found mostly over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean warm pools, and they primarily depend on the number of deep convective entities within the domain. On the other hand, extremes in local precipitation are found primarily over land, and they increase with the degree of convective organization. Therefore, this observational study shows evidence for a modulation of the strength of tropical precipitation extremes by the spatial organization of deep convection, especially over land.

Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world

The Paris Agreement1 aims to ‘pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.’ However, it has been suggested that temperature targets alone are insufficient to limit the risks associated with anthropogenic emissions2,3. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations, we show that atmospheric CO2 increase—an even more predictable consequence of emissions than global temperature increase—has a significant direct impact on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature, heat stress, and tropical precipitation extremes. Hence in an iterative climate mitigation regime aiming solely for a specific temperature goal, an unexpectedly low climate response may have corresponding ‘dangerous’ changes in extreme events. The direct impact of higher CO2 concentrations on climate extremes therefore substantially reduces the upper bound of the carbon budget, and highlights the need to explicitly limit atmospheric CO2 concentration when formulating allowable emissions. Thus, complementing global mean temperature goals with explicit limits on atmospheric CO2 concentrations in future climate policy would limit the adverse effects of high-impact weather extremes. A 1.5 °C temperature target can have varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with it. GCM simulations reveal CO2 increases have a direct impact on climate extremes, highlighting the need for climate policy to complement temperature goals with CO2 targets.

The Impact of Air‐Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

AbstractThe impacts of air‐sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere‐ocean‐mixed‐layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere‐only simulations driven by the coupled‐model sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present‐day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST‐forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere‐only attribution and time‐slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air‐sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

The impact of stochastic physics on tropical rainfall variability in global climate models on daily to weekly time scales

AbstractMany global atmospheric models have too little precipitation variability in the tropics on daily to weekly time scales and also a poor representation of tropical precipitation extremes associated with intense convection. Stochastic parameterizations have the potential to mitigate this problem by representing unpredictable subgrid variability that is left out of deterministic models. We evaluate the impact on the statistics of tropical rainfall of two stochastic schemes: the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendency scheme (SPPT) and stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), in three climate models: EC‐Earth, the Met Office Unified Model, and the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4. The schemes generally improve the statistics of simulated tropical rainfall variability, particularly by increasing the frequency of heavy rainfall events, reducing its persistence and increasing the high‐frequency component of its variability. There is a large range in the size of the impact between models, with EC‐Earth showing the largest improvements. The improvements are greater than those obtained by increasing horizontal resolution to ∼20 km. Stochastic physics also strongly affects projections of future changes in the frequency of extreme tropical rainfall in EC‐Earth. This indicates that small‐scale variability that is unresolved and unpredictable in these models has an important role in determining tropical climate variability statistics. Using these schemes, and improved schemes currently under development, is therefore likely to be important for producing good simulations of tropical variability and extremes in the present day and future.

Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST‐induced warming in aquaplanet simulations

AbstractScaling of tropical precipitation extremes in response to warming is studied in aquaplanet experiments using the global Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show how the scaling of precipitation extremes is highly sensitive to spatial and temporal averaging: while instantaneous grid point extreme precipitation scales more strongly than the percentage increase (∼7% K−1) predicted by the Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) relationship, extremes for zonally and temporally averaged precipitation follow a slight sub‐CC scaling, in agreement with results from Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models. The scaling depends crucially on the employed convection parameterization. This is particularly true when grid point instantaneous extremes are considered. These results highlight how understanding the response of precipitation extremes to warming requires consideration of dynamic changes in addition to the thermodynamic response. Changes in grid‐scale precipitation, unlike those in convective‐scale precipitation, scale linearly with the resolved flow. Hence, dynamic changes include changes in both large‐scale and convective‐scale motions.

Impact of Convective Organization on the Response of Tropical Precipitation Extremes to Warming

Abstract In this study the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming in organized convection is examined using a cloud-resolving model. Vertical shear is imposed to organize the convection into squall lines. Earlier studies show that in disorganized convection, the fractional increase of precipitation extremes is similar to that of surface water vapor, which is substantially smaller than the increase in column water vapor. It has been suggested that organized convection could lead to stronger amplifications. Regardless of the strength of the shear, amplifications of precipitation extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are comparable to those of surface water vapor and are substantially less than increases in column water vapor. The results without shear and with critical shear, for which the squall lines are perpendicular to the shear, are surprisingly similar with a fractional rate of increase of precipitation extremes slightly smaller than that of surface water vapor. Interestingly, the dependence on shear is nonmonotonic, and stronger supercritical shear yields larger rates, close to or slightly larger than surface humidity. A scaling is used to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to precipitation extreme changes. To first order, they are dominated by the thermodynamic component, which has the same magnitude for all shears, close to the change in surface water vapor. The dynamic contribution plays a secondary role and tends to weaken extremes without shear and with critical shear, while it strengthens extremes with supercritical shear. These different dynamic contributions for different shears are due to different responses of convective mass fluxes in individual updrafts to warming.

Tropical Precipitation Extremes

AbstractClassifying tropical deep convective systems by the mesoscale distribution of their cloud properties and sorting matching precipitation measurements over an 11-yr period reveals that the whole distribution of instantaneous precipitation intensity and daily average accumulation rate is composed of (at least) two separate distributions representing distinctly different types of deep convection associated with different meteorological conditions (the distributions of non-deep-convective situations are also shown for completeness). The two types of deep convection produce very different precipitation intensities and occur with very different frequencies of occurrence. Several previous studies have shown that the interaction of the large-scale tropical circulation with deep convection causes switching between these two types, leading to a substantial increase of precipitation. In particular, the extreme portion of the tropical precipitation intensity distribution, above 2 mm h−1, is produced by 40% of the larger, longer-lived mesoscale-organized type of convection with only about 10% of the ordinary convection occurrences producing such intensities. When average precipitation accumulation rates are considered, essentially all of the values above 2 mm h−1 are produced by the mesoscale systems. Yet today’s atmospheric models do not represent mesoscale-organized deep convective systems that are generally larger than current-day circulation model grid cell sizes but smaller than the resolved dynamical scales and last longer than the typical physics time steps. Thus, model-based arguments for how the extreme part of the tropical precipitation distribution might change in a warming climate are suspect.

Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change

Precipitation extremes increase in intensity over many regions of the globe in simulations of a warming climate, but not always consistently. Observational constraints, together with a close relationship between model responses to interannual variability and climate change, suggest a high sensitivity of tropical extreme precipitation to warming.

Intensification of Precipitation Extremes with Warming in a Cloud-Resolving Model

Abstract A cloud-resolving model is used to investigate the effect of warming on high percentiles of precipitation (precipitation extremes) in the idealized setting of radiative-convective equilibrium. While this idealized setting does not allow for several factors that influence precipitation in the tropics, it does allow for an evaluation of the response of precipitation extremes to warming in simulations with resolved rather than parameterized convection. The methodology developed should also be applicable to less idealized simulations. Modeled precipitation extremes are found to increase in magnitude in response to an increase in sea surface temperature. A dry static energy budget is used to relate the changes in precipitation extremes to changes in atmospheric temperature, vertical velocity, and precipitation efficiency. To first order, the changes in precipitation extremes are captured by changes in the mean temperature structure of the atmosphere. Changes in vertical velocities play a secondary role and tend to weaken the strength of precipitation extremes, despite an intensification of updraft velocities in the upper troposphere. The influence of changes in condensate transports on precipitation extremes is quantified in terms of a precipitation efficiency; it does not change greatly with warming. Tropical precipitation extremes have previously been found to increase at a greater fractional rate than the amount of atmospheric water vapor in observations of present-day variability and in some climate model simulations with parameterized convection. But the fractional increases in precipitation extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are comparable in magnitude to those in surface water vapor concentrations (owing to a partial cancellation between dynamical and thermodynamical changes), and are substantially less than the fractional increases in column water vapor.

Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models

Precipitation extreme changes are often assumed to scale with, or are constrained by, the change in atmospheric moisture content. Studies have generally confirmed the scaling based on moisture content for the midlatitudes but identified deviations for the tropics. In fact half of the twelve selected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models exhibit increases faster than the climatological-mean precipitable water change for high percentiles of tropical daily precipitation, albeit with significant intermodel scatter. Decomposition of the precipitation extreme changes reveals that the variations among models can be attributed primarily to the differences in the upward velocity. Both the amplitude and vertical profile of vertical motion are found to affect precipitation extremes. A recently proposed scaling that incorporates these dynamical effects can capture the basic features of precipitation changes in both the tropics and midlatitudes. In particular, the increases in tropical precipitation extremes significantly exceed the precipitable water change in Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a coupled general circulation model with the highest resolution among IPCC climate models whose precipitation characteristics have been shown to reasonably match those of observations. The expected intensification of tropical disturbances points to the possibility of precipitation extreme increases beyond the moisture content increase as is found in MIROC and some of IPCC models.