Trends In Energy Supply Research Articles

Building Performance and Post Occupancy Evaluation for an off-grid low carbon and solar PV plus-energy powered building. A case from the Western Desert in Egypt

Current trends in energy supply and use within the building sector in Egypt are patently unsustainable and uneconomical; they are not environmentally and sometimes not even socially viable. Renewable energy has recently started to attract considerable attention as a future energy source. After major problems with electricity blackouts the photovoltaic (PV) market, in particular, has been growing significantly in Egypt over the last 5 years. This study was conducted to develop an evaluation method to assess the potential of applying passive design and low carbon and construction strategies together with PV systems for electricity power supply. A one year Building Performance and Post Occupancy Evaluation was carried out for a selected case study in Baharia, Egypt using records of energy use, demand profiles, and monitored thermal behaviour in indoor environments, together with a review of occupants’ satisfaction. The outcome of this study offers an applicable methodology for assessing the performance of mixed use off-grid low carbon and PV plus-energy buildings. The results aim to serve as a base for future national legal requirements for a zero carbon and PV plus-energy solar building practice especially in off-grid desert settlements in Egypt.

Thermodynamic Evaluation of a hybrid solar concentrating photovoltaic/Kalina cycle for full spectrum utilization

Current trends in energy supply and use are unsustainable, concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) would realize the cost-competent photovoltaic application in future, however, its low-temperature waste heat is commonly to heat or refrigerate. From the view of reducing the condensation pressure of Kalina cycle, a hybrid solar concentrating photovoltaic/concentrating solar power (CPV/CSP) system is proposed in this paper and has been capable of converting low-temperature waste heat (65℃) from solar cells into electricity with the exergy efficiency of 26.5%. Meanwhile, the simulation results point out that hybrid system can raise the solar-to-electricity efficiency of solar cells by approximate 2.4 percent points by heat recovery, leading to a feasible strategy for the decrease in costs of solar energy utilization.

Energy Consumption in Rural China: Analysis of Rural Living Energy in Beijing

Under the pressure of climate change and international carbon reduction targets, long-neglected rural energy consumption needs to be given high priority. China’s rural energy consumption structure is in the transition from non-commercial to commercial sources, and rural energy has become a key determinant to slow down the carbon emission growth. This paper systematically calibrates the current situation of rural energy consumption in Beijing by using the survey data of 1866 households in 13 districts and counties in Beijing based on the trend of energy supply and demand change in China. To this end, the paper combines rural policy measures to assess the pressure on coal-burning and clean energy supply trends, puts forward the rural energy structure adjustment path, with a view to promoting the use of clean energy in rural areas and reduce the environmental consequences of coal-burning.

Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique

Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model, which we name MOZLEAP, is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure, vehicle ownership and energy intensity. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. We discuss the opportunities and challenges that this resource wealth poses for the country.

Introducing MOZLEAP: An Integrated Long-Run Scenario Model of the Emerging Energy Sector of Mozambique

Recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present in this paper the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model makes use of the LEAP framework and is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets. Therefore, a major challenge for energy policy in Mozambique is to strike a balance in meeting domestic and international demand for energy, such that energy production benefits the entire Mozambican population.

The 2050 Roadmap for Nuclear: Making a Global Difference

Current trends in energy supply and use are patently unsustainable – economically, environmentally and socially. Without decisive action, energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will more than double by 2050 and increased oil demand will heighten concerns over the security of supplies. To change our current path will take an energy revolution and low-carbon energy technologies will have a crucial role to play. Nuclear power among other technologies needs to be widely deployed if we are to reach our greenhouse gas emission goals. Every major country and sector of the economy must be involved. But what level should we aim for, what are the roadblocks to be overcome and what are the milestones that we must achieve? This paper will discuss the nuclear roadmap to 2050, produced jointly by the IEA and NEA.

Overview of the Northeast Asia energy situation

Rapid economic growth in Northeast Asia has vastly increased regional needs for energy services. In several countries of the region, this ongoing growth has been accompanied by significant environmental problems. The countries of the region already constitute the largest import market for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The region has accounted for a progressively larger share of world primary energy use; its share has risen from under 19% in 1999 to over 25% in 2007. Though the region as a whole possesses resources that could contribute substantially toward its future energy needs, many major energy resources are far from population centers. As such, major infrastructure investments will be required to bring these resources to market. This article provides a description of the current situation of energy demand and supply in Northeast Asia, summarizes recent trends in energy supply and demand, and of the “drivers” that underlie energy use, in the region. Also presented are projections of energy use and of key impacts of energy use, such as greenhouse gas emissions, in the region. Other impacts of continued growth in energy supply and demand in Northeast Asia are reviewed qualitatively.

Looking ahead: energy, climate change and pro‐poor responses

PurposeIn the absence of new policies, global trends in energy supply and consumption are unsustainable all around. Today, roughly 2.6 billion people use fuelwood, charcoal, agricultural waste and animal dung to meet most of their daily energy needs for cooking and heating. There are 1.6 billion people in the world without electricity, equal to over a quarter of the world population. The purpose of this paper is to present pro‐poor solutions for addressing the crippling impacts of current global energy use on the world's poorest people.Design/methodology/approachThe paper lays out scenarios for global energy demand and greenhouse‐gas emissions and highlights the impact of these trends on developing countries. Based largely on publications and research from the International Energy Agency, it shows that better targeted subsidies, capacity building, integrated policy approaches and improvements in data collection can help to alleviate the impacts of current energy use on health and the environment.FindingsDecisive action is needed to expand energy access and to arrest the potential impacts of climate change in poor countries. It is demonstrated here that investments in programs that are tailored to promoting development and addressing climate change simultaneously can be successfully deployed.Originality/valueThere is an urgent need for policymakers in rich and poor countries to join together and tackle the global energy and climate challenges, and, as this paper shows, pro‐poor foresight is needed to ensure that these challenges are met in an equitable and sustainable way.

A model approach for analysing trends in energy supply and demand at country level: Case study of industrial development in China

Ideally, national energy supply and demand choices would be based on comprehensive models and predictions of the energy sources, energy transformations, energy carriers and energy end-uses expected to play major roles into the foreseeable future (20–40 years). However, in many cases, the necessary detailed, high quality, consistent and timely data is not available for such comprehensive models to be constructed, in particular in large and complex developing economies expected to be major energy users in the near future. In the developing countries that are the focus of UNIDO's work, attention has been concentrated on making progress simultaneously on two fronts: (a) a dramatic decrease in energy intensity, particularly in activities linked to industrial production and (b) a major increase in the contribution of local renewable energy to limit growth in fossil fuel use. National policies need to be oriented towards a strict and strategic monitoring of the respective energy matrices with a simultaneous focus on both fronts. Robust assessments of industrial development trends throughout the whole 20–40 year transition phase are needed to achieve both objectives. Until more comprehensive energy-related models can be built up, to overcome the limited availability of data at country level it is proposed that a simple energy supply and demand model analysis consisting of three phases be used for identifying the consistency of future scenarios and corresponding policy requirements. This model analysis, which is a dynamic exercise, consists, first, of an analysis at aggregate level of the current and future national energy matrices; secondly, an analysis of perspectives for decreasing the energy intensity of the most inefficient systems or industrial sectors; and thirdly, an analysis of perspectives for increasing the supply and cost-effectiveness of sustainable energy sources. As an illustration of this model approach, the case of China is analysed with emphasis on the industrial sector, followed by a discussion of some of the structural change policies indicated for China to reach its planned energy supply and demand objectives for 2020.

Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options

Recent rapid growth of energy use in China now exerts great pressure on energy supply and the environment. This study provides scenarios of future energy development and resulting pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, taking into account the most up-to-date data and recent policy discussions that will affect future economic, industrial, and energy supply trends. To address uncertainties, especially those surrounding the level of energy-intensive production in the next several decades, three scenarios were defined, which reasonably represent the range of plausible futures for energy development. The results from quantitative analysis show that energy demand in China could be as high as 2.9 billion toe (tons oil equivalent) in 2030, which could exceed the available energy supply. When compared with previous energy scenario studies, this result is much higher. By using various policy options discussed in the article, however, there is potential to reduce this high demand to 2.4 billion toe in 2030.

Trends in obesity and energy supply in the WHO MONICA Project.

To examine the relationship between secular trends in energy supply and body mass index (BMI) among several countries. Aggregate level analyses of annually reported country food data against anthropometric data collected in independent cross-sectional samples from 34 populations in 21 countries from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. Population randomly selected participants aged 35-64 y. BMI data were obtained from the WHO MONICA Project. Food energy supply data were derived from the Food Balance Sheet of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Mean BMI as well as the prevalence of overweight (BMI > or =25 kg/m2) increased in virtually all Western European countries, Australia, the USA, and China. Decreasing trends in BMI were seen in Central and Eastern European countries. Increasing trends in total energy supply per capita were found in most high-income countries and China while decreasing trends existed in Eastern European countries. Between country differences in temporal trends of total energy supply per capita explained 41% of the variation of trends in mean BMI; the effect was similar upon the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Trends in percent of energy supply from total fat per capita had a slight effect on the trends in mean BMI (+7% increment in R2) when the total energy supply per capita was adjusted for, while energy supply from total sweeteners per capita had no additional effect. Increasing energy supply is closely associated with the increase of overweight and obesity in western countries. This emphasizes the importance of dietary issues when coping with the obesity epidemic.

Among the Energy Tribes: A cultural framework for the analysis and design of energy policy

My four years at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) have provided the opportunity for some participant observation among the Energy Tribes. The uncertainties that envelop trends in energy supply and demand are so wide that the exploratory mode (asking “What would you like the facts to be?”) turns out to be more rewarding than the adversary mode (asking “What are the facts?”). The three Energy Tribes are distinguished by their three contradictory scenarios: “Business as Usual,” “Middle of the Road” and “Radical Change Now.” Each scenario sets very different bounds on what is credible and incredible, possible and impossible, sensible and foolish, rational and irrational.