Triggering Debris Flows Research Articles

Rainfall-triggering response patterns of post-seismic debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake area

Several giant debris flows occurred in southwestern China after the Wenchuan earthquake, causing serious casualties and economic losses. Debris flows were frequently triggered after the earthquake. A relatively accurate prediction of these post-seismic debris flows can help to reduce the consequent damages. Existing debris flow prediction is almost based on the study of the relationship between post-earthquake debris flows and rainfall. The relationship between the occurrence of post-seismic debris flows and characteristic rainfall patterns was studied in this paper. Fourteen rainfall events related to debris flows that occurred in four watersheds in the Wenchuan earthquake area were collected. By analyzing the rainfall data, characteristics of rainfall events that triggered debris flows after the earthquake were obtained. Both the critical maximum rainfall intensity and average rainfall intensity increased with the time. To describe the critical conditions for debris flow initiation, intensity–duration curves were constructed, which shows how the threshold for triggering debris flows increased each year. The time that the critical rainfall intensities of debris flow occurrences return to the value prior to the earthquake could not be estimated due to the absent rainfall data before the earthquake. Rainfall-triggering response patterns could be distinguished for rainfall-induced debris flows. The critical rainfall patterns related to debris flows could be divided on the basis of antecedent rainfall duration and intensity into three categories: (1) a rapid triggering response pattern, (2) an intermediate triggering response pattern, and (3) a slow triggering response pattern. The triggering response patterns are closely related to the initiation mechanisms of post-earthquake debris flows. The main difference in initiation mechanisms and difference in triggering patterns by rainfall is regulated by the infiltration process and determined by a number of parameters, such as hydro-mechanical soil characteristics, the thickness of the soil, and the slope gradient. In case of a rapid triggering response rainfall pattern, the hydraulic conductivity and initial moisture content are the main impact factors. Runoff erosion and rapid loading of solid material is the dominant process. In case of a rainfall pattern with a slow triggering response, the thickness and strength of the soil, high hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity are the impact factors. Probably slope failure is the most dominant process initiating debris flows. In case of an intermediate triggering response pattern, both debris flow initiation mechanisms (runoff erosion and slope failure) can play a role.

An empirical approach for evaluation of the potential of debris flow occurrence in mountainous areas

Debris flows can occur relatively suddenly and quickly in mountainous areas, resulting in major structural damage and loss of life. The establishment of a model to evaluate the occurrence probability of debris flows in mountainous areas is therefore of great value. The influence factors of debris flows are very complex; they can basically be divided into background factors and triggering factors. Background factors include the mechanical characteristics of geo-materials, topography and landscape, and soil vegetation; and triggering factors include hydrological and rainfall conditions, and human activities. By assessing the dynamic characteristics of debris flows in mountainous areas, some important influence factors are selected here for analysis of their impacts on the occurrence probability of debris flow. A mathematical model for evaluation of the occurrence probability of debris flows is presented and combined with probability analysis. Matlab software is used for the numerical implementation of the forecasting model, and the influences of rainfall, lithology and terrain conditions on the occurrence probability of debris flows are analyzed. Finally, the presented model is applied to forecast the occurrence probability of debris flows in the mountainous area around Qingping Town; the simulation results show that many loose landslide deposits and heavy rainfall are the key factors likely to trigger debris flows in this region.

Debris flows on the Great Kobuk Sand Dunes, Alaska: Implications for analogous processes on Mars

We observed niveo-aeolian deposits, denivation features, and small meltwater-induced debris flows that had formed at the Great Kobuk Sand Dunes, northwestern interior Alaska in late March 2010. This high-latitude, cold-climate dune field is being studied as a planetary analog to improve our understanding of factors that may trigger debris flows on the lee slopes of martian aeolian dunes. Debris flows consisted of a sand and liquid water mixture that cascaded down the lee slopes of two barchanoid dunes on days when measured ground surface temperatures were below freezing. We hypothesize that relatively dark sand on snow caused local hot spots where solar radiation could be absorbed by the sand and conducted into the underlying snow, enabling meltwater to form and sand to be mobilized. This investigation provides insights into the interactions between niveo-aeolian deposition, slope aspect and insolation, thawing, and initiation of alluvial processes. These debris flows are morphologically similar to those associated with seasonal gullies or erosion tracks visible on the slopes of mid- to high-latitude dune fields in both martian hemispheres. Localized heating and thawing at scales too small for orbital sensors to identify may yield martian debris flows at current climate conditions.

Rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, southwestern China

The Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area is frequently hit by heavy rainfall, which often triggers sediment-related disasters, such as shallow landslides, debris flows, and related natural events, sometimes causing tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. The assessment of the rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence is very important in order to improve forecasting and for risk management. In the context of the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, however, the rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flows are not well understood. With the aim of defining the critical rainfall thresholds for this area, a detailed analysis of the main rainstorm events was carried out. This paper presents 11 rainfall events that induced debris flows which occurred between 2008 and 2012 after the Wenchuan earthquake. The rainfall thresholds were defined in terms of mean rainfall intensity I, rainfall duration D, and normalized using the mean annual precipitation (MAP). An ID threshold and a normalized I MAP D threshold graph could be set up for the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area which forms the lower boundary of the domain with debris flow-triggering rainfall events. The rainfall threshold curves obtained for the study area were compared with the local, regional, and global curves proposed by various authors. The results suggest that debris flow initiation in the study area almost requires a higher amount of rainfall and greater intensity than elsewhere. The comparison of rainfall intensity prior to and after the earthquake clearly indicates that the critical rainfall intensity necessary to trigger debris flows decreased after the earthquake. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized, so that they can be used in debris flow warning systems in areas with the same geology as the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area.

Unraveling paraglacial activity on Sierra de Gredos, Central Spain: A study based on geomorphic markers, stratigraphy and OSL

Abstract We study the paraglacial activity in Gredos Gorge, a glaciated valley of Sierra de Gredos (Central Spain), using geomorphic markers, stratigraphy and an approach based on OSL. We use luminescence signals from debris flow and fluvial deposits as well as OSL dating of three deposits to detect the main paraglacial processes in Gredos Gorge. We identify two major phases of paraglacial activity during and after the retreat of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) glaciers. The first phase consisted of high discharge debris flows, sourced up-valley, triggered during the deglaciation. The second phase started ~ 11 ka and is characterized by two processes: (1) the triggering of low discharge debris flows sourced on the flanks of moraines, and (2) the reworking of paraglacial deposits by rivers. Our results of OSL signals, stratigraphy markers and sediment volume indicate that during and after the deglaciation of Gredos Gorge, paraglacial sediment was depleted as theory predicts. However, glacigenic sediments have not been transferred to sediment sinks as long as ~ 70% of glacial deposits are still stored in the valley. The transition of the environmental conditions prevailing during the LGM to current Mediterranean climate seems to play an important role in delaying the exhaustion model of glacially-conditioned sediment release. We propose that the poor coverage of vegetation driven by the Mediterranean climate prevents the stabilization of glacigenic sediment that is only mobilized during high discharge events responding to extreme rainfalls.

High-frequency monitoring of debris-flow propagation along the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps

The Réal Torrent (2.3km2 drainage area) is a very active debris-flow torrent in the French Prealps. It was equipped with three high-frequency monitoring stations in late 2010 to investigate the triggering conditions and propagation of debris flows along the 2-km long torrent channel. The monitoring system combines different techniques including rain gauges and measurements of ground vibrations and flow elevations.In spring and summer of 2011, five rainfall-triggered debris-flow events occurred along the torrent. Most debris fronts deposited in the upstream part of the channel but one large front (1.9–2.0m high) propagated to the catchment outlet with a mean velocity of about 3ms−1. The volume of this main debris surge was 3900m3 near the hillslope sources and increased downstream: 5500m3 in the middle part and 8600m3 near the catchment outlet. The debris flow developed a more mature flow pattern as it progressed downstream. Multiple debris and hyperconcentrated surges were observed upstream, while a single debris surge occurred near the catchment outlet. The front-height remained relatively constant during its propagation, whereas its viscosity and velocity tended to decrease downstream as the channel slope decreases. The growth of this main debris surge could be explained by the entrainment of in-channel sediments and the coalescence of the multiple preliminary surges.For the 2011 events, rainfall burst duration and intensity were the main factors controlling the occurrence, volume and runout distance of debris flows. Antecedent channel conditions (sediment recharge, bed wetness and antecedent rainfall) are also important factors, but further investigations are necessary to better understand the role of these factors regarding the triggering and propagation of debris flows in the Réal Torrent.

Analysis of the relationship of landslide occurrence with rainfall: a case study of Wudu County, China

Landslides are a significant hazard in many parts of the world and represent an important geohazard in China. Rainfall is the primary triggering agent for landslides and often used for prediction slope failures. However, the relationship between rainfall and landslide occurrences is very complex. Great efforts have been made on the study of regional rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models in recent years; still, there is no commonly accepted method for rainfall-induced landslide prediction. In this paper, the quantitative antecedent soil water status (ASWS) model is applied to investigate the influence of daily and antecedent rainfall on the triggering of landslides and debris flows. The study area is Wudu County in Gansu Province, an area which exhibits frequent landslide occurrences. The results demonstrate a significant influence of high intensity rainfall events on landslide triggering. Still, antecedent rainfall conditions are very important and once a threshold of approximately 20 mm is exceeded, landslides and debris flows can occur even without additional rainfall. The study presented could also facilitate the implementation of a regional forecasting scheme once additional validation has been carried out.

Characteristics of rainfall triggering of debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, Taiwan

Abstract. This paper reports the variation in rainfall characteristics associated with debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, between 1963 and 2009. The maximum hourly rainfall Im, the maximum 24 h rainfall Rd, and the rainfall index RI (defined as the product RdIm) were analysed for each rainfall event that triggered a debris flow within the watershed. The corresponding number of debris flows initiated by each rainfall event (N) was also investigated via image analysis and/or field investigation. The relationship between N and RI was analysed. Higher RI of a rainfall event would trigger a larger number of debris flows. This paper also discusses the effects of the Chi-Chi earthquake (CCE) on this relationship and on debris flow initiation. The results showed that the critical RI for debris flow initiation had significant variations and was significantly lower in the years immediately following the CCE of 1999, but appeared to revert to the pre-earthquake condition about five years later. Under the same extreme rainfall event of RI = 365 cm2 h−1, the value of N in the CCE-affected period could be six times larger than that in the non-CCE-affected periods.

Debris flows introduced in landslide deposits under rainfall conditions: The case of Wenjiagou gully

Debris flows often occur in landslide deposits during heavy rainstorms. Debris flows are initiated by surface water runoff and unsaturated seepage under rainfall conditions. A physical model based on an infinitely long, uniform and void-rich sediment layer was applied to analyze the triggering of debris-flow introduced in landslide deposits. To determine the initiation condition for rainfall-induced debris flows, we conducted a surface water runoff and saturated-unsaturated seepage numerical program to model rainfall infiltration and runoff on a slope. This program was combined with physical modeling and stability analysis to make certain the initiation condition for rainfall-introduced debris flows. Taking the landslide deposits at Wenjiagou gully as an example, the initiation conditions for debris flow were computed. The results show that increase height of surface-water runoff and the decrease of saturated sediment shear strength of are the main reasons for triggering debris-flows under heavy rainfall conditions. The debris-flow triggering is affected by the depth of surface-water runoff, the slope saturation and shear strength of the sediment.

Frequency–magnitude distribution of debris flows compiled from global data, and comparison with post-fire debris flows in the western U.S.

Forecasting debris flow hazard is challenging due to the episodic occurrence of debris flows in response to stochastic precipitation and, in some areas, wildfires. In order to facilitate hazard assessment, we have gathered available records of debris flow volumes into the first comprehensive global catalog of debris flows (n=988). We also present results of field collection of recent debris flows (n=77) in the northern Rocky Mountains, where debris flow frequency increases following wildfire. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency–magnitude distributions and empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs) to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. The ECDF of post-fire debris flow volumes is significantly different (at 95% confidence) from that of non-fire-related debris flows, suggesting that the post-fire distribution is composed of a higher proportion of small events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. The slope of the frequency–magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, corroborating evidence that small post-fire debris flows occur with a higher relative frequency than non-fire-related debris flows. Taken together, the statistical analyses suggest that post-fire debris flows come from a different population than non-fire-related debris flows, and their hazard must be modeled separately. We propose two possible non-exclusive explanations for the fact that the post-fire environment produces a higher proportion of small debris flows: 1) following fires, smaller storms or effective drainage areas can trigger debris flows due to increased runoff and/or decreases in root strength, resulting in smaller volumes and increased probability of failure, and 2) fire increases the probability and frequency of debris flows, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply.

DB구축을 통한 강원지역 토석류 유형 분석

최근 우리나라에서는 2002년 태풍 루사, 2003년 태풍 매미, 2006년 태풍 에위니아와 집중호우로 인하여 산지가 약 90%를 차지하고 있는 강원지역의 주택, 도로, 농지가 큰 피해를 입었다. 이로 인한 경제적 손실과 사망자의 대부분은 홍수와 토석류가 발생된 산지 계곡부와 시내에 집중되었다. 본 연구에서는 기존에 강원지역에서 발생된 토석류 발생지에 대한 현장조사를 실시하여 총 180개소의 토석류에 대한 데이터베이스를 구축하였다. 구축된 자료에 대한 분석결과, 강원지역에서 발생된 토석류는 대부분 소규모 사면파괴로부터 시작하였으며, <TEX>$34.3^{\circ}$</TEX>의 비교적 가파른 경사에서 발생하여 평균 <TEX>$18.1^{\circ}$</TEX> 정도의 완만한 경사를 따라 420 m 정도의 비교적 짧은 거리를 이동하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 토석류 발생 당일의 강우도 중요하지만 발생 이전의 장기강우가 토석류 발생과 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 나타났다. In recent years in Korea, Typhoon Rusa (2002), Typhoon Maemi (2003), and the localized extreme rainfall followed by Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 devastated residential areas, roads, and agricultural lands in Gangwon province where 90% of the area is in mountainous regions. Most of the economic losses and casualties were concentrated in the area near the mountain valleys and creeks due to the floods and debris flows. In this study, DATABASE, which includes a total 180 debris flow events in the Gangwon area, was created by collecting the hazard records and field investigations of existing debris flow sites. Analysis results showed that the most of the debris flows in Gangwon province initiated from the small slope failure with relatively steep slope of <TEX>$18.1^{\circ}$</TEX>. And they flowed short distances about 420 m in gentle slope with the average angle of <TEX>$18.1^{\circ}$</TEX>. In addition, rainfall condition was important for the triggering of debris flow not only at the day of debris flow but also extended period of rainfall before debris flow.

A simple and feasible process for using multi-stage high-precision DTMs, field surveys and rainfall data to study debris flow occurrence factors of Shenmu area, Taiwan

Abstract. The occurrence of typhoon Herb in 1996 caused massive landslides in the Shenmu area of Taiwan. Many people died and stream and river beds were covered by meters of debris. Debris flows almost always take place in the Shenmu area during the flood season, especially in the catchment areas around Tsushui river and Aiyuzih river. Anthropogenic and natural factors that cause debris flow occurrences are complex and numerous. The precise conditions of initiation are difficult to be identified, but three factors are generally considered to be the most important ones, i.e. rainfall characteristics, geologic conditions and topography. This study proposes a simple and feasible process that combines remote sensing technology and multi-stage high-precision DTMs from aerial orthoimages and airborne LiDAR with field surveys to establish a connection between three major occurrence factors that trigger debris flows in the Shenmu area.

Rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for bedload transport initiation in small Alpine watersheds

Abstract. Although channel discharge represents one of the primary controls of bedload transport rates in mountain streams, it is rarely measured in small, steep catchments. Thus, it is often impossible to use it as a predictor of hazardous bedload events. In this study, the characteristics of rainfall events leading to bedload transport were investigated in five small Alpine catchments located in different geographical and morphological regions of Switzerland, Italy and France. Using rainfall data at high temporal resolution, a total of 370 rainfall events were identified that led to abundant sediment transport in the different catchments, and corresponding threshold lines were defined using a power law in intensity–duration space. Even though considerable differences in the distribution of the rainfall data were identified between catchments located in various regions, the determined threshold lines show rather similar characteristics. Such threshold lines indicate critical conditions for bedload transport initiation, but rainfall events that do not cause transport activity (so called no-bedload events) can still plot above them. With 0.67 overall in the Erlenbach (Swiss Prealps) and 0.90 for long-duration, low-intensity rainfall, the false alarm rate is considerable. However, for short-duration, high-intensity events, it is substantially smaller (0.33) and comparable to values determined in previous studies on the triggering of Alpine debris flows. Our results support the applicability of a traditional, generalized threshold for prediction or warning purposes during high-intensity rainfall. Such (often convective) rainfall events are unfortunately (i) difficult to measure, even by dense rain gauge networks, and (ii) difficult to accurately predict, both due to their small spatial and temporal scales. Still, for the protection of human life (e.g. along transportation infrastructure such as roads and railway) automated alerts based on power law threshold lines may be useful.

Case study of a giant debris flow in the Wenjia Gully, Sichuan Province, China

The debris flow, which was triggered in the Wenjia Gully on August 13, 2010, is an extreme example of mass movement events, which occurred after the Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008. This Earthquake triggered in the Wenjia Gully the second largest co-seismic landslide, which can be classified as a rockslide-debris avalanche. A lot of loose sediments was deposited in the basin. In the main so called Deposition Area II of this landslide, with a volume of 30 × 106 m3, flash floods can easily trigger debris flows because of the steep bottom slope and the relative small grain sizes of the sediments. The largest debris flow of August 13, 2010 destroyed the most downstream dam in the catchment during a heavy rain storm. The debris flow with a peak discharge of 1,530 m3/s and a total volume of 3.1 × 106 m3 caused the death of 7 persons, 5 persons were missing, 39 persons were injured and 479 houses buried. After three rainy seasons, only 16 % of the landslide-debris deposition was taken away by 5 large-scale debris flow events. Since the threshold for rainfall triggered debris flows in the Wenjia Gully and other catchments drastically decreased after the Wenchuan Earthquake, new catastrophic events are expected in the future during the rainy season.

Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is interrupted. These results lead to the identification of a comprehensive hydrogeomorphological model of susceptibility to initial landslides that links morphological, stratigraphical and hydrological conditions. The calculation of intensities and durations of rainfall necessary for slope instability allowed the identification of deterministic hydrological thresholds that account for uncertainty in properties and observed rainfall intensities.

Hydrometeorological triggers of periglacial debris flows in the Zermatt valley (Switzerland) since 1864

The triggering of debris flows depends on a critical combination of available unconsolidated material and water supply. In periglacial environments, debris flows are generally triggered by liquefaction of loose material in a channel, or by progressive erosion during a large release of water. Here, we link an unusually dense and highly resolved database on periglacial debris flows with meteorological records dating back to AD 1864 to reconstruct ∼150 yr of rainstorms that triggered debris flows at high‐elevation sites (source area elevations ranging from 2000 to 4545 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Alps. Analysis is based on a tree ring‐derived frequency series of debris flows from eight torrents, as well as on daily records from three meteorological stations and runoff data from four river gauging stations. Results show that the debris‐flow season at these high‐altitude sites now is much longer (May to October) than it used to be in the late nineteenth century when activity was limited to June–September. Debris flows early in the season are generally triggered by lower rainstorm totals (&lt;20 mm/day) than those occurring later in the season because early season snowmelt adds considerable amounts of water to the system and therefore facilitates debris‐flow formation. Debris flows in May, June, July, and August are triggered primarily by short‐duration high‐intensity rainstorms (local thunderstorms) whereas late season (September, October) debris flows are commonly related to longer‐lasting advective rainstorms.

Recent changes in the number of rainfall events related to debris-flow occurrence in the Chenyulan Stream Watershed, Taiwan

Abstract. This study analyzed the variability in the number of rainfall events related to debris-flow occurrence in the Chenyulan stream watershed located in central Taiwan. Rainfall data between 1970 and 2009 measured at three meteorological stations nearby/in the watershed were collected and used to determine the corresponding regional average rainfall for the watershed. Data on debris-flow events between 1985 and 2009 were collected and used to study their dependence on regional average rainfall. The maximum 24-h regional rainfall Rd was used to analyze the number of rainfall events Nr, the number of rainfall events that triggered debris flows Nd, and the probability of debris-flows occurrences P. The variation trends in Nr, Nd and P over recent decades under three rainfall conditions (Rd &gt; 20, 230, and 580 mm) related to debris-flow occurrence were analyzed. In addition, the influences of the Chi-Chi earthquake on Nd and P were presented. The results showed that the rainfall events with Rd &gt; 20 mm during the earthquake-affected period (2000–2004) strongly responded to the increases in the average number of rainfall events that triggered debris flows and the average probability of debris-flows occurrences. The number of rainfall events with Rd &gt; 230 mm (the lower boundary for the rainfall ever triggering debris flow before the Chi-Chi earthquake), and Rd &gt; 580 mm (the lower boundary for extreme rainfall ever triggering numerous debris flows) in the Chenyulan stream watershed increased after 2000. The increase in the number of extreme rainfall events with Rd &gt; 580 mm augmented the number of rainfall events ever triggering numerous debris flows in the last decade. The increase in both the number of rainfall events that ever triggered debris flows and the probability of debris-flow occurrences was greater in the last decade (2000–2009) than in 1990–1999.

Fire-related debris flows in the Iberian Range, Spain

Debris flows occurred three weeks after a wildfire in August 1986 in the Najerilla River valley in the Iberian Range, northern Spain. The flows were triggered by a brief, intense rainstorm (approximately 25mmh−1 over 15min) in a small area with steep slopes covered by a thick colluvium of quartzite clasts. This storm resulted in the development of several unconfined hillslope debris flows and the formation of an alluvial fan at the mouth of the Pítare stream, which partially blocked the Najerilla River. We analysed the conditions that led to the development of the debris flows, and estimated the rainfall threshold for the debris flows to occur as well as the total volume of mobilised sediment. Four factors contributed to the debris flows: (i) the occurrence of a rainstorm three weeks after a wildfire, which had removed the plant cover from the soil; (ii) the steep slopes in the area (>30°), which were the most affected by debris flows; (iii) the presence of quartzite scarps on the hillslopes, which favoured the development of a ‘firehose effect’ involving channelised surface runoff; and (iv) the low plasticity index values of the fine material of the colluvium (indices of 7 to 8), which enabled rapid liquefaction. Estimates of rainfall intensity derived from the estimated peak flow in the Pítare stream suggests that around 80mm of rainfall fell in approximately 15min, although this is clearly an overestimated value given the high proportion of sediment load transported during the peak flow. Various equations estimated a rainfall-threshold of approximately 25mmh−1 considering a concentration time of 15min. The total sediment transported by the debris flows was 10,500m3 (15,750Mg, 6800Mgkm−2), and the Pítare stream alone transported a minimum of 4000m3 (6000Mg, 2500Mgkm−2). These results suggest that the rainfall threshold for initiating debris flows decreases following a wildfire, such that an ordinary rainstorm is able to trigger a severe erosion and sediment transport event. Given the absence of fresh landslide scars on the hillslopes, the origin of the fire-related debris flows in the Najerilla River valley appears to have been directly linked to increased rates of overland flow having a greater effect than infiltration for triggering debris flows.

Centrifuge modelling of hillslope debris flow initiation

Physical modelling of hillslope debris flow initiation was undertaken using the geotechnical beam centrifuge at the University of Dundee. The tests were carried out on model slopes consisting of soils with known properties prepared with constant initial density and material thickness. The results showed that soils with a higher silt fraction can sustain a higher increase in pore water pressure and thus a greater reduction in effective stress before failure is induced. This suggests that sand rich soils with lower fines content are geotechnically more susceptible to slope failure and that observed higher spatial frequencies of debris flow on slopes with coarse grained bedrocks can be partially explained in terms of lower critical pore pressure failure thresholds amongst the sandier soil matrixes produced from such lithologies. Differences in rates of water ingress into the model soils required to trigger a critical rise in pore pressures during the tests provide insights into the varying synoptic conditions and antecedent rainfall characteristics that are likely to trigger debris flows in different soil types.

Joint Probability Prediction Model of Rainfall Triggered Landslides and Debris Flows

The rainfall induced landslides and debris flows are the major disasters in China, as well in Europe, South America, Japan and Australia. This paper proposes a new type of joint probability prediction model—Double Layer Nested Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (DLNMCEVD) to predict landslides and debris flows triggered by rainfall. The outer layer of DLNMCEVD is predicting the joint probabilities of different combinations for rainfall characteristics, air temperature and humidity, which should be considered as external load factors with geological and geotechnical characteristics as resistance factors for reliability analysis of slope stability in the inner layer of model. For the reliability and consequence analysis of rainfall-induced slope failure, the Global Uncertainty Analysis and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GUA & GSA) should be taken into account for input-output iterations. Finally, based on the statistics prediction by DLNMCEVD, the geological hazards prevention alarm and regionalization can be provided in this paper.