Age-standardized Incidence Trends Research Articles

Tuberculosis in South Asia: A regional analysis of burden, progress, and future projections using the global burden of disease (1990–2021)

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a major public health issue in South Asia and accounts for a large share of the global TB burden. Despite global efforts to curb TB incidence and mortality, progress in South Asia has been uneven, necessitating focused regional analysis to guide effective interventions. This study aims to analyse the trends in the TB burden in South Asia from 1990 to 2021 and project future TB incidence rates up to 2031. MethodsThis study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 results to analyse trends in age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) associated with TB in South Asia from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify significant trends, whereas ARIMA models were used to project future TB incidence rates up to 2031. ResultsThis study revealed significant declines in the ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, and ASMR related to TB in South Asia over the past three decades. Prominent reductions were found in Bangladesh and Bhutan, whereas India, Pakistan, and Nepal continue to bear the highest TB burdens. The ARIMA model projections indicate a continued decline in TB incidence across the region, although the extent of the decline varies by country, with less favourable trends observed in Nepal and Pakistan. The analysis also highlights tobacco use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index as significant risk factors contributing to the TB burden. ConclusionsSubstantial progress has been made in reducing the TB burden in South Asia; however, sustained and intensified efforts are needed, particularly in countries with inconsistent progress. These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions to meet the WHO End TB Strategy (WETS) targets by 2035. Continuous monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and accelerating progress toward TB elimination in South Asia.

Global burden and trends in pre- and post-menopausal gynecological cancer from 1990 to 2019, with Projections to 2040: a cross-sectional study.

The global burden and trends in gynecological cancer (GC) by menopausal status worldwide remain unclear. Data on the number of incident cases and deaths, as well as age-standardized rates (ASR) and risk factors for GC in pre- and post-menopausal women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The estimated annual percent change was calculated to quantify the temporal trend of GC burden by menopausal status between 1990 and 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for pre- and post-menopausal GC during 2020-2040. In 2019, an estimated 400,146 premenopausal and 879,476 postmenopausal GC cases were newly diagnosed worldwide, with approximately 111,420 and 442,821 GC-related deaths occurring in each menopausal group, respectively. The majority of both pre- and post-menopausal GC cases in low- to middle-SDI regions was due to cervical cancer. In high- and high-middle-SDI regions, premenopausal GC was primarily attributed to cervical cancer, while postmenopausal GC was mainly attributed to uterine cancer. Additionally, the contribution of uterine cancer to GC was higher among postmenopausal women than premenopausal women, across all SDI levels and geographical regions. ASIRs either remained stable or increased from 1990 to 2019 worldwide for both pre- and post-menopausal GC (an average change of 0.03% [95% CI -0.02 to 0.08] and 0.09% [0.05 to 0.13] per year, respectively). However, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) declined by an annual average of 0.86% (95% CI -0.92 to -0.8) and 0.63% (95% CI -0.66 to -0.6) globally during the same period. The risk-attributable proportion of postmenopausal GC deaths was higher than that of premenopausal GC and increased with increasing SDI. The projections indicate an increasing trend in the burden of premenopausal GC from 2020 to 2040, while the burden of postmenopausal GC is expected to decline. GC continues to be a significant public health concern worldwide, with notable regional and demographic disparities in the burden based on menopausal status. Policymakers and health-care providers must be proactively aware of these evolving trends and tailor age-appropriate and region-specific screening strategies, as well as allocate resources accordingly.

Cancer registration in Iceland for 70 years - incidence, mortality and survival

The Icelandic Cancer Registry (ICR) was founded seventy years ago by the Icelandic Cancer Society. In 2007 the ICR became one of the health registers of the Directorate of Health. In this paper we present cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in Iceland over 70 years. The ICR receives information on cancer diagnoses from histopathological laboratories, the Hospital Discharge Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. Iceland participates in the Nordic cancer database NORDCAN. Because of the small population size, random variation in numbers is very prominent. Therefore, data from ICR are published as five-year averages. For all malignancies combined, age-standardized incidence (ASI) in men rose steadily until around 15 years ago when a decline started. This is in line with prostate- and lung cancer incidence trends. In women, the ASI was lower than in men, but it is still on the rise despite declining lung cancer incidence. ASI for breast cancer, the most common cancer in women, is increasing. Simultaneously, cancer mortality for both sexes has declined in recent years and cancer survival is improving. Population-based cancer registration for over 70 years makes it possible to monitor the epidemiology of cancer in Iceland and compare with other countries. The changes in trends in ASI are in line with changes of cancer risk factors and diagnostic policy. The decline in cancer mortality and improvement in survival reflects advances in cancer treatment as well as effects of early detection and prevention.

Global burden of osteoarthritis in adults aged 30 to 44 years, 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a common orthopedic disorder, and its incidence has been increasing among young adults in recent years. The purpose of this study is to investigate the global, regional, and national trends in OA burden and variation among individuals aged 30 to 44 from 1990 to 2019. Data on the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) related to OA were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 among individuals aged 30 to 44. These measures were stratified by gender, region, country, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Additionally, we analyzed YLDs attributable to risk factors. In 2019, there were a total of 32,971,701 cases of OA among individuals aged 30 to 44 years worldwide, with an additional 7,794,008 new incident cases reported. OA of the knee was the primary contributor to both incidence and prevalence rates over the past three decades. From 1990 to 2019, both males and females in countries with high SDI and high-middle SDI showed upward trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rates. In 2019, the United States of America had the highest age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rates. Elevated body-mass index (BMI) was found to be the most prevalent risk factor for osteoarthritis-related YLDs. Age-standardized YLDs rates were positively associated with SDI. OA remains a significant disease burden on individuals aged 30 to 44, with modifiable risk factors such as unhealthy lifestyle and obesity representing key targets for future interventions aimed at reducing the impact of this condition on younger generations.

Global burden of neck pain in 204 countries from 1990-2019.

The estimation of global burden of neck pain is lacking. To estimate the trends and burden of neck pain by sex, age, region, and sociodemographic index (SDI). The incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) data for neck pain were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the trends in age-standardized incidence and DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate indicated downward trends, with EAPCs of -0.06 and -0.09, respectively. The EAPCs of the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate were negatively correlated with the SDI in 2019, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rates and age-standardized DALY rates in regions with a high SDI indicated a downward trend, including in high-income North America, Australia, and New Zealand. In 2019, the Philippines and high-income North America had the highest age-standardized incidence and age-standardized DALY rates. From 1990 to 2019, the areas which increased most rapidly in the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate were in tropical Latin America (EAPCs of 0.53 and 0.60, respectively). Brazil had the most rapid increase in the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate (EAPCs of 0.55 and 0.61, respectively). The age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate of neck pain decreased globally from 1990 to 2019. However, there were significant differences concerning sex, age, and regional distributions. Therefore, targeted prevention interventions and risk factor control measures should be reasonably allocated.

Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years

BackgroundThe specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the number of new cases and deaths cases due to OC in the China cohort from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates were evaluated by joinpoint regression models. The incidence and mortality rates and the estimated number of cases from 2020 to 2049 were predicted using the Bayesian age–period–cohort model.ResultsConsecutive increasing trends in age-standardized incidence (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90–2.16; p < 0.001) and mortality (AAPC = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.38−1.78; p < 0.001) rates in OC were observed from 1990–2019 in China. Theoretically, both the estimated age-standardized (per 100,000 women) incidence (from 4.77 in 2019 to 8.95 in 2049) and mortality (from 2.88 in 2019 to 4.03 in 2049) rates will continue to increase substantially in the coming 30 years. And the estimated number of new cases of, and deaths from OC will increase by more than 3 times between 2019 and 2049.ConclusionsThe disease burden of OC in incidence and mortality has been increasing in China over the past 30 years and will be predicted to increase continuously in the coming three decades.

Burden of oral disorders, 1990-2019: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

The aim of this study was to understand the global incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of oral disorders by age, gender, region, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the trends in age-standardized incidence and DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. The global age-standardized incidence rate (EAPC = 0.01) of oral disorders increased slightly from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate decreased in high-SDI (EAPC = -0.43) and high-middle-SDI (EAPC = -0.14) regions, but it showed increasing trends in low-SDI (EAPC = 0.22), low-middle-SDI (EAPC = 0.36), and middle-SDI (EAPC = 0.17) regions. The EAPC in the age-standardized DALY rate was negatively correlated with the regional SDI value (ρ = -0.402, p = 0.001). From 1990 to 2019, the region with the largest increase in age-standardized DALY rate was South Asia (EAPC = 0.67), while the country with the greatest increase in age-standardized DALY rate was India (EAPC = 0.82). From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized incidence rate of oral disorders showed a slight increasing trend. It is necessary to control the increase in DALY and the disease burden associated with oral disorders in low-, low-middle-, and middle-SDI regions, such as South Asia, particularly in India.

The global burden of periodontal diseases in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

The aim of this study was to report the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of periodontal diseases during the period 1990-2019. Data on periodontal diseases were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019. The estimated annual percentage changes were calculated to evaluate the changing trend of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates related to periodontal diseases. Globally, there were 1,087,367,744.0 cases with 91,518,820.6 new incidence and 7,090,390.3 DALYs of periodontal diseases in 2019, almost twice as many as in 1990. Moreover, the pace of increase in age-standardized incidence, age-standardized prevalence, and age-standardized DALY rates had accelerated during the 1990-2019 time period, with EAPC of 0.29 (95% CI, 0.22 to 0.35), 0.34 (95% CI, 0.26 to 0.43), and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.27 to 0.44) separately. The corresponding age-standardized percentage changes were more pronounced in females, Southeast Asia, and low-middle SDI regions. Western Sub-Saharan Africa was the high-risk area of standardized periodontal diseases burden in 2019, among which Gambia was the country with the heaviest burden. The globally incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of periodontal diseases are substantially increased from 1990 to 2019, which highlights the importance and urgency of periodontal care.

Burden of tuberculosis and its association with socio-economic development status in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) always runs in the forefront of the global burden when it comes to infectious diseases. Tuberculosis, which can lead to impairment of quality of life, financial hardship, discrimination, marginalization, and social barriers, is a major public health problem. The assessment of TB burden and trend can provide crucial information for policy decision and planning, and help countries in the world to achieve the goal of sustainable development of ending the epidemic of TB in 2030.MethodsAll data are from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) database, which analyzed the burden trend of age-standardized incidence, DALYs, and deaths rate in TB and HIV/AIDS-infected TB over the past 30 years. Also, GBD 2019 not only analyzed the burden distribution of TB in 204 countries and main regions of the world but also analyzed the relationship between the burden of global TB and the socio–demographic Index (SDI).ResultsThe age-standardized incidence, age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized deaths rate for HIV-negative TB were 10,671.45 (9,395.60–12,194.10), 59,042.45 (53,684.78–64,641.53), and 1,463.62 (1,339.24–1,602.71) (95% CI, per 100,000 person-years) in 2019, respectively. Age-standardized incidence, age-standardized DALYs, and age-standardized deaths rate of HIV/AIDS-XDR-TB (95% CI, per 1,000 person-years) were 2.10 (1.51–2.90), 64.23 (28.64–117.74), and 1.01 (0.42–1.86), respectively. We found that TB is inversely proportional to SDI, the age-standardized incidence, DALYs, and deaths rate low burden countries were in high SDI areas, while high burden countries were in low SDI areas. The global TB showed a slow decline trend, but the age-standardized incidence of HIV-positive TB was increasing, and mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa.ConclusionAge-standardized incidence, age-standardized DALYs, and age-standardized deaths rate of TB is related to SDI, and the burden of low SDI countries is lighter than that of high SDI countries. Without effective measures, it will be difficult for countries around the world to achieve the goal of ending the TB epidemic by 2030. Effective control of the spread of TB requires concerted efforts from all countries in the world, especially in the countries with low SDI, which need to improve the diagnosis and preventive measures of TB and improve the control of HIV/AIDS-TB.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, Part 1: National Cancer Statistics.

BackgroundThe American Cancer Society, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Cancer Institute, and North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer incidence and mortality and trends by cancer type, sex, age group, and racial/ethnic group in the United States. In this report, we also examine trends in stage-specific survival for melanoma of the skin (melanoma).MethodsIncidence data for all cancers from 2001 through 2017 and survival data for melanoma cases diagnosed during 2001-2014 and followed-up through 2016 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention- and National Cancer Institute-funded population-based cancer registry programs compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Data on cancer deaths from 2001 to 2018 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates and 2-year relative survival were estimated by joinpoint analysis, and trends in incidence and mortality were expressed as average annual percent change (AAPC) during the most recent 5 years (2013-2017 for incidence and 2014-2018 for mortality).ResultsOverall cancer incidence rates (per 100 000 population) for all ages during 2013-2017 were 487.4 among males and 422.4 among females. During this period, incidence rates remained stable among males but slightly increased in females (AAPC = 0.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.1% to 0.2%). Overall cancer death rates (per 100 000 population) during 2014-2018 were 185.5 among males and 133.5 among females. During this period, overall death rates decreased in both males (AAPC = −2.2%, 95% CI = −2.5% to −1.9%) and females (AAPC = −1.7%, 95% CI = −2.1% to −1.4%); death rates decreased for 11 of the 19 most common cancers among males and for 14 of the 20 most common cancers among females, but increased for 5 cancers in each sex. During 2014-2018, the declines in death rates accelerated for lung cancer and melanoma, slowed down for colorectal and female breast cancers, and leveled off for prostate cancer. Among children younger than age 15 years and adolescents and young adults aged 15-39 years, cancer death rates continued to decrease in contrast to the increasing incidence rates. Two-year relative survival for distant-stage skin melanoma was stable for those diagnosed during 2001-2009 but increased by 3.1% (95% CI = 2.8% to 3.5%) per year for those diagnosed during 2009-2014, with comparable trends among males and females.ConclusionsCancer death rates in the United States continue to decline overall and for many cancer types, with the decline accelerated for lung cancer and melanoma. For several other major cancers, however, death rates continue to increase or previous declines in rates have slowed or ceased. Moreover, overall incidence rates continue to increase among females, children, and adolescents and young adults. These findings inform efforts related to prevention, early detection, and treatment and for broad and equitable implementation of effective interventions, especially among under resourced populations.

A rapidly increasing trend of thyroid cancer incidence in selected East Asian countries: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses.

This study described the incidence and mortality trends and analyzed age-period-cohort effects on incidences in China, Japan, and Korea. Data were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series and the World Health Organization Cancer Mortality Database, and the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates by Segi's world population were calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate the time trend of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and the age-period-cohort model with intrinsic estimator was applied for estimating the effects of age, period, and cohort on thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in individuals between 20 and 84 years of age. An increasing trend in TC incidence rates was observed among males from China (10.3%), Japan (4.7%), and Korea (20.8%) and among females from China (9.4%), Japan (3.5%), and Korea (20.5%). TC incidence rates in females were much higher than those in males. A downward trend of TC mortality rates was observed, especially in both sexes of Japan and Chinese females. The slope of the age effect curve peaked at an earlier age in females than males in Japan and Korea. A strong period effect and remarkedly increasing rate ratios were observed in all regions and for both sexes. The cohort effect had a declining tendency on TC incidence in males and females in these areas. The rapidly upward incidence trend and strong period effect suggest that overdiagnosis caused by higher diagnostic intensity might be an explanation for the upward trend, and some environmental risk factor exposures are also not excluded. In addition, the discrepant trends of TC incidence and mortality reveal the need to identify the few high-risk patients who needed further treatment from those patients who may not need treatment.

National trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of acute kidney injury in Peru.

ABSTRACTIntroduction: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common disorder that causes high healthcare costs. There are limited epidemiological studies of this disorder in low- and middle-income countries. The aim of this study was to describe trends in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AKI in Peru.Methods: We conducted an ecological study based on a secondary data sources of the basic cause of death from healthcare and death records obtained from establishments of the Ministry of Health of Peru for the period 2005-2016. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AKI were described by region and trend effects were estimated by linear regression models.Results:During the period 2005-2016, 26,633 cases of AKI were reported nationwide. The age-standardized incidence rate of AKI per 100,000 people increased by 15.2%, from 10.5 (period 2005-2010) to 12.1 (period 2011-2016). During the period 2005-2016, 6,812 deaths due to AKI were reported, which represented 0.49% of all deaths reported for that period in Peru. The age-standardized mortality rate of AKI per 100,000 people decreased by 11.1%, from 2.7 (period 2005-2010) to 2.4 (period 2011-2016). The greatest incidence and mortality rates were observed in the age group older than 60 years.Conclusions: During the study period, incidence of AKI increased and mortality decreased, with heterogeneous variations among regions.

Primary epidemiological evaluation of the effectiveness of the All-National Dispensarization as a cancer screening by the data of the Arkhangelsk Regional Cancer Registry

Purpose of the study . Was to assess the variations of the incidence rate and Stage I proportion of screened malignant neoplasms (MNs) before and after the implementation of All-National Dispensarization of certain groups of the adult population (DCGAP) based on data from the Arkhangelsk Regional Cancer Registry (AOCR). Materials and methods . Anonymous data were taken from the AOCR database about all cases of each of the index MNs (colon, rectum, lung, mammary gland, cervix, uterus, ovary, prostate, and kidney) from 2000 to 2018. The change over time of the number of new cases, crude, age-standardized incidence and the proportion of Stage I, were estimated. The intervention value of the DCGAP was considered positive if a change in the linear trend of selected indicators was detected with segmented regression between 2012 and 2014. Results . The final sample included 46146 cases of MNs. The annual number of new cases and crude incidence for all taken for the analysis MNs from 2000 to 2018 have been increasing. After standardization by age, an increase in incidence was observed for all index MNs, except for lung cancer. In the segmented regression model, this increase for majority MNs was monotonous with an annual percentage change (APC) from 1.5% (for ovarian cancer) to 5.0% (cervical cancer). In prostate cancer, a change of the linear trend of age-standardized incidence with an increase of 8.5% per year was detected in 2012. The proportion of Stage I did not change or increased monotonously after the introduction of DC¬GAP in uterus, ovarian, and colon cancers. An increasing change of the trend of annual Stage I proportion was found in colorectal cancer since 2010, breast cancer since 2011, cervical cancer since 2013, prostate cancer since 2014, kidneys since 2006 with APC by 7.5%, 9, 6%, 9.6%, 40.3%, 13.4%, respectively. Conclusion . Diagnostic tests used in the framework of the DCGAP are sensitive to the detection of early stages of cancer of the breast, cervix, and prostate; for colorectal cancer and kidney cancer, their value is doubtful. The effectiveness of early diagnosis is not confirmed for the lung, uterus, ovarian cancers. For screening-sensitive MNs, an analysis of mortality and survival is necessary.

Changing trends in liver cancer incidence by race/ethnicity and sex in the US: 1992\u20132016

PurposeLiver cancer incidence continues to increase while incidence of most other cancers is decreasing. We analyze recent and long-term trends of US liver cancer incidence by race/ethnicity and sex to best understand where to focus preventive efforts.MethodsLiver cancer incidence rates from 1992 to 2016 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. Delay-adjusted age-standardized incidence trends by race/ethnicity and sex were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Age-specific incidence was analyzed using age-period-cohort models. Hepatitis C seroprevalence by cohort was calculated using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data.ResultsLiver cancer incidence has peaked in males and Asian or Pacific Islanders. Hispanic males, a high-incidence population, are experiencing a decrease in incidence, although not yet statistically significant. In contrast, incidence continues to increase in females, although at lower rates than in the 1990s, and American Indian/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs). Liver cancer incidence continues to be higher in males. Non-Hispanic Whites have the lowest incidence among racial/ethnic groups. Trends largely reflect differences in incidence by birth-cohort, which increased considerably, particularly in males, for those born around the 1950s, and continues to increase in females and AI/ANs. The patterns in males are likely driven by cohort variations in Hepatitis C infection.ConclusionsLiver cancer incidence appears to have peaked among males. However, important differences in liver cancer trends by race/ethnicity and sex remain, highlighting the need for monitoring trends across different groups. Preventive interventions should focus on existing liver cancer disparities, targeting AI/ANs, females, and high-incidence groups.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, Featuring Cancer in Men and Women Age 20-49 Years.

BackgroundThe American Cancer Society, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Cancer Institute, and North American Association of Central Cancer Registries provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends by cancer type, sex, race, ethnicity, and age in the United States. This year’s report highlights the cancer burden among men and women age 20–49 years.MethodsIncidence data for the years 1999 to 2015 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention- and National Cancer Institute–funded population-based cancer registry programs compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and death data for the years 1999 to 2016 from the National Vital Statistics System were used. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates, estimated by joinpoint, were expressed as average annual percent change.ResultsOverall cancer incidence rates (per 100 000) for all ages during 2011–2015 were 494.3 among male patients and 420.5 among female patients; during the same time period, incidence rates decreased 2.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = −2.6% to −1.6%) per year in men and were stable in females. Overall cancer death rates (per 100 000) for all ages during 2012–2016 were 193.1 among male patients and 137.7 among female patients. During 2012–2016, overall cancer death rates for all ages decreased 1.8% (95% CI = −1.8% to −1.8%) per year in male patients and 1.4% (95% CI = −1.4% to −1.4%) per year in females. Important changes in trends were stabilization of thyroid cancer incidence rates in women and rapid declines in death rates for melanoma of the skin (both sexes). Among adults age 20–49 years, overall cancer incidence rates were substantially lower among men (115.3 per 100 000) than among women (203.3 per 100 000); cancers with the highest incidence rates (per 100 000) among men were colon and rectum (13.1), testis (10.7), and melanoma of the skin (9.8), and among women were breast (73.2), thyroid (28.4), and melanoma of the skin (14.1). During 2011 to 2015, the incidence of all invasive cancers combined among adults age 20–49 years decreased −0.7% (95% CI = −1.0% to −0.4%) among men and increased among women (1.3%, 95% CI = 0.7% to 1.9%). The death rate for (per 100 000) adults age 20–49 years for all cancer sites combined during 2012 to 2016 was 22.8 among men and 27.1 among women; during the same time period, death rates decreased 2.3% (95% CI = −2.4% to −2.2%) per year among men and 1.7% (95% CI = −1.8% to −1.6%) per year among women.ConclusionsAmong people of all ages and ages 20–49 years, favorable as well as unfavorable trends in site-specific cancer incidence were observed, whereas trends in death rates were generally favorable. Characterizing the cancer burden may inform research and cancer-control efforts.

Secular trends in end-stage kidney disease requiring renal replacement therapy in Japan: Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy Registry data from 1983 to 2016.

We aimed to describe secular trends in the incidence of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) in Japan, and to assess the effect of population aging on the incidence of ESKD. The national incidence of ESKD requiring RRT was calculated using published data and Japan's population statistics. Age-standardized incidence was calculated by direct standardization using the World Standard Population. The average annual percentage of change (APC) in rates and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed for trends by joinpoint regression analysis. To assess the effect of population aging on the incidence of ESKD requiring RRT, we used the method proposed by Bashir and Estève, which splits the crude incidence into three components: population structure, population size, and age-independent risk. Age-standardized incidence trends (1983-1996) increased significantly in both men (APC 6.33, 95% CI: 5.39-7.29) and women (APC 5.25, 95% CI: 4.26-6.24). With a significant inflection point in 1996, the trend was stable for men (APC -0.16, 95% CI: -0.48 to 0.17) but significantly decreased for women (APC -1.98, 95% CI: -2.38 to -1.59) from 1996 to 2016. The main reason for the increase in those with ESKD requiring RRT has changed; before 1996, the change in age-independent risk was the main contributor, but after 1996, the change in age structure with a higher proportion of older individuals was the main contributor. The increase in number of ESKD patients requiring RRT dramatically changed in Japan during the 1983 to 2016 period.

What has changed in the epidemiology of skin melanoma in central Italy during the past 20 years?

The aim was to evaluate changes in skin melanoma incidence and mortality at a population level in central Italy over the past two decades. Skin melanoma incidence rate from 1994 to 2014, were retrieved from the Umbrian Cancer Registry (about 900 000 inhabitants). Changes from 1994-1999 to 2010-2014 in tumour and patient characteristics - sex, age (0-44, 45-64, ≥ 65 years), site (head and neck, trunk, limbs), morphology (superficial spreading, nodular, other), thickness (≤ 1, 1-2, 2-4, > 4) and stage I-II, III-IV - were evaluated. Trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were evaluated as annual percent change. During the past two decades, melanoma incidence significantly increased in both sexes (+6%/year among men and +4%/year among women) and in all ages (0-44 years: + 4.7 and + 4.3; 45-64 years: + 6.1 and + 4.4; ≥65 years: + 6.6 and + 1.7), morphologies, except nodular, and stages. Mortality was stable among men and women. In the area, incidence increased for thin and thick melanoma, showing a true increase, whereas mortality did not increase. Therefore, although improvements in treatment and downstaging effect of early diagnosis have to be considered, a certain degree of overdiagnosis cannot be ruled out.

Prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Portugal: trends, projections and regional differences.

There is a large geographical variability in prostate cancer incidence and mortality trends, mostly because of heterogeneity in control efforts across regions. We aimed to describe the time trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Portugal, overall and by region, and to estimate the number of incident cases and deaths in 2020. The number of cases and incidence rates in 1998-2009 were collected from the Regional Cancer Registries. The number of deaths and mortality rates were obtained from the WHO mortality database (1988-2003 and 2007-2013) and Statistics Portugal (2004-2006; 1991-2013 by region). JoinPoint analyses were used to identify significant changes in trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. Incidence and mortality predictions for 2020 were performed using Poisson regression models and population projections provided by Statistics Portugal. In Portugal, prostate cancer incidence has been increasing since 1998 (1.8%/year), with the exception of the North Region, with a decrease since 2006 (-3.2%/year). An overall mortality decline has been observed since 1997 (-2.2%/year), although there were two patterns of mortality variation at the regional level: one with an inflection point or significant variation in the rates and the other without significant variation. If these trends are maintained, ∼8600 incident cases and 1700 deaths may be expected to occur in Portugal in 2020. Despite the overall increasing incidence and decreasing mortality, there is a large heterogeneity across regions. Future studies should address regional differences in the trends of prostate specific antigen screening and in the effective management of prostate cancer.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2014, Featuring Survival.

Background: The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This Annual Report highlights survival rates. Methods: Data were from the CDC- and NCI-funded population-based cancer registry programs and compiled by NAACCR. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex were estimated by joinpoint analysis and expressed as annual percent change. We used relative survival ratios and adjusted relative risk of death after a diagnosis of cancer (hazard ratios [HRs]) using Cox regression model to examine changes or differences in survival over time and by sociodemographic factors. Results: Overall cancer death rates from 2010 to 2014 decreased by 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = –1.8 to –1.8) per year in men, by 1.4% (95% CI = –1.4 to –1.3) per year in women, and by 1.6% (95% CI = –2.0 to –1.3) per year in children. Death rates decreased for 11 of the 16 most common cancer types in men and for 13 of the 18 most common cancer types in women, including lung, colorectal, female breast, and prostate, whereas death rates increased for liver (men and women), pancreas (men), brain (men), and uterine cancers. In contrast, overall incidence rates from 2009 to 2013 decreased by 2.3% (95% CI = –3.1 to –1.4) per year in men but stabilized in women. For several but not all cancer types, survival statistically significantly improved over time for both early and late-stage diseases. Between 1975 and 1977, and 2006 and 2012, for example, five-year relative survival for distant-stage disease statistically significantly increased from 18.7% (95% CI = 16.9% to 20.6%) to 33.6% (95% CI = 32.2% to 35.0%) for female breast cancer but not for liver cancer (from 1.1%, 95% CI = 0.3% to 2.9%, to 2.3%, 95% CI = 1.6% to 3.2%). Survival varied by race/ethnicity and state. For example, the adjusted relative risk of death for all cancers combined was 33% (HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.34) higher in non-Hispanic blacks and 51% (HR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.46 to 1.56) higher in non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native compared with non-Hispanic whites. Conclusions: Cancer death rates continue to decrease in the United States. However, progress in reducing death rates and improving survival is limited for several cancer types, underscoring the need for intensified efforts to discover new strategies for prevention, early detection, and treatment and to apply proven preventive measures broadly and equitably.

Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence Rates by Histological Type in 1975-2008: A Population-Based Study in Osaka, Japan.

BackgroundMonitoring trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality is important for the evaluation of cancer control activities. We investigated recent trends in age-standardized incidence rates by histological type of lung cancer in Osaka, Japan.MethodsCancer incidence data for 1975–2008 were obtained from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Lung cancer mortality data with population data in Osaka during 1975–2012 were obtained from vital statistics. We examined trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for all histological types and age-standardized incidence rates by histological type and age group using a joinpoint regression model.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer levelled off or slightly increased from 1975–2008, with an annual percentage change of 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%–0.4%) for males and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%–1.3%) for females, and the mortality rate decreased by 0.9% (95% CI, 1.2%–0.7%) for males and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.8%–0.3%) for females. The incidence rates of squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) and small cell carcinoma (SMC) significantly decreased for both genders, whereas that of adenocarcinoma (ADC) significantly increased among almost all age groups in both genders.ConclusionsThe incidence rates of SQC and SMC decreased with the decline in smoking prevalence, which probably explains the change in trends in the incidence rates of lung cancer from the mid-1980s. However, the reason for the increase in ADC remains unclear. Therefore, trends in incidence rates of lung cancer should be carefully monitored, especially for ADC, and the associations between ADC and its possible risk factors should be studied.