Tropical Pacific Ocean Research Articles

Seasonal predictions of sea surface height in BCC-CSM1.1m and their modulation by tropical climate dominant modes

Sea surface height (SSH) variation has profound impacts on ecological system and socioeconomical activities, and thus skillful prediction for SSH on seasonal to interannual scale is quite desirable. This study evaluates the seasonal prediction skills of global SSH based on outputs from Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1.1m) seasonal forecasting system and further investigates the predictability source of SSH. Compared with the damped persistence forecast, superiority of dynamic prediction of this model is mainly found over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean. Prediction skills depend on initiated month and length of lead time and also feature the spring prediction barrier related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are clearly modulated by ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), respectively. During El Niño/La Niña, there are higher skills of SSH prediction over tropical Pacific and when IOD event occurred, higher skills initiated in boreal autumn emerge over the tropical Indian Ocean. What's more, SSH over tropical western Pacific is significantly correlated with ENSO/annual cycle combination mode. Further analysis indicates that ENSO/IOD is the main source of predictability for SSH over tropical Pacific/Indian Ocean. We demonstrate that the performance of SSH prediction in the model is largely dependent on the capability of representing such observed relationships and predicting ENSO/IOD. The considerable skill in predicting large-scale SSH variation on seasonal scale indicates that BCC-CSM1.1m could join as a member of ensemble of multiple global models and contribute to improved seasonal sea level prediction.

Interannual Variability of Autumn Precipitation Over the Greater Mekong Subregion

AbstractThis study investigates the interannual variability in autumn precipitation over the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) during the period 1981–2019 and its possible causes. Statistical analysis indicates that GMS autumn precipitation showed a seesaw pattern between the central–southern and northeastern GMS over interannual timescales. The tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), reflected in the tropical northeastern Pacific SST index (TNEPI), significantly modulate anomalous GMS autumn precipitation. When the TNEPI is higher than normal, the SSTAs pattern prevails during autumn, with warmer SSTAs in the tropical eastern Pacific and western Indian Ocean, and colder SSTAs in the tropical western Pacific and southeastern Indian Ocean. This SSTAs pattern excites an anomalous anticyclone in the lower troposphere over the central–southern GMS and an anomalous cyclone over the northeastern GMS by the Gill–Matsuno mechanism. Subsequently, the anomalous anticyclone with anomalous descending motion results in below‐normal autumn precipitation over the central–southern GMS via a weakening of the convergence of water vapor from the tropical western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal. The anomalous cyclone on the northern flank of anomalous anticyclone, benefiting from water vapor supply from the Bay of Bengal, leads to above‐normal autumn precipitation over the northeastern GMS. The TNEPI, incorporating signals from the eastern‐Pacific (EP) type of ENSO, Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and SSTAs associated with the Trans‐Niño index (TNI‐like), shows a stronger relationship with GMS autumn precipitation than individual indexes that describing the EP‐type ENSO, IOD or TNI‐like pattern. Therefore, the TNEPI can be considered an efficient predictor of GMS autumn precipitation.

Two-Way Teleconnections between the Southern Ocean and the Tropical Pacific via a Dynamic Feedback

Abstract Despite substantial global mean warming, surface cooling has occurred in both the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean over the past 40 years, influencing both regional climates and estimates of Earth’s climate sensitivity to rising greenhouse gases. While a tropical influence on the extratropics has been extensively studied in the literature, here we demonstrate that the teleconnection works in the other direction as well, with the southeast Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean exerting a strong influence on the tropical eastern Pacific. Using a slab ocean model, we find that the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response to an imposed Southern Ocean surface heat flux forcing is sensitive to the longitudinal location of that forcing, suggesting an atmospheric pathway associated with regional dynamics rather than reflecting a zonal-mean energetic constraint. The transient response shows that an imposed Southern Ocean cooling in the southeast Pacific sector first propagates into the tropics by mean-wind advection. Once tropical Pacific SSTs are perturbed, they then drive remote changes to atmospheric circulation in the extratropics that further enhance both Southern Ocean and tropical cooling. These results suggest a mutually interactive two-way teleconnection between the Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific through atmospheric circulations, and highlight potential impacts on the tropics from the extratropical climate changes over the instrumental record and in the future.

Plio-Pleistocene Planktic Foraminiferal Biochronology of ODP Site 762B, Exmouth Plateau, Southeast Indian Ocean

ABSTRACTThe Indonesian Throughflow region connects the tropical Pacific Ocean with the eastern Indian Ocean, and variability of the Throughflow during the Plio-Pleistocene has been related to major climate shifts at the global level. Planktic foraminiferal biostratigraphy integrated with magnetochronology provides a robust time framework for assigning age control to major paleoceanographic events. Understanding of the coupled histories of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Western Pacific Warm Pool, Indonesian Throughflow, and the eastern Indian Ocean has greatly benefitted from the chronological framework provided by planktic foraminiferal biostratigraphies from these regions. Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 762 lies under the influence of the Leeuwin Current, originating from the Indonesian Throughflow. Multiproxy data have been collected from Hole 762B and other nearby sites for paleoceanographic interpretation. However, a detailed planktic foraminiferal biostratigraphy integrated with magnetochronology is not available from this site. We provide here the sequential order of planktic foraminiferal First Occurrence (FO) and Last Occurrence (LO) events, which allowed us to divide the examined section into seven biostratigraphic zones. The biostratigraphy was integrated with magnetostratigraphy using revised ages of magnetochrons, which yielded biochronological age estimates for planktic foraminiferal events. A major planktonic faunal turnover between 3.4 and 2.7 Ma is probably related to the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation and related changes in the Indonesian Throughflow. We have compared our numerical age estimates with published ages from other parts of the world. The diachronism observed probably is related to the local oceanographic setting of ODP Hole 762B, which has been alternatively influenced by changing strengths of the warm Leeuwin Current and the cold west Australian Current. The biochronology established here will be useful for correlating paleoceanographic events in the region.

Physical–empirical prediction model for the dominant mode of extreme high temperature events in eastern China during summer

The dominant mode of extreme high temperature events in eastern China during summer shows a dipole pattern with opposite anomalies over southern and northeastern China, which explains 25% of the variance. We document the limited prediction skill of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) for the dominant mode of these events. Based on the mechanisms related to the dominant mode, a physical–empirical model was established that improved the prediction of extreme high temperature events in eastern China, which will help in disaster prediction and mitigation. The physical connection between the dominant mode and the summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the western tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean was predicted well by the CFSv2 hindcasts, and thus the areal mean CFSv2-hindcast SSTs over the western tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean served as a predictor in the physical–empirical model. In the observations, the soil moisture over southern China in the preceding December (soil_Dec) combined the signal of the air–sea interactions over the tropical and northern extratropical Pacific Ocean, which induced anomalous SSTs in the Indian and western tropical Pacific oceans in the following summer and contributed to the dominant mode. Soil_Dec was therefore closely correlated with the dominant mode and was used as a predictor. The results of the one-year-leave cross-validation and independent hindcast showed that the time series of the dominant mode was better predicted by the physical–empirical model than by the CFSv2 hindcasts, with an improved correlation coefficient from insignificant to about 0.8, a root-mean-square error reduced by about 50% and an increased rate of same signs. The physical–empirical model showed advantages in the prediction of the dominant mode of summer extreme high temperature events over eastern China, which may be used in the prediction of other climate variables.

Can signal-to-noise ratio indicate prediction skill? Based on skill assessment of 1-month lead prediction of monthly temperature anomaly over Japan

We present a skill assessment of 1-month lead deterministic predictions of monthly surface air temperature anomalies over most part of Japan based on a large-ensemble climate model, SINTEX-F. We found that September is the most predictable and the only month in which the prediction skill beats the persistence. Interestingly, however, prediction of December becomes skillful (correlation skill: 0.67) when we select only years in which the signal-to-noise ratio of the predictions is relatively high. This means that the signal-to-noise ratio can partly indicate the prediction skill. The inter-member co-variability suggests that a combination of the tropical Pacific and western Indian Ocean surface temperature is the key for the prediction. Although seasonal climate prediction in the mid-latitude regions, such as Japan, is still challenging in general, providing the signal-to-noise ratio and the inter-member co-variability in addition to the real-time prediction might be useful for stakeholders to know how confident the individual prediction is, as well as its potential sources of predictability. Such information can be helpful to take necessary mitigation measures to reduce socio-economic losses associated with extreme climate.

Export of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the eddy region of the tropical northwest Pacific

We examined particulate organic carbon (POC) export using 238U–234Th disequilibrium in the tropical northwest Pacific Ocean, where numerous eddies are present. We obtained data from an anticyclonic eddy in 2019 and from both anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies in 2020. In 2019, excess 234Th and higher POC concentrations were observed in the upper 100 m layer inside the anticyclonic eddy compared with the outer area of the eddy (the reference site). We speculate that the peculiar feature of excess 234Th in the surface layer was caused by horizontal transport of POC into the eddy and consequent POC degradation and release of particulate 234Th to a dissolved form. However, in 2020, lower POC concentrations with 234Th deficiency were observed in both cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies relative to the reference site. In both years, POC export was lower in the cores of the anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies relative to the reference site. We propose that severe nutrient depletion in the upper 150 m layer hindered nutrient supply by vertical water movement in the eddies. Despite the low POC export at 100 m depth, POC export at 500 m depth was comparable to values observed at 500 m depth at Station Papa in the more productive northeastern Pacific region. Our results imply that POC export into the deep ocean interior in this region may not be as low as expected from the low primary productivity in the euphotic zone.

Variability of Remotely Sensed Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence in Relation to Climate Indices

Global remote sensing of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), a proxy for plant photosynthetic activity, represents a breakthrough in the systematic observation of global-scale gross primary production and other ecosystem functions. Here, we hypothesize that all earth ecosystem variabilities, including SIF, are affected by climate variations. The main contribution of this study is to apply a global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of SIF to quantify the relations between the large-scale GPP variability and climate variations. We used 2007–2019 SIF data derived from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) satellite sensor observations and a rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to explore global SIF variability over years and decades. The first leading EOF mode captures the well-known ENSO pattern, with most of the variance over continents in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The second and third leading EOF modes in SIF variability are significantly related to the NAO and PDO climate indices, respectively. Our analysis also shows that the 2011 La Niña (2015 El Niño) elevated (decreased) global SIF.

Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years

The role of the tropical Pacific Ocean and its linkages to the southern hemisphere during the last deglacial warming remain highly controversial. Here we explore the evolution of Pacific horizontal and vertical thermal gradients over the past 30 kyr by compiling 340 sea surface and 7 subsurface temperature records, as well as one new ocean heat content record. Our records reveal that La Niña-like conditions dominated during the deglaciation as a result of the more intense warming in the western Pacific warm pool. Both the subsurface temperature and ocean heat content in the warm pool rose earlier than the sea surface temperature, and in phase with South Pacific subsurface temperature and orbital precession, implying that heat exchange between the tropical upper water column and the extratropical Southern Ocean facilitated faster warming in the western Pacific. Our study underscores the key role of the thermal coupling between the warm pool and the Southern Ocean and its relevance for future global warming.

Probable signature whistle production in Atlantic white‐sided (Lagenorhynchus acutus) and short‐beaked common (Delphinus delphis) dolphins near Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Probable signature whistle production in Atlantic white‐sided (<i>Lagenorhynchus acutus</i>) and short‐beaked common (<i>Delphinus delphis</i>) dolphins near Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Exploration of Atmosphere‐Only Model Deficiencies in Reproducing the 1992–2011 Pacific Trade Wind Acceleration

AbstractA robust simulation of tropical Pacific Ocean decadal‐scale zonal wind stress trends can increase the confidence in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise, yet coupled general circulation models simulate weaker trends than observed. When forced with observed sea surface temperatures, the atmospheric component of these models still simulates a weaker zonal wind stress trend during 1992–2008 (and 1992–2011) than observed. Yet, this decadal wind trend bias is not evident at the 850 hPa level. We show that the modelled wind trend bias is related to deficiencies in monthly wind stress variability. Furthermore, the strength of the connectivity between the surface and 850 hPa was also an indicator of the wind stress trend. Models that simulated a more realistic wind stress trend tend to simulate a stronger Pacific zonal sea level pressure gradient intensification than observed and a South Pacific Convergence Zone shift like that observed.

Key regions in the modulation of seasonal GMST variability by analyzing the two hottest years: 2016 vs. 2020

Following the end of the decadal-warming-hiatus in 2016, the global mean surface temperature (GMST) abruptly showed a 3 yr warming slowdown and peaked again in 2020, overturning the conventional concept that highest GMST occurs with strong El Niño. The high GMST in 2016 was controlled by secular trend and annual variability (ANV). However, the dominator of the sharp GMST rise in 2020 was SCT alone because the ANVs in different seasons canceled each other out in 2020, contributing little to the annual mean GMST. By analyzing the two hottest years, 2016 and 2020, we identified that seasonally varying ANVs are mainly located in Eurasia, North America, the Arctic Ocean, and the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. Dominance by surface temperatures over the four crucial regions on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) GMST variations was also observed in 73% of the years during 1982–2021, indicating a potential opportunity to improve the S2S GMST forecast.

Analysis of global trends of total column water vapour from multiple years of OMI observations

Abstract. In this study, we investigate trends in total column water vapour (TCWV) retrieved from measurements of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for the time range between January 2005 to December 2020. The trend analysis reveals, on global average, an annual increase in the TCWV amount of approximately +0.054 kg m−2 yr−1 or +0.21 % yr−1. After the application of a Z test (to the significance level of 5 %) and a false discovery rate (FDR) test to the results of the trend analysis, mainly positive trends remain, in particular over the northern subtropics in the eastern Pacific. Combining the relative TCWV trends with trends in air temperature, we also analyse trends in relative humidity (RH) on the local scale. This analysis reveals that the assumption of temporally invariant RH is not always fulfilled, as we obtain increasing and decreasing RH trends over large areas of the ocean and land surface and also observe that these trends are not limited to arid and humid regions, respectively. For instance, we find decreasing RH trends over the (humid) tropical Pacific Ocean in the region of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Interestingly, these decreasing RH trends in the tropical Pacific Ocean coincide well with decreasing trends in precipitation. Moreover, by combining the trends of TCWV, surface temperature, and precipitation, we derive trends for the global water vapour turnover time (TUT) of approximately +0.02 d yr−1. Also, we obtain a TUT rate of change of around 8.4 % K−1, which is 2 to 3 times higher than the values obtained in previous studies.

Effects of decadal climate variability on spatiotemporal distribution of Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna population

Spatial variations in tuna population and abundance are strongly linked to large-scale climate fluctuations, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). However, the mechanisms underlying the association of climate indices with yellowfin tuna (YFT) abundance and habitat preference remain unclear. We analysed long-term longline fishery data for YFT and oceanic climate variability index data for 1971–2018. The standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Indo-Pacific Ocean YFT was higher during negative AMO and positive PDO phases. In tropical Pacific Ocean, the trend of YFT habitat preference exhibited seesaw patterns because of the distinct environmental factors influenced by the PDO phase. The PDO changed the environmental parameters throughout the tropical Indian Ocean such that the habitat preference of YFT remained consistent throughout. However, the variations in habitat suitability did not correspond to the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT throughout the Pacific Ocean during AMO events. Moreover, the changes in habitat suitability had a positive periodicity of 8–16 years with AMO in the Indian Ocean, but revealed opposite trends with the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT. Our results provide sufficient information to distinguish the variations between PDO phase changing and YFT standardized CPUE/ habitat preference. Furthermore, the AMO phase shift period 60–100 years longer than that of the PDO (20–30 years), and models employing time series of fishery and environmental data must be extended the time period of our study to make the AMO match the fishery data more complete.

Impact of a long-lived anticyclonic mesoscale eddy on seawater anomalies in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean: a composite analysis from hydrographic measurements, sea level altimetry data, and reanalysis model products

Abstract. Using observational data, satellite altimeters, and reanalysis model products, we have investigated eddy-induced seawater anomalies and heat and salt transport in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean. An eddy detection algorithm (EDA) was used to identify eddy formation at the Mexican Tehuantepec Gulf (TT) in July 2018 during an unusually strong summer wind event. The eddy separated from the coast with a mean translation velocity of 11 cm s−1 and a mean radius of 115 km and traveled 2050–2400 km westwards off the Central American coast, where it was followed at approx 114∘ W and 11∘ N for oceanographic observation between April and May 2019. The in situ observations show that the major eddy impacts are restricted to the upper 300 m of the water column and are traceable down to 1500 m water depth. In the eddy core at 92 m water depth an extreme positive temperature anomaly of 8.2 ∘C, a negative salinity anomaly of −0.78 psu, a positive fluorescence anomaly of +0.8 mg m−3, and a positive dissolved oxygen concentration anomaly of 137 µmol kg−1 are observed. Compared with annual climatological averages in 2018, the water trapped within the eddy is estimated to transport an average positive westward zonal heat anomaly of 85×1012 W and an average westward negative salt anomaly of -2.1×106 kg s−1. The heat transport is the equivalent of 1 % of the total annual zonal eddy-induced heat transport at this latitude in the Pacific Ocean. Understanding the dynamics of long-lived mesoscale eddies that may reach the seafloor in this region of the Pacific Ocean is especially important in light of potential deep-sea mining activities that are being targeted on this area.

Second Baroclinic Mode Rossby Waves in the South Indian Ocean

Abstract Many previous studies of midlatitude Rossby waves have examined satellite altimetry data, which reflect variability near the surface above the pycnocline. Argo float observations provide hydrographic data in the upper 2000 m, which likely monitor subsurface variability below the pycnocline. This study examines the variability in meridional velocity at midlatitudes and investigates Rossby waves in the southern Indian Ocean using an ocean reanalysis generated by a 4DVAR method. The results show two modes of variability. One is trapped near the surface and propagates to the west at a phase speed close to that of first baroclinic mode Rossby waves. This mode is representative of variability detected by satellite altimetry. The other mode has a local peak in amplitude at ∼600-m depth and propagates to the west at a phase speed 3 times slower than the first baroclinic mode. Such slowly propagating signals are observed globally, but they are largest in amplitude in the southern Indian Ocean and consistent in phase speed with the second baroclinic mode. Results from numerical experiments using an OGCM show that zonal winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean related to ENSO are the primary driver of slowly propagating signals in the southern Indian Ocean. Wind forcing in the tropical Pacific Ocean drives a surface trapped jet that propagates via the Indonesian Archipelago and excites subsurface variability in meridional velocity in the southern Indian Ocean. In addition, surface heat flux and meridional winds near the west coast of Australia can drive subsurface variability. Significance Statement Many previous studies of midlatitude Rossby waves have used satellite altimetry measurements, which reflect variability in the upper few hundred meters of the ocean. Argo float observations have provided in situ hydrographic observations in the upper 2000 m, and these enable us to examine subsurface variability with high reliability. In this study, we used output from an ocean reanalysis, which assimilates in situ observations, and found that the meridional velocity below the surface (∼600-m depth) of the southern Indian Ocean propagates at a phase speed 3 times slower than that of surface variability. These slowly propagating signals can be of climatic importance because of their possible impact on meridional heat transport. We also discuss the driving force of these slowly propagating signals.

Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018

Abstract Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to identify the local and global climate patterns in the preceding seasons that influence how the burned summer forest area in California varies year-to-year. We find that a dry atmosphere, high temperatures, dry soils, less snowpack, low precipitation, subsiding air, and high pressure centered west of California all correlate significantly with large summer burned area as far back as the preceding January. These climate anomalies occur as part of a hemispheric scale pattern with weak connections to the tropical Pacific Ocean. We also describe the climate anomalies preceding the extreme and record-breaking burned-area year of 2018, and how these compared with the more general patterns found. These results give important insight into how well and how early it might be possible to predict the severity of an upcoming summer wildfire season in California.

Investigating the response of hydrological processes to El Niño events using a 100-year dataset from the western Pacific Ocean

Study regionWestern Tropical Pacific Ocean (Philippines) Study focusEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates rainfall amount variability and, by extension, river discharge for the Philippines on seasonal to interannual temporal scales. The El Niño phase of ENSO considerably decreases rainfall amounts on a seasonal scale with varying degrees of heterogeneity across the Philippines. The hydrological response of El Niño on an interannual scale is relatively immature. To investigate the hydrological response, a composite time series of 29 rainfall and 61 river discharge stations spanning 1901–2020 and 1908–2017 C.E., respectively, and covering the four major climate types in the Philippines were critically assessed. New hydrological insights for the regionOur statistical analyses results of a 100-year dataset demonstrate a decreasing trend compared to pre-El Niño conditions for both river discharge and rainfall. The median response suggests the decreasing trend can last up to 7 years regardless of climate type. Rainfall amount returns to pre-El Niño conditions faster than river discharge. The sign (increasing or decreasing) of the hydrological response is either decreasing, if at conception of an El Niño phase, or increasing, if at the termination of an El Niño phase. Our results have implications for water resource management and water resiliency of island nations that strongly rely on the timely delivery of rainfall amount. Further, our results highlight the legacy effects of El Niño events that likely initiate long-term droughts for island nations in western tropical Pacific Ocean.

Length-Based Assessment Methods for the Conservation of a Pelagic Shark, Carcharhinus falciformis from the Tropical Pacific Ocean

The silky shark, Carcharhinus falciformis is one of the most heavily exploited sharks, being the main by-catch species in both tuna longline and purse-seine fisheries in tropical waters worldwide. Despite this severe exploitation, little is known about the species’ life history and population status. Silky sharks, like many other sharks, exhibit slow growth and low fecundity, indicating the urgency of developing assessment studies to aid in the implementation of conservation plans for their stocks. Because information on the catch and effort of this species is scarce, some length-based data-limited methods were applied in the present study to provide estimates of the status of the tropical Pacific silky shark population. As evident from the LBSPR analysis, the current spawning potential ratio (SPR) was found to be below the target reference point of SPR 40% and slightly above the limit reference point of SPR 20%. In addition, the LBB model also confirmed that this stock’s status is overfished with relatively low biomass levels. Furthermore, both models showed estimates of size selectivity at 50% and 95% that were lower than the estimated size at sexual maturity. In conclusion, the data-limited models developed in this study indicated that the silky shark stock in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be at risk of further decline. Additionally, the results show that growth and recruitment overfishing may be occurring in the silky shark’s population calling for immediate intensification of monitoring programs for these sharks as a pre-requisite to develop efficient management and conservation plans in the Pacific Ocean.

Early Summer Temperature Variation Recorded by Earlywood Width in the Northern Boundary of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata in Central China and Its Linkages to the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Simple SummaryThis paper analyzed the different relationships between earlywood and latewood as well as total tree-ring growth and the climate factors and reconstructed 106 years of May–June mean temperature (TMJ) in the Tongbai Mountains based on the earlywood width chronology of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata. It also analyzed the linkages to the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This paper found that earlywood width chronology has better response to the climate factors than latewood width and total tree-ring width. This study also found that the main limiting factors that restrained radial growth of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata in the Tongbai Mountains were May–June mean temperature and mean maximum temperature. The reconstructed TMJ series have a better reliability and are significantly negatively correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean and are significantly positively correlated with SST over the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Finally, the periodic fluctuations of TMJ in the Tongbai Mountains might be related to the quasi-biennial interannual oscillation of SST over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region (QBO). The results of this study are significant for further understanding and exploring forest growth and climate change in the climatic transition zone.The Tongbai Mountains are an ecologically sensitive region to climate change, where there lies a climatic transitional zone from a subtropical to a warm–temperate monsoon climate. The northern boundary of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata is here; thus, climate information is well recorded in its tree rings. Based on developed earlywood width (EWW), latewood width (LWW) and total ring width (RW) chronologies (time period: 1887–2014 year) of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata in the Tongbai Mountains in central China, this paper analyzed characteristics of these chronologies and correlations between these chronologies and climate factors. The correlation results showed that earlywood width chronology contains more climate information than latewood width chronology and total ring width chronology, and mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in May–June were the main limiting factors for radial growth of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata. The highest significant value in all correlation analyses is −0.669 (p < 0.05) between earlywood width chronology and May–June mean temperature (TMJ) in the pre-mutation period (1958–2005) based on mutating in 2006. Thus, this paper reconstructed May–June mean temperature using earlywood width chronology from 1901 to 2005 (reliable period of earlywood width chronology is 1901–2014). The reconstructed May–June mean temperature experienced eight warmer periods and eight colder periods and also showed 2–3a cycle change over the past 105 years. The spatial correlation showed that the reconstructed series was representative of the May–June mean temperature variation in central and eastern China and significant positive/negative correlation with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean from the previous October to the current June. This also indicated that May–June mean temperature periodic fluctuations might be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. The results of this study have extended and supplemented the meteorological records of the Tongbai Mountains and have a guiding significance for forest tending and management in this area.