Trends In Supply Research Articles

A LSTM-based time series prediction model for China's power supply and its performance evaluation

With the rapid development of China's economy and the acceleration of urbanisation, the stability and sustainability of power supply has become increasingly important. In order to cope with the continuous growth of power demand, accurate power supply prediction has become an essential research direction. In this paper, a time series prediction model for power supply is constructed based on the long short-term memory network (LSTM). Power supply data is organised using methods such as data pre-processing and correlation analysis, and the LSTM model is used to predict future power supply. The performance of the prediction results was evaluated, and the results showed that the model can effectively capture the changing trends of power supply, with high reliability and accuracy, providing important support for scientific management and policy formulation in the power industry.

GP working time and supply, and patient demand in England in 2015-2022: a retrospective study.

English primary care faces a reduction in GP supply and increased demand. To explore trends in GP working time and supply, accounting for factors influencing demand for services. Retrospective observational study in English primary care between 2015 and 2022. Trends in median GP contracted time commitment were calculated using annual workforce datasets. Three measures of demand were calculated at practice-level: numbers of patients; numbers of older patients (≥65 years); and numbers of chronic conditions using 21 Quality and Outcomes Framework disease registers. Multi-level Poisson models were used to assess associations between GP supply and practice demand, adjusted for deprivation, region, and year. Between 2015 and 2022, the median full-time equivalent (FTE) of a fully qualified GP decreased from 0.80 to 0.69. There was a 9% increase in registered population per GP FTE (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.14). This increase was steeper using numbers of chronic conditions (32%, IRR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.26 to 1.38). Practices in the most deprived decile had 17% more patients (IRR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.27) and 19% more chronic conditions (IRR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.33) per GP FTE, compared with the least deprived decile. These disparities persisted over time. All regions reported more chronic conditions per GP FTE than London. Population demand per GP has increased, particularly in terms of chronic conditions. This increase is driven by several factors, including a reduction in GP contracted time commitments. Persistent deprivation gradients in GP supply highlight the need to recruit and retain GPs more equitably.

Supply Trends and Regional Distribution Analysis of the Domestic Natural Stone Industry in Korea

Supply Trends and Regional Distribution Analysis of the Domestic Natural Stone Industry in Korea

Development path for China's mega-large urban agglomerations based on the water-energy-food nexus

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) mega-large urban agglomeration of China (CMUA) has significantly contributed to Chinese socioeconomic development. However, it faces severe shortages in the supply to meet the increasing demand of water, energy, and food resources (WEF). In order to safeguard the resource security of CMUA-BTH and the synergistic development of cities, and to compensate for the lack of dynamic analysis between urban agglomerations and WEF in previous studies. In this study, a coupled CMUA-WEF simulation model is developed based on the system dynamics approach. The model not only studies the three elements of WEF, supply and demand, but also conducts a comparative analysis of the three regions of BTH, and designs a total of four scenarios based on the possibility of future development, so as to facilitate the depiction of the trend of the WEF supply and demand system under different scenarios, and to provide theoretical basis for the government to formulate effective policy. The results show that: (1) Regarding demand, the aggregate demand for energy, food and water in the BTH will increase by about 3–5 times, 3 times, and 2 times, respectively, from 2000 to 2050, among which the total demand for energy will increase most significantly. In contrast, the variation of local resource supply side is small, which leads to the deterioration of resource security. (2) The risk of water shortage is the greatest in resource security, with less than 30% self-sufficiency in water security in all three regions. (3) Scenario analysis for CMUA-BTH indicates that “choking flow” (S3) yields more pronounced effects compared to “open source” (S2), and therefore adhering to the reduction of food waste, promoting energy-saving technologies, and intensifying water-saving measures can effectively reduce the risk of water shortages in the three regions. Optimal resource security in S4 increases Hebei's water pressure by 1.5%, alleviates Beijing's pressure by 7.3%, and the implementation of the Xiongan New Area and the new energy development policy can help realize the synergistic development of BTH and the inter-regional linkage.

The Supply of Surgical Specialists and Subspecialists to the U.S. Medicare Population: National Trends from 2013 to 2019.

The U.S. population is rapidly aging. The supply of surgeons needed to meet this demand should be evaluated. This study evaluated the trends in supply of Medicare surgeons by specialty and by U.S. state and region. All surgeons associated with a National Provider Identifier for cardiothoracic surgery, colorectal surgery, general surgery, gynecologic oncology, hand surgery, neurosurgery, obstetrics-gynecology, ophthalmology, oral and maxillofacial surgery, orthopedic surgery, otolaryngology, plastic and reconstructive surgery, surgical oncology, urology, and vascular surgery from 2013 to 2019 on the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services website were included. The absolute number of physicians was adjusted per 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries. Annual change was calculated by linear regression model, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was calculated per specialty. The absolute number of physicians per 100,000 beneficiaries increased in 6 of 15 specialties during the study period. Vascular surgery had the largest annual increase (+0.23; CAGR, +2.75%), and obstetrics-gynecology had the largest annual decrease (-1.08; CAGR, -1.44%). Surgical oncology showed the largest positive CAGR (+4.20%). Oral and maxillofacial surgery had the largest negative CAGR (-2.86%). The Northeast was above the national average in supply for each specialty. The Midwest had the most specialties with positive CAGRs. The South did not meet the national average for physicians in any specialty. This analysis of 15 surgical specialties provides important context to predicted physician shortages to the Medicare population. The study found geographic variation by region across specialty, which has important implications for health care planning from the level of undergraduate medical education to provision of hospital resources. Overall, the supply of surgeons across all specialties may not be sufficient to meet the demand of the rapidly aging U.S. population. Future study is needed to evaluate why surgeons are leaving the Medicare program.

Supply chain and logistics in smart cities: A systematic literature review

Rapid urban expansion gives rise to smart cities which pose immense logistical and supply chain challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic transformed the holistic system identified by Zhao et al. in 2021. The system encompasses logistics and supply chain integral to the concept of smart cities, with a focus on sustainability. This transformation requires an in-depth study on challenges of a common framework of policies for smart cities in countries comprising the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The study employs an extensive literature analysis for the period 2020–2022. an approach which contextualizes the model. The model identifies the causes, impact, and spillovers of new trends in logistics and supply, including the sustainability of adopted technologies. The study includes the variables involved, and barriers to creating a shared model. The results reveal that the two elements affecting the supply chain and transport in smart cities are Industry 4.0 and 5.0 technologies supporting specific sectors. The resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises positively impacts the sustainability of large urban centres. The study presents both factors that help and hinder the adoption of environmental, social, and economic sustainability technologies.

Effects of technical advance on cobalt supply and its supply trends: A perspective of the whole industrial chains

By coupling dynamic material flow analysis and econometric models, the effects of technical advance on cobalt supply in the whole industrial chains are explored. Then, its supply trends are investigated at the global and national levels. The results show that: (1) the impact of technical advance on cobalt supply in the mining stage is inverted U-shape, while in the other stages, they are linear promotions. (2) Technical advance could increase global primary supply by up to 10 % from current production capacity. By 2030, secondary and total supplies will reach 79 kt and 251 kt or even more. (3) Refined cobalt supply share of China is expected to be 76 % by 2030. The European Union will produce the largest secondary supply, followed by China, the United States and Japan. (4) With the simultaneous development of technologies in each stage, supply-demand balance could be realized under some ideal scenarios. The above findings help intuitively recognize the roles of technical advance and strengthen the determination to do it.

Spatial Patterns of Water Supply and Use in California

Spatial and temporal patterns of water supply and consumptive water use were analyzed from 475 Detailed Analysis Units by County (DAUCOs) spatial units across California during 2002 through 2016 to evaluate spatial and temporal variability and how it might associate with precipitation variability and other factors. Many, but not all, DAUCOs have relatively low total water supply variability compared to that of state-wide precipitation. Such low variability, in DAUCOs having sufficient diversity of water supply sources, is the result of switching between sources as needed to maintain a reliable total water supply. We used multiple approaches to explore these variations which involved four categories of water supply (local, groundwater, imported, and other) and two categories of water use (agricultural and urban). First, a cluster analysis of the volumetric water balance data identified a small set of clusters having similar magnitudes and proportions of water supply sources and water use—some of them composed of only a few DAUCOs but accounting for a disproportionate amount of the state’s water use. Second, a principal components analysis identified leading modes of anomalous water supply and water use among the 475 DAUCOs, capturing most of the time variation during 2002 to 2016. The most prominent mode exhibits a multi-year trend, most strongly involving increasing groundwater supply and agricultural water use, and decreasing urban water use and imported water supply. Over the study period, trends in both supply and use were pronounced, but differed considerably across California DAUCOs. One predominant subset of DAUCOs grew their agricultural water use with increased groundwater supply; in contrast to a widespread group of DAUCOs which reduced their urban water use. An important result for planners is our finding that variation in precipitation—itself important—is amplified by the human response to water supply availability and regulatory policy.

Exploration on the Development of Photovoltaic Power Generation Path in China Based on the Goal of “Double Carbon”

Electric energy is an economic, practical, clean, and easy to control and transform the form of energy, power industry in the national economy occupies a very important position. This paper focuses on the prediction of the development trend of power supply, analyzes the current situation of domestic power supply by selecting relevant indicators, predicts the development trend of power supply in 2024-2060, and discusses the main influencing factors of its development. At the same time, a dynamic programming model is established, particle swarm optimization is used to initially explore the maximum value of China's total photovoltaic power generation and the impact of related economic and policy factors on the total power generation, and the relevant conclusions are given.

Changes in soil erosion caused by wildfire: A conceptual biogeographic model

Soil erosion rates after wildfire are strongly controlled by intrinsic properties such as topography, weather, climate, soil, and vegetation. These landscape and hydroclimatic properties are important in determining post-fire erosion rates; however, their influence on post-fire erosion and their interaction with the intensity of a wildfire remains uncertain. A key limitation in resolving this uncertainty is the lack of conceptual models and frameworks for organising data related to the geomorphic sensitivity of landscapes to wildfire. Our aim is to develop a framework for consolidating understanding of post-fire erosion in the context of hydroclimatic conditions which contribute to system states, for example soil and vegetation properties, and wildfire regime. The framework is developed around a simple conceptual model where the change in erosion due to wildfire is a product of change in runoff generation and sediment supply, which is strongly related to landscape net primary productivity (NPP). We hypothesised that geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire should vary as a unimodal humped relationship across a gradient of NPP, peaking at an intermediate level. To develop this framework and to test the hypothesis, we first review intrinsic soil and vegetation properties related to the supply and transport of sediment from burned and unburned hillslopes. Net primary productivity is systematically related to these intrinsic properties because it integrates many processes involved in soil and vegetation development. Empirical data indicate a trend in the change in surface runoff generation with NPP after wildfire, peaking at an NPP of approximately 15 Mg C ha−1 y−1. A simple model of fuel availability and soil heating are correlated with a similar “humped” trend in sediment supply. These results are consistent with our conceptual model, which indicates that sediment supply and runoff contribute towards a distinct peak in wildfire effects on erosion at an intermediate level of NPP. We propose that landscapes of intermediate NPP typically have the highest quantity of fuel available to burn, which cause large changes to the soil surface properties. Landscapes at intermediate NPP also tend to produce intrinsic soil and vegetation properties that promote erosion after wildfire. The interplay between these short and long-term landscape characteristics is strongest at intermediate levels of NPP. Our proposed biogeographic model of geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire was supported by erosion data from burned hillslope and zero-order catchments studies from a range fire-prone landscapes in Australia and North America. Our proposed conceptual model will help identify areas most vulnerable to post-fire erosion changes.

The Quantity Theory of Money, Quantitative Easing and the Missing Inflation Phenomenon

Abstract Several explanations have been put forward for the observation that massive inflation has not appeared as a result of the explosive monetary growth generated by quantitative easing that was in 2008. Several plausible explanations have been put forward for this observation, but none of them can explain the huge gap between monetary inflation and price inflation. The alternative explanation presented in this paper is that monetary inflation is more reflected in stock prices than the CPI. It is demonstrated that by adjusting the CPI to reflect changes in stock prices, the gap between the trends of the money supply the CPI can be almost eliminated.

A spatially explicit framework for assessing ecosystem service supply risk under multiple land‐use scenarios in the Xi'an Metropolitan Area of China

AbstractRapid global urbanization has perturbed ecosystem structures and functions, resulting in ecological risk and threatening sustainable human well‐being and socioeconomic development. However, scientific indicators to analyze ecosystem service (ES) risk patterns need to be explored in detail. In addition, studies on ES supply risk are stagnating on historical or status explorations, especially from the view of disturbance from land‐use changes. This study seeks to develop a framework for modeling past‐future ES supply risk pattern evaluation and probing into ES risk patterns under different future land‐use scenarios. To achieve this objective, the framework integrates the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, the Intelligent Urban Ecosystem Management System (IUEMS) model, and an established indicator system incorporating ES supply trend, hotspots and coldspots, and ES trade‐offs, and synergies. The results show that: (1) In 2050, the supply of climate regulation in the Xi'an Metropolitan Area (XMA) will increase, while that of carbon sequestration and recreation will decrease. In 2050, the supply of climate regulation is the highest under ecological protection (EP) scenario, while the supply of carbon sequestration and recreation are the highest under cropland protection (CP) scenario. (2) From 2000 to 2050, the hotspots and coldspots of climate regulation increase in both natural development (ND) scenario and CP scenario. Notably, CP scenario experiences the most significant reduction in extremely significant hotspots and coldspots of carbon sequestration. From 2000 to 2050, at the regional and pixel scales, climate regulation and carbon sequestration mainly show trade‐offs, and carbon sequestration and recreation show synergies. (3) ES supply risk in XMA is high in the center and low in the north and south. The ES supply risk from 2000 to 2050 is increasing, with expanding “extremely high risk”, “high risk”, and “extremely safe” areas. ES supply risk management should adhere to more strict land‐use policies and guidelines, management zoning for areas with different levels of ES risk, and an accurate understanding of ES trade‐offs and synergies for scientific risk management. This study could provide theoretical and technical references for ES risk assessment research and promote scientific ecological risk management.

Onshore power supply–trends in research studies

Restrictive regulations introduced by the European Parliament and the United Nations have forced the seaport authorities to reach net zero gas emissions by 2030. An important source of pollution emitted in ports involves exhaust gas emissions from ships powered by ship engines while they are berthed in seaports. One of the ways to reduce the level of pollution and nuisance caused by ship engines is to equip ships with Onshore Power Supply (OPS). Unfortunately, still few ports can boast this type of systems at their quays. There are many publications devoted to the analysis of this phenomenon in the technical and engineering terms, but a significant part also concerns the economic, financial, logistic and organizational aspects. The aim of this research is to identify the directions of development as for research into OPS, to organize the terminology devoted to OPS, and to define scientific disciplines of research in the field of OPS. This research was conducted on the basis of the data mining method using the Scopus, EBSCO and Web of Science databases, applying the multi-stage selection of criteria. The research results may provide an interesting material for scientists to identify the gaps of research regarding OPS.

Xylazine co-occurrence with illicit fentanyl is a growing threat in the Deep South: a retrospective study of decedent data

BackgroundXylazine is a dangerous veterinary sedative found mainly in illicit fentanyl in the Northeast and Midwest. Its role in the Deep South overdose crisis is not well-characterized.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective review of autopsy data in Jefferson County, Alabama to identify trends in xylazine prevalence among people who fatally overdosed from June 2019 through June 2023.Results165 decedents met inclusion criteria. While the first identified xylazine-associated overdose was in June 2019, xylazine has become consistently prevalent since January 2021. All cases of xylazine-associated fatal overdoses were accompanied by fentanyl, and most (75.4%) involved poly-drug stimulant use. The average age was 42.2, and most decedents were white (58.8%) and male (68.5%). Overall, 18.2% of people were unhoused at the time of death.DiscussionXylazine is prevalent in the Deep South. Efforts to promote harm reduction, publicly viewable drug supply trends, and legalization of drug checking and syringe service programs should be prioritized.

A Comprehensive Review on the Power Supply System of Hydrogen Production Electrolyzers for Future Integrated Energy Systems

Hydrogen energy is regarded as an ideal solution for addressing climate change issues and an indispensable part of future integrated energy systems. The most environmentally friendly hydrogen production method remains water electrolysis, where the electrolyzer constructs the physical interface between electrical energy and hydrogen energy. However, few articles have reviewed the electrolyzer from the perspective of power supply topology and control. This review is the first to discuss the positioning of the electrolyzer power supply in the future integrated energy system. The electrolyzer is reviewed from the perspective of the electrolysis method, the market, and the electrical interface modelling, reflecting the requirement of the electrolyzer for power supply. Various electrolyzer power supply topologies are studied and reviewed. Although the most widely used topology in the current hydrogen production industry is still single-stage AC/DC, the interleaved parallel LLC topology constructed by wideband gap power semiconductors and controlled by the zero-voltage switching algorithm has broad application prospects because of its advantages of high power density, high efficiency, fault tolerance, and low current ripple. Taking into account the development trend of the EL power supply, a hierarchical control framework is proposed as it can manage the operation performance of the power supply itself, the electrolyzer, the hydrogen energy domain, and the entire integrated energy system.

Future Blood Debt: Projecting Blood Supply and Demand of Korea Based on Subnational Population Projections (2021-2050).

South Korea faces a critical challenge with its rapidly declining fertility rates and an increasingly aging population, which significantly impacts the country's blood supply and demand. Despite these nationwide trends, regional disparities in blood supply and demand have not been thoroughly studied. This research utilized blood donation data from the Korean Red Cross and blood transfusion data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. We analyzed these datasets in conjunction with regional population projections to simulate blood supply and demand from 2021 to 2050 across South Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of various factors, including the number of donors, age eligibility criteria for donations, frequency of donations, and blood discard rates. Our projections indicate a decreasing trend in blood supply, from 2.6 million units in 2021 to 1.4 million units by 2050, while demand is expected to peak at 5.1 million units by 2045 before declining. Metropolitan areas, particularly Gyeonggi Province, are projected to experience the most severe shortages. Sensitivity analyses suggest that increasing the donation frequency of existing donors and relaxing age eligibility criteria are more effective strategies in addressing these imbalances than merely increasing the number of new donors. Blood discard rates showed minimal impact on the overall blood shortage. The findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted strategies to mitigate national and regional blood supply shortages in South Korea. Encouraging frequent donations from experienced donors and broadening eligibility criteria are critical steps toward stabilizing the blood supply amidst demographic shifts. These strategies must be prioritized to address the impending regional disparities in blood availability.

Assessment and Outlook on Labor Supply Trends in Korea: Labor Force Participation of the Elderly Population

Assessment and Outlook on Labor Supply Trends in Korea: Labor Force Participation of the Elderly Population

Assessment and Outlook on Labor Supply Trends In Korea: Labor Force Participation of the Elderly Population

Assessment and Outlook on Labor Supply Trends In Korea: Labor Force Participation of the Elderly Population

The Sectoral Impact of the Rice Tariffication Law on Filipino Rice Supply: A Time-Series Analysis

The Rice Tariffication Law was implemented in March 2019 to address rice shortage by replacing quantitative restrictions with import tariffs. Prior studies have evaluated its various impacts, but no study has analyzed post-RTL seasonal rice supply data by sector. This study is a quasi-experimental, interrupted time-series analysis using ARIMA models applied to 2011-2020 data. The control group consists of observed values and the experimental group consists of ARIMA-forecasted values post-RTL. Research findings indicate that RTL does not affect rice supply trends in the overall rice supply and household sector. Conversely, in the commercial and NFA sectors, RTL has been observed to significantly influence rice supply trends. This reveals the ways in which RTL altered the dynamics within these sectors, thereby impacting their respective supply trends by influencing local production, buffer stock, and importation. The actualization of RCEF, buffer stock increase, and the development of plans to enhance agricultural sustainability are recommended.

The role of stakeholders in development of agro tourism in post-transition countries

Agro tourism could have a positive impact on the mitigation of depopulation in most rural areas of post-transition countries. Arguments for promoting the development of agro tourism include changing negative demographic trends in such areas and year-round supply and demand characteristics. As the main stakeholders in agro tourism are rural and family farms, the development of this selective form of tourism has a direct positive impact on the growth of the living standards of the local population in rural areas. The study focused on the role of stakeholders in the development of agro tourism in post-transition societies. The research was conducted by comparing the experiences of the Republic of Croatia and Montenegro. Croatia is strategically oriented towards tourism, but the share of tourism in GDP is obviously high and the share of agro tourism negligible. Montenegro has good experience with the development of agro tourism. Austria’s experience with agro tourism development was analysed as a control variable. The aim of the study is to show the actual influence of the main stakeholders on the development of agro tourism in the post-transition countries.