Abstract
By coupling dynamic material flow analysis and econometric models, the effects of technical advance on cobalt supply in the whole industrial chains are explored. Then, its supply trends are investigated at the global and national levels. The results show that: (1) the impact of technical advance on cobalt supply in the mining stage is inverted U-shape, while in the other stages, they are linear promotions. (2) Technical advance could increase global primary supply by up to 10 % from current production capacity. By 2030, secondary and total supplies will reach 79 kt and 251 kt or even more. (3) Refined cobalt supply share of China is expected to be 76 % by 2030. The European Union will produce the largest secondary supply, followed by China, the United States and Japan. (4) With the simultaneous development of technologies in each stage, supply-demand balance could be realized under some ideal scenarios. The above findings help intuitively recognize the roles of technical advance and strengthen the determination to do it.
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