Global Warming Trend Research Articles

WAYS TO IMPROVE THE METHOD OF CALCULATING THE VOLUME OF RUNOFF FROM THE SOIL SURFACE

The article considers the problem, which is becoming increasingly important in the environmental and economic spheres. It is noted that due to the trend of global warming, the dangers of floods and their harmful environmental and economic consequences are becoming worldwide importance. In this regard, we need to solve the problem in the field of strategies for timely response to floods, mitigating their consequences and preservation of natural floodplain resources. The article analyzes additional factors influencing floods in Western Ukraine through climatic changes, unauthorized scarring forests, anthropogenic changes. To solve the problem of flood forecasting and reducing their consequences, a systematic approach is proposed, which takes into account the environmental risks of floods. A scenario approach is used, which reproduces the tree of possible developments during and after the flood. Arrays of initial input emergencies, probable emergencies and probable consequences are formed. Based on the considered scenarios, strategies and risks management options are constructed. Meaning the scenario approach, the article shows that the normative calculation of the volume of the drain from the soil surface to the reservoir does not take into account some important factors such as soil filtration capacity, surface slope and other parameters. For a more accurate determination of the number of drains it is recommended to improve the estimated formula. To do this, it is proposed to use a double integral over time and mass of water on the surface, which takes into account the mass of water arrival and water outflow, which in turn take into account the properties of the study area, evaporation and the ability of the soil to retain moisture, follow the balance sheet. In this case, conclusions are made to develop a set of measures to reduce the risk of floods and malicious effects.

Fast Urbanization Causes Overestimation of Global Warming Trends

The contribution of urbanization to the global warming tendency has not been evaluated accurately. We propose that comparing the temperature records of relocated new meteorological stations to those of old meteorological stations is a better method for evaluating the urbanization contribution than the current methods. On the Web of Science and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure, previous studies on temperature records of paired old and relocated new meteorological stations were searched and selected. As a result, we gathered temperature data from 57 paired stations and discovered that the old stations' temperature was 0.66 ℃ higher than the new stations' (-0.90 to 1.63 ℃). The urbanization process may be responsible for more than 60% of the current temperature rise trends. Furthermore, there are strong correlations between periods of global warming and regional rapid urbanization, implying that rapid urbanization causes overestimation of global warming trends. Finally, the IPCC's assessment of global warming should be revised in the next report based on paired urban and rural temperature datasets from globally relocated meteorological stations.

Dataset of daily near-surface air temperature in China from 1979 to 2018

Abstract. Near-surface air temperature (Ta) is an important physical parameter that reflects climate change. Many methods are used to obtain the daily maximum (Tmax⁡), minimum (Tmin⁡), and average (Tavg) temperature, but are affected by multiple factors. To obtain daily Ta data (Tmax⁡, Tmin⁡, and Tavg) with high spatio-temporal resolution in China, we fully analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of various existing data. Different Ta reconstruction models were constructed for different weather conditions, and the data accuracy was improved by building correction equations for different regions. Finally, a dataset of daily temperature (Tmax⁡, Tmin⁡, and Tavg) in China from 1979 to 2018 was obtained with a spatial resolution of 0.1∘. For Tmax⁡, validation using in situ data shows that the root mean square error (RMSE) ranges from 0.86 to 1.78∘, the mean absolute error (MAE) varies from 0.63 to 1.40∘, and the Pearson coefficient (R2) ranges from 0.96 to 0.99. For Tmin⁡, the RMSE ranges from 0.78 to 2.09∘, the MAE varies from 0.58 to 1.61∘, and the R2 ranges from 0.95 to 0.99. For Tavg, the RMSE ranges from 0.35 to 1.00∘, the MAE varies from 0.27 to 0.68 ∘, and the R2 ranges from 0.99 to 1.00. Furthermore, various evaluation indicators were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation trends of Ta, and the Tavg increase was more than 0.03 ∘C yr−1, which is consistent with the general global warming trend. In summary, this dataset has high spatial resolution and high accuracy, which compensates for the temperature values (Tmax⁡, Tmin⁡, and Tavg) previously missing at high spatial resolution and provides key parameters for the study of climate change, especially high-temperature drought and low-temperature chilling damage. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5502275 (Fang et al., 2021a).

Moisture history in the Northeast China since 1750s reconstructed from tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope

Northeast China has suffered many serious droughts, with loss of agricultural production. A lack of long-term monitoring data has hindered our understanding of drought characteristics and mechanisms. The moisture-related history of the region was investigated by constructing a tree-ring cellulose δ18O chronology for the period 1752–2015 using samples collected from four Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) trees in eastern NE China. Results indicate that tree-ring δ18O values are significantly correlated with summer (June–September) precipitation, relative humidity, and drought severity. The tree-ring δ18O chronology accounts for 50.7% of the observed variance in summer relative humidity and was used to reconstruct regional relative humidity levels back to 1752. Compared with previous reconstructions of drought-related changes in NE China, the reconstruction reveals more high- and low-frequency variability, with two drought periods during the 1750s–1820s and 1960s–2015, and a wet period during 1820–1960. Regional drying trends is mainly influenced by a weakened East Asia summer monsoon (EASM), with both drought periods being concurrent with high temperatures and a weak EASM. Together with the global warming trend, the increasing temperature and associated precipitation reduction in NE China indicates increasing likelihood of drought for the region in future.

U.S. fires became larger, more frequent, and more widespread in the 2000s.

Recent fires have fueled concerns that regional and global warming trends are leading to more extreme burning. We found compelling evidence that average fire events in regions of the United States are up to four times the size, triple the frequency, and more widespread in the 2000s than in the previous two decades. Moreover, the most extreme fires are also larger, more common, and more likely to co-occur with other extreme fires. This documented shift in burning patterns across most of the country aligns with the palpable change in fire dynamics noted by the media, public, and fire-fighting officials.

Assessing Nummulites geochemistry as a proxy for early Eocene palaeotemperature evolution in the North Sea Basin

The early Eocene climate is characterized by gradual warming towards the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Environmental changes related to this global long-term warming trend are recorded in Ypresian marine sediments in Belgium. The test geochemistry of Nummulites enables the reconstruction of palaeotemperature changes based on the incorporation of Mg into the calcite test without complications connected to other proxies. Early Eocene Nummulites occur in high abundances in the inner shelf deposits of the southern edge of the North Sea Basin, providing multiple sample locations. Because this palaeotemperature proxy has only recently been developed, we investigated a methodological approach. We assessed the relationship between test geochemistry and (1) preservation state, (2) test size and (3) a cleaning procedure to evaluate the use of this new proxy. We propose a simplified cleaning procedure (ethanol–methanol–peroxide) for well-preserved specimens within the smaller size range (radius <3 mm). Using this methodology, a long-term palaeotemperature increase of 7°C is reconstructed from the pre-EECO (±54 Ma) to the EECO (±51 Ma), with a mean EECO palaeotemperature of 28°C. This corresponds with previous studies, strengthening the use of Nummulites geochemistry as a proxy for reconstructing long-term climate change in the Southern North Sea Basin. Supplementary material: All geochemical data are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5811457

Historical Trends and Projections of Snow Cover over the High Arctic: A Review

Snow is the dominant form of precipitation and the main cryospheric feature of the High Arctic (HA) covering its land, sea, lake and river ice surfaces for a large part of the year. The snow cover in the HA is involved in climate feedbacks that influence the global climate system, and greatly impacts the hydrology and the ecosystems of the coldest biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. The ongoing global warming trend and its polar amplification is threatening the long-term stability of the snow cover in the HA. This study presents an extensive review of the literature on observed and projected snow cover conditions in the High Arctic region. Several key snow cover metrics were reviewed, including snowfall, snow cover duration (SCD), snow cover extent (SCE), snow depth (SD), and snow water equivalent (SWE) since 1930 based on in situ, remote sensing and simulations results. Changes in snow metrics were reviewed and outlined from the continental to the local scale. The reviewed snow metrics displayed different sensitivities to past and projected changes in precipitation and air temperature. Despite the overall increase in snowfall, both observed from historical data and projected into the future, some snow cover metrics displayed consistent decreasing trends, with SCE and SCD showing the most widespread and steady decreases over the last century in the HA, particularly in the spring and summer seasons. However, snow depth and, in some regions SWE, have mostly increased; nevertheless, both SD and SWE are projected to decrease by 2030. By the end of the century, the extent of Arctic spring snow cover will be considerably less than today (10–35%). Model simulations project higher winter snowfall, higher or lower maximum snow depth depending on regions, and a shortened snow season by the end of the century. The spatial pattern of snow metrics trends for both historical and projected climates exhibit noticeable asymmetry among the different HA sectors, with the largest observed and anticipated changes occurring over the Canadian HA.

COVID-19, Digital Tracking Control and Chinese Cosmotechnology

The COVID-19 pandemic has opened our eyes to numerous global problems that can only be solved on a global scale. Especially in light of the good performance of the Sinic region in containing and eliminating the coronavirus, the importance of intercultural dialogue between East and West became even more evident. In this context, this paper explores the role of digital technologies and the underlying ontology of digital objects in China as well as in the wider Sinic region. Indeed, the third millennium, which has just begun and will witness the accelerating trends of global warming and most likely the deepening of the gap between rich and poor, numerous wars, and new pandemics, will certainly be marked by the development of digital technologies. Therefore, the paper investigates the specific features of traditional Sinic perceptions of technology as such, as well as their ideational underpinnings, which certainly influence specific Sinic perceptions of digital objects. This will, I hope, provide us with a better understanding of the cultural conditionality of differences and commonalities in the global processes of digitalization and their ontological underpinnings, so that we can pay more attention to both the dangers and the opportunities that cross-cultural interactions in this area can offer us.

Observed Changes in Agroclimate Metrics Relevant for Specialty Crop Production in California

Every decade, a suite of standardized climatological metrics known as climate normals are updated, providing averages of temperature and precipitation data over the previous 30-year period. Although some of these climate normals are directly applicable to agricultural producers, there are additional agroclimate metrics calculated from meteorological data that provide physiologically relevant information for on-farm management decisions. In this study, we identified a suite of energy-based agroclimate metrics and calculated changes over the two most recent normal periods (1981–2010 and 1991–2020), focusing on specialty crop production regions in California. Observed changes in agroclimate metrics were largely consistent with broader global warming trends. While most metrics showed small changes between the two periods, during the 1991–2020 period, the last spring freeze occurred ~5 days earlier as compared to the 1981–2010 period, contributing to a >6 day longer frost-free period in the Sacramento and Salinas Valleys; likewise an additional 6.4 tropical nights (Tn > 20 °C) occurred in the Coachella Valley during the 1991–2020 period. A complementary trend analysis of the agroclimate metrics over the 1981–2020 period showed significant increases in growing degree days across all agricultural regions, while significant increases in heat exposure were found for the Salinas and Imperial Valleys and over the Central Coast region. Moreover, summer reference evapotranspiration increased approximately 40 mm in California’s Central Valley during 1981–2020, with implications for agricultural water resources. Quantifying the shifts in these agroclimate metrics between the two most recent 30-year normal periods and the accompanying 40-year trends provides context for understanding and communicating around changing climatic baselines and underscores the need for adaptation to meet the challenge that climate change poses to agriculture both in the future and in the present.

The role of wildfires in a sustainable future

Climate change and global warming have led to many risks and changes for the Earth, including the increase in natural fires, floods, air pollution, unusual seasons, etc. The increase in the trend of global warming may bring many countries underwater. For instance, the populous Asian nation of Bangladesh is most vulnerable to rising sea levels. It is estimated that a rise of just one meter in sea level is enough to submerge 30,000 square kilometres of the coastal areas of Bangladesh and displace 15 million people. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the effects of different factors on global warming and take possible actions to reduce the damage. Among various factors, natural fires are believed to be responsible for up to 20% of greenhouse gas production in the world. The source of 80% of fresh water in the United States is believed to be forest lands, which means the effect of natural fires can be disastrous not only for drinking water but also for aquatic habitats. In this paper, we present a survey on the impacts of forest fires on global warming.

Evaluation of environmental and economic efficiency of transportation in China based on SBM model

In recent years, the rapid development of transportation industry brings economic benefits, at the same time, the problem of environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious. The emission of CO2 intensifies the trend of global warming. How to measure the development of environment and economy is a huge challenge for us. This paper proposes a data envelopment analysis (DEA) method based on slacks-based measure (SBM) to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of the transportation industry from 2015 to 2017. According to the economic region, 30 provinces in China are divided into northeast, east, central and western regions for efficiency analysis. The model can determine the low efficiency decision units and finally put forward improvement suggestions for the low efficiency areas.

Сучасна динаміка сніголавинних процесів на території гірського масиву Полонина Боржава

The article analyzes the current dynamics of avalanche processes in the territory of the Polonyna Borzhava mountain massif, as one of the most avalanche-prone zones of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The studied area is visited by thousands of tourists every year, especially in winter, as ski tourism is quite well developed here. Accordingly, hundreds of tourists face a direct threat to life and health - avalanches. Therefore, first of all, it is worth showing the current dynamics of avalanche processes on Polonyna Borzhava from the point of view of rational management of recreation and tourism. Almost every year, people, both professionals and beginners, are killed or injured in avalanches on Polonyna Borzhava. Knowledge the basics of handling during avalanche danger, obtaining information about the onset of such periods and evaluating changes in the multi-year dynamics of avalanches can minimize risky situations in the mountains. An analysis of avalanche seasons in Polonyna Borzhava during 2011-2020, based on the materials of the Plai avalanche station, the Transcarpathian Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and the Main Department of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Transcarpathian Region, showed that the most avalanche-dangerous month is February, when 40,7% of all avalanches occurred. During the studied period, the most avalanches with a volume of 1001-5000 m3 occurred, which do not cause significant damage to the environment, but can lead to the death or injury of people and animals. The number of avalanches varies greatly from year to year, because in the short term it directly depends on weather conditions (amount of solid precipitation, air temperature of the cold half of the year, wind activity, etc.), and in the long term it depends on climatic changes. During 2011-2020, the most avalanches occurred in 2012 (25), and in 2014 and 2020 they were not recorded at all. Clarification of the average multi-year dates for the formation of stable snow cover showed that it falls on November 21. Taking into account the trends of global warming, shifting of seasons, greater transition of precipitation to the liquid phase, etc., avalanches in Polonyna Borzhava will become a rarer phenomenon with very large annual variability in number and volume. The work uses descriptive and literary research methods, as well as elementary means of mathematical statistics.

Variations in Summer Extreme High-Temperature Events over Northern Asia and the Possible Mechanisms

AbstractIn this study, interannual and interdecadal variations in the extreme high-temperature event (EHE) frequency over northern Asia (NA) and the associated possible mechanisms are explored. On an interannual time scale, the first two empirical orthogonal function modes of the NA EHE frequency exhibit a meridional dipole pattern (EOF1) and diagonal tripolar pattern (EOF2), respectively. The higher NA EHE frequency is related to anomalous local highs, reduced mid- to low clouds, and more solar radiation. The warmer ground further heats the overlying atmosphere through longwave radiation and sensible heat. The warm temperature advection in the lower troposphere and the drier soil conditions also favor higher EHE frequency. Further analysis reveals that the EOF1 mode is related to the Polar–Eurasian teleconnection pattern (POL), while the EOF2 mode is associated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific–Japan/East Asia–Pacific pattern (PJ/EAP). The fitted EHE frequency based on the atmospheric factors (POL, NAO, and PJ/EAP) can explain the interannual variation in the regionally averaged EHE frequency by 33.8%. Furthermore, three anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns over the North Atlantic–Mediterranean Sea region and around the Maritime Continent are associated with the two EHE modes by intensifying the pronounced atmospheric teleconnections. Analysis on the simulation of five models in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiment further confirms the impact of the pronounced SST patterns on the POL, NAO and PJ/EAP. In addition, NA EHE frequency experienced a significant interdecadal increase around the mid-1990s, which could be associated with the phase shift of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and long-term global warming trend.

Soil pockets phosphatization and chemical weathering of sites affected by flying birds of Maritime Antarctica.

The majority of ornithogenic soils studied in Antarctica focus on the influence of penguins, wherever little reports evaluated the influence of flying birds on soil genesis. This study aimed to characterize the morphologic, chemic, physic, mineralogic, and micromorphologic ornithogenic soil pockets influenced by flying birds in Snow Island, Maritime Antarctica. Fifteen soil pockets were selected, described, sampled and analyzed, these sites constitute the main areas with intense long-term terrestrial biological activity in Snow Island. In order to investigate the impact of phosphatization, we compared the soil pockets with the surrounding soils and soils affected by penguins. Zone of phosphatization have a high concentration of P, K, and Ca. The XRD patterns for the clay fraction of ornithogenic soils show that phosphate minerals are the main crystalline phases (leucophosphite, minyulite, fluorapatite, and apatite). We show that even under typical periglacial conditions, sites influenced by flying birds present active chemical weathering processes. The phosphatization release exchangeable bases and accelerate mineralogical and micromorphological transformations in soils. Under the current global warming trend and expected sea-level rise, the ornithogenic environments are susceptible to accelerated erosion rates and a great part of these hotspots may be lost for the open sea.

The Evaluation of Temporal and Spatial Trends of Global Warming and Extreme Ocean Surface Temperatures: A Case Study of Canada

In recent years, extreme weather has frequently occurred worldwide and caused significant disasters, including large-scale forest fires, rare heat waves, heavy rains, floods, and tornadoes. Those have caused unprecedented losses of human lives and property in some countries, affecting the livelihoods of many people. Climate change and natural disasters are the two hotspots of scientific research today, and there is a certain degree of correlation between the two. Although countries worldwide have long known about climate change and its threats to human existence and have been discussing countermeasures, they have still not been able to carry out concerted and practical actions. The study takes Canada as an example, and selects six representative provinces to evaluate the temporal change characteristics of extreme temperature at different sites. We use MATLAB software to perform multiple linear regression, linear fitting methods, and Pearson correlation analysis to analyze spatial changes and time-space trends. The method studies the relationship between the emergence of extreme weather and climate change and uses the evolutionary game theory to explore whether there is any contradiction between global warming and extreme local cold. The study found: (i) The maximum temperature of most provinces in Canada will be constantly higher, and the minimum temperature will be lower. Generally speaking, the average temperature of each year is slowly decreasing. (ii) The average temperature data of British Columbia (Eastern Pacific) and Quebec (West Atlantic) show that ocean temperature has a specific effect on land temperature in surrounding areas. (iii) Pearson correlation analysis shows that the emergence of extreme weather is closely related to climate change. (iv) The evolution path of the two-party game shows that global warming and the occurrence of extreme local cold are not contradictory. Under the conditions, there is a certain degree of synchronization between the two, interacting and influencing each other.

New discoveries of Geometridae (Lepidoptera) from the extreme southwest of the Russian Far East – result of climate impact?

New founds of 4 species of East Asian Geometridae: Megabiston plumosaria (Leech, 1891), Photoscotosia lucicolens (Butler, 1878), Callabraxas fabiolaria (Oberthür, 1884), and Dysstroma cinereata (Moore, 1867) in the extreme southwest of the Russian Far East are presented and discussed due to the actual distribution and its current trends. From them Ph. lucicolens is recorded from Russia and China (Jilin) for the first time. Identity of specimens of "Photoscotosia atrostrigata" and "Dysstroma cinereata" in Barcode of Life Database is revised to Ph. lucicolens and Paradysstroma corussaria (Oberthür, 1880) respectively. These founds probably indicate northern expansion of ranges of geometrid moth in accordance with the current climatic trend of global warming. Potential harmfulness of M. plumosaria in RFE is assumed. The validity of Dysstroma cinerea cesa Koçak & Kemal, 2001, as a substitute name for Dysstroma cinereata japonica (Heydemann, 1929) is substantiated.

A full physics algorithm to retrieve nighttime sea surface temperature with IASI: Toward an independent homogeneous long time-series for climate studies

A fully physically-based algorithm is presented and used to retrieve nighttime sea-surface (skin) temperatures (SSTs) from spectra recorded by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI). The main advantage of the proposed approach, based on radiative transfer calculations, is to provide a dataset totally independent of any in-situ measurement or model. The SSTs are retrieved at the IASI spot resolution (clear sky) for the three Metop platforms, today leading to a continuous record over more than 13 years, which is planned to be extended for at least another decade. Five atmospheric transparency windows centered at 3.8, 4.0, 4.7, 9.0 and 11 μm have been used in the retrieval. Results are compared with in-situ temperatures provided by the buoys network as well as with other satellite datasets. This first analysis enables to draw the following three main conclusions. First, we confirm the interest of using short wavelengths around 4 μm which enables accurate estimates characterized by a reduced bias with respect to those around 9 and 11 μm, thanks to significantly weaker sensitivities to errors in the modeling of the water vapor contribution to the atmospheric absorption and emission. Second, we show that the observed dependences of the skin-depth temperature difference on various observed-scene parameters (wind speed, air-sea temperature difference, humidity) are consistent with predictions of theoretical and empirical models, as well as with those from other SST products. Finally, the overall averaged bias between our retrieved values converted to depth temperatures and those provided by in-situ measurements is −0.04 K (median: −0.024 K), with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.38 K (Robust SD = 0.25 K). The bias is thus well below the 0.1 K required for a SST product usable for climate studies and extremely stable over more than a decade. Then, we investigate the consistency between the three generations of IASI on-board Metop-A, -B, and -C over their overlap periods (2013–2020 for Metop-A and Metop-B, and 2019–2020 for Metop-C) by comparing the associated retrieved monthly-averaged SSTs over 1°x1° grids. The mean differences obtained are lower than 0.02 K, with a SD of 0.3 K consistent with the natural variation of the SST within a month. This demonstrates the high stability of the SSTs retrieved using spectra recorded from the IASI suite and opens the possibility to generate long time series for climate studies. This is tested in a preliminary investigation of the SST anomalies between 2008 and 2020, with the successful detection of short-term (El Niño and La Niña) changes as well as of a global warming trend of about +0.3 K/decade quantitatively consistent with other observations.

Temporal characteristics of urban heat island and its response to heat waves and energy consumption in the mountainous Chongqing, China

In this study, the time series of temperature in Chongqing, China, from 1979 to 2018 was statistically analyzed, and both the interdecadal and seasonal variation characteristics of urban heat island intensity (UHII) were studied. The results show that the temperature in Chongqing has risen significantly in the past 40 years and that the temperature of the Chongqing urban area is approximately 1.6 times higher than the global warming trend. During the study period, the annual average UHII at urban and rural stations increased significantly at a rate of +1.3 °C/century. The seasonal variation in the nighttime UHII was higher in summer, while the seasonal variation in the daytime UHII was higher in winter. In addition, the annual average UHII was found to be related to the heat wave (HW) days, cooling degree days (CDD), and heating degree days (HDD). With an increase of 1 °C in the UHII, the HW days in urban area increased by approximately 10 d, the average difference of the CDD increased by approximately 72 °C•d, and the average difference of the HDD decreased by approximately 86 °C•d.

Planktonic foraminiferal quantitative analysis across the Campanian/Maastrichtian boundary at the Pondicherry area, Cauvery Basin, Southern India

The late Campanian/Maastrichtian succession exposed at Pondicherry area affords one of the finest exposed marine sections in Cauvery Basin is examined for their foraminiferal contents. The biostratigraphic distribution of 71 species of planktonic foraminifera has been used to diagnose 11 planktonic zones and subzones and correlated to the worldwide bioevent. During the late Campanian, a great transgression event occurred associated with the global warming (CF8b zone) trend indicated by large double‐keeled foraminifera (Globotruncana aegyptiaca Nakkady) of oligotrophic conditions. The latest zone CF4 records a sharp decrease in Planktonic/Benthic (P/B), globotruncanids, rugoglobigerinids and heterohelicids implying a fall of sea level.

Flood Hazard Mapping of Rivers in Snow- and Glacier-Fed Basins of Different Hydrological Regimes Using a Hydrodynamic Model under RCP Scenarios

The global warming trends have accelerated snow and glacier melt in mountainous river basins, which has increased the probability of glacial outburst flooding. Recurrent flood events are a challenge for the developing economy of Pakistan in terms of damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. Flood hazard maps can be used for future flood damage assessment, preparedness, and mitigation. The current study focused on the assessment and mapping of flood-prone areas in small settlements of the major snow- and glacier-fed river basins situated in Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) under future climate scenarios. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was used for flood simulation and mapping. The ALOS 12.5 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to extract river geometry, and the flows generated in these river basins using RCP scenarios were used as the inflow boundary condition. Severe flooding would inundate an area of ~66%, ~86%, ~37% (under mid-21st century), and an area of ~72%, ~93%, ~59% (under late 21st century RCP 8.5 scenario) in the Chitral, Hunza, and Astore river basins, respectively. There is an urgent need to develop a robust flood mitigation plan for the frequent floods occurring in northern Pakistan.