Trend Of Sea Level Rise Research Articles

Mechanisms and Modeling of Sea Level Rise in the Context of Global Warming

Sea level rise due to global warming is an important topic in current climate change research. In this study, we explore how complex natural processes triggered by global warming drive sea level change by analyzing climate models. We focus on the main drivers of sea level rise, including ice sheet melting and ocean thermal expansion. In addition, the article discusses in detail how positive feedback mechanisms and negative feedback mechanisms work together to influence the climate change process. In order to predict the future trend of sea level rise, this article models and simulates the global temperature, glacier changes and ocean dynamics based on the General Circulation Model (GCM). Although the model has some uncertainties, especially in cloud feedback and data completeness, it still provides a valuable predictive tool for understanding future sea level changes. The conclusions of this study point to the possibility of accelerated sea level rise as global temperatures continue to rise, with wide-ranging and far-reaching impacts on coastal ecosystems and human societies around the globe.

Regional tidal modeling on the European coast using tide gauges and satellite altimetry

The study investigates sea-level measurements along the coastal area of Europe for the 60-year (1961–2020) time span. Linear and quadratic modeling of tide gauge measurements showed an almost positive rate of trend of sea-level rise (0.09 to 3.6 mm/yr) and low acceleration (−0.05 to 0.40 mm/yr2). A least-squares harmonic estimation tidal modeling was carried out to estimate frequency (cycles per day) for a certain period. The smaller and higher tidal frequencies of these stations indicate their stability in terms of their surface variation. We used the 1993–2020 satellite altimetry data from the nearest grid points of the tide gauge station. The correlation coefficient between observed and satellite altimetry (lowest 0.53 and highest 0.93) varies at each station. This happens because of many factors that can affect the large difference in the sea-level trend between the satellite-derived and tide gauge results. Finally, to implement a global reference system for physical heights, the offshore topographic slope direction and slope range with contour spacing from the sea to the associated coastline were analyzed using bathymetry data. The abrupt change in slope from the coastline toward the sea can be seen toward the east, west, and southeast on the European coast. This is also an important factor that affects the variation of sea level.

Climate change and coastal erosion hotspots in West Africa: The case of Togo

Climate change and coastal erosion hotspots in West Africa: The case of Togo

Modeling Sea Level Rise Using Ensemble Techniques: Impacts on Coastal Adaptation, Freshwater Ecosystems, Agriculture and Infrastructure

Sea level rise (SLR) is a crucial indicator of climate change, primarily driven by greenhouse gas emissions and the subsequent increase in global temperatures. The impact of SLR, however, varies regionally due to factors such as ocean bathymetry, resulting in distinct shifts across different areas compared to the global average. Understanding the complex factors influencing SLR across diverse spatial scales, along with the associated uncertainties, is essential. This study focuses on the East Coast of the United States and Gulf of Mexico, utilizing historical SLR data from 1993 to 2023. To forecast SLR trends from 2024 to 2103, a weighted ensemble model comprising SARIMAX, LSTM, and exponential smoothing models was employed. Additionally, using historical greenhouse gas data, an ensemble of LSTM models was used to predict real-time SLR values, achieving a testing loss of 0.005. Furthermore, conductance and dissolved oxygen (DO) values were assessed for the entire forecasting period, leveraging forecasted SLR trends to evaluate the impacts on marine life, agriculture, and infrastructure.

Determining sea-level rise in the Caribbean: A shift from temperature to mass control

Tropical Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as those in the Caribbean, are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, most notably sea-level rise. The current sea-level rise in the Caribbean is 3.40 ± 0.3 mm/year (1993–2019), which is similar to the 3.25 ± 0.4 mm/year global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise (1993–2018). Throughout the year, Caribbean seasonal sea-level variability is found to respond to sea surface temperature variability. Over the past few decades, the trend in Caribbean Sea-level rise is also found to be variable. Satellite altimetry and steric sea-level records of the Caribbean region reveal a shift in the late 2003-early 2004, which separates two distinct periods of sea-level rise. Thermal expansion dominates the sea-level trend from 1993–2003. Following this period, there is an increased trend in sea-level rise, with a dominance of mass changes from 2004–2019, as confirmed by GRACE data. During this period, the sea-level trend is 6.15 ± 0.5 mm/year, which is 67% faster than the most recent estimates of global mean sea-level rise provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year for the period 2006–2018). Despite its reduced importance, increasing temperatures contribute greatly to sea-level rise in the Caribbean region through thermal expansion of ocean water, hence there is a need to limit the current trend of global warming.

Impacts of anthropocene sea-level rise on people, environments, and archaeological sites in Marajó Island, Brazilian Amazonia

Impacts of anthropocene sea-level rise on people, environments, and archaeological sites in Marajó Island, Brazilian Amazonia

Sea level rise estimation and projection from long-term multi-mission satellite altimetry and tidal data in the Southeast Asia region

ABSTRACT The Southeast Asian (SEA) region represents a complex coastal geographical location. Most countries in SEA are encircled by the ocean, with lowlands coastal areas. The advantages of long-term satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements have enabled climate-related research, particularly sea level rise, to be examined extensively in spatial and temporal scales. In this study, sea level anomaly (SLA) derived from 26 years of multi-mission satellite altimeter data plus approximately 28 years of tidal data have been utilized. Then, the projection for every 10 years starting from 2030 until 2100 has been analysed using machine learning regression. The projections are then evaluated based on the global model of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The findings presented that sea level rise trends around SEA with overall means of 4.70 ± 0.37 mm yr−1 for the satellite altimeter and 3.41 ± 0.24 mm yr−1 for the coastal tide gauge. Sea level projection from coastal tide gauge and satellite altimeter are expected to rise up to 34.87 and 33.71 cm, respectively, in 2100. These outcomes prove that the altimetry data from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS) and the redundant tidal data are capable in measuring the sea level in SEA. These results are also expected to be valuable for multidisciplinary environmental studies in SEA, such as coastal flooding, coastal erosion, and other effect of global warming. Thus, it would make a meaningful contribution towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13, climate action, by providing the sea level rate and prediction information.

Suboptimal Rootzone Growth Prevents Long Island (NY) Salt Marshes from Keeping Pace with Sea Level Rise

Salt marsh habitat loss and conversion are well documented across the marine-coastal district of New York. Regionally, these losses are characterized by marsh edge erosion, ditch and creek widening, internal ponding, and conversion from irregularly flooded marsh to regularly flooded marsh and intertidal mudflats. These changes in horizontal extent and shifts in vegetation composition suggest that NY’s salt marshes may not be keeping pace with sea level rise. To evaluate elevation building processes, deep rod surface elevation tables, marker horizons, and shallow rod surface elevation tables (SET-MHs and shallow RSETs) were installed as a network across Long Island, NY. Contributions of surface, shallow subsurface, and deeper processes to overall elevation changes were observed from 2008 to 2022. Using a linear mixed model approach, surface accretion, shallow subsurface rootzone growth, and deeper below-ground processes were evaluated against regional sea level rise, nutrient loading, and marsh area trends. We found that marshes on Long Island are not keeping pace with sea level rise because they lack vertical elevation growth within the rootzone. Optimizing conditions for belowground growth of native salt marsh plants and preservation of organic matter within the peat matrix is key for restoring salt marshes to a positive elevation trajectory relative to sea level rise. Much like a retirement savings account, knowing whether our marshes are increasing in elevation is important, but understanding the full suite of deposits and withdrawals is critical for managing this valuable resource for the future.

Sentinel-1 InSAR-derived land subsidence assessment along the Texas Gulf Coast

Sentinel-1 InSAR-derived land subsidence assessment along the Texas Gulf Coast

Effects of rising seas and geomorphological changes in the islands of northern Bay of Bengal

Effects of rising seas and geomorphological changes in the islands of northern Bay of Bengal

Analysis and Exploration of the Impact of Average Sea Level Change on Navigational Safety in Ports

The primary clientele of a harbor is vessels, and vessels are primarily influenced by external forces such as wind (on the water surface), currents (underwater), and waves (affecting vessel stability). Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider safety factors such as marine environmental forces and port characteristics. As ship sailing falls under applied science, acquiring marine meteorological information regarding ship routes can enhance port navigational safety. However, in the face of changes in the environmental conditions of harbor waters, it is essential to fully consider the impact of the external environment on ship maneuvering. One can effectively navigate complex operating environments by devising reasonable ship-handling plans. In the context of sea level rise caused by extreme climatic events, long-term variations, trends, and random factors are at play. Previous assessments of sea level rise have often relied on linear regression and the least squares method to determine coefficients. However, these methods fail to accurately capture the actual trend of sea level rise. Additionally, traditional harmonic analysis methods are unable to analyze sea level rise as well. Therefore, in this study, the techniques of simple moving average (SMA), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) were applied to analyze sea level rise. The obtained results of sea level rise under different analysis conditions were integrated with a hydrodynamic model that incorporates both wave and tidal characteristics to calculate the overall coastal dynamics parameters, which are crucial for ship navigation. The research findings contribute to the study of ship navigational safety issues by examining the distribution characteristics of port meteorology under climate change conditions. They offer valuable insights for mariners to assess navigational safety and devise maneuvering strategies based on the actual water flow conditions. Furthermore, the findings help identify and address potential risks and issues, ultimately ensuring the safety of navigation.

Structure and Temporal Variability of the Northern Branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Drake Passage

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current plays the key role in the circulation of the Southern Ocean and affects the distribution of heat by the ocean on the global scale. The study of the dynamics and structure of this current becomes especially important in a changing climate. The current is well revealed by satellite altimetry data, which makes possible to study temporal and spatial variability of its structure at different scales. In these studies, the methods for determining the position of individual fronts of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current based on satellite altimetry data become especially important. In this work, we compare various approaches for detection of front locations. The structure of the northernmost branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the Subantarctic Front, and its spatial and temporal variability was studied based on satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2020 and the results of a hydrographical section occupied by the R/V “Akademik Mstislav Keldysh” in the northern part of the Drake Passage in February 2020. We selected a 350 km long part of the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1,2,3 satellite altimeter track from Tierra del Fuego to the south for the analysis of the dynamics of the front. Criteria for determining the position of the northern and main branches of the Subantarctic Front are presented based on satellite altimetry data. A long-term shift of the position of the fronts relative to the previously accepted levels of absolute dynamic topography has been found. It was found that the accuracy of determining the position of fronts using fixed values of dynamic topography may decrease with time, in particular due to changes in the mean sea level. A statistically significant long-term trend of sea level rise in the region of the Subantarctic Front was found. This trend is 4 mm/yr for the northern branch and 2.5 mm/yr for the main branch.

Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland

Abstract. We explore past trends and future projections of mean sea level (MSL) at the Finnish coast, in the northeastern Baltic Sea, during the period 1901–2100. We decompose the relative MSL change into three components: regional sea level rise (SLR), postglacial land uplift, and the effect of changes in wind climate. Past trends of regional SLR can be calculated after subtracting the other two components from the MSL trends observed by tide gauges, as the land uplift rates obtained from the semi-empirical model NKG2016LU are independent of tide gauge observations. According to the results, local absolute SLR trends are close to global mean rates. To construct future projections, we combine an ensemble of global SLR projections in a probabilistic framework. In addition, we use climate model results to estimate future changes in wind climate and their effect on MSL in the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea. This yields probability distributions of MSL change for three scenarios representing different future emission pathways. Spatial variations in the MSL projections result primarily from different local land uplift rates: under the medium-emission scenario RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5, for example, the projected MSL change (5 % to 95 % range) over the 21st century varies from −28 (−54 to 24) cm in the Bothnian Bay to 31 (5 to 83) cm in the eastern Gulf of Finland.

Widespread global disparities between modelled and observed mid-depth ocean currents

The mid-depth ocean circulation is critically linked to actual changes in the long-term global climate system. However, in the past few decades, predictions based on ocean circulation models highlight the lack of data, knowledge, and long-term implications in climate change assessment. Here, using 842,421 observations produced by Argo floats from 2001-2020, and Lagrangian simulations, we show that only 3.8% of the mid-depth oceans, including part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, can be regarded as accurately modelled, while other regions exhibit significant underestimations in mean current velocity. Knowledge of ocean circulation is generally more complete in the low-latitude oceans but is especially poor in high latitude regions. Accordingly, we propose improvements in forecasting, model representation of stochasticity, and enhancement of observations of ocean currents. The study demonstrates that knowledge and model representations of global circulation are substantially compromised by inaccuracies of significant magnitude and direction, with important implications for modelled predictions of currents, temperature, carbon dioxide sequestration, and sea-level rise trends.

COASTAL INUNDATION SIMULATION IN SELANGOR UTILISING GEOSPATIAL TECHNOLOGY

Abstract. Coastal inundation is one of the most visible consequences of rising sea levels, affecting socioeconomics and human activities. Coastal inundation is the flooding of normally dry land. This is related to the long-term effects of rising sea levels and the short-term effects, such as floods and storm surges. This study aims to establish a coastal inundation simulation of sea level rise in the Selangor coastal areas using satellite altimetry and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, as well as Geographical Information System (GIS) software. This study uses robust fit regression method to generate sea level rise trend and projection using multi-mission satellite altimetry data. The combination of altimetric and DEM data is used to simulate areas susceptible to inundation due to sea level rise. In order to construct maps to determine the location of coastal inundation, ArcGIS software is used to demonstrate the inundation areas. The output of this study, particularly the information on sea level projections will be an invaluable element in assisting authorities with future coastal planning and development, as well as helping local government agencies and the general public by providing information on sea-level rise, flood risk zones, and coastal inundation to predict the upcoming sea level and flood discharge. The findings are intended to observe the increment in sea level in coastal areas, therefore, it is possible to anticipate the expected increase in flood areas in the coming year and make preparations in advance.

Using a Tandem Flight Configuration between Sentinel-6 and Jason-3 to Compare SAR and Conventional Altimeters in Sea Surface Signatures of Internal Solitary Waves

Satellite altimetry has been providing a continuous record of ocean measurements with numerous applications across the entire range of ocean sciences. A reference orbit has been used since 1992 with TOPEX/Poseidon, which was repeated in the Jason missions, and in the newly launched Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich (in November 2020) to continually monitor the trends of sea level rise and other properties of the sea surface. These multidecadal missions have evolved alongside major technological advances, whose measurements are unified into a single data record owing to continuous intercalibration and validation efforts. However, the new Sentinel-6 provides synthetic aperture radar (SAR) processing, which improves the along-track resolution of conventional altimeters from a few kilometres (e.g., for Jason-3) to about 300 m. This means a major leap in sampling towards higher frequencies of the ocean spectrum, which inevitably means reconciling the assumption of a uniform Brown surface between the footprints of the larger kilometre-scale conventional altimetry and those of the finer-scale SAR altimetry. To explore this issue, this study uses the vantage point of the Sentinel-6/Jason-3 tandem phase to compare simultaneous sea surface signatures of large-scale Internal Solitary Waves (ISWs) between SAR and conventional altimetry. These waves can modulate the sea surface into arrayed sections of increased and decreased roughness with horizontal scales up to 10 km, which inflict sharp transitions between increased and decreased backscatter in the radar altimeters. It is found that Sentinel-6 can provide more detailed structures of ISWs in standard level-2 products, when compared with those from the conventional Jason-3 (similarly to previous results reported from the SAR altimeter from Sentinel-3). However, a new and striking feature is found when comparing the radar backscatter between Sentinel-6 and Jason-3, which are in opposite phases in the ISWs. These intriguing results are discussed in light of the intrinsically different acquisition geometries of SAR and conventional altimeters as well as possible implications thereof.

Coastal Melaleuca wetlands under future climate and sea-level rise scenarios in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: vulnerability and conservation

Melaleuca wetland ecosystems play crucial roles in ecology and human livelihood, yet the ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change and relative sea-level rise (SLR) impacts. Documents and research on climate change and SLR impacts on coastal Melaleuca wetlands in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, are currently limited. Therefore, the present study aimed to identify changes in habitat suitability for a coastal Melaleuca wetland species in response to different future climate change and SLR scenarios, in the West Sea of the Mekong Delta, with the aid of an ensemble species distribution model (SDM) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Melaleuca species occurrence records, bioclimatic and eco-physiological variables were utilized to predict potential distribution of the species in response to current and future climate scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and 8.5) for the year 2070. Wetland maps for 2020, a digital elevation model (DEM) and localized site-specific parameters (i.e. historic trend of SLR, erosion, subsidence and overwash) were utilized as input data for SLAMM to simulate spatial distribution of Melaleuca/forested wetlands under the two SLR scenarios. The final habitat suitability for the Melaleuca wetland species was identified based on these two resultant datasets, climatic suitability and spatial distribution of the wetlands. Simulated results suggested mean losses in suitable habitat of 29.8% and 58.7% for stable and subsidence scenarios, respectively, for the year 2070 in comparison to the baseline scenario. SLR combined with considerable subsidence rate was suggested as one of the main drivers responsible for the habitat suitability loss. The findings obtained from the current work are useful sources for planning conservation areas for the Melaleuca wetlands, to protect and preserve the ecosystems and their important services under future climate and SLR scenarios.

Novel insights into the sea level evolution along the coast of Bozburun Peninsula (Turkey): A study on submerged Bronze Age harbor in Çamçalık

AbstractA recent discovery of a Bronze Age harbor site in Çamçalık provides new data for the relative sea level history along the coast of the Bozburun Peninsula over the last 3600 years. In this study, we compared the new and previously published data from nearby sites to determine the long‐term relative sea level changes. Further comparison of the observed sea level data and newly produced glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models clarified the tectonic contribution to the relative sea level changes. Our results suggest a nonlinear tectonic subsidence trend in the coastal zone since 3600 B.P. The increase in the relative sea level accelerated over the last 1400 years, mostly due to the seismic events controlled by the tectonic regime of the southeastern Aegean Sea. We can conclude that, as in the past, this active tectonic process will have a major impact on the future sea level evolution of the coastal sector of the Bozburun Peninsula. Notably, our study can be used to understand the historical trend of sea level rise while providing a foundation for future trend prediction.

KECENDERUNGAN PERKEMBANGAN KOTA AMBON: DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP KUALITAS LINGKUNGAN PESISIR TELUK AMBON DAN KERENTANANNYA TERHADAP BAHAYA TERKAIT DENGAN KENAIKAN MUKA LAUT

Ambon City, the capital of Maluku Province, is a coastal city where most of the land is the Ambon Bay coastal area. Along with the increase in population, Ambon City also continues to grow. Global sea-level rise is now likely to receive attention because of the impact it may have on coastal areas. By 2100, it is projected that sea levels will rise to 1.1 meters from the current sea level. As a coastal city, the trend of sea-level rise should be taken into account in the development of Ambon City. Visual analysis of the Ambon Bay satellite imagery from Google Earth and video recordings published on social media and the results of field observations of the Ambon Bay coastal area show that: (1) the coastal lowlands in the Ambon Bay coastal area have developed into densely populated built areas; (2) Ambon City is growing towards hilly areas; (3) along the coast of Ambon Bay, there are efforts to carry out reclamation and build coastal defense structures which are carried out personally by the coastal land authorities. This tendency has implications for (1) the decline in the environmental quality of the coastal area of Ambon Bay in several locations; and (2) increasing the level of vulnerability of coastal areas to hazards that may arise due to sea-level rise along the coast of Ambon Bay if the sea level rise scenario above actually occurs

How climate change affected on water level in Ha Long coastal area in the period 1974–2020: results from the mann-kendall test and sen’s slope estimate

The impact of climate change on sea level has attracted much attention from scientists worldwide. The analysis of sea-level change at global and regional scales is based on altimetry and/or tide gauge data. The main objective’s study relied on statistical tests to highlight the significant long-term changes in sea level in Ha Long coastal area through the 47 years (1974–2020) historical tide gauge record of the Bai Chay station. The average water level in this area was 207.9 cm, which tended to be higher in recent years, especially from 2006 to the present (above 210 cm). Moreover, sea level trends were carried out separately for the whole period (1974–2020) and the last 19 years (2002–2020) by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed a significant sea-level rise (SLR) trend with a 95–100% confidence level. The average annual rates of sea-level were 3.14 mm/year and 5.83 mm/year in 1974–2020 and 2002–2020, respectively, indicating an SLR of about 14.76 cm over 47 years and significant acceleration in SLR recently (11.01 cm over the last 19 years).