Abstract
The Rice Tariffication Law was implemented in March 2019 to address rice shortage by replacing quantitative restrictions with import tariffs. Prior studies have evaluated its various impacts, but no study has analyzed post-RTL seasonal rice supply data by sector. This study is a quasi-experimental, interrupted time-series analysis using ARIMA models applied to 2011-2020 data. The control group consists of observed values and the experimental group consists of ARIMA-forecasted values post-RTL. Research findings indicate that RTL does not affect rice supply trends in the overall rice supply and household sector. Conversely, in the commercial and NFA sectors, RTL has been observed to significantly influence rice supply trends. This reveals the ways in which RTL altered the dynamics within these sectors, thereby impacting their respective supply trends by influencing local production, buffer stock, and importation. The actualization of RCEF, buffer stock increase, and the development of plans to enhance agricultural sustainability are recommended.
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