Triple Difference Model Research Articles

The Smart City Policy and Urban Public Service Delivery: A Quantitative Study Under the Background of COVID-19 Pandemic

The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the contributions of smart city policy (SCP) in promoting urban public service delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic. The effect of the pandemic on urban public service delivery is evaluated using a continuous difference-in-differences (DID) methodology based on a sample of 200 cities in China. On that basis, a triple-difference (DDD) model is built to evaluate the mitigation effect of SCP. The results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly hindered urban public service delivery. SCP is capable of significantly mitigating the negative effect of the pandemic on urban public service delivery. Moreover, cities with a larger scale and better location advantage are subjected to a more significant mitigation effect of SCP, as revealed by the heterogeneity analysis results. The findings of this study provide useful empirical evidence for policy-makers and urban planners and significant practical implications for facilitating smart city construction and boosting urban public service delivery in the future.

Driving green innovation: assessing the impact of environmental tax policies and green finance on heavily polluting industries

Purpose The purpose of this paper assess the impact of the green finance pilot reform on corporate green innovation, leveraging the establishment of the China green finance pilot reform in 2018 as a quasi-natural experiment. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates the effects of environmental policies on green innovation, utilising a substantial data set from Chinese A-share listed firms over the 2015–2019 period. Employing both double and triple difference models, it focuses on how tax reforms influence green patent filings among these firms. Findings The study confirms that environmental tax policies and green finance initiatives significantly boost green patent filings in pollution-intensive industries. Findings from the regression analysis show robust positive effects from these policies, supporting the idea that stringent environmental regulations can spur innovation by offsetting regulatory costs. Financial health indicators like asset logs and return on assets positively correlated with innovation, emphasising the importance of financial stability. In addition, increased RandD spending is linked to enhanced green innovation, highlighting that financial investment in research is crucial for overcoming innovation barriers. These insights are crucial for shaping policies that integrate sustainability into corporate practices. Originality/value This research contributes to the literature by highlighting traditional views on the economic burden of environmental taxes and demonstrating their role as significant drivers of innovation. It deepens insights into strategically optimising fiscal tools to promote environmentally sustainable economic activities. In addition, it offers a practical framework for policymakers to improve ecological outcomes through effective fiscal strategies.

Latent Information in the Evolving Energy Structure

Recent studies indicate that Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, characterized by its integration of information and communication technology attributes, exerts a multifaceted influence on the energy system. The authors employ Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Triple-Difference (DDD) models to investigate the effects of AI. The research initially demonstrates that AI may exhibit dual attributes of constraining energy structure. Specifically, the rapid development of AI tends to increase the proportion of fossil fuel-based electricity generation while optimizing the consumption of renewable energy. Furthermore, the degradation of energy structure stems from the surge in electricity consumption by AI, which the renewable energy consumption capacity is unable to satisfy. Lastly, industrial agglomeration effects and the construction of the digital economy have positive impacts on development of renewable energy; technological innovation aids in mitigating the negative shocks to the energy structure. This study provides a new perspective on the role of AI technology in energy transition.

The Great Lockdown and Economic Voting: Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on the 2020 US Presidential Election

The 2020 US presidential election was won by Democrat challenger Joseph Biden over Republican incumbent Donald Trump and was contested during the global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unemployment increased sharply during the pandemic but was followed by a large federal relief package. We investigate whether there was economic voting in the 2020 election, that is, whether the increased unemployment rate and the subsequent government response during the pandemic affected Trump’s vote negatively or positively overall. We examine 48 states (by excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and DC). Using a triple-differences (DDD) model (that is, examining changes in a candidate’s county-level vote-share depending on the change in unemployment and historical Republican-Democrat partisanship), we predict what would have happened if the increase in unemployment rate in between March and October 2020 had been more modest. Although many states show significant negative expected impacts on the Trump vote, we predict that only when when the unemployment rates experience little change during the pandemic would overall results have swung in the incumbent’s favour – and only then in Arizona and Georgia.

Does environmental regulation affect corporate environmental awareness? A quasi-natural experiment based on low-carbon city pilot policy

The low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policy, as an important measure for China to achieve its "dual carbon" goals, has attracted widespread attention regarding its implementation effects. However, no studies have yet focused on the impact of the LCCP policy on corporate environmental awareness. This study, based on data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2020, employs a triple difference model to evaluate the impact of the LCCP policy on corporate environmental awareness, filling the aforementioned gap in the literature. The results indicate that the LCCP policy can significantly enhance corporate environmental awareness, particularly in non-state-owned enterprises, enterprises in the growth stage, and those located in the eastern regions. The LCCP policy will compel corporations to enhance their environmental awareness by increasing the costs of environmental penalty and environmental governance. However, the analysis of economic consequences reveals that although corporate environmental awareness has improved, it has not directly translated into significant economic benefits or substantial environmental benefits. This may be indicative of a scenario where, in the short term, the cost effect of the LCCP policy outweighs the compensation effect. Nevertheless, the improvement in the quality of information disclosure can significantly mitigate these adverse economic consequences. This research not only enriches the academic outcomes related to environmental regulatory policies but also contributes to ensuring the effective achievement of green, low-carbon objective and the sustainable development of the economy and society.

Can Energy-Consuming Rights Trading Policies Help to Curb Air Pollution? Evidence from China

Energy-consuming rights trading policies (ECRTPs) represent a significant institutional innovation for China aimed at achieving the dual control targets of total energy consumption and energy consumption intensity. However, the effectiveness of these policies in curbing air pollution remains uncertain. This study treats ECRTPs as a quasi-natural experiment to empirically analyze their impact on air pollution, utilizing panel data encompassing 277 prefecture-level cities in China covering the period from 2011 to 2021. Analytical methods applied include a Difference-in-Differences model, a mediation effects model, and a triple differences model to explore the effects of ECRTPs on air pollution. The findings reveal that ECRTP can significantly suppress air pollution, and this conclusion remains valid even after conducting robustness tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that ECRTPs suppress air pollution by boosting energy efficiency, advancing industrial structure upgrading, and facilitating technological innovation. Further heterogeneous studies show that ECRTPs have a more pronounced inhibitory effect on air pollution in cities that are economically and socially developed, exhibit greater energy-saving potential, are characterized as resource-based cities, and serve as key regions for the prevention and control of air pollution. The research conclusion provides empirical evidence and policy implications for evaluating the environmental effects of ECRTPs and further improving China’s energy-consuming rights trading system, as well as offering references and guidance for other developing countries to put forward ECRTPs.

Do companies improve their ability to innovate sustainably as a result of ESG ratings?

Promoting the ESG concept is of great significance for the realization of the ‘Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality’ Goals and ESG has gradually become a comprehensive system for evaluating sustainable development. Based on the 2015 ESG ratings of SynTao Green Finance as a quasi-natural experiment and based on the panel data of China's A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2020, this study deeply explores the impact of ESG ratings on the continuous innovation ability of enterprises by constructing a multi-temporal double-difference model and a triple-difference model. The results show that ESG ratings can significantly enhance firms’ continuous innovation ability, a conclusion supported by a series of robustness tests. The positive impact of ESG ratings is more prominent for firms with low market attention, state-owned enterprises, and firms with high digital transformation. The impact mechanism suggests that ESG ratings advance firms’ ability to continuously innovate by increasing employment, improving employee income, and enhancing firm value. It is further found that ESG ratings are more effective in enhancing the continuous innovation ability of heavy polluters and capital – and technology-intensive firms than other firms. The findings of the study help to promote the sustainable development of enterprises and realize the synergy between ESG construction and high-quality development.

Effects of the 2001 draft suspension in Spain on educational attainment

Following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, multiple European countries abolished compulsive military service to opt for a professional military. These reforms may have positive or negative effects on young men's educational attainment. On one hand, these individuals may have more time to pursue their education without the interruption caused by compulsive military service. On the other, if young men were using their education as a way to delay or prevent compulsive military service, then they may pursue less education in the absence of such an incentive. In this study, we ask how the 2001 reform to abolish compulsive military service in Spain affected educational attainment of young men. Using a difference-in-differences approach along time and gender, we find that there was a significant increase in university education and a significant decrease in secondary education after the reform. Next, we use a triple difference model along time, gender and a binary variable indicating whether both of the young man's parents were low educated in order to analyze the potential heterogenous effects of the reform depending on the education level of an individual. We find that an average young man born after 1982 was 7.6% more likely to obtain university education and 9.7% less likely to obtain secondary education after the reform. Finally, we control for time, year, and province of birth fixed effects to mitigate omitted variable bias. Our results remain similar except that the positive effect of the reform on university education becomes marginally significant.

How carbon emission trading mechanism and supply chain digitization affect manufacturing enterprises’ competitiveness? Evidence from China

Under the background of digitalization and green development concept, exploring the road of manufacturing power is an important hand to promote the high-quality development of economy. The article constructs a triple difference model based on the list of emission-control enterprises of carbon emissions trading mechanism and China's pilot cities of supply chain innovation and application, and empirically investigates the impact of policy synergies of carbon emissions trading mechanism and supply chain digitization on the competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises by using the data of listed companies in the manufacturing industry from 2010 to 2022. The results show that the policy synergy effect of carbon emissions trading mechanism and supply chain digitization can improve the competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises. The impact mechanism test shows that the policy synergy effect of carbon emissions trading and supply chain digitization can enhance the competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises by alleviating the degree of cost-price incomplete transmission, promoting technological innovation, and improving the efficiency of resource allocation in the manufacturing industry. The direct impact of product quality on carbon emissions trading mechanism and supply chain digitization has a "U"-shaped moderating effect, when product quality is below the bottleneck of 0.418, exacerbating the fluctuation of production costs of enterprises, carbon emissions trading mechanism and supply chain digitization will have an inhibitory effect on the competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises. The conclusion confirms that the policy synergy effect of carbon emissions trading mechanism and supply chain digitization can promote manufacturing enterprises to improve competitiveness. However, manufacturing enterprises should pay attention to product quality, and if product quality is not dominant, carbon quota constraints and supply chain digitization will likewise inhibit the competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises. This study provides important policy insights for countries to actively promote the construction of carbon emissions trading mechanisms and stimulate the momentum of digitalization and high-quality transformation of manufacturing industries.

Paid family leave and the fight against hunger: Evidence from New York.

We examine the effects of New York's paid family leave (PFL) policy, introduced in January 2018, on food security. While researchers evaluating PFL policies in the past have mostly focused on employment and health outcomes, we believe that an improved understanding of potential impacts on food security is pivotal as it is directly related to the health and well-being of mothers and new-borns during the postnatal months. Our analysis uses two primary data sets-Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement (CPS-FSS) and Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Estimating difference-in-differences and triple difference models, we show that New York's PFL reduced the prevalence of low food security by 36% in both datasets. The positive effects are more sizable for households with low-educated heads and families with incomes under 185% of the Federal Poverty Line. These findings highlight that paid leave benefits lead to a larger reduction in food insecurity among disadvantaged families and thus have the potential to reduce existing societal inequalities. When examining potential mechanisms through which New York's PFL law improves food security, we show that the policy increased food expenditures, increased labor force participation, particularly by mothers, and improved parental health.

How do companies with different life cycles respond to carbon trading?—Analysis of the moderating role of government subsidies

Enterprises with diverse life cycles possess distinct survival and operational laws. Hence, it is crucial to comprehend whether all these enterprises can proficiently engage in green innovation under the guidance of carbon emissions trading (CET). This study leverages the quasi-natural experiment of CET policy, employing panel data encompassing A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen spanning from 2008 to 2020. Through the application of the triple difference model, the research examines the influence of CET policy on the green innovation endeavors of enterprises characterized by various life cycles. The research outcomes reveal the following: 1) CET policy significantly impacts the green innovation of mature enterprises, and contributes to the enrichment of the quality of their green innovation endeavors. 2) Due to limitations pertaining to financing constraints and business expansion, CET policy fails to foster green innovation within the growth and decline phases of enterprises. 3) Government subsidies can overturn the unfavorable position of growth-stage enterprises in carbon emissions trading and propel them towards heightened green innovation. However, government subsidies do not yield a substantial moderating effect on the green innovation endeavors of maturity-stage enterprises. Simultaneously, even if declining-phase enterprises are subjected to government subsidies, these subsidies do not reverse their innovation disadvantage in carbon emissions rights trading. In addition, we also found that in areas with heightened public awareness of environmental protection and state-owned enterprises, the positive regulatory effect of government subsidies is more significant. The findings derived from this study bestow invaluable insights for decision-makers striving to optimize the implementation of the CET policy and effectively allocate government subsidies.

Carbon Trading Market and Green Innovation of Enterprises—Based on the Triple Difference Model

This article takes Chinese manufacturing listed companies from 2000 to 2020 as the research object, based on enterprise green patent data, and adopts a double difference method to study the effect of carbon trading pilot policies, a quasi-natural experiment, on enterprise innovation. Research has found that: (1) The carbon trading pilot policy has significantly promoted green innovation in enterprises and increased their technological innovation efforts. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments, including placebo testing, excluding the implementation of innovative city pilot policies, and interference from economic crises. (2) Mechanism testing has found that carbon trading pilot policies can significantly promote green innovation in enterprises by strengthening the effectiveness of environmental regulations and improving the cash flow situation of enterprises. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the concentration of technology and the degree of equity dispersion in enterprises can affect the effectiveness of innovation. In response to the above conclusions, this article proposes suggestions for improving the carbon trading system, exploring multidimensional paths for carbon trading pilot projects to promote enterprise innovation, and improving policy adaptability, flexibility, and execution intensity. The research in this article provides policy inspiration for further improving the carbon trading market, enhancing the effectiveness of the carbon trading system, and fully leveraging the carbon market to promote green innovation for enterprises and achieve low-carbon development. It has reference significance for the construction and improvement of the national carbon market and promotes the improvement of national energy conservation and emission reduction policy planning.

Does Low-Carbon City Construction Promote Integrated Economic, Energy, and Environmental Development? An Empirical Study Based on the Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy in China

Low-carbon urban transformation is considered the path to green economic growth in dual-carbon contexts. The low-carbon city pilot policy (LCCP) in China has vast potential to enhance the integrated development of the economy, energy, and environment (3Es). Taking 240 cities in China from 2005 to 2019 as research samples, this paper investigated the impact of LCCP on the integrated development level of the 3Es using the progressive difference-in-differences model and analyzed the mechanisms of influence. In addition, the implementation effects on different cities were analyzed using the triple difference model. The findings show that implementing the LCCP policy significantly improves the 3Es integrated development level in the sample cities, and a variety of robustness tests were used to validate this conclusion. The influence mechanism analysis shows that the primary avenues for pilot programs to contribute and successfully advance the enhancement of the low-carbon city 3Es integrated development level are technological innovation and financial development. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis of resource endowment and geographical location shows that LCCP is beneficial to the 3Es integrated development in non-resource-based cities and eastern cities. Consequently, policy recommendations include the continuation of low-carbon pilot city expansion, joint promotion of regional 3Es integration, improving the level of technological innovation and financial development, and tailoring of policy to local circumstances. This study provides theoretical support for the evaluation of China’s LCCP and, to a certain extent, proves that the measures taken by China in the process of exploring green economic growth and realizing the dual-carbon goal are correct.

Mechanisms and heterogeneity in the construction of network infrastructure to help rural households bridge the “digital divide”

Addressing the digital divide that plagues rural areas has become an important issue in narrowing the urban–rural gap and achieving common prosperity. This article examines the impact of network infrastructure on rural households’ ability to cross the digital divide by using the "broadband rural" strategy as a proxy variable for network infrastructure and combining data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) with a score propensity matched difference-in-differences model (PSM-DID). The results show that network infrastructure can help farmers cross the access and use divide, but does not contribute significantly to crossing the ability divide in the current period. A triple difference model (DDD) was introduced to test the effect of network technology training on the contribution of network infrastructure to the ability gap, and the ability gap needs to be based on the use gap, so there is a delay in the response of the ability gap to policy. Further analysis reveals that network infrastructure mainly facilitates non-farm occupational groups to cross the capability divide, and facilitates middle-aged and young people to cross the digital divide, and does not have significant effects on groups involved in agricultural work and older people. In view of this, the network infrastructure should be continuously promoted, public service training on digital skills should be organized, electronic products and information services should be created exclusively for the elderly group and the group involved in agricultural production, and the ability of farmers to apply the network to their production life should be strengthened.

Beyond environmental actions: How environmental regulations stimulate strategic-political CSR engagement in China?

Departing from conventional approaches of environmental actions in response to stricter environmental regulations, our paper leverages the rent-seeking theory to propose that firms engage in strategic-political corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities to obtain environmental legitimacy, which complements the local government's duty of social welfare provision. By selecting the enforcement of China's new Environmental Protection Law (NEPL) as an exogenous shock, our standard difference-in-difference model confirms that NEPL has significantly increased the strategic-political CSR engagement, and it creates a shelter against environmental penalty. The findings remain robust when employing the continuous difference-in-difference model and the triple difference model to relieve concerns regarding comparability between the treated group and control group. Further, the positive effect is attenuated by sound financial condition and strong law enforcement. Our paper extends the understanding of the reciprocal relationship between regulated firms and local governments during the environmental transition process in China, and, potentially, in other developing countries with similar decentralization system and government intervention.

The relationship between mental health and public attention to the Brett Kavanaugh hearings and confirmation

RationaleResearchers have rarely considered how public attention surrounding political events influences mental health. Specifically, in a politically polarized nation like the United States, it is possible that these events have a public mental health effect. ObjectiveThis study examines the mental health effects associated with the 2018 U.S. Senate hearing and confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh using public survey data. MethodsWe use the interview date included in CDC data from the 2014–2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to identify the effects of increased public attention on the Kavanaugh hearings and confirmation on the mental health of individuals who identify as female. We employ a triple difference model to control for possible confounding effects and target causality. ResultsWe find meaningful increases in both the number of “not good” mental health days reported and the probability of reporting any “not good” mental health days. On average, females reported 0.24 more poor mental health days during the one-month period surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation and hearings than women did in the same 1-month period in 2014. This change represents a nearly 10% increase in mental health burden. The results are robust to the inclusion of a range of covariates as well as alternate specifications. In addition, we derive estimates of the societal costs associated with the increased mental health burden linked to Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation. ConclusionThis study demonstrates that the Kavanaugh confirmation and hearings were associated with a notable rise in mental health challenges, especially among women. These results extend beyond personal experience and illustrate the societal costs linked to the resulting increased mental health burden. Further research on similar events is warranted.

Impacts of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion on Mental Health Treatment Among Low-income Adults Across Racial/Ethnic Subgroups, 2010-2017.

This study examines whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion (ME) was associated with changes in racial/ethnic disparities in insurance coverage, utilization, and quality of mental health care among low-income adults with probable mental illness using the National Survey on Drug Use and Health with state identifiers. This study employed difference-in-difference models to compare ME states to non-expansion states before (2010-2013) and after (2014-2017) expansion and triple difference models to examine these changes across non-Hispanic White (NHW), non-Hispanic Black (NHB), and Hispanic/Latino racial/ethnic subgroups. Insurance coverage increased significantly for all racial/ethnic groups in expansion states relative to non-expansion states (DD: 9.69; 95% CI: 5.17, 14.21). The proportion low-income adults that received treatment but still had unmet need decreased (DD: -3.06; 95% CI: -5.92, -0.21) and the proportion with unmet need and no mental health treatment increased (DD: 2.38; 95% CI: 0.03, 4.73). ME was not associated with reduced disparities.

A study on the impact of double external shocks on Chinese wholesale pork prices.

Fluctuation in pork prices has always been a focus of academic attention. This paper examines the impact of double external shocks on pork prices, to provide reference for the impact of future outbreaks on the pork market. This paper constructs a natural experiment based on the time and regional differences in the occurrence of the epidemics. Double difference models and triple difference models are used to identify the impacts of African swine fever and COVID-19 on Chinese pork prices. The results found that both African swine fever and COVID-19 positively affected pork prices, but African swine fever had a greater degree of impact; before the COVID-19 epidemic, African swine fever caused a more significant increase in pork prices; the impact of a single African swine fever shock was greater than the double shocks. The COVID-19 epidemic may have curbed the further increase in pork prices, due to the decreased market consumption demand caused by the epidemic.

Using cash transfers to promote child health equity: an analysis ofLesotho's Child Grants Program.

Cash transfers (CTs) are increasingly popular tools for promoting social inclusion and equity in children in sub-Saharan Africa. However, less is known about their implications for reducing the health gap between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary children in the community. Using Lesotho's Child Grants Program (CGP) as a case study, we aim to understand better the potential for CT programmes to reduce the gap in child health in the targeted communities. Using a triple difference model, we examine to what extent CGP improved child health outcomes in eligible households compared with non-eligible households in treatment communities vs control communities and to what extent this effect varied in different population subgroups. We find that the child health gap by beneficiary children's health outcomes catching-up on the health of non-beneficiary children narrowed but that eduction was not statistically significant. However, such a 'catch-up' effect among beneficiaries was observed for selected nutrition outcomes amongst female-headed households and subjective child health assessment for comparatively more food-secure households. This study highlights the potential and limitations of CT programmes like the CGP to address health inequalities in preschool children for selected population subgroups in the community.

Ghana's Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (1000) Program Seasonally Impacts Birthweight: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis.

Objectives: Low birthweight (LBW) prevalence remains high in African countries and evidence of cash transfer impacts on birthweight, particularly by season of infant birth, is limited. This study examines overall and seasonal cash transfer impacts on LBW in rural Ghana. Methods: Data come from a longitudinal, quasi-experimental impact evaluation of the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) 1,000 unconditional cash transfer program for impoverished pregnant or lactating women in rural districts of Northern Ghana. LEAP1000 program impacts on average birthweight and LBW were estimated for a multiply imputed sample of 3,258 and a panel sample of 1,567 infants using differences-in-differences models and triple difference models to assess impacts by season. Results: LEAP1000 decreased LBW prevalence by 3.5 and 4.1 percentage points overall and in the dry season, respectively. LEAP1000 increased average birthweight by 94, 109, and 79g overall, in the dry season, and in the rainy season, respectively. Conclusion: Our findings of positive LEAP1000 impacts on birthweight across seasons and on LBW in the dry season demonstrate the need to take seasonal vulnerabilities into account when designing and implementing programs for rural populations in Africa.