Disaster Trends Research Articles

Water-related disasters: A review and commentary

The purpose of this paper is to explore the nature of water-related disasters, look at the trends in water-related disasters, categorize water-related disasters in several dimensions, provide insights on the impacts of such disasters and discuss the predictability of disasters. Disasters may be succinctly defined as natural or human events, usually unexpected, that result in significant impacts in terms of a variety of metrics. Metrics for evaluating the impacts of disasters include economic damage, environmental damage, fatalities, reconstruction cost, aesthetic damage, disruption of normal activities, destruction of irreplaceable objects, and long-term or permanent loss of species. Disasters may be categorized in terms of causes (natural events, human induced, or a combination). Water-related disasters may be further categorized as floods, storms, waves, slides, droughts, epidemics, contamination and climate change. The temporal and spatial scale of water-related disasters vary by many orders of magnitude ranging from seconds to centuries and from a few square kilometers to the entire earth.

Impacts of Natural Disasters on Regional Economies: An Overview

The main purpose of this study addresses the vulnerability of the subgrouped regions to natural disasters and investigates trends in natural disasters and their impacts for the years 2000–2009 in various regions globally. Over the past two decades, the majority of economic loss, human suffering, and loss of life due to natural disasters has been reported in the Asia–Pacific region, with more than 89% of the total affected population and economic loss (42%) located in that region. Outside the Asia–Pacific region, Europe was subjected to more extreme temperatures, floods, and storms, while Africa experienced more epidemics, floods, and droughts. Tourism is sensitive to safety considerations, a phenomenon that varies in its effects across countries. It seems that the poorer and poorest countries suffer the greatest damage expressed as a fraction of gross domestic product (GDP). The overall magnitude of the economic damage is relatively large with respect to the GDP of each country in the affected region cumulatively.

Thesis title: Influence of integrating disaster risk reduction within post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction on socio-economic development

The trend of natural disasters has shown an unprecedented scale of increase during the last few decades, causing massive human and property losses. This has resulted in an increase of reconstruction, in both the housing and infrastructure sectors. Although, reconstruction is presumed to be a window of opportunity created by tragic situation following a disaster and it is also a tool to help reduce future disaster risks through particular attention to various vulnerabilities, the developing countries would not reportedly use such opportunities during reconstruction. In Sri Lanka, the initial restoration work of infrastructure was completed within a relatively short period of time following the tsunami 2004 disaster. However, literature asserts that issues of varying vulnerabilities, people's needs and access to infrastructures are not well articulated in post-tsunami infrastructure reconstruction plans in Sri Lanka. Therefore, whether recovery is used to address disparities in quality and access of infrastructure and services to communities and to what extent infrastructure reconstruction would extend towards and deal with issues related to infrastructure and services needs in poorer communities, reconcile environmental- development complexities and link development to future disaster risk management, is doubtable. On the other hand, reduction of disaster risk has become a 'must due' with regards to the increased natural disaster losses. Whilst the need for reduction and mitigation of natural disaster risks has been widely recognised all over the world, achieving this ambitious goal has proven difficult in Sri Lanka. The concept of disaster risk reduction is referred not only to physical/technical strategies but it includes a wider array of strategies that involve solving much more complex political, social, economic and environmental challenges. Disaster risk reduction initiatives are generally considered to result in many development concerns. Moreover, literature suggests that development and disaster management are both aimed at vulnerability reduction. It is further suggested that reconstruction must take into account the implications in reducing disaster vulnerability in the long-term. Therefore, exploring the influence of integrating disaster risk reduction strategies within post-disaster reconstruction projects in overcoming the problems mentioned above will be a more useful approach, and this has become the main focus of this research. The research developed a conceptual framework through literature reviews and pilot interviews. This study adopts the social constructionism view in terms of its philosophical assumptions and the case study approach was selected as the main research approach. Accordingly, a multiple case study approach was used and data was collected through semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire survey conducted within two case studies, semi-structured interviews conducted among policy makers and experts in the field of infrastructure construction/reconstruction and disaster management in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. While content analysis and cognitive mapping techniques were used for the analysis of the semi-structured interviews, the descriptive statistics technique was used for the analysis of the questionnaire survey. Whilst revealing the different levels at which the concept of disaster risk reduction can be applied within the infrastructure reconstruction sector, the study identifies the most influential factors which lead to infrastructure reconstruction projects and communities increasing vulnerability. As its main finding, the study reveals the ways in which integration of disaster risk reduction strategies within post-disaster reconstruction projects could contribute on the socio-economic development process. This was revealed by identifying how integration of disaster risk reduction strategies within infrastructure reconstruction projects could avoid those factors which lead to such vulnerabilities. Moreover, the study reveals the gap between incorporating the concept of disaster risk reduction within the national and intermediate-organisational level policies (protocols) and the actual practice of disaster risk reduction at the infrastructure reconstruction project level.

Study on regional stratagem for coal mine disasters control and prevention in China

The regional strategy study was aimed at coal mine disaster control and prevention, which deepens and enriches the macro-strategy of coal mine disaster control and prevention, and provides an important support for the rapid and healthy development of the regional coal industry. The country was divided into 4 regions: Northeast, North, South and Xinqing. In view of the regional status of coal mine disasters, the regulation and development trend of regional coal mine disasters were analyzed, the outstanding problems and key factors were identified, and the general thoughts on regional coal mine disaster control and prevention were put forward.

An Analysis on Disaster Trend in Korea - Focused on Ulsan -

An Analysis on Disaster Trend in Korea - Focused on Ulsan -

Trends in disasters in Spain and their impact on public health: 1950–2005

During the decade 1994–2005 an average of 570 disasters affecting 260 million people with 67 000 deaths, occurred worldwide each year. Along with the direct impact of mortality and morbidity on the affected populations, the disasters have also resulted in extensive and long-lasting economic damage. For natural disasters alone, the United Nations has estimated that during the 1980s this amounted to approximately 120 000 million dollars annually, a figure that has been growing ever since. The current available evidence on disaster trends shows that their impact on different populations is not only growing but will also be considerably worse in future decades, mainly due to the effects of climate change and complex emergencies. A disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental

Magnification of Flood Disasters and its Relation to Regional Precipitation and Local Human Activities since the 1980s in Xinjiang, Northwestern China

Analyses of flood disasters were conducted using 1950–2001 data on the flood-damaged areas of cropland, the annual number of flood disasters and the direct economic losses in Xinjiang. There is an increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang during the second half of the 20th century, especially since the mid-1980s. Results of a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test on the cropland-flooded index time series revealed an abrupt change in the mid-1980s. The reasons are discussed with respect to changes in annual precipitation and regional human activities, by correlating cropland-flooded area to annual precipitation and three socio-economic parameters (population, cropland area and GDP). The correlation coefficients between the flood-damaged area and the annual precipitation during the periods 1961–1998 and 1987–1998 were substantially higher than during the period of 1961–1986. The correlation coefficients between the flood-damaged area and the three human activity parameters, however, were relatively high for the whole period of 1961–1998, but generally not significant for the 1961–1986 and 1987–1998 periods, separately. These suggest that the occurrence of flood disasters could be mainly induced by local human activities before the mid-1980s, and thereafter mainly by abnormal precipitation in Xinjiang. Meteorological and hydrological records showed that the number of heavy rainfall events and the frequency of rainstorm flood disasters increased since the 1980s. In addition, siltation of reservoirs and loss of flood control structures are partly responsible for the increase of flood-damaged area. These results suggest that the increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang since the middle 1980s could be attributed, at least in part, to an increasing trend in annual precipitation.

Major Natural Catastrophes, 1950–2001

The organizations with most interest in recording worldwide disaster statistics are humani‐tarian agencies such as the International Red Cross (see its annual World Disasters Report) and the large reinsurance companies. The latter are likely to be more meticulous. The data and the brief text below come from an annual report on natural disasters, Topics 2001, issued in March 2002 by Munich Reinsurance Company (more familiarly known as Munich Re), and are reproduced by permission.The trend in economic losses from “great catastrophes” (those requiring interregional or international assistance) over the last 50 years is strongly upward, as shown in the annual statistics and decadal comparisons. Both total losses and insured losses have been rising, the latter more sharply. An implication is that insurance premiums calculated on the basis of historical experience will underestimate future risks.The trend in disasters mainly results from greater exposure to risk through thegrowth of economies and populations rather than from changes in natural hazards themselves. One exception noted in the report is an increasing likelihood of “extreme precipitation” during hurricanes and other windstorms, which may be associated with global warming‐a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. (There is no consensus on whether the frequency or intensity of storms is increasing, but there is evidence that they are getting wetter.) Greater allowance will have to be made for flood damage: Hurricane Andrew in the United States in 1992, causing a record $30 billion in estimated total losses, was a relatively “dry” storm‐ and it missed Miami and New Orleans.Munich Re describes 2001 as an “average year” for natural disasters, with an estimated 25,000 fatalities worldwide and total economic losses of some $36 billion. The four events during the year classed as great catastrophes were an earthquake and landslides in El Salvador in January, killing 845 persons; a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Gujarat in the same month, killing more than 14,000; a hailstorm in Kansas City in April, killing no one but costing the insurance industry $2 billion; and Tropical Storm Allison in June, in which 72 m of rain over 12 hoursjlooded Houston, Texas, causing about $6 billion in total losses‐ “the costliest non‐hurricane of all time.”A recurrent concern of Topics 2001 is the problem of what are termed unidentified loss potentials. These are low‐risk but high‐loss events, exemplified by the 1999 Taiwan earth‐quake, which had an estimated return period of 10,000–100.000 years (or, more exotically, by the remote chance but catastrophic eflect o f a large meteorite impact‐the subject of one section of the report). Other kinds of hard‐to‐calculate loss potentials are related to unanticipated chains of events leading to or following from a disaster. The September terrorist attack on New York's World Trade Center, although unambiguously man‐made and thus not treated in the report, has been a further stimulus to wide‐angled thinking on loss potentials. It demonstrates the broad scope of worst‐case scenarios that now have to be considered by under‐writers who must seek to eliminate “the ‘bare patches’ on the ‘risk landscape.’”The full report is available online at http://www.munichre.com/pdf/topics~2001‐e.pdf

The Increasing Cost of Disasters in Developed Countries: A Challenge to Local Planning and Government

The number and severity of disasters have increased in recent decades. Developed countries are not immune from this trend. Their governments and insurance industries are now being required to cope with rapidly increasing and unanticipated disaster expenditures. In some cases, disaster related claims have increased by more than a full order of magnitude in just a decade. It is important for local planners and governments to understand the general trend of disaster impacts in order to respond to them. To illustrate these trends, the increase in number and financial impact of the last decade of disasters in Canada are reviewed in this article along with some discussion of the impact on government and the insurance industry. In spite of the increasing impact of emergencies and disasters, Canadian local municipal governments have, in general, invested very little in emergency mitigation planning. Many municipalities have no emergency plans at all. Where plans exist, many only address a small range of possible threats, and many do not include any mitigation aspects. Emergency mitigation planning at the local municipal level is critical for effective mitigation and response. We review the general institutional context for local disaster and emergency planning in Canada, concluding that planners have sufficient tools available to begin to address the challenge. Political will and professional interest now is required to make the necessary advances.

Introducing the BSA Disasters Study Group

This paper outlines the background and focus of the Disasters Study Group recently established within the British Sociological Association. It highlights the key issues in disaster studies, and and reinforces the value of research-based disaster management founded on the complementary perspectives of academics and practitioners. Given likely future trends in disasters and their management, the value of continuing discussion, networking and multidisciplinary research is emphasized. Details of relevant journals, organizations and websites concerned with disaster management and research are included.

Trends in accidents, disasters and risk sources in Europe

Most of the adverse impacts on man and/or the environment result from routine human activities such as the process industry, electricity generation and use, transport and agriculture (hazards, i.e. sources of risk). Apart from such essentially technological hazards, possibly resulting in “accidents”, human health and the environment can also be affected by natural hazards, possibly resulting in “disasters”, such as earthquakes or floods. This paper examines current trends in the risk sources and occurrences of four classes of such types of undesired events, entailing largely involuntary risk (e.g. neither car-driving nor smoking): major accidents at fixed installations in the process industry, incidents/accidents at nuclear installations, marine transport and offshore installation accidents, disasters caused by natural hazards and their potential exacerbation by human activities.

Trends and causes of fatalities in South African mines

Leger, J.-P., 1991. Trends and causes of fatalities in South African mines. Safety Science, 14: 169–185. The trends and principal causes of occupational fatalities and disasters (defined as six or more fatalities in one incident) in the South African mining industry are analysed. A miner who spends twenty years working underground faces a one in thirty chance of dying in an occupational accident. The gold mine fatality rate has improved only 33% since 1945, whereas in the coal mines it has declined substantially. Fatality rates in the diamond mines remain at levels similar to those of the 1920s. In other mineral mines the rate has increased since the 1930s. The most important cause of fatalities are falls of ground. In gold mines, rockbursts increase the fatality rate to three times the average at depths below 3000 m. Disasters remain a significant contributor to total fatalities, more disasters having occurred in the 1980s than in any other decade this century. In comparison with the accident experience of the United States, New South Wales, West Germany, India and Britain, countries with substantial coal mining industries, the South African underground colliery fatality rate is worse by factors ranging from two to eight times. Recommendations to ameliorate the high rate of fatalities include publication of improved accident statistics; elucidation of the relationship between injury rates and depth; identification of high risk occupations; special attention to be paid to the poor improvements in fatality rate trends for gold, diamond and other mineral mines; the establishment of an independent (government) deep level mining research institute; and more thorough investigations into disasters and analyses of disaster trends.