Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique

Abstract

Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model, which we name MOZLEAP, is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure, vehicle ownership and energy intensity. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. We discuss the opportunities and challenges that this resource wealth poses for the country.