Fertility Trends Research Articles

Agroecología del sistema de aboneras en el litoral atlántico de Honduras.

The present study constitutes an initial effort to provide baseline information about the internal workings of the mucuna system. It includes a discussion of biological mechanisms which shape this system, especially with regard to nutrient cycling. Long-term trends in soil chemical and physical fertility are also analyzed. Chronosequences (also known as space-for-time substitution schemes) form the backbone of this long-term analysis: they were constructed by taking advantage of the diversity of adoption dates of the mucuna system among farmers. All field measurements were made at the level of small observation plots selected on uniform backslopes within farmers’ fields and subjected to a periodic agronomic monitoring throughout the maize growing season. After describing general characteristics of the mucuna system, an analysis of the various pools participating in nutrient cycling is conducted. Mucuna biomass accumulation and descomposition are then discussed, as well as the dynamics of mineral nitrogen in the soil profile, an analysis which in turn helps understand maize response to limited applications of nitrogen fertilizer. Although it appears that the mucuna system is too specific to the conditions prevailing in the North coast of Honduras to be extrapolated directly. After 12 years or more of continuous use of the mucuna rotation, a result which can undoubtedly be attributed to the high yearly organic additions and efficient nutrient cycling in this system.

A Comparison of Fertility in Canada and Australia, 1926-2011

Canada and Australia are countries that, through their histories, have had many similarities as described later in the paper. However, they have two obvious differences. First, Australia has no equivalent to the province of Quebec and is not bi-lingual[B1] . If Quebec’s fertility trend was a mirror image of the trends in other provinces in Canada, this would not present a difficulty but, as we demonstrate in this article, the differences between fertility trends in Quebec and the other Canadian provinces go some way towards explaining the historical differences between the Canadian and Australian fertility trends, but only until 1960. [B1]2 nations rather than province

(Conditions and Factors of Overcoming of Depopulation in Russia)

Russian Abstract: В работе представлен новый прогноз естественного движения населения до 2030 г. с учетом новых наметившихся трендов рождаемости и смертности. Проведены: анализ депопуляции населения в 1992-2005 гг. с выводами о негативном характере снижения рождаемости и повышения смертности с тем, чтобы не допустить подобного положения в перспективе; оценка эффективности национальной программы «Здоровье населения» в 2006-2013 гг., обеспечивающей преодоление депопуляции, с выводами и предложениями для последующей демографической политики; исследование негативного тренда начавшегося сокращения рождаемости в связи со снижением числа женщин фертильного возраста. Выявление на основе опыта Франции и ряда других развитых стран возможностей смягчения негативного тренда начавшегося сокращения рождаемости в связи со снижением числа женщин фертильного возраста за счет увеличения общего коэффициента рождаемости позволило определить возможности более интенсивного сокращения смертности населения, особенно детской смертности и смертности в трудоспособном возрасте, где наши коэффициенты в 2.5-3,5 раза выше, чем в странах Западной Европы. Также был проведен анализ рекреационного комплекса России.English Abstract: This paper presents a new outlook Vital to 2030 taking into account the new emerging trends in fertility and mortality. Carried out: analysis of population depopulation in the period 1992-2005. with the conclusions of the negative nature of the decline in fertility and increase mortality, in order to avoid this situation in future; evaluation of Health national program in the 2006-2013 biennium, providing overcoming of depopulation, with the conclusions and suggestions for further demographic policy.; study the negative trend began fertility decline due to the decline in the number of women of childbearing age.Identification based on the experience of France and other developed countries to mitigate the negative trend began fertility decline due to the decline in the number of women of childbearing age by increasing the total fertility rate has allowed to determine the possibility of a more intense reduction in the working age population mortality, especially infant mortality and mortality rates, where our rates in 2.5-3,5 times higher than in Western Europe. There was also held a recreational complex analysis of Russia.

Fécondité et niveau d’instruction des femmes pendant le socialisme d’État en Europe centrale et orientale

Cet article analyse l’évolution de la descendance finale des femmes nées entre 1916 et 1960 dans sept pays d’Europe centrale et orientale (Croatie, République tchèque, Hongrie, Pologne, Roumanie, Slovaquie et Slovénie). L’effet de l’élévation du niveau d’instruction sur la fécondité des cohortes est analysé en tenant compte de l’infécondité et des naissances de rang élevé à l’aide des méthodes de décomposition et de standardisation appliquées aux données issues des recensements entre 1980 et 2000. Le recul de la fécondité des cohortes résulte de l’augmentation du niveau d’instruction d’une part et de la réduction du nombre de naissances de rang élevé d’autre part. Ces deux effets négatifs sont partiellement contrebalancés par la diminution de la proportion de femmes sans enfant. L’analyse montre que les évolutions de la fécondité des cohortes ont été largement partagées dans les différents pays, malgré des différences d’intensité. Il ne semble pas exister de tendance de fécondité spécifique aux pays socialistes, excepté la proportion de femmes sans enfant qui continue de diminuer (alors qu’elle augmente dans les pays occidentaux pour les femmes nées après 1940). En Roumanie, Pologne et Hongrie, la politique fortement pronataliste a pu ralentir la baisse des parités de rang élevé.

Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay

1. IntroductionThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the changes in the level and timing of fertility in Uruguay between 1996 and 2011, using period fertility measures by birth order. The analysis of the evolution of fertility trends by birth order can contribute to the understanding of the three main processes in the transition towards a low-fertility setting: the reduction of higher-order births through parity-specific fertility control, the increase in the proportion of women who remain childless throughout their reproductive years, and the postponement of childbearing. Each one of these processes is closely related to the others and together they typically cause the decline of the conventional period total fertility rate (TFR).With some exceptions (Batyra 2015; Miranda-Ribeiro, Rios-Neto, and Ortega 2008; Rios-Neto and Miranda-Ribeiro 2015), the analysis of the recent decline in the TFR in Latin American countries has relied exclusively on data on births by age of the mother. While several European and North American countries have long series of data on birth counts by both age of the mother and birth order, they are rare to find in Latin America countries with the exceptions of Chile, Costa Rica, and - recently - Uruguay (Lima et al. 2015; Rosero-Bixby, Castro-Martin, and Martin Garcia 2009).For this study we constructed the 1996-2011 series of births by age of the mother and birth order by using individual birth registers from the Live Birth Certificate and the Perinatal Information System of Uruguay, and estimated age- and birth-orderspecific fertility rates and summary measures of timing and quantum of fertility. We analyzed this set of indicators to demonstrate the extent of family limitation, childlessness, and postponement in the evolution of fertility for synthetic cohorts during the recent decline of the period TFR in Uruguay.Studying fertility by birth order may allow a more rigorous analysis of the demographic components of recent changes in fertility and the construction of new measures will allow the comparison of fertility decline in Uruguay with those of other, mostly European countries.As seen in several developed countries, a shift in the timing of childbearing can inflate or deflate the conventional period TFR (Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012). In a recent work, Pardo and Cabella (2014) estimated tempo-adjusted (TFR*) and tempoand parity-adjusted (TFRp*) total fertility rates for Uruguay for the years 1996-2011. They found that TFR decreased almost entirely by quantum decline, as the tempo effect only accounted for TFR change through a peak in the 3-4 worst years of the economic crisis that hit the country between 1998 and 2004 and a mild increase in the last years. In this paper we also apply tempo-adjusted period fertility indicators to compare their trends with the developments in the conventional period TFR, examining to what extent the two differed over time and how sizeable the recent impact of the tempo effect on Uruguayan TFR is. Furthermore, the use of the tempo- and parity-adjusted measures of quantum fertility by birth order would allow breaking down changes in tempo-adjusted fertility into their birth order components, possibly providing more accurate evidence on the role of parity-specific fertility declines in the observed changes in period fertility.The structure of the article is as follows. First, it provides some background on fertility decline in Latin America and the Caribbean, and specifically Uruguay. Then, the context of extensive socioeconomic and family change within which it has taken place is discussed. Next, the data and methods used are described and fertility level and timing by birth order are reported, including conditional age-specific fertility rates by birth order and summary measures on both dimensions. Finally, mean age at first birth and its standard deviation in Uruguay is compared with those of other selected countries and some final remarks are made. …

Long-Term Experiments with cropping systems: Case studies on data analysis

Data analysis for Long-Term Experiments (LTEs) with cropping systems requires some careful thinking, especially for the most complex designs, characterised by rotations with different durations and/or a different number of test-crops per rotation cycle. This paper takes an example-based approach, built upon a number of datasets, covering the main types of LTEs, with increasing levels of complexity. A procedure is outlined to build statistical models for data analysis that is useful for all LTEs characterised by the simultaneous presence of all rotation phases in all years, together with within-year replication. This procedure is based on the assumption that correct analyses can be performed separately for each year. The use of mixed models and REML estimation is advocated for model fitting with all LTEs, due to the fact that most designs are non-orthogonal, as plots may not produce data for the test-crop under study in all years. Mixed models are also useful to account for the autocorrelation of residuals over time and hints are given for the selection of an appropriate variance-covariance structure. For all our examples, variances were not constant across years and compound symmetry correlation structures with variance heterogeneity of years proved to be the best compromise between parsimony and statistical accuracy. Methods are outlined to test for the need of other more complex correlation structures and examples are also given on how to test for fixed effects, model fertility trends and assess the long-term stability of cropping systems.

The impact of armed conflict on adolescent transitions: a systematic review of quantitative research on age of sexual debut, first marriage and first birth in young women under the age of 20years.

BackgroundYoung women in conflict-affected regions are at risk of a number of adverse outcomes as a result of violence, economic deterioration and the breakdown of community structures and services. This paper presents the findings of a systematic review of quantitative literature reporting how key sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes among young women under the age of 20 years are affected by exposure to armed conflict; namely, sexual debut, first marriage and first birth. Increases in these outcomes among young women are all associated with potential negative public health consequences. It also examines and documents possible causal pathways for any changes seen.MethodsTo fit with our inclusion criteria, all reviewed studies included outcomes for comparable populations not exposed to conflict either temporally or spatially. A total of 19 studies with results from 21 countries or territories met our inclusion criteria; seven presented findings on marriage, four on fertility and eight on both of these outcomes. Only one study reporting on sexual debut met our criteria.ResultsFindings show clear evidence of both declines and increases in marriage and childbirth among young women in a range of conflict-affected settings. Several studies that showed increases in marriage below the age of 20 years reported that such increases were concentrated in the younger teenagers. Trends in fertility were predominantly driven by marriage patterns. Suggested causal pathways for the changes observed could be grouped into three categories: involuntary, gender and psycho-social and economic and material factors.ConclusionThe review reveals a paucity of literature on the impact of conflict on SRH outcomes of young women. Further quantitative and qualitative studies are needed to explore how conflict influences SRH events in young women over both the short- and longer-term.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-2868-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Migration and Gender Politics in Southeast Asia

As a region that has experienced major socio-political and economic transitions in recent decades, Southeast Asia provides a rich and variegated terrain to explore the gendered lives and experiences of men and women in a globalizing world of increased migrations and mobilities. Relations of equality and complementarity between Southeast Asian men and women have long been thought to be a regional characteristic (Andaya 2007) but much has changed in recent times. Deeper incorporation of the region into the global world order provides a mobile context shaping the gendered experiences and micropolitics that men and women sustain in reproducing and resisting socio-cultural change and economic development. By the closing decades of the twentieth century, Southeast Asian women, in particular, have seen their lives transformed by rapid but uneven economic growth and development, the penetrating reach of global capital and international business, the strengthening of economic-cum-cultural nationalisms, the accelerated pace of urbanization, downward trends in fertility, and the increasing feminization of labor migration in the region (Yeoh, Teo and Huang 2002). At the same time, Southeast Asian men are also experiencing pressures to perform masculine subjectivities differently or more flexibly, even if deep-seated transformations in gender ideologies or scripts are more resistant to change (Hoang and Yeoh 2011; Ford and Lyons 2012).

Why has wage inequality evolved so differently between Japan and the US? The role of the supply of college-educated workers

Why has wage inequality not changed in Japan while it has secularly increased in the US over the last few decades? Pointing to the difference in the trends of the college wage premium in the two countries as a proximate cause, this study assesses the importance of the supply factor as a determinant of the college wage premium. The wage differential between college and high-school graduates decreased slightly from 0.35 to 0.34 log point in Japan, while it increased from 0.43 to 0.65 log point in the US between 1986 and 2008. During this period, the number of college graduates grew twice as fast in Japan as in the US. Estimations of labor demands for different educational backgrounds and simulations based on counterfactual supply trends reveal that the more rapid increase of college graduates in Japan than in the US explains about 60% of these contrasting trends. The difference in post-war fertility trends largely explains the difference in the supply increase of college graduates between the two countries.

The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. PremiseDuring the last four decades of the 20th century, the average total fertility rate (TFR) has continuously dropped in Europe, as it generally has in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The aggregate trend covers considerable differences across Europe, with the main differences appearing between northern and southern European countries (Eurostat 2012).During the same period, important changes have also occurred in the labour market arrangements of both men and women, with changes in individuals' and couples' economic conditions. Whereas by the 1980s the fall in fertility was coupled with a rise in female employment, since the late 1980s the fall has been accompanied by a rise in unemployment, particularly among women.Explaining the determinants of such a fall in fertility and the links with changes in the labour market statuses of both men and women has become a major topic over the last years (D'Addio and Mira d'Ercole 2005; Kreyenfeld 2010).The rise in unemployment for women and men in southern and central European countries that occurred during the 1990s has been proposed as an explanation for the more pronounced decrease in the TFR in these countries, as in other countries with low female labour force participation rates (Ahn and Mira 2002; Adsera 2005; Engelhardt and Prskawetz 2004). This evidence highlights the need to further examine the role of unemployment in fertility behaviour.This paper seeks to describe the connections between fertility and unemployment in Italy from a gender-based and geographic perspective. Italian workers have experienced a rising trend of unemployment - with gender and regional differences - since the mid-nineties, resulting in a feeling of uncertainty about the future. We are in agreement with the hypothesis that macro-level economic conditions are likely to be related to fertility (Brewster and Rindfuss 2000): in particular, economic uncertainty can induce a short-term reduction in fertility that is presumably due to the postponement of decisions to have an (additional) child until the economy recovers.We utilised time series of aggregate data on fertility and unemployment during the interval 1995-2012, which includes the period of economic downturn that began at the end of 2007.We began from the hypothesis that the connection between unemployment and fertility differs among the various Italian regions, and we used a regression dynamic model to evaluate whether changes in fertility in different Italian geographic areas are more related to changes in male or female unemployment, as well as the strength of the link. Moreover, we paid particular attention to specific temporal links between the two series in different geographical areas.The structure of the paper is as follows:- Discussion of the literature and previous research on the relationship between fertility and unemployment of both men and women. We utilised aggregate data, but we also referred to studies of individual-level data to understand how the issue has been addressed by different approaches;- Discussion of these relationships in Italy within the European context;- Methodological approach and analysis of aggregate trends of fertility and unemployment in Italy by gender and geographic area; and- Discussion of the results.2. Unemployment and fertility: A complex relationshipA modern discussion on fertility in developed countries began in the 1960s and focused on the importance of socio-economic factors at the community or country level, 4 the incompatibility between work and family, increasing female education, and the roles of women in different contexts related to specific welfare policies (Oppenheimer 1988; McDonald 2006; Pison 2009).The decrease in fertility rates in the 1960s and 1970s in most industrialised economies was correlated with an increase in female employment (Adsera 2004). …

Fertility trends in Indian IT sector: A web chat based cross-sectional study

Introduction: The Indian information technology (IT) industries have continued to be the largest private sector employer till today. The enrolment of women in higher education is about 40%, which signifies that more women are ready to pursue higher education. The job involves good pay packages, pick drops, incentives, personnel management appraisals, and better exposure but at the same time requires constant psychological balance and mental exercises. Thus, keeping these facts in mind, the present study intends to explore the nature of occupational impact on women’s health and to analyze the prevalence of infertility in Indian women working in IT sector. Materials and Methods: This is an observational study, based on a web consultation conducted in June 2016 with the women working in Infosys Ltd; 970 women took part in the chat, and questions were asked regarding the health problems faced by them. On the basis of these questions, an analysis was conducted to explore the health problems in women working in IT sector and prevalence of infertility among them. Results: Out of 970 women, 311 (32%) women were suffering from infertility, and majority (62%) of them were above the age of 30 years. Gynecological problems were also common in these women (28%); amid there, menstrual irregularity was being the most common one (82%). Besides this, polycystic ovarian syndrome was also found in 10% of the participants. Conclusion: It can be concluded that due to multiple factors, the infertility rates are high in women working in IT sector, and an attempt has to be made by timely counseling, avoiding drugs and alcohol abuse to minimize reproductive issues.

石羊河下游退耕地土壤微生物变化及土壤酶活性

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 石羊河下游退耕地土壤微生物变化及土壤酶活性 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201412282593 作者: 作者单位: 甘肃农业大学 草业学院,甘肃农业大学 草业学院,甘肃省荒漠化与风沙灾害防治国家重点实验室培育基地,甘肃省荒漠化与风沙灾害防治国家重点实验室培育基地,甘肃省荒漠化与风沙灾害防治国家重点实验室培育基地,甘肃省荒漠化与风沙灾害防治国家重点实验室培育基地,甘肃省荒漠化与风沙灾害防治国家重点实验室培育基地 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（41161049，31360584，31160264） Soil microbial and soil enzyme activity in a discontinued farmland by the Lower Shiyang River Author: Affiliation: Gansu Desert Control Research Institute,Pratacultural College of Gansu Agricultural University,,,,, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:采用时空替代法，对石羊河下游不同年限（1，2，3，4，5，8，15，24、31 a）退耕地土壤微生物（细菌、真菌和放线菌）数量、生物量（碳、氮和磷）及土壤酶（过氧化氢酶、蔗糖酶、脲酶和磷酸酶）活性变化及三者的相关性进行了测定和分析。结果表明，在退耕1-31 a的9个样地样方中土壤三大类微生物数量以细菌最高，放线菌次之，真菌最低。总体来看，三大土壤微生物数量的加权平均值最大值均在退耕后的前8 a。土壤微生物生物量碳在退耕初期随着退耕年限的增加而减小，退耕4 a后逐渐增大，退耕24 a期间达到了加权平均值的最大，最后趋于稳定；土壤微生物生物量氮在退耕初期随着退耕年限的增加而增加，退耕4 a加权平均值的最大值出现，随后逐渐减小的趋势，并且不同退耕年限土壤微生物生物量氮差异显著；土壤微生物生物量磷在退耕初期随着退耕年限的增加而增加，退耕8 a前后加权平均值达到最大值，随后逐渐减小，最终趋于稳定。土壤酶活性总趋势随着退耕地自然演替时间的增加呈波动式下降。不同土壤层次（0-10 cm，10-20 cm，20-30 cm及30-40 cm），土壤微生物数量、生物量及土壤酶活性随土层深度显著降低，并且表层土壤微生物生物量及土壤酶活性占有较大比例。土壤微生物及土壤酶活性的变化是一个极其缓慢的互动过程，存在着互相回馈的响应，特别是真菌与放线菌、微生物量氮及蔗糖酶，放线菌与过氧化氢酶、蔗糖酶，微生物量碳与磷酸酶，微生物量氮与脲酶，微生物量磷与蔗糖酶均存在极显著的相关性。总体来看在退耕年限4-5 a前，有利于土壤发育，退耕后期土壤肥力呈下降的趋势。 Abstract:To better understand the changes in soil conditions after agriculture use ceases, we measured and analyzed the changes in three components-soil microbial quantity, soil microbial biomass, and soil enzyme activity-in sample sites where farming had been discontinued for different periods (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 15, 24 and 31 years), in the lower Shiyang River area. By using the data, the correlations between the three components were also studied in 2012. The three components, respectively, contained 1) bacteria, fungi, and actinomycetes; 2) microbial biomass carbon, microbial biomass nitrogen, and microbial biomass phosphorus; and 3) catalase, sucrase, urease, and phosphatase. Synchronic space investigation was adopted instead of diachronic temporal investigation. Results showed that bacteria were the most abundant of the three soil microorganisms in the nine soil samples taken 31 years after farming ceased, followed by actinomycetes and fungi. Overall, the maximum weighted average of the three soil microbial quantities all occurred in the first 8 years after farming ceased. The quantity of soil microbial biomass carbon initially decreased with increasing time since farming ceased. It gradually increased starting in the 4th year and reached the peak in the 24th year, after which it became stable. The soil microbial biomass nitrogen appeared to increase with time. After the maximum weighted average in the 4th year, there was a steady reduction with large significant differences in soil microbial biomass nitrogen among soil sites of various ages. The weighted average soil microbial biomass phosphorus increased at the same pace as nitrogen at the beginning of the soil restoration period. The biomass phosphorus level climaxed at the 8th year, after which it tended to decline gradually before finally stabilizing. The general trend of soil enzyme activity decreased, but with fluctuations, with increasing soil succession age. Moreover, soil microbial quantity, soil microbial biomass, and soil enzyme activity declined dramatically in all restoration ages with soil depth from 0 to 10 cm, 10 to 20 cm, and 20-30 to 30-40 cm. In addition, the surface soil microbial biomass and soil enzyme activity were the largest among the four soil levels. The changes in soil microbial quantity, soil microbial biomass, and soil enzyme activity were extremely slow. In addition, an interactive process and a feedback response between the three components was observed. Highly significant correlations were found, especially between fungi and actinomycetes, microbial biomass nitrogen and sucrase, actinomycetes and catalase and sucrase, microbial biomass carbon and phosphatase, microbial biomass nitrogen and urease, and microbial biomass phosphorus and sucrose. To summarize, we noted an improvement in the soil conditions in the initial 4-5 years after ceasing agricultural practice, followed by a declining trend in soil fertility. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Long Term Effect of Integrated Nutrient Management on Soil Properties and Productivity of Toria (Brassica campestris) in an Inceptisol under Rainfed Upland Condition of North Bank Plains Zone of Assam

A field experiment was conducted to study the effect of integrated nutrient management on soil properties and productivity of toria at Biswanath College of Agriculture, Biswanath Chariali, Assam. The experiment was carried out during 201011 to 2014–15 in Randomised Block Design with eleven treatment combinations and three replications consisting of organic and inorganic inputs. The soil of the experimental site was sandy loam in texture with acidic in reaction (pH 5.05). The initial fertility status of soil was medium in available N (385.73 kg/ha), medium in available P (12.33 kg/ha) and medium in available K (148.08 kg/ha). After five years of experimentation increasing fertility trend was observed under T4 (75% RDF + 5 t/ha vermicompost) treatment. The application of 75% RDF + 5 t/ha vermicompost (T4) recorded significantly higher yield, benefit cost ratio, Rain Water Use Efficiency (RWUE) along with significant improvements in soil physical and chemical properties. However, application of vermicompost @ 3 t/ha along with 75% RDF also sustained the toria productivity and was at par with application of 75% RDF + vermicompost @ 5 t/ha in respect of toria productivity and soil properties.

THE ROLE OF ATTITUDES TOWARDS MATERNAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN JOB QUALITY AND FERTILITY INTENTIONS

1. IntroductionIn contrast to the Unit ed States, in some European countries, fertility has fallen below 1.5 births per woman. Family formation has been postponed to later ages, and childlessness rates have incr eased substantially (JohnsonHanks et al., 2012). Among demographers there is a consensus that low fertility has emerged dir ectly from fertility postponement and is mainly a consequence of changes in fertility timing (Kohler, Billari, & Ortega, 2002; Lutz, O'Neill, & Scherbov, 2004; Sobotka, 2004). Were postponement the only cause of fertility decline, such a decline would not persist, and a trend reversal would be expected. Indeed, most low-fertility European countries have recently experienced a reversal of fertility decline. Yet in all three German-speaking countries (Austria, Germany, and Switzerland), fertility has remained unchanged (Goldstein, Sobotka, & Jasilioniene, 2009; Sobotka & Zeman, 2011). Freijka & Sardon (2004, p. 376) estimated that women born in 1975 might reach completed fertility rates of 1.2-1.3 births by the end of their childbearing years in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. Ther efor e, German-speaking countries are the only exception to the current reversal of fertility trends in Europe.These developments make it crucial to understand intervening mechanisms other than demographic ones that can sustain such low total fertility rates. An emerging area of research focuses on the impact of housing conditions as mec ha nis ms for det er mining f er tility i nt ent ions. For example, Vignoli, Rinesi, & Mussino (2012) showed in a study using the Italian variant of the Gener a tions a nd G ender Survey, a clea r gra dient between t he fertility intentions of couples and the degree to which they feel secure about their housing situation. Home ownership represents one of the main sources of investment for family savings; it provides an indirect source of income (i.e. the imputed rent), it enables future and sustainable consumption (Dewilde & Raeymaeckers, 2008), and protects against risks of eviction (Mulder & Hooimeijer, 1999), thereby promoting the formation of childbearing intentions. Another important factor in the literature on fertility intentions are social network mechanisms. Social influence can help explain representations of parenthood and ideal family size (Bernardi, 2003), social learning mechanisms have been considered crucial to distinguish who forms childbearing intentions a nd puts t hem int o practice, while finally social interaction is important to fertility because relationships and informal support networks can complement the institutional provision of childcare (Bernardi & Rossier, 2009; Bernardi & Klarner, 2014). Researchers also derive fertilit y differentials from the design of family and employment policies to facilitate the reconciliation of work and family (Hoem, 2005; Kaufman & Bernhardt; Olah & Bernhardt, 2008; Billingsley & Ferrarini, 2014).Other scholars have emphasized the role of employment conditions on fertility (Blossfeld & Hofmeister, 2007; Blossfeld, Klijzing, Mills, & Kurz, 2005; Kreyenfeld, Andersson, & Pailhe, 2012; Sobotka, Skirbekk, & Philipov, 2011). Unemployment has been repeatedly related to low fertility, especially a mong men (Adser a, 2005; Pailhe & Solaz, 2012; Schmitt, 2012), a nd precarious work has been claimed to contribute to fertility postponement (Bernardi, Klaerner, & von der Lippe, 2008; Hanappi, Ryser, Bernardi, & Le Goff, 2012; Scherer, 2009; Steiber & Haas, 2009). Overall, findings suggest that the qua lity of a job matt ers in det ermining how easily par ents can sustain the financial burden of a child and combine work and family, and therefore contributes to explaining childbearing intentions (Begall & Mills, 2011; Del Bono et al., 2014; Cazzola et al. 2016).Far less is known about the effects of gender attitudes. Gender attitudes ha ve been shown t o influ ence work and car e choic es, a s well a s fa mily planning (Rindfuss & Brewester, 1996; McQuillan et al. …

Male Reproductive Disorders and Fertility Trends: Influences of Environment and Genetic Susceptibility

It is predicted that Japan and European Union will soon experience appreciable decreases in their populations due to persistently low total fertility rates (TFR) below replacement level (2.1 child per woman). In the United States, where TFR has also declined, there are ethnic differences. Caucasians have rates below replacement, while TFRs among African-Americans and Hispanics are higher. We review possible links between TFR and trends in a range of male reproductive problems, including testicular cancer, disorders of sex development, cryptorchidism, hypospadias, low testosterone levels, poor semen quality, childlessness, changed sex ratio, and increasing demand for assisted reproductive techniques. We present evidence that several adult male reproductive problems arise in utero and are signs of testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS). Although TDS might result from genetic mutations, recent evidence suggests that it most often is related to environmental exposures of the fetal testis. However, environmental factors can also affect the adult endocrine system. Based on our review of genetic and environmental factors, we conclude that environmental exposures arising from modern lifestyle, rather than genetics, are the most important factors in the observed trends. These environmental factors might act either directly or via epigenetic mechanisms. In the latter case, the effects of exposures might have an impact for several generations post-exposure. In conclusion, there is an urgent need to prioritize research in reproductive physiology and pathophysiology, particularly in highly industrialized countries facing decreasing populations. We highlight a number of topics that need attention by researchers in human physiology, pathophysiology, environmental health sciences, and demography.

Unintended pregnancy risk and contraceptive use among women 45-50 years old: Massachusetts, 2006, 2008, and 2010

Little is known about unintended pregnancy risk and current contraceptive use among women ≥45 years old in the United States. The purpose of this study was to describe the prevalence of women ages 45-50 years old at risk for unintended pregnancy and their current contraceptive use, and to compare these findings to those of women in younger age groups. We analyzed 2006, 2008, and 2010 Massachusetts Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, the only state in the United States to collect contraceptive data routinely from women >44 years old. Women 18-50 years old (n= 4930) were considered to be at risk for unintended pregnancy unless they reported current pregnancy, hysterectomy, not being sexually active in the past year, having a same-sex partner, or wanting to become pregnant. Among women who were considered to be at risk (n= 3605), we estimated the prevalence of current contraceptive use by age group. Among women who were considered to be at risk and who were 45-50 years old (n= 940), we examined characteristics that were associated with current method use. Analyses were conducted on weighted data using SAS-callable SUDAAN (RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC). Among women who were 45-50 years old, 77.6% were at risk for unintended pregnancy, which was similar to other age groups. As age increased, hormonal contraceptive use (shots, pills, patch, or ring) decreased, and permanent contraception (tubal ligation or vasectomy) increased as did non-use of contraception. Of women who were 45-50 years old and at risk for unintended pregnancy, 66.9% reported using some contraceptive method; permanent contraception was the leading method reported by 44.0% and contraceptive non-use was reported by 16.8%. A substantial proportion of women who were 45-50 years old were considered to be at risk for unintended pregnancy. Permanent contraception was most commonly used by women in this age group. Compared with other age groups, more women who were 45-50 years old were not using any contraception. Population-based surveillance efforts are needed to follow trends among this age group and better meet their family planning needs. Although expanding surveillance systems to include women through 50 years old requires additional resources, fertility trends that show increasingly delayed childbearing, uncertain end of fecundity, and potential adverse consequences of unplanned pregnancy in older age may justify these expenditures.

Closing a Sociodemographic Chapter of Chinese History

At its recent Fifth Plenary Session held in Beijing, the Eighteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to abolish the one‐child policy and allow all couples to have two children, thus closing an important chapter of China's social and demographic history. Recent fertility trends make it clear why it is urgent to abandon this policy. Census and survey data show that China's TFR had already fallen below replacement in 1991. Since the mid‐1990s, TFRs in most years have been lower than 1.5 children per woman. Since 2010, even lower fertility rates have been recorded by the annual population change surveys. Since the mid‐1990s, fertility decline has been increasingly driven by generalized ideational changes resulting from the social, economic, and cultural transformation of recent decades. In recent years many couples who were entitled to have a second child have chosen not to do so. For this reason, the termination of the one‐child policy is unlikely to lead to a major upturn in fertility, but rather to the continuation of a low‐fertility regime with more diverse fertility patterns across different sub‐populations, a pattern that has been observed in many countries.

The level and patterns of fertility among women in Kersa Demographic Surveillance and Health Research Center (KDS-HRC) Field site, Kersa District, East Ethiopia.

BackgroundFertility is one of the three principal components of population dynamics. High fertility and rapid population growth exert negative influences on economic and social development. This study was aimed to estimate the level and trends of fertility among (15–49 years) old women in kersa demographic surveillance and health research center, kersa district Eastern Ethiopia.MethodsThe study was conducted at kersa demographic surveillance and health research center in kersa district, Eastern Ethiopia. The study utilized five years follow up data (2008–2012). All women (15 to 49 years old) who have been living at kersa demographic surveillance and health research center in kersa district from 2008 to 2012 were included in the analysis to estimate the level and pattern of fertility. Descriptive statistics was computed to determine level and pattern of fertility.ResultsAge specific fertility rate was highest in women of the age group 25–29 years old (233.2 per 1000 women in 2008; 205.8 per 1000 women in 2009; 279.0 per 1000 women in 2010; 186.6 per 1000 women in 2011 and 198.5 per 1000 women in 2012) in five consecutive years from 2008 to 2012. Total fertility rate didn't show any significant decline during the study period, i.e., 4.3, 4.5, 4.9, 3.5, 4.0 live births per woman throughout her reproductive period (15–49) years old in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. On the other hand, general fertility rate declined from 110.3 births per 1000 women in 2008 to 95.9 per 1000 women in the reproductive age in 2012.ConclusionThe total fertility rate was found to be relatively high. Fertility rate is higher in rural residents and illiterate women than in urban residents and literate women. Strong information, education, communication and behavior change communication on family planning should be designed and implemented to prevent unwanted fertility.

Coverage of infertility treatment and fertility outcomes

Policy interventions that increase insurance coverage for infertility treatments may affect fertility trends, and ultimately, population age structures. However, such policies have ignored the overall impact of coverage on fertility. We examine short-term and long-term effects of increased insurance coverage for infertility on the timing of first births and on women’s total fertility rates. Our main contribution is to show that infertility mandates enacted in the United States during the 80s and 90s did not increase the total fertility rates of women by the end of their reproductive lives. We also show evidence that these mandates induced women to put off motherhood.

Reconstructing historical fertility change in Mongolia

1. IntroductionThe increasing number of population censuses and sample surveys significantly improve our knowledge of recent demographic changes in statistically less-developed countries. The availability of large survey programs and the recommended inclusion of specific questions in census questionnaires have improved the estimation of child mortality and fertility levels and trends. In the statistically less-developed countries, demographic changes since the 1980s are now somewhat better documented, but deriving demographic estimates for earlier periods still remains a challenging task. The limited number of available demographic data sources constitutes one of the main difficulties facing demographers. In addition, this early fragmentary demographic evidence often has important data quality limitations. Yet the increasing number of population data sources also allows for a renewed comparison and cross-validation of demographic estimates, and a better understanding of past population processes.Thanks to consistent population statistics, the demographic development of Mongolia is well documented from the 1970s to the present (Gereltuya 2008; Neupert 1992, 1996; Mungunsarnai and Spoorenberg 2012; Spoorenberg 2009, 2014a). However, much less is known about the earlier decades of the 20th century. Thus most of the studies of fertility change in Mongolia have focused on the fertility decline that started in the country in the mid-1970s (Gereltuya 2008; Neupert 1992, 1994; Spoorenberg 2009). So far the political factor has received most consideration when explaining fertility change in the country (Gereltuya 2008). The very high fertility levels of the 1960s until the mid-1970s are understood as the result of the pro-natalist policies adopted by the socialist government, consisting in generous benefits to families having children. Therefore the onset of the fertility decline in the mid-1970s is explained by the changes made in these pro-natalist policies. While the policy factor certainly contributes to explaining the fertility levels and trends in Mongolia, giving primacy to this factor in the explanation of the fertility change in Mongolia is short-sighted.2The objective of this paper is to reconstruct fertility levels and trends in Mongolia before 1960 in order to offer an alternative view of historical fertility change in the country. The paper opens with an overview of the development of Mongolia's population during the 20th century. It shows that population growth was very low until the late 1940s as a result of a combination of high mortality levels and fertility levels that were well below the historical peak of the 1960s and 1970s. The data used and the methods applied to reconstruct fertility change in the country are then introduced. Mobilizing a large set of data from different sources and applying diverse estimation techniques, a consistent reconstruction of nearly a century of fertility change in Mongolia is conducted. The third section presents the fertility estimates. Their quality is assessed through 1) cross-comparison, and 2) prospective reconstruction of Mongolia's population between the 1918 and 1956 censuses, using three fertility variants. The comparison of different fertility estimates returns a very consistent picture of historical fertility change in Mongolia, indicating that total fertility stagnated until the late 1940s before embarking on an impressive increase of around 2.5 children per woman within 15 years, followed by a plateau until the mid-1970s, and thereafter a rapid decline. The prospective population reconstruction shows that the population enumerated in the 1956 census can be consistently reproduced assuming almost constant fertility levels and trends between 1918 and 1956, thus validating the quality of the new fertility estimates introduced in this analysis. The factors behind the pre-decline fertility rise in the country are then discussed. It is shown that the impressive pre-decline fertility rise is primarily the result of improvements in health and living standards leading to a reduction in infertility. …