Trend Of Anomalies Research Articles

Prevalence and Trends of Quantitative Bone Anomalies in Kidney Transplant Patients: A Single-Center Experience

Prevalence and Trends of Quantitative Bone Anomalies in Kidney Transplant Patients: A Single-Center Experience

Near‐surface wind variability in Prydz Bay and Amery Ice Shelf region, East Antarctica: A four‐decade SOM analysis

AbstractNear‐surface wind fields in the Prydz Bay and Amery Ice Shelf region of East Antarctica play a crucial role in the formation and variability of Antarctic Bottom Water, a cold, dense water mass that sinks and spreads across the deep ocean basins influencing ocean circulation and modulating earth's climate system. This study investigates the primary modes of variability of these wind fields using the self‐organizing map (SOM) method and data from the latest version of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ReAnalyses (ERA5), spanning four decades from 1979 to 2020. While the wind field climatology, characterized by small seasonal variation, is dominated by katabatic and large‐scale forcing, the spatial patterns of the primary variability modes are mainly influenced by synoptic system activities. The overall trend in annual wind speed anomalies is positive across the study region, with the exception of the southwestern part and central Prydz Bay. However, significant trends are observed in only two out of nine SOM nodes (nodes 4 and 9), which collectively explain less than 30% of the averaged trends over the region. The interannual variability in the seasonal occurrences of certain nodes is linked to several well‐known climate modes, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and Zonal Wavenumber 3. Our results provide a reference for forecasting the occurrence frequency of specific patterns, which could help mitigate the impact of extreme wind events through improved forecasting.

Isotope effect on the anomalies of water: A corresponding states analysis.

Light and heavy water show similar anomalies in thermodynamic and dynamic properties, with a consistent trend of anomalies occurring at higher temperatures in heavy water. Viscosity also increases faster upon cooling in heavy water, causing a giant isotope effect, with a viscosity ratio near 2.4 at 244K. While a simple temperature shift apparently helps in collapsing experimental data for both isotopes, it lacks a clear justification, changes value with the property considered, and requires additional ad hoc scaling factors. Here, we use a corresponding states analysis based on the possible existence of a liquid-liquid critical point in supercooled water. This provides a coherent framework that leads to the collapse of thermodynamic data. The ratio between the dynamic properties of the isotopes is strongly reduced. In particular, the decoupling between viscosity η and self-diffusion D, measured as a function of temperature T by the Stokes-Einstein ratio Dη/T, is found to collapse after applying the corresponding states analysis. Our results are consistent with simulations and suggest that the various isotope effects mirror the one on the liquid-liquid transition.

Prevalence and prenatal diagnosis of congenital eye anomalies: A population-based study.

To estimate the prevalence and trend of congenital eye anomalies (CEAs) and the rate of prenatal diagnosis over a 10-year period. Retrospective population-based registry study. All maternity units in Paris, France, from 2010 to 2020. A cohort of 115 cases of CEA detected among all live births or stillbirths, after 22 weeks of gestation, and terminations of pregnancy. The total prevalence of CEAs and prevalence of each specific CEA were calculated using 95% Poisson exact confidence intervals. The total prevalence of CEAs and the proportion of prenatal diagnosis of CEAs, and their evolution. The prevalence of CEAs was 4.1 (95% CI 3.4-5.0) cases, ranging between 3.1 and 5.7 cases, per 10 000 births. CEAs were prenatally diagnosed in 23.5% of cases. CEAs were bilateral in 51 cases (44.3%), unilateral in 43 cases (37.4%) and missing or unknown in 21 cases (18.3%). Of those with CEAs, 20.9% had genetic anomalies and 53.0% had at least one other extraocular anomaly. When detected prenatally, CEAs were bilateral in 15 cases (55.6%), unilateral in eight cases (29.6%) and missing in the four remaining cases. The prenatal diagnosis rate of CEAs associated with genetic anomalies, CEA cases with at least one other malformation and isolated CEA cases were 29.2%, 26.2% and 13.3%, respectively. In total, 115 cases of CEAs were observed during the study period, representing a total prevalence of 4.1 cases per 10 000 births. The overall prenatal detection rate of CEAs in our population was 23.5%, which dropped to 13.3% for isolated cases of CEAs.

Controls on Bending‐Related Faulting Offshore of the Alaska Peninsula

AbstractOceanic plates experience extensive normal faulting as they bend and subduct, enabling fracturing of the incoming lithosphere. Debate remains about the relative importance of pre‐existing faults, plate curvature and other factors controlling the extent and style of bending‐related faulting. The subduction zone off the Alaska Peninsula is an ideal place to investigate controls on bending faulting as the orientation of the abyssal‐hill fabric with respect to the trench and plate curvature vary along the margin. Here, we characterize faulting between longitudes 161°W and 155°W using newly collected multibeam bathymetry data. We also use a compilation of seismic reflection data to constrain patterns of sediment thickness on the incoming plate. Although sediment thickness increases over 1 km from 156°W to 160°W, most sediments were deposited prior to the onset of bending faulting and thus should have limited impact on the expression of bend‐related fault strikes and throws in bathymetry data. Where magnetic anomalies trend subparallel to the trench (<30°) west of ∼156°W, bending faults parallel magnetic anomalies, implying that bending faults reactivate pre‐existing structures. Where magnetic anomalies are highly oblique (>30°) to the trench east of 156°W, no bending faults are observed. Summed fault throws increase to the west, including where pre‐existing structure orientations are constant (between 157 and 161°W), suggesting that another factor such as the increase in slab curvature must influence bending faulting. However, the westward increase in summed fault throws is more abrupt than expected for gradual changes in slab bending alone, suggesting potential feedbacks between pre‐existing structures, slab dip, and faulting.

Enhancing Precision in Magnetic Map Interpolation for Regions with Sparse Data

The high-precision magnetic anomaly reference map is a prerequisite for magnetic navigation and magnetic target detection. However, it is difficult to reflect the detailed characteristics of magnetic anomaly changes by using conventional data interpolation and reconstruction in the areas where magnetic anomaly gradients vary drastically and the distribution of magnetic survey lines is sparse. To solve the problem, an improved variogram of the Kriging interpolation method is proposed to improve the spatial resolution of magnetic anomaly feature. This method selects the spherical variogram model and uses the third power of the lag distance to fit the trend of magnetic anomalies. Meanwhile, the second power of the lag distance is introduced to solve the problem of under-fitting between the lag distance and the value of the variation function near the origin of the sparse variogram graph of measured data. Hyperparameter λ is introduced to compensate for the unbalance caused by the introduction of quadratic lag in the spherical variogram model. The results of several sets of simulated and measured data show that the interpolation accuracy of the proposed method is improved by 30–50% compared with the traditional Gaussian, spherical, and exponential models in the region where the magnetic anomaly gradient changes drastically, and the proposed model provides an effective way to build a high-precision magnetic anomaly reference map of the complex magnetic background under the condition of sparse survey lines.

Delineation of geological structures of Arta geothermal prospect in Djibouti based on the gravity data analysis and interpretation

The Arta geothermal prospect is located in the southern part of the Gulf of Tadjoura, 45 km west of Djibouti city. This study uses 398 gravity data stations collected by the Djiboutian Office for Geothermal Energy Development (ODDEG) from February to May 2018. The geothermal activity of the Arta area is revealed by surface thermal manifestations, such as near-boiling fumaroles (98 °C). This study aims to delineate the subsurface geological structures responsible for surface geothermal manifestations and define the depth and geometry of the geothermal reservoir in the study area. A Complete Bouguer anomaly was obtained using a Bouguer density of 2.55 g/cm3, derived as an average density from the F-H, G-H and CVUR methods. A regional and residual anomaly trend separation method was applied to focus on the structures of interest in the study area, and a residual Bouguer anomaly map was obtained. Edge detection filters, including Horizontal Derivatives (HD) and an Improved Normalized Horizontal tilt angle (INH), were used to examine the gravity data for edge identification. The density was then modelled in three-dimensional (3-D), utilizing the VOXI Earth Modeling Tool performed in Geosoft Oasis Montaj. The model was constrained using estimated lower (-0.35 g/cm3) and upper (0.65 g/cm3) bound density values from the expected density values of the local geology. The Bouguer and residual anomaly maps show a high-density body in the central part, surrounded by low-anomaly structures. The high-density body is interpreted as an intrusive body covering the basement of the study area. The anomalies imaged from HD and INH indicate a significant number of high gradient anomalies trending N-S, NE-SW, and NW-SE, corresponding to the trend of the geological structures of the Arta geothermal prospect. These high-gradient anomalies can be interpreted as faults, contact zones, or geological boundaries. The 3-D model imaged a high-density anomaly trending N-S in the central part at 2 and 3 km below sea level with a volume of about 126 km3 and an average block density of 2.66 g/cm3, interpreted as magma intrusion or intrusive volcanic rocks. The 3-D vertical cross-sections revealed that the intrusion is visible at depth and that some intrusions could be seen at the surface and near surface. The findings of this gravity study will contribute to the overall and future geothermal exploration and development of the Arta geothermal prospect.

The Respondence of Wave on Sea Surface Temperature in the Context of Global Change

Several aspects of global climate change, e.g., the rise of sea level and water temperature anomalies, suggest the advantages of studying wave distributions. In this study, WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) (version 6.07), which is a well-known numerical wave model, was employed for simulating waves over global seas from 1993–2020. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), current and sea level were used as the forcing fields in the WW3 model. The validation of modelling simulations against the measurements from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys and Haiyang-2B (HY-2B) altimeter yielded a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.49 m and 0.63 m, with a correlation (COR) of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively. The terms calculated by WW3-simulated waves, i.e., breaking waves, nonbreaking waves, radiation stress, and Stokes drift, were included in the water temperature simulation by a numerical circulation model named the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model (sbPOM). The water temperature was simulated in 2005–2015 using the high-quality Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data. The validation of sbPOM-simulated results against the measurements obtained from the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) buoys yielded a RMSE of 1.12 °C and a COR of 0.99. By the seasonal variation, the interrelation of the currents, sea level anomaly, and significant wave heights (SWHs) were strong in the Indian Ocean. In the strong current areas, the distribution of the sea level was consistent with the SWHs. The monthly variation of SWHs, currents, sea surface elevation, and sea level anomalies revealed that the upward trends of SWHs and sea level anomalies were consistent from 1993–2015 over the global ocean. In the Indian Ocean, the SWHs were obviously influenced by the SST and sea surface wind stress. The rise of wind stress intensity and sea level enlarges the growth of waves, and the wave-induced terms strengthen the heat exchange at the air–sea layer. It was assumed that the SST oscillation had a negative response to the SWHs in the global ocean from 2005–2015. This feedback indicates that the growth of waves could slow down the amplitude of water warming.

Interannual modulations in sea level rise over tropical Northwest Pacific in satellite altimeter measurements

The sea level rise (SLR) estimates in tropical Pacific are dominantly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variations in limited data sets such as satellite altimeter measurements. The Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) trends during 1993–2012 (extensively reported) and 1993–2020 significantly differ with substantial weakening during 1993–2020 over tropical Northwest Pacific (NWP; 0–15°N; 120°E −170°E). An ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) approach is employed to derive residual SLA by removing the high-frequency SLA variations including the interannual and interdecadal variations. The linear trends estimated from residual SLA provides a better estimate for the trends in SLA. The residual trends have greatly reduced the observed differences in SLA trends between 1993–2012 and 1993–2020. Our analysis suggests that it is the interdecadal variations in SLA that caused the weakening of overall trend during 1993–2020. In particular, the interdecadal trend in SLA over NWP is ≈ −1.73 mm year−1, whereas the trends in total and the residual SLA are estimated as 4.26 mm year−1 and 6.32 mm year−1, respectively. Furthermore, it is observed that there is an in-phase connection between the interannual and the interdecadal variations of SLA associated with La Niña compared with El Niño. Therefore, the non-occurrence of La Niña after 2012 to 2020 possibly has contributed for the decreasing trend in interdecadal variations due to its in-phase connection. In short, the complexity of variations in SLA at different timescales over NWP and the Pacific significantly influences the SLA trend estimates.

Prevalence, Pattern, and Outcome of Congenital Anomalies Admitted to a Neonatal Unit in a Low-Income Country—a Ten-Year Retrospective Study

ObjectiveThe incidence of congenital abnormalities is highest in low-and-middle-income countries. However, the prevalence, spectrum, trends of neonatal congenital anomalies and their admission outcomes have not been well explored. This study was a 10 year retrospective hospital-based research in a low-income country to address the above.MethodsAll infants hospitalized in the Special Care Baby Unit at the Cape Coast Teaching Hospital in Ghana, between 1st January 2010 and 31st December 2019, had their demographic, obstetric, and clinical data recorded.ResultsOver the decade, 236 neonates with congenital abnormalities were admitted to the unit, accounting for 2.8% of total neonatal admissions and 8.6 per 1000 births. Mortality occurred in 33.2% of neonates with congenital abnormalities, corresponding to 4.6% of all neonatal deaths. Mortality was significantly associated with place of delivery and gravidity of more than five. The commonest anomalies were in the nervous system, particularly neural tube defects, followed by suspected chromosomal abnormalities and then cardiac defects. Neonates with cardiac defects had a higher chance of dying. Health center/clinic delivery proffered a better survival than hospital delivery, but this should be interpreted with caution.ConclusionNeural tube defects were the most predominant anomalies; hence, intensification of preconception and antenatal folic acid supplementation is pivotal towards their reduction. Making prenatal screening for early detection of fetal anomalies an integral part of routine antenatal care is also essential. This research was conducted in a single center and did not include stillbirths and abortions so cannot give an accurate estimation of the number of congenital abnormalities in the population. A national registry of congenital anomalies is recommended.

The urban climate of the largest cities of the European Arctic

Recent studies have found intense and persistent positive temperature anomalies associated with urban areas in high northern latitudes. However, understanding the intensity and variability of urban heat islands (UHI) in these regions remains limited. Here we study the urban climate of the seven largest cities in the European Arctic. These cities with populations ranging from 50,000 to nearly 300,000 span four countries and three bioclimatic zones in northern Fennoscandia. They include coastal and inland cities—and have complex local geography associated with topography and water bodies. We analyze land surface temperature (LST) satellite remote-sensing data with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2000 to 2020. The aim is to assess the intensity and temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability and trends of LST anomalies to learn about surface UHI development over different time frames in the urban Arctic. We observed persistent urban temperature anomalies in every season in the range of 1–5 °C, with the highest values for the largest city Murmansk (Russia). There is a strong inverse relationship between surface UHI intensity and its temporal variability: the more substantial the surface UHI, the more stable it is and the lower its temporal variability. Murmansk and Tromsø (Norway) have the highest thermal anomalies showing relatively low temporal variability, whereas the surface UHI in Bodø (Norway) is low and very volatile. We found no general direction of surface UHI change in the long term, as statistically significant changes were identified for only 10 of 56 cases. The study also suggests that in addition to the size (population) of the city, the presence of compact and dense urban infrastructure causes strong and stable urban temperature anomalies and has a more significant impact than the geographical setting of the city.

Fire Dynamics in an Emerging Deforestation Frontier in Southwestern Amazonia, Brazil

Land management and deforestation in tropical regions cause wildfires and forest degradation, leading to a loss of ecosystem services and global climate regulation. The objective of the study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial extent and patterns of burned areas in a new deforestation frontier in the Amazonas state. The methodology applied cross-referenced burned area data from 2003 to 2019 with climate, land cover, private properties and Protected Areas information and performed a series of statistical tests. The influence of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) contributed to a decreasing rainfall anomalies trend and increasing temperature anomalies trend. This process intensified the dry season and increased the extent of annual natural vegetation affected by fires, reaching a peak of 681 km2 in 2019. The results showed that the increased deforestation trend occurred mostly in public lands, mainly after the new forest code, leading to an increase in fires from 66 to 84% in 2019. The methods developed here could identify fire extent, trends, and relationship with land cover change and climate, thus pointing to priority areas for preservation. The conclusion presented that policy decisions affecting the Amazon Forest must include estimates of fire risk and impact under current and projected future climates.

MARINE GEOMAGNETIC ANOMALY BELT AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO THE REMNANT ARCS IN THE NORTHWESTERN JAVA SEA, INDONESIA

The continuous marine geomagneticsurvey within a timeintervalof1-secondsampling and a precision of 0.1 nT was conducted in the northwestern Java Sea to identify and interpret the general trend of total marine magnetic anomalies and the possibility related to thegeological resourcepotential. These magnetic data were then processed according to the formula corrected and applied to marine magnetic data. The total marine magnetic anomalies of the northwestern Java Sea indicate a well-defined lateral trend belt of anomaly contours. Anomalies are divided into four delineation zones: Zones I, II, III, and IV. A preliminary analysis of these anomalies led to the interpretation, reflecting the residual of a slightly east-west trending geological body underneath.Examination of magnetic anomalies suggests Zone I and IV characterize a basinalarea, Zone II depicts a granitic belt, and Zone III describes a Cretaceousmagmatic arc system in the east that extends from Middle Java across the Java SeathroughSouthern Kalimantan. These magnetic anomalies seem to coincide with the free air gravity anomalies data derived from TOPEX satellite data.

Worldwide analysis of reef surveys sorts coral taxa by associations with recent and past heat stress

Coral reefs around the world are under threat from anomalous heat waves that are causing the widespread decline of hard corals. Different coral taxa are known to have different sensitivities to heat, although variation in susceptibilities have also been observed within the same species living in different environments. Characterizing such taxa-specific variations is key to enforcing efficient reef conservation strategies. Here, we combine worldwide-reef-survey data with remote sensed environmental variables to evaluate how local differences in taxa-specific coral cover are associated with past trends of thermal anomalies, as well as of non-heat related conditions. While the association with non-heat related environmental variation was seldom significant, we found that heat stress trends matched local differences in coral cover. Coral taxa were sorted based on the different patterns of associations with recent heat stress (measured the year before the survey) and past heat stress (measured since 1985). For branching, tabular and corymbose Acroporidae, reefs exposed to recent heat stress had lower coral cover than locally expected. Among such reefs, those previously exposed to frequent past heat stress displayed relatively higher coral cover, compared to those less frequently exposed. For massive and encrusting Poritidae, and for meandroid Favidae and Mussidae, we observed a negative association of coral cover with recent heat stress. However, unlike with Acroporidae, these associations were weaker and did not vary with past heat exposure. For Pocilloporidae, we found a positive association between coral cover and recent heat stress for reefs frequently exposed to past heat, while we found a negative association at reefs less frequently exposed to past heat. A similar pattern was observed for the branching Poritidae, although the associations were weaker and not statistically significant. Overall, these results show taxa-specific heat association patterns that might correspond to taxa-specific responses to past heat exposure, such as shifts in the assembly of coral communities, evolutionary adaptation or physiological acclimation.

Graptolite reflectance anomaly

Thermal maturation is traditionally evaluated based on vitrinite reflectance (VRo) measurements and its relationship to oil and gas generation and diagenetic transformation are ingrained in many basin modeling tools. However, vitrinite derives from higher land plants that evolved in Devonian. In pre-Devonian rocks graptolite reflectance (GR) is the most significant thermal index for establishing thermal maturation. Currently, conversions of GR to VRo equivalent rely on several established linear relationships. This study investigates a continuous thermal evolution of GR during artificial maturation of the Lower Ordovician (Tremadocian) Alum Shale of Estonia. We observe an anomalous breakdown in the gradient of GR versus thermal maturity. The anomaly trend is characterized as a suppressed GR gradient throughout the entire gas window (VRo: 1.0–2.0%). We attribute the suppressed measured GR trend to surface imperfection caused by the generation and evasion of hydrocarbon gases that generate nano-porosity vacuolation of the graptolite tissues. After the gas window, GR resumes its increasing trend with a similar gradient as observed in the pre-gas window, due to continued aromatization and condensation of the organic molecules. The GR anomaly indicates a potential underestimation of thermal maturity up to 0.52%VRo when applying a linear conversion formula between random GR and VRo directly. Therefore, a significant maturity correction should be applied to all legacy GR-based maturity measurements that indicate a gas or post-gas maturity rank.

Reconstructing GRACE-like time series of high mountain glacier mass anomalies

High mountain glaciers (HMGs), called the water towers of the world, are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and thus are rapidly shrinking. Monitoring and evaluating large-scale glacier and snow (GS) mass changes are critical for humans and ecosystems. Although modern gravity satellites monitor GS on a global scale, the contemporary Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow−On (GRACE−FO) missions are only able to do so at coarse spatial resolutions and are restricted by their limited observation periods. Moreover, because of the complex mechanism behind a glacier's mass balance, existing reconstruction methods for GRACE-like mass anomalies, including machine learning approaches and statistical models, cannot be applied to HMGs. Here, we propose a precipitation and temperature data-driven statistical model combining hydrology and GS processes to reconstruct GRACE-like mass anomalies of HMGs, from which the hydrological and GS signals can be further separated. The prediction and reconstruction performance of this method was consistent with the GRACE/GRACE−FO observations (the median correlation coefficient/Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency: ~0.92/0.85). Additionally, the separated GS signals agreed with the independent external data used for comparison. Compared with machine learning methods, this method better reconstructed the long-term trend of GRACE-like mass anomalies. Our study provides an acceptable method for expanding mass anomaly time series on HMGs, thereby assisting in the sustainable management and protection of water resources in their downstream areas.

Evaluation of Congenital and Chromosomal Anomalies Mortality in Turkey by Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Congenital anomalies (CAs) represents one of the main cause of fetal death, infant mortality and morbidity, and long-term disability. This study aims that it was to analyze the mortality trends of Congenital and Chromosomal Anomalies (CCAs) mortality in Turkey. This population-based observational study covers nine years in Turkey. CCAs mortality data was reported from the Turkish Statistical Institute death database by gender and age. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 population were calculated by direct standardization using the WHO Reference Population. Average annual percent change (AAPC), annual percent change (APC), and 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed using the joinpoint regression analysis. Joinpoint Regression analysis results showed a significant trend for overall CCA-type mortality over the entire observation period (AAPC=3.9%, 95% CI:1.4 to 6.4). A significant increase in the mortality rate of nervous system (in male: APC:7.6%, 95% CI: 2.2 to 13.4; in female: APC:6.6%, 95% CI:2.6 to 10.7) and circulatory system (in male: APC:4.6%, 95% CI:1.5 to 7.8; in female: APC:3.4%, 95% CI:0.8 to 6.1) were observed in both gender during the study period (p<0.001). Congenital anomalies in Turkey are a major cause of fetal and neonatal death, however, most of the anomalies can be preventable or treatable.

Pre-Seismic Temporal Integrated Anomalies from Multiparametric Remote Sensing Data

Pre-seismic anomalies have the potential to indicate imminent strong earthquakes in the short to medium terms. However, an improved understanding of the statistical significance between anomalies and earthquakes is required to develop operational forecasting systems. We developed a temporal integrated anomaly (TIA) method to obtain the temporal trends of multiparametric anomalies derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) product before earthquakes. A total of 169 global earthquakes that occurred from 2006 to 2020 and had magnitudes of ≥7.0 and focal depths of ≤70 km were used to test this new method in a retrospective manner. In addition, 169 synthetic earthquakes were randomly generated to demonstrate the suppression capacity of the TIA method for false alarms. We identified four different TIA trends according to the temporal characteristics of positive and negative TIAs. Long-term correlation analyses show that the recognition ability was 12.4–28.4% higher for true earthquakes than for synthetic earthquakes (i.e., higher than that of a random guess). Incorporating 2–5 kinds of TIAs offered the best chance of recognizing imminent shocks, highlighting the importance of multiparameter anomalies. Although the TIA trend characteristics before the earthquakes were not unique, we identified certain unexplained pre-seismic phenomena within the remote sensing data. The results provide new insight into the relationships between pre-seismic anomalies and earthquakes; moreover, the recognition ability of the proposed approach exceeds that of random guessing.

Phytoplankton and environmental drivers at a long-term offshore station in the northern Adriatic Sea (1988–2018)

A long term (1988–2018) data set of phytoplankton and physico-chemical parameters was analyzed for the first time in an offshore station of the LTER Senigallia-Susak transect (northern Adriatic Sea) not directly affected by the coastal nutrient input. The mean annual cycle of phytoplankton markedly differed from that observed in the coastal areas, showing the maximum in June and the minimum in November. The main component of phytoplankton community was represented by phytoflagellates, whose trend paralleled that of total phytoplankton. On average, diatoms peaked in July, dinoflagellates in June and coccolithophores in April. The phytoplankton maximum in summer is explained mainly by the allochthonous input of DIN and PO4 carried by the low salinity waters expanding eastward, during the stratification of water column. Resuspension processes seem to be less effective for PO4 than for DIN. The most representative phytoplankton taxa for each season as indicated by the IndVal analysis were identified and were only in part similar to those observed in the coastal area. The interannual anomaly trend showed a significant increase of temperature, DIN and phosphates. Although no significant changes were found for the total phytoplankton, a reduction of winter dinoflagellate and coccolithophore abundances was observed.

Climatological Changes in Soil Moisture during the 21st Century over the Indian Region Using CMIP5 and Satellite Observations

Climate data records of soil moisture (SM) are fundamental for improving our understanding of long-term dynamics in the coupled water, energy, and carbon cycles over land. However, many of these studies rely on models for which the errors are not yet fully understood over a region. This may have a considerable impact on the economic growth of the country if the model’s future predictions are used for studying long-term trends. Here we examined the spatial distribution of past, present, and future predictions of SM studied using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) simulations for the historical period (1850–2005) and future climate projections (2006–2099) based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Furthermore, the performance of modeled SM with the satellite AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth observation system) was studied. The modeled SM variations of 38 Global Climate Models (GCMs) show discreteness but still we observed that CESM1-CM5, CSIRO-MK3-6-0, BCC-CSM1-1, and also BCC-CSM1-1-M, NorESM1-M models performed better spatially as well as temporally in all future scenarios. However, from the spatial perspective, a large deviation was observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season from model to model. In addition, the spatial distribution of trends was highly diversified from model to model, while the Taylor diagram presents a clear view of the model’s performance with observations over the region. Skill score statistics also give the accuracy of model predictions in comparison with observations. The time series was estimated for the future trend of the SM along with the past few decades, whereas the preindustrial and industrial period changes were involved. Significant positive anomaly trends are noticed in the whole time series of SM during the future projection period of 2021–2099 using CMIP5 SM model datasets.