Changing Trends Research Articles

Dementia Prevalence, Incidence, and Mortality Trends Among U.S. Adults Ages 72 and Older, 2011-2021.

U.S.-focused studies have reported decreasing dementia prevalence in recent decades, but have not yet focused on the implications of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic for trends. We use the 2011-2021 National Health and Aging Trends Study (N = 48 065) to examine dementia prevalence, incidence, and mortality trends among adults ages 72 and older, and the contribution to prevalence trends of changes in the distribution of characteristics of the older population ("compositional shifts") during the full and prepandemic periods. To minimize classification error, individuals must meet dementia criteria for 2 consecutive rounds. The prevalence of probable dementia declined from 11.9% in 2011 to 9.2% in 2019 and 8.2% in 2021 (3.1% average annual decline). Pre-pandemic declines continued for women and non-Hispanic White individuals and emerged over the 2011-2021 period for men and those ages 80-89. Declines in dementia incidence were stronger for the 2011-2021 period than for the prepandemic period, while mortality among those with dementia rose sharply with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Shifts in the composition of the older population accounted for a smaller fraction of the decline over the full period (27%) than over the prepandemic period (45%). Declines in dementia prevalence continued into years marked by onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with declines in incidence and sharp increases in mortality among those with dementia. However, declines are no longer largely attributable to compositional changes in the older population. Continued tracking of dementia prevalence, incidence, and mortality among those with and without dementia is needed to understand long-run consequences of the pandemic.

Changes in starch properties during malting and their correlations with the malting quality of multiple barley cultivars

AbstractBackground and ObjectiveThere is still a lack of information about detailed dynamic changes in starch properties during malting among multiple barley varieties and correlations of starch properties with malting qualities. In this work, compositional, physicochemical, morphological, and structural properties of starches from four barley varieties at six time points across the malting process were first investigated to better understand the starch modification of barley malting. Furthermore, a total of 30 barley varieties were used to investigate the relationship between malting qualities and starch properties. The results provide a reference for breeding high‐malting quality barley based on starch properties.FindingsSignificant decreases in starch contents, paste viscosities, relative crystallinity, as well as the ratio of 1045/1022 cm−1 of starch, were exhibited, while comparatively small changes were found in the thermal parameters during malting. Amylose and amylopectin polymers were both hydrolyzed in malting. After malting, pits and holes were discovered on the surface of some starch granules. Four parameters of peak viscosity (PV), breakdown, peak time (PeT), and pasting temperature (PT) had significant correlations with diastatic power (DP), while the above four indicators together with amylose content, total starch content, onset temperature, peak temperature, and swelling power had significant correlations with malt extract (ME).ConclusionsThe trend of changes in starch properties among all four genotypes was similar. However, the variety with better malting quality showed a greater degree of measurements in some starch characters. Starch properties are mainly related to the two malting quality indicators of DP and ME.Significance and NoveltyPV, breakdown, PeT, and PT had significant correlations with malting qualities.

Effect of Nickel Impurities in Pyrite on Catalytic Degradation of Thiosulfate

The effects of nickel content in nickel-bearing pyrite on photocatalytic properties, light absorption properties, and oxidative decomposition of thiosulfate were studied. The leaching experiments show that the consumption of thiosulfate in the Cu2+-ethylenediamine (en)-S2O32− system increases with an increase in nickel content in nickel-bearing pyrite. The consumption of Cu(en)22+ initially increases and then decreases with an increase in leaching time. There is a clear correlation between the change trend in its consumption and the doping amount of nickel in pyrite. The XPS results show that in the Cu2+-ethylenediamine (en)-S2O32− leaching gold system (temperature 25 °C, time 35 h, solution: 0.1 mol/L S2O32−, 5 mmol/L Cu(en)22+, 200 mL solution), the nickel of pyrite-containing nickel can be transferred to the leaching solution and becomes nickel ion. In this leaching system, Cu(II), which was originally complexed with en, is reduced to Cu(I) in a short time. The consumption of Cu(en)22+ increased rapidly in the 5 h period and then decreased gradually after 5 h. The results showed that the presence of free Ni2+ in the solution facilitated the conversion of bivalent copper ions to monovalent copper ions. Free Ni2+ ions can compete with Cu2+ ions for en ligands. When ethylenediamine complexes with Ni2+, the decomposition of Cu(en)22+ into Cu(en)+ and en occurs more rapidly. And the en, which was originally to be oxidized with Cu(en)+ to form Cu(en)22+, forms Ni(en)22+. As a result, the concentration of Cu(en)22+ continues to decrease in a short period of time.

Changes in the soil and vegetation cover of the Kochubey biosphere station under global warming in recent years

Objectives: The study and long-term observations of changes in the spatial structure of vegetation cover of pasture landscapes of the Kochubey Biosphere Station (KBS) due to global climate warming. Arid pasture landscapes, due to the peculiarities of their spatial structure (the presence of semi-desert vegetation groupings) are a good indicator of modern climatic changes. To achieve this goal, the spatial structure and the current state of the arid landscapes of the Northwestern Caspian Sea in the territory of the KBS have been studied. The analysis of the biological diversity of species was carried out. Also the characteristics of the common features of seasonal dynamics of landscapes were studied. Moreover, trends of climatic changes in the landscape structure of the territory and trends in anthropogenic transformation of arid landscapes of the region were identified. It has been revealed that the main reasons for the reduction of biodiversity are habitat fragmentation, the introduction of alien species, the settlement of native species outside the range, ecotonization and “islandization” of pasture ecosystems, and the displacement of range boundaries. Since the goal of preserving the components of vegetation biodiversity is to reduce the pressures caused by climate change, adaptation measures should be aimed at reducing the rate of fragmentation and degradation of pasture landscapes. Monitoring observations have shown that over the last 20-century period there have been rhythmically repeating changes in climate and soil and vegetation cover, which indicates high mobility of vegetation. It has been established that the contribution of anthropogenic land degradation to desertification is confirmed by a significant linear trend in interannual fluctuations in indicators of pasture digression in the region. It has been established that the contribution of anthropogenic land degradation to desertification is confirmed by a significant linear trend in interannual fluctuations in indicators of pasture digression in the region. Due to excessive pasture digression, “islands” of anthropogenic desertification are formed here, the lifespan of which is determined by human influence and precipitation fluctuations.

Research on Adhesion Pull-Off Behavior of Rigid Flat Punch and Viscoelastic Substrate

Interfacial adhesion is one of the key factors affecting the reliability of micro–nano systems. The adhesion contact mechanism is still unclear as the time-dependent viscoelasticity of soft materials. To clarify the adhesion interaction, the pull-off detachment between the rigid flat punch and viscoelastic substrate is explored considering the viscoelasticity of soft materials and rate-dependent adhesion. Taking the Lennard-Jones (L-J) potential characterizing interfacial adhesion and the Prony series defining the viscoelasticity of materials as references, the bilinear cohesion zone model (CZM) and standard Maxwell model are employed, and an adhesion analysis framework is established by combining finite element technology. The influence laws of the loading and unloading rates, material relaxation coefficients and size effect on adhesion pull-off behavior are revealed. The results show that the pull-off force is independent of the material relaxation effect and related to the unloading rate. When v^ ≥ 50 or v^ < 0.01, the pull-off force has nothing to do with the unloading rate, but when 0.01 < v^ < 50, the pull-off force increases with the increasing unloading rate. Also, it is controlled by the size effect, and the changing trend conforms to the MD-n model proposed by Jiang. The energy required for interfacial separation (i.e., effective adhesion work) is a result of the comprehensive influence of unloading rates, material properties and the relaxation effect, which is consistent with Papangelo1’s research results. In addition, we derive the critical contact radius of the transition from the Kendall solution to the strength control solution. This work not only provides a detailed solution for the interfacial adhesion behavior but also provides guidance for the application of adhesion in Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMSs).

Assessing climatic change impacts on mangrove structural dynamics on the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf

Abstract. Monitoring long-term trends in structural changes within mangrove ecosystems is essential for understanding their response to climate change and devising effective adaptation strategies in coastal regions. This study examines changes in mangrove patchiness within the Hara Biosphere Reserve (HBR) along the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf (PG) over a 31-year period (1986-2017), focusing on variations in rainfall patterns and drought occurrences. Employing a 35-year time series of monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values alongside satellite imagery analysis, trends in both the number of patches (NP) and the Largest Patch Index (LPI) were assessed at the mangrove stand level. The analysis reveals a significant correlation between structural changes in mangroves and drought events. Pre-1998, characterized by wetter conditions, witnessed a decrease in both NP and LPI, indicating patch expansion and habitat extension. Conversely, post-1998, during drought periods, both indices increased, indicating habitat degradation due to heightened drought intensity. Pre-1998 structural changes in the HBR signify habitat expansion, with increased patch extent and core areas reflecting enhanced structural integrity. However, post-1998, a concerning trend of habitat degradation emerged, with increased NP and LPI attributed to intensified droughts. These findings highlight a transitional period marked by favourable conditions for mangrove growth followed by habitat degradation linked to increased drought intensity. This underscores the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to climate change impacts, particularly exacerbated droughts, necessitating urgent efforts for conservation and management to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem services in coastal regions.

The Determination of Factors for ICT Quality Assessment Model

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is a crucial asset in business processes and high ICT quality allows for highly efficient business processes. Measuring ICT quality is identified as a crucial step towards ensuring high-quality ICT service. Over the years several ICT assessment models have been developed and each year the factors of measurement are constantly updated. This is due to constant change in technology trends and the user requirements. Thus, any existing factors within models developed previously require review and update if necessary. Therefore, the most relevant factors for ICT assessment model are investigated in this study. Through literature review a set of updated factors are developed and expert review were used to validate the factors. Factors determined in this study are: Software System and Application, Computing Hardware, Network and Communication, Lifelong Learning organizational Governance, Ecosystem Support, Security and Official Recognition. The updated and validated factors shall help future researchers in developing a model to assess ICT compliancy for measuring readiness in providing quality ICT services.

One Year of Wastewater Surveillance in South Africa Supporting COVID-19 Clinical Findings Across Two Waves of Infection

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been an important tool for the detection of COVID-19 outbreaks. The retrospective analysis of COVID-19 data is vital to understand the spread and impact of the virus as well as to inform future planning and response efforts. In this study, we evaluated the SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater from 21 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the City of Cape Town (South Africa) over a period of 12 months and compared the (inactive) SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in wastewater between wave 2 (November 2020 to January 2021) and wave 3 (June 2021 to September 2021). The SARS-CoV-2 RNA expression was quantified in wastewater using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) by targeting the nucleocapsid (N) gene, and the resultant signal was normalized to the WWTP design capacity and catchment size. Our findings show that the maximum SARS-CoV-2 RNA signal was significantly higher in wave 3 than in wave 2 (p < 0.01). The duration of wave 3 (15 weeks) was longer than that of wave 2 (10 weeks), and the wastewater surveillance data supported the clinical findings, as evidenced by the two distinct waves. Furthermore, the data demonstrated the importance of long-term wastewater surveillance as a key indicator of changing trends.

Pegylated liposomal doxorubicin in partially platinum-sensitive, platinum-resistant, or platinum-refractory ovarian cancer: a prospective study.

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) for patients with partially platinum-sensitive, platinum-resistant, or platinum-refractory ovarian cancer. Patients with partially platinum-sensitive, platinum-resistant, or platinum-refractory ovarian cancer were recruited in this prospective, open-label, single-arm, multicenter study. Eligible patients were given 4-6 cycles of PLD (40mg/m2 on day 1, every 4 weeks). The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary endpoints were overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), quality of life, and safety. Exploratory endpoints included the change trend of CA125 and platinum-free interval. Between June 2017 and November 2020, 167 eligible patients were included in the full analysis set. The median PFS and OS were 6.8 months (95% CI, 4.4-9.3 months) and 19.1 months (95% CI, 15.0-23.3 months), respectively. The ORR and DCR were 32.3% and 60.5%, respectively. The ORR (62.3 vs 22.5%) and DCR (84.9 vs 60.7%) of patients with a CA125 decrease after the first cycle were significantly higher than those without a CA125 decrease (all P < .05). Grade ≥ 3 and serious adverse events were reported in 9.9% and 3.9% of patients, respectively. No treatment-related death was observed. PLD showed promising efficacy and manageable tolerability in patients with partially platinum-sensitive, platinum-resistant, or platinum-refractory ovarian cancer.ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR1900022962.

Long-term trends and future projections of larynx cancer burden in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 using GBD data

Larynx cancer poses a significant public health challenge in China, with rising incidence and mortality rates over the past decades. Understanding the long-term trends and underlying factors is crucial for effective intervention and policy formulation. Data were utilized from the global burden of disease (GBD) Study 2021 to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) due to larynx cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis identified key changes in trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and decomposition analysis quantified the contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth to these trends. Our study found a significant increase in the incidence and prevalence of larynx cancer in China, particularly among males. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for males were substantially higher than those for females. Decomposition analysis revealed that aging was the primary driver of increasing incidence and mortality rates, while epidemiological changes had a mitigating effect. Joinpoint analysis identified periods of rapid urbanization and economic growth as key turning points for increased incidence. Bayesian APC models projected a continued upward trend in incidence rates up to 2030. The rising burden of larynx cancer in China underscores the need for targeted public health interventions, including smoking cessation programs, environmental pollution control, and early detection strategies. Addressing gender disparities and implementing effective prevention measures are crucial to mitigating the impact of larynx cancer in China.

An evaluation of soil carbon models and their role on finding ways to net-zero carbon in agricultural systems

The estimation of changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key issue for national green-house gasses (GHG) inventories, climate change mitigation programs and the estimation of carbon footprint of farm products in life cycle assessments. Any strategy related to net-zero carbon in agricultural systems needs to quantify the SOC balance. In this way, SOC models help decision makers involved in agriculture to understand the dynamics of the SOC and the interaction between all variables related to soil, climate, land use, and management, to design the best solution to reduce emissions or enable carbon sequestration. Likewise, it is important to identify suitable models for the region. This study aims to address three main subjects: a) a discussion on the importance of SOC estimation for GHG inventories and the carbon footprint of crops, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 method and AMG model; b) an evaluation and brief description of the IPCC “Steady State Method” (SSM), using experimental data from two sites in Argentina, comparing these results to AMG and RothC models (both previously validated at those sites); and c) a brief discussion about the potential use of SOC models for what-if management scenarios, their real limitations and future research needs. The three models were consistent in predicting the impact of tillage and the long-term trends in changes in SOC stocks under different management practices. The SSM model was evaluated for the first time in Argentina and performed even better than the other two models. It was consistent with the observed values, when predicting the effect of tillage system under different crop rotations, including pasture systems. Regarding efficiencies of the models, they showed acceptable Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was also acceptable between 3 % and 7 %, within a range of 4–5 Mg C.ha−1. Therefore, the SSM model proved to be a valuable tool to estimate SOC trends for crop and pasture rotations under different management scenarios (i.e., tillage systems and fertilization), to identify best practices that allow for a zero or positive SOC balance, in two different soil and climate conditions of the Pampean Region of Argentina. In our study, the SSM did have a better fit to the data and, furthermore, this Tier 2 method is simpler than the Tier 3 models, and, therefore, is advantageous for conducting regional assessments and GHG inventories.

The Trend of Changes in Adiponectin, Resistin, and Adiponectin–Resistin Index Values in Type 2 Diabetic Patients with the Development of Metabolic Syndrome

The Trend of Changes in Adiponectin, Resistin, and Adiponectin–Resistin Index Values in Type 2 Diabetic Patients with the Development of Metabolic Syndrome

Multi-stage Evolution of Pore Structure of Microwave-treated Sandstone: Insights from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance

Microwave fracturing has great potential in improving the efficiency of hard rock breaking. However, the pore evolution, which can be regarded as the damage accumulation and progressive failure of the rock subjected to microwave irradiation, remains unclear. In this study, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is employed to investigate the pore evolution and fracture mechanism of the sandstone under different microwave power levels. The results show that the pore evolution of the specimens, including distribution of pore size, the weight in volume of various-sized pore, and porosity, exhibits different changing trends under various microwave power levels. The pore evolution of the specimens under microwave irradiation can be categorized into four phases: overall pore expansion, localized pore closure in the internal region, micro-cracks propagation induced by thermal stress, and macro-cracking (or melting). Moreover, pore evolution also plays a crucial role in the decomposition and evaporation of bound water, particularly when the specimens experience fractures triggered by thermal stress induced by the microwave treatment (TSIMT). The employing of NMR imaging (NMRI) description also provides an auxiliary and effective illustration on the pore evolution of the specimens under microwave irradiation. Finally, the mechanism of microwave-assisted rock breaking under different power levels is comprehensively discussed based on the NMR results from a microscopic perspective. It is anticipated that the findings of this study can provide valuable insights for enhancing the efficiency of microwave-assisted rock breaking.

Change Patterns of Major Functional Components in the Loquat Summer Shoot Leaf during Annual Growth

Loquat leaves are widely used in traditional Chinese medicine and food processing as raw materials. To provide a theoretical basis for suitable harvesting periods based on the utilization of distinct components, the change patterns of major functional components in the annual growth of loquat leaves were investigated. In this study, the summer loquat leaves were sampled regularly during their annual growth, and the contents of seven main functional components and 13 monomer components were determined. The results showed that there was a regular change pattern for major functional components during loquat annual growth from Jul 2020 to Jun 2021; however, the change trend was different among different components. Among them, the contents of total flavonoids, total phenols, total triterpenoid acids, vitamin C, asiatic acid, quillaic acid, corosolic acid, and chlorogenic acid presented an overall upward trend. The content of maslinic acid showed a downward trend, whereas the content of neochlorogenic acid did not change much throughout the whole growth period. The content changes in the loquat leaves were affected by the light durations and temperature changes in different seasons, with mutual transit during the flowering and fruit growth processes. Sampling in May to June was found to be a most optimized option when applied in Chinese medicine processing; however, the degree of fibrosis is another indicator when it is used as food raw material. This study revealed the change pattern of major functional components of loquat leaves during the annual growth period and provides a theoretical basis for the reasonable harvesting period of loquat leaves as raw materials for processing different types of products.

The global, regional, and national patterns of change in the burden of congenital birth defects, 1990–2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 and forecast to 2040

Congenital birth defects (CBDs) present enormous challenges to global healthcare systems. These conditions severely impact patients' health and underscore issues related to socioeconomic development and healthcare accessibility and efficiency. Previous studies have been geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data for four major congenital birth defects-congenital heart defects (CHD), neural tube defects (NTDs), digestive congenital anomalies (DCAs), and Down syndrome (DS) from 1990 to 2021, emphasizing health inequalities. The goal is to offer scientific evidence for optimizing resource allocation, focusing on high-burden populations, and reducing disease burden. This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of CBDs and their changes from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. To conduct a more focused analysis, four specific CBDs were selected: CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS. DALYs were used as the metric, combined with the sociodemographic index (SDI). Analyses included the slope index of inequality and concentration index to measure health inequalities, frontier analysis to estimate achievable outcomes based on development levels, decomposition analysis to identify drivers of disease burden changes, Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict future disease burden trends. Compared to 1990, the global burden of the CBDs in 2021 showed a downward trend. Males had a higher burden than females, with the highest burden observed in low-SDI regions. When examining CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS specifically, trends in burden changes varied across different CBDs at the global, regional, and national levels. Frontier analysis revealed potential for burden improvement in various countries and territories. Decomposition analysis highlighted differences in disease burden drivers across SDI regions, showing the greatest improvement observed in low-SDI regions. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a downward trend in DALYs burden across SDI regions, and BAPC model predictions suggested that the burden of CBDs will continue to decline in the future. CBDs pose a major challenge to global public health. Despite an overall decline in disease burden, health inequalities remain prominent, particularly in countries and territories with lower levels of development. Future public health interventions should focus on countries and territories with low levels of development by optimizing healthcare resource allocation, improving basic health infrastructure, enhancing health education, and reducing disease burden inequalities. Global collaboration and data sharing are essential to promote a lifecycle management model for CBDs research and treatment, advancing global health development. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82270310) and the Jiangsu Provincial Key Research and Development Program (No. BE2023662).

Viscoelastic study of cement and emulsified asphalt mortar under temperature variations based on a novel variable-order fractional Maxwell model

Cement and emulsified asphalt (CA) mortar is a critical viscoelastic component of ballastless track systems, exhibiting pronounced temperature sensitivity. However, accurately predicting the mechanical responses of CA mortar due to temperature fluctuations remains a challenge. This work proposes a novel variable-order fractional Maxwell (VOFM) model to investigate the viscoelastic properties of CA mortar under temperature variations. The VOFM model is numerically solved using a time-varying coefficient ladder (TVL) model. The VOFM model is validated by comparing with both numerical integration methods and experimental data. The basic properties of the VOFM model, the viscoelastic responses of CA mortar under varying temperatures and alternating stress are systematically investigated. The results show that the mechanical properties of VOFM model agree with the FM model when time-dependent parameters of the VOFM model correspond to that of the FM model. Moreover, high temperatures have a promoting effect on the deformation of CA mortar under both alternating and constant stress conditions. The peak amplitude of CA mortar strain under practical varying temperature and stress loading correlates with the trend of temperature changes.

Predicting the Global Potential Suitable Areas of Sweet Osmanthus (Osmanthus fragrans) Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios.

Osmanthus fragrans is a valuable landscaping tree that is appreciated worldwide. However, the optimal environmental conditions for O. fragrans cultivation have yet to be studied in detail, which hinders the preservation of wild resources of this plant and its commercial exploitation. The maximum entropy model was applied to assess the significance of environment variables influencing O. fragrans distribution. Combining data from 629 global distribution points for O. fragrans, predictions were made on the potential effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of suitable habitats for this species in the present and the future. The results indicated that O. fragrans preferred a warm and humid growing environment. Under the current climatic conditions, the potential habitats for O. fragrans were mostly located in the eastern coastal areas of the continents at medium and low latitudes. The main environmental variables that affected its distribution were the precipitation during the warmest quarter, the temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. The analysis indicated that the continuation of current trends in climate change will result in the further reduction of suitable habitats for O. fragrans growth, and the global centroid will shift to the southeast. These findings provided insight into the impact of climate change on O. fragrans habitats, as well as provide guidance for the conservation of wild resources of this species and the breeding of more climate change-resistant varieties for the future.

Regional Disparities and Trends in Venous Thromboembolism Mortality in Spain (1999-2022)

Aim: This study aims to analyse trends in Venous thromboembolism (VTE) mortality in the Spanish Autonomous Communities (ACs) from 1999 to 2022, with a focus on identifying regional disparities and informing targeted public health interventions.Methods: Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated using the European standard population as a reference. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify significant changes in mortality trends, and geographical analysis was conducted using Bayesian inference to assess regional variations in mortality risk.Results: From 1999 to 2022, Spain recorded 59,515 VTE-related deaths, with a higher proportion in women (59.4%) compared to men (40.6%). On a nationwide scale, VTE ASMRs showed a general decline for both men and women, with rates decreasing from 11.0 to 5.1 per 100,000 in men and from 9.2 to 4.4 per 100,000 in women. However, this decline was not uniform across all regions or demographic groups. Notably, mortality rates among younger individuals, particularly men, increased during the study period, highlighting the need for targeted interventions. Analysis revealed significant regional disparities, with higher mortality risks observed in Extremadura, Aragon, Navarre, and Andalusia, particularly for women.Conclusions: This study provides valuable insights into the complex landscape of VTE mortality in Spain. While the overall decline in mortality is encouraging, persistent regional disparities and rising rates among younger individuals underscore the need for ongoing surveillance and targeted interventions.

Policy, innovation, market or behavior driven effects: energy green transition and environmental management in Chinese heterogeneous cities

Energy green transition (EGT) is currently one of the main measures for countries around the world to address the contradiction between economic growth and increasingly deteriorating environmental and climate issues. Cities are the center of energy consumption. The key to EGT lies in urban energy green transition. Therefore, the focus of this study is on the driving mechanism of urban EGT. Firstly, the spatial-temporal characteristic of EGT in Chinese heterogeneous cities is analyzed by using methods such as gravity model. Secondly, the possible paths includes policy driven, innovation driven, market driven, and behavior driven for urban EGT are discussed through theoretical analysis. Finally, combined with panel data of 236 Chinese cities in 2007-2022, this study empirically analyzes the complex driving mechanism of urban EGT. Results show that: (1) The EGT in Chinese cities is continuing. From the perspective of urban heterogeneous, EGT in 1-tier and 2-tier cities is significantly faster than that in 3-, 4-, and 5-tier cities. The EGT speed in eastern cities is the fastest, while that in northeastern cities is the slowest. The difficulty of EGT in energy resource-based cities is actually the greatest. From the perspective of spatial features, the spatial center of EGT in Chinese cities generally shows a changing trend from northwest to southeast. (2) Policy driven, innovation driven, market driven, and behavior driven constitute the complex driving mechanism of urban EGT, and policy driven is the primary driving force for this round of EGT. (3) Positive effect of economic development level and education level improvement on EGT in Chinese cities is significant while resource endowment and population agglomeration level exhibit significant inhibitory effects. (4) There are significant differences in the core driving force for EGT in heterogeneous cities. Both policy driven effect and market driven effect have the highest impact in 1- and 2-tier cities. Innovation driven effect, market driven effect, and behavior driven effect are only significant in eastern and central cities. In energy resource-based cities, innovation driven effect of green innovation is not significant. This study can assist government departments better in formulating relevant policies to support energy transition, promote technological innovation, design market mechanisms, and guide energy consumption behavior.

Factors Associated With Transmission Across Three Waves of SARS-CoV-2 in a Prospective Community-Based Study of Households With School-Aged Children-Dane County, Wisconsin, 2020-2022.

Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is a driver of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding factors that contribute to secondary infection risks (SIRs) can define changing trends and inform public health policies. The ORegon CHild Absenteeism due to Respiratory Disease Study (ORCHARDS) prospectively monitors respiratory viruses within the Oregon School District (OSD) in southcentral Wisconsin. Households with students who had ≥ 2 respiratory symptoms were eligible and opted to participate in ORCHARDS. Between October 28, 2020, and May 16, 2022, all household members provided self-collected nasal specimens on days 0, 7, and 14 for SARS-CoV-2 detection using real-time reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction. We used logistic regression to investigate individual- and household-level characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, 127 households comprising 572 individuals (48% female; 52% male; 0.4% nonbinary; 77% ≥ 18 years) had at least one detection of SARS-CoV-2. The overall SIR was 47% and decreased over time (pre-Delta = 72% [95% CI: 58%-83%]; Delta = 51% [40%-63%]; and Omicron = 41% [36%-47%]). Odds of household transmission were 63% lower during the Omicron period compared with the pre-Delta period (OR = 0.36 [95% CI: 0.13-0.94] p = 0.037). Greater household density (members/bedroom) was significantly associated with household transmission during the Omicron period (OR = 6.8, [2.19-21.37] p = 0.001). Index case age, illness severity, and individual symptoms were not significantly associated with odds of household transmission. Greater household density was associated with a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but the risk declined over time with subsequent variants. Interplay between variants, prior infection, and individual/household factors may identify modifiable factors (e.g., behavior and vaccination) to reduce future transmission risk.