Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

Interannual variations of westward extension area of western Pacific subtropical high and its relationship with precipitation in East Asia

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is viewed as an important part of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its western boundary location significantly affects regional weather and climate. Based on characteristics of the WPSH western boundary in boreal summer, this study proposes a new index of WPSH, the westward extension area (WEA) index, defined as the area enclosed by the 587 dagpm contour in the region (10°–50°N, 105°–130°E), which can reasonably describe the area variations of WPSH when approaching and landing coastal regions. Compared with the canonical area index of WPSH, the WEA index can more effectively represent the WPSH-associated atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport, and convective activities in the boreal-summer East Asia-northwestern Pacific. A big WEA index significantly indicates flood in the middle reaches of Yangtze River basin and drought in South China. The WEA of WPSH has a significant connection with precipitation in Maritime Continent, due to the convection-circulation interaction in Philippine Sea. There, the WPSH-related sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and rainfall deficiency can excite Rossby waves, which induces the anomalous anticyclone development and the westward stretching and intensifying of WPSH that in turn further reduces rainfall in Philippine Sea. Moreover, the WEA index is significantly modulated by the preceding El Niño-type and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies, which may provide a highly predictable indicator of the continental precipitation in East Asia.

The Enhancement of the Summer Precipitation Teleconnection between India and the Northern Part of Eastern China after the Late 1990s

Abstract As subsystems of the Asian summer monsoon, summer precipitation variations in India and the northern part of eastern China (NEC) are physically connected. This study noted that the connection has been significantly enhanced after 1999 compared to 1979–98, which is due to the strengthened water vapor transportation connection between the two regions. That is associated with interdecadal variations of the combined effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH) and the Indo-Pacific Walker cell. Against the background of La Niña, the strengthened NWPSH and Indo-Pacific Walker cell favor water vapor transport to India and the NEC since 1999. Accordingly, summer precipitation in the two regions increases simultaneously, leading to the enhancement of the summer precipitation teleconnection between them. In addition, the influence of TIO SSTAs and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on Indo-Pacific circulations decreases, which further enhances the relative importance of ENSO on the summer precipitation in the two regions. However, during 1979–98, La Niña SSTAs has weak effects on the NWPSH and Indo-Pacific Walker cell, the negative TIO SSTAs significantly weaken NWPSH, and the negative IOD also obstructs the westward extension of the Indo-Pacific Walker cell. Circulations and water vapor transportation related to the Indian Ocean and NEC summer precipitation are inconsistent, resulting in a weak precipitation teleconnection between them. The above conclusions are also validated by extreme case analysis and CMIP6 models. Significance Statement This paper mainly studies the influences of different types of ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTAs on the interdecadal variations of the summer precipitation relationship between India and the northern part of eastern China (NEC). We find that the summer precipitation relationship between them is strengthened again after 1999, which deepens the understanding of summer precipitation in Asia and has great significance for improving dynamic models’ prediction skills. The interdecadal variations of the combined effects of the Indian and Pacific Oceans are the fundamental reasons for the interdecadal variations of precipitation relationships, which promotes the understanding of interactions of different oceans and their impacts on Asian climate.

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. In addition, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Enhanced Impact of Autumn North Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Subsequent Winter Snowfall in Northeast China after 2001

Abstract This study reveals that the relationship between autumn north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and Northeast China’s winter snowfall (NECWS) undergoes a remarkable interdecadal enhancement after 2001. Previous research confirmed that the relationship between the NTA SST anomaly and atmospheric circulation experienced interdecadal changes after the 2000s and suggested various reasons for this phenomenon. During 1961–2000, the NTA SST anomaly has a significantly positive correlation with other oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), and the latter modulates the former’s impact on atmospheric circulations over the Eurasian continent with a cancelling effect, which results in a weaker relationship of the NTA SST anomaly and NECWS. In contrast, the warm NTA SST anomaly is relatively independent from other oceans during 2001–20, and it proves to be the forcing factor for NECWS since its solo influence on the winter atmospheric circulations initiated from the North Atlantic to East Asia is more robust, featuring the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and a downstream quasi-barotropic Rossby wave train over the mid- to high latitudes of Eurasian continent. Accordingly, together with the deepened East Asian trough and the strongly northward transported humid and warm air from the western Pacific, the local significantly enhanced ascending motions with cooling temperature favor much more NECWS. The linear baroclinic model simulates the effects of NTA and TIO SST anomalies on winter atmospheric circulations, corroborating the aforementioned results. Such results can be used for the prediction of NECWS with respect to the precursor of the autumn NTA SST anomaly.

Possible Linkage Between Tropical Indian Ocean SST Anomalies and the Date of First and Last Tropical Cyclones Landfalling in the Chinese Mainland

Bases on the NCEP / NCAR reanalysis products, HadISST dataset, and data of tropical cyclone (TC)landfalling in the Chinese mainland during 1960-2019, the possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode andIndian Ocean basin (IOB) mode on the last-TC-landfall date (LLD) and first-TC-landfall date (FLD), respectively, areinvestigated in this study. The LLD is in significantly negative correlation with autumn IOD on the interannual time-scale and their association is independent of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The LLD tends to be earlier when theIOD is positive while becomes later when the IOD is negative. An anomalous lower-level anticyclone is located aroundthe Philippines during October-November, resulting from the change of Walker circulation over the tropical Indo-westPacific Ocean forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies related to a positive IOD event. The Philippinesanticyclone anomaly suppresses TCs formation there and prevents TCs from landfalling in the Chinese mainland due tothe anomalous westerly steering flows over southeast China during October-November, agreeing well with the earlierLLD. However, the robust connection between spring IOB and FLD depends on ENSO episodes in preceding winter.There is an anticyclonic anomaly around the Philippines caused by the tropical SST anomalies through modulating theWalker circulation during May-June when the IOB is warming in the El Niño decaying phase. Correspondingly, the TCsgenesis is less frequent near the Philippines and the mid-level steering flows associated with the expanded westernPacific subtropical high are disadvantageous for TCs moving towards southeast China and making landfall during May-June, in accordance with the later FLD. By contrast, cooling IOB condition in spring of a La Niña decaying year andnegative IOD cases during autumn could produce a completely reversed atmospheric circulation response, leading to anearlier FLD and a later LLD over the Chinese mainland, respectively.

Possible Causes of Extremely Warm Early Summer in North China During Cold and Warm Periods

The abnormal characteristics of extremely warm early summer (EWES) in North China under different decadal backgrounds were contrastively analyzed. Their relationships with upper- and lower-level atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are also discussed. Results show that temperature anomalies of EWES in North China are overall higher than normal in both cold (1961–1993) and warm (1994–2019) periods, but the anomalies of the latter are much higher than that of the former. EWES in North China is directly related to the circulation lying between 40° and 50°N in the middle troposphere, which leads to positive temperature anomalies occurring from the bottom to the upper level of the troposphere together with a high anomaly trend tilting northward. The persistent and strong Eurasian continental high (ECH) and weak Northeast China cold vortex (NECV) activity, together with the strong western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) are major factors that directly lead to EWES in North China. ECH and WPSH are stronger and larger, and NECV are weaker and more northward in the warm period than in the cold period. In addition, the positive SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Kuroshio area are favorable for the stronger and larger ECH and WPSH as well as the weaker and more northward NECV, causing strong anticyclonic and downward circulation system controlling North China, resulting in the extremely warm temperatures there. The joint impact of the positive tropical Indian Ocean SSTAs and the Kuroshio region SSTAs is more significant during warm than cold periods, resulting in much stronger EWES in North China during warm periods.

What Caused the Unprecedented Absence of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones in July 2020?

AbstractWhile the Atlantic basin experienced the busiest hurricane season in 2020, the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) was also record‐setting with no tropical cyclone (TC) formation in July 2020, which is the first time in available historical records. The unprecedented absence of TC formation is consistent with the extremely unfavorable large‐scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the WNP, which results mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. Numerical experiments suggest that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies, which were warmest in July 2020 since 1965, play a dominant role in the anomalous WNP anticyclonic circulation, while the increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic SST warming also have important contributions. This study suggests that the configuration of SST anomalies across the tropical basins is quite important to the WNP TC activity.

Asymmetric relationship between ENSO and the tropical Indian Ocean summer SST anomalies

AbstractDuring the summer following El Niño, a basin-wide sea surface temperature (SST) warming takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), exerting profound influences on the Asian summer monsoon. This is an important source of seasonal predictability for the Asian summer monsoon. Based on observations, however, the present study finds that the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the TIO SST anomalies during the decaying summer is asymmetric with a much weaker relationship between La Niña and the TIO SST anomalies relative to El Niño. The analyses show that this asymmetric relationship can be explained by the asymmetries in initial TIO SST, oceanic Rossby wave in the southern Indian Ocean and ENSO decaying rate. In contrast to El Niño events, La Niña events tend to have a stronger initial TIO warming and a less peak intensity with a weaker oceanic Rossby wave response in the southern Indian Ocean. On the other hand, La Niña events tend to decay more slowly with the persistent SST cooling over the central equatorial Pacific in the following summer. The equatorial Pacific SST cooling would induce an anomalous anticyclone via a Gill-type Rossby wave response, weakening the positive feedback between the anomalous cyclone spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans and the TIO summer basin-wide SST cooling. These results have important implications for the climate predictability of the Indian Ocean and Asian summer monsoon.

Possible Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on the Proportion of Rapidly Intensifying Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones during the Extended Boreal Summer

AbstractThis study examines the possible impact of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the proportion of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (PRITC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the extended boreal summer (July–November). There is a robust interannual association (r= 0.46) between TIO SSTAs and WNP PRITC during 1979–2018. Composite analyses between years with warm and cold TIO SSTAs confirm a significant impact of TIO SSTA on WNP PRITC, with PRITC over the WNP basin being 50% during years with warm TIO SSTAs and 37% during years with cold TIO SSTAs. Tropical cyclone heat potential appears to be one of the most important factors in modulating the interannual change of PRITC over the WNP with a secondary role from midlevel moisture changes. Interannual changes in these large-scale factors respond to SSTA differences characterized by a tropics-wide warming, implying a possible global warming amplification on WNP PRITC. The possible footprint of global warming amplification of the TIO is deduced from 1) a significant correlation between TIO SSTAs and global mean SST (GMSST) and a significant linear increasing trend of GMSST and TIO SSTAs, and 2) an accompanying small difference of PRITC (~8%) between years with detrended warm and cold TIO SSTAs compared to the difference of PRITC (~13%) between years with nondetrended warm and cold TIO SSTAs. Global warming may contribute to increased TCHP, which is favorable for rapid intensification, but increased vertical wind shear is unfavorable for TC genesis, thus amplifying WNP PRITC.

Interdecadal Change in the Relationship of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis Frequency to Tropical Indian and North Atlantic Ocean SST in Early 1990s

AbstractThe present study investigates reasons of interdecadal changes in the relationship between the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and tropical North Atlantic Ocean (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) in early‐1990s. It is found that the above interdecadal changes are related to changes in the coherence of TIO and TNA SST variations with equatorial central‐eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) SST variations. During 1970s through mid‐1980s, TIO and TNA SSTs tend to vary in phase with EPO SST on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. The combined effects of TIO and EPO SST anomalies induce opposite environment and TC changes in southeastern and northwestern WNP, leading to a weak correlation of basin‐wide WNP TC and TIO SST. Similarly, TNA and EPO SST anomalies induce opposite environment and TC changes in northeastern and southeastern WNP and thus basin‐wide WNP TC‐TNA SST correlation is weak. During late 1990s through early 2000s, TIO and EPO SST variations have a weak coherence due to their opposite relations on interannual and interdecadal time scales. TIO SST anomalies alone induce anomalous circulation over most WNP so that basin‐wide WNP TC‐TIO SST relationship is strong. The interannual and interdecadal SST variations remain coherent in TNA and EPO but with a switch of sign in their relationship in early 1990s. TNA and EPO SST anomalies induce same environment and TC changes in northeastern and southeastern WNP, and thus, basin‐wide WNP TC‐TNA SST relationship is strong. Numerical model experiments validate the importance of coherent regional SST anomalies.

Seasonal predictability of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in the North American multimodel ensemble

In this study, we investigate the predictability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) using the recently released North American Multimodel Ensemble dataset (NMME). We place emphasis on the predictability of two interannual variability modes: the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). If defined by a 0.5 correlation skill, we find that the statistically skilful predictions correspond to an approximately 9- and 4-month lead for the two modes, respectively. We then applied a newly-developed predictability framework, i.e. Average Predictability Time method (APT), to explore the most potentially predictable mode (APT1) for the TIO SSTA. The derived APT1s correlate significantly to the IOBM and IOD, but are also characterised by several significant differences, which implies that there is a close link between the variability-related modes and the predictability-defined modes. Further analysis reveals that the predictability source of the IOBM-related APT1 originates from ENSO-induced thermocline variation over the southwest Indian Ocean, whereas wind-driven upwelling near Sumatra dominates IOD-related APT1. This study provides insights into the understanding of TIO SSTA predictability and offers a practical approach to obtain predictable targets to improve the TIO seasonal prediction skill.

Indian Ocean SST modes and Their Impacts as Simulated in BCC_CSM1.1(m) and HadGEM3

The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) show two dominant modes at interannual time scales, referred to as the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and dipole mode (IOD). Recent studies have shown that the IOBM and IOD not only affect the local climate, but also induce remarkable influences in East Asia via teleconnections. In this study, we assess simulations of the IOBM and IOD, as well as their teleconnections, using the operational seasonal prediction models from the Met Office (HadGEM3) and Beijing Climate Center [BCC CSM1.1(m)]. It is demonstrated that the spatial patterns and seasonal cycles are generally reproduced by the control simulations of BCC CSM1.1(m) and HadGEM3, although spectra biases exist. The relationship between the TIO SSTA and El Nino is successfully simulated by both models, including the persistent IOBM warming following El Nino and the IOD–El Nino interactions. BCC CSM1.1(m) and HadGEM3 are capable of simulating the observed local impact of the IOBM, such as the strengthening of the South Asian high. The influences of the IOBM on Yangtze River rainfall are also captured well by both models, although this teleconnection is slightly weaker in BCC CSM1.1(m) due to the underestimation of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high. The local effect of the IOD on East African rainfall is reproduced by both models. However, the remote control of the IOD on rainfall over southwestern China is not clear in either model. It is shown that the realistic simulations of TIO SST modes and their teleconnections give rise to the source of skillful seasonal predictions over China.

Impact of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon on the Indian Ocean Dipole

This paper investigates the impact of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) on the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). The results show that the SCSSM has a significant positive relationship with the IOD over the boreal summer [June–August (JJA)] and fall [September–November (SON)]. When the SCSSM is strong, the enhanced southwesterly winds that bring more water vapor to the western North Pacific (WNP) lead to surplus precipitation in the WNP, inducing anomalous ascending there. Consequently, the anomalous descending branch of the SCSSM Hadley circulation (SCSSMHC) develops over the Maritime Continent (MC), favoring deficit precipitation in situ. The precipitation dipole over the WNP and MC as well as the enhanced SCSSMHC leads to intensification of the southeasterly anomalies off Sumatra and Java, which then contributes to the negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through the positive wind–evaporation–SST and wind–thermocline–SST (Bjerknes) feedbacks. Consequently, a positive IOD develops because of the increased zonal gradient of the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies and vice versa. The SCSSM has a peak correlation with the IOD when the former leads the latter by three months. This implies that a positive IOD can persist from JJA to SON and reach its mature phase within the frame of the positive Bjerknes feedback in SON. In addition, the local and remote SST anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans have a slight influence on the relationship between the SCSSM and precipitation dipole over the WNP and MC.

A new perspective of intensified impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Modoki on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific around 1990s

Previous study detected an intensified impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) after the early 1990s and attributed it to an expansion in areal coverage of the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) SST anomalies. This study identifies the contribution of SST anomalies in several other regions to this inter‐decadal change in the relationship between ENSO Modoki SST and the WNP TC genesis. Before the early 1990s, the positive ECP SST anomalies induce an anomalous lower‐level cyclone and consequently an increase in the TC genesis frequency over the southern part of the WNP, and the positive ECP and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies together induce an anomalous lower‐level anticyclone and accordingly a decrease in the TC genesis frequency over the northern part of the WNP. As such, the relationship between the ECP SST and the WNP TC genesis frequency is weak. After the early 1990s, the positive ECP SST anomalies with a large areal coverage induce a large anomalous lower‐level cyclone covering most of the WNP and thus an increase in the TC genesis frequency over the WNP. Meantime, the tropical northern Atlantic and western South Pacific SST anomalies during spring enhance the succeeding summer–autumn WNP atmospheric circulation response to the ECP SST anomalies through an Atlantic–Pacific teleconnection and a wind‐evaporation positive feedback, respectively. This strengthens the relationship between the ECP SST and the WNP TC genesis frequency.

Influences of two types of El Niño event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Based on the HadISST1 and NCEP datasets, we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Nino event (CP-EL) and eastern Pacific El Nino event (EP-EL) on the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean. Considering the remote effect of Indian Ocean warming, we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate. Results show that during the El Nino developing year of EP-EL, cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean. At the end of that autumn, all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs. However, considering the statistical significance, more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year. For further research, EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (EPI-EL) and CP El Nino accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (CPI-EL) events are classified. With the remote effects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies, the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific. For the EPI-EL developing year, large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May, and persist to the autumn of the El Nino decaying year. However, for the CPI-EL, weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Nino decaying spring. Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, distinct zonal SST gradient, atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Nino decaying years. Specifically, the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years, can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean. The atmospheric heating caused by this precipitation anomaly emulates atmospheric Kelvin waves accompanied by low level easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific. As a result, a zonal SST gradient with a warm anomaly in the west and a cold anomaly in the east of Northwest Pacific is generated locally. Furthermore, the atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies over the Northwest Pacific are strengthened again in the decaying summer of EPI-EL. Affected by the local Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) positive feedback, the suppressed East Asian summer rainfall then persists to the late autumn during EPI-EL decaying year, which is much longer than that of CPI-EL.

Enhancement of the spring East China precipitation response to tropical sea surface temperature variability

The boreal spring relationship between variabilities of East China precipitation (ECP) and tropical Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during the period 1951–2014 is investigated in this study. The results show that the leading mode of the ECP variability exhibits an enhanced response to the anomalous El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like SST after the late 1970s, when the SST underwent a decadal change, with two positive centers over the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To further understand the relative roles of the ETP and TIO SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the variability of ECP after the late 1970s, partial regression and correlation methods are used. It is found that, without the contribution of the TIO, ETP SSTA plays a limited role in the variability of ECP after the late 1970s; comparatively, a significant correlation between TIO SST and ECP is identified during the same period, when the ETP signal is linearly removed. Physical analyses show that, after the late 1970s, the TIO SSTA affects East Asian atmospheric circulation in two ways: by exciting a zonal wave-train pattern over the mid-latitude Eurasian Continent and by inducing anomalous convection over the Maritime Continent. Via these two mechanisms, the TIO SST variability results in an anomalous East Asian trough and vertical motion over East China and consequently leads to anomalous precipitation over the region. The physical processes linking the ECP and TIO SST are confirmed by an atmospheric general circulation model experiment forced with idealized TIO warming.

Two Distinctive Processes for Abnormal Spring to Summer Transition over the South China Sea

The period from April to June signifies the transition from spring to summer over the South China Sea (SCS). The present study documents two distinct processes for abnormal spring to summer transition over the SCS. One process is related to large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. During spring of La Niña decaying years, negative SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) and the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) coexist with positive SST anomalies in the tropical western North Pacific. Negative ECP SST anomalies force an anomalous Walker circulation, negative southwestern TIO SST anomalies induce anomalous cross-equatorial flows from there, and positive tropical western North Pacific SST anomalies produce a Rossby wave–type response to the west. Together, they contribute to enhanced convection and an anomalous lower-level cyclone over the SCS, leading to an advanced transition to summer there. The other process is related to regional air–sea interactions around the Maritime Continent. Preceding positive ECP SST anomalies induce anomalous descent around the Maritime Continent, leading to SST increase in the SCS and southeast TIO. An enhanced convection region moves eastward over the south TIO during spring and reaches the area northwest of Australia in May. This enhances descent over the SCS via an anomalous cross-equatorial overturning circulation and contributes to further warming in the SCS. The SST warming in turn induces convection over the SCS, leading to an accelerated transition to summer. Analysis shows that the above two processes are equally important during 1979–2015.

Response of the tropical Indian Ocean SST to decay phase of La Niña and associated processes

Delayed impact of El Niño on Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations and associated physical mechanisms are well documented by several studies. However, TIO SST evolution during the decay phase of La Niña and related processes are not adequately addressed before. Strong cooling associated with La Niña decay over the TIO could influence climate over the Indian Oceanic rim including Indian summer monsoon circulation and remotely northwest Pacific circulation. Thus understanding the TIO basin-wide cooling and related physical mechanisms during decaying La Niña years is important. Composite analyses revealed that negative SST anomalies allied to La Niña gradually dissipate from its mature phase (winter) till subsequent summer in central and eastern Pacific. In contrast, magnitude of negative SST anomalies in TIO, induced by La Niña, starts increasing from winter and attains their peak values in early summer. It is found that variations in heat flux play an important role in SST cooling over the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and part of Arabian Sea from late winter to early summer during the decay phase of La Niña. Ocean dynamical processes are mainly responsible for the evolution of southern TIO SST cooling. Strong signals of westward propagating upwelling Rossby waves between 10°S to 20°S are noted throughout (the decaying phase of La Niña) spring and summer. Anomalous cyclonic wind stress curl to the south of the equator is responsible for triggering upwelling Rossby waves over the southeastern TIO. Further, upwelling Rossby waves are also apparent in the Arabian Sea from spring to summer and partly contributing to the SST cooling. Heat budget analysis reveals that negative SST/MLT (mixed layer temperature) anomalies over the Arabian Sea are mostly controlled by heat flux from winter to spring and vertical advection plays an important role during early summer. Vertical and horizontal advection terms primarily contribute to the SST cooling anomalies over southern TIO and the Bay of Bengal cooling is primarily dominated by heat flux. Further we have discussed influence of TIO cooling on local rainfall variations.

Tropical Indian Ocean response to the decay phase of El Niño in a coupled model and associated changes in south and east-Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

This study investigates the response of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) to El Nino decay phase and its impacts on South and East Asian summer monsoon in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 free run. The TIO basin-wide warming induced by El Nino at its peak phase (winter; DJF) and next spring (MAM + 1) are reasonably well captured by the model but with weak magnitude. This TIO basin-wide SST warming persists until summer (JJA + 1) and exert strong impact on summer monsoon rainfall and circulation as revealed in the observations. However, TIO SST anomalies are very weak in the model during the El Nino decaying summers. Though El Nino decay is delayed by 2 months in the model, decay of TIO SST warming is faster than the observations. Anomalous latent heat loss from ocean and a feeble southern TIO Rossby waves associated with weak wind response to El Nino are mainly accountable for rapid decay of TIO SST warming by mid-summer in the model. This suggests that JJA + 1 TIO SST response to El Nino decay phase in the model is poorly represented. The model is able to capture the SST anomalies associated with the northwest Pacific anticyclone at the peak phase of El Nino but fail to maintain that during the decay phase in MAM + 1 and JJA + 1. It is found that precipitation and circulation anomalies associated with TIO SST warming over the South and East Asian regions are disorganized in the model during the decay phase of El Nino. Rainfall anomalies over the southwest TIO, west coast of India, northern flank of northwest Pacific anticyclone and over Japan in JJA + 1 are poorly represented by the model. Analysis of lower troposphere stream function and rotational wind component reveals that northwest Pacific anticyclone shifted far eastward to the date line in the model during JJA + 1 unlike in the observations. Anomalous divergence observed over the western TIO and convergence in the northwest Pacific are absent in the model during JJA + 1. Extension of anomalous tropospheric warming from TIO region to equatorial western Pacific is also very weak in the model due to poor representation of TIO SSTs and the subsequent absence of any Kelvin wave response. Anomalous Walker circulation persisted from DJF to JJA + 1 due to El Nino late decay in the model unlike in the observations. This is also found to be responsible for the redundant changes in SST, rainfall and circulation over the Indo-western Pacific in the model. This study demonstrates that it is essential to represent the decay phase of El Nino and the associated TIO response accurately to have realistic simulations of summer monsoon in the decaying year.

Possible roles of regional SST anomalies in long-term changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoon rainfall

The present study investigates long-term changes in the relationship between interannual variations of the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) and the Australian monsoon rainfall (AMR) during the period 1900–2010. It is found that the relationship between austral summer AMR and the following boreal summer IMR (denoted as the AMR-IMR relationship) is negative during 1900–1930 and 1960–1990, but weak positive during 1930–1960. This long-term change in the AMR-IMR relationship is more prominent than the change in the relationship between boreal summer IMR and the succeeding austral summer AMR (denoted as the IMR-AMR relationship). The impact of regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies north of Australia on the IMR to AMR transition has experienced obvious changes during the analysis period. The long-term change in the IMR-AMR relationship is attributed to the change in impacts of regional SST anomalies north of Australia and their coherence with equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies. It is found that the east-west SST anomaly gradient in the North Indian Ocean is an important factor in the IMR variations. The impact of the North Indian Ocean zonal SST anomaly gradient on the AMR to IMR transition has changed largely during the analysis period. This appears to be a major reason for the long-term change in the AMR-IMR relationship. The changes in the impacts of regional SST anomaly or SST anomaly gradient are associated with changes in the amplitude of regional SST anomalies that are likely due to the change in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related SST anomaly pattern.