A study on the impact of double external shocks on Chinese wholesale pork prices.

Abstract

Fluctuation in pork prices has always been a focus of academic attention. This paper examines the impact of double external shocks on pork prices, to provide reference for the impact of future outbreaks on the pork market. This paper constructs a natural experiment based on the time and regional differences in the occurrence of the epidemics. Double difference models and triple difference models are used to identify the impacts of African swine fever and COVID-19 on Chinese pork prices. The results found that both African swine fever and COVID-19 positively affected pork prices, but African swine fever had a greater degree of impact; before the COVID-19 epidemic, African swine fever caused a more significant increase in pork prices; the impact of a single African swine fever shock was greater than the double shocks. The COVID-19 epidemic may have curbed the further increase in pork prices, due to the decreased market consumption demand caused by the epidemic.