Climatological Changes in Soil Moisture during the 21st Century over the Indian Region Using CMIP5 and Satellite Observations

Abstract

Climate data records of soil moisture (SM) are fundamental for improving our understanding of long-term dynamics in the coupled water, energy, and carbon cycles over land. However, many of these studies rely on models for which the errors are not yet fully understood over a region. This may have a considerable impact on the economic growth of the country if the model’s future predictions are used for studying long-term trends. Here we examined the spatial distribution of past, present, and future predictions of SM studied using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) simulations for the historical period (1850–2005) and future climate projections (2006–2099) based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Furthermore, the performance of modeled SM with the satellite AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth observation system) was studied. The modeled SM variations of 38 Global Climate Models (GCMs) show discreteness but still we observed that CESM1-CM5, CSIRO-MK3-6-0, BCC-CSM1-1, and also BCC-CSM1-1-M, NorESM1-M models performed better spatially as well as temporally in all future scenarios. However, from the spatial perspective, a large deviation was observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season from model to model. In addition, the spatial distribution of trends was highly diversified from model to model, while the Taylor diagram presents a clear view of the model’s performance with observations over the region. Skill score statistics also give the accuracy of model predictions in comparison with observations. The time series was estimated for the future trend of the SM along with the past few decades, whereas the preindustrial and industrial period changes were involved. Significant positive anomaly trends are noticed in the whole time series of SM during the future projection period of 2021–2099 using CMIP5 SM model datasets.