Changing temperature and precipitation patterns are shaping tree climate-growth limitations. The influence of climate change affects individual tree species differently, and can also differ across extensive geographical regions. The Carpathians, a vast mountainous area of Europe, host significant numbers of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), both of which exhibit distinct climate-growth responses despite sharing similar ecological niches. Our study aims to discern the effects of climate change across Carpathians and forecast the future growth trajectories of silver fir and European beech within this area. We selected eight sites along the Carpathian arc at similar elevations and edaphic conditions, dendrochronologically sampled and measured 15 mature canopy trees of both species. Using the Vaganov-Shashkin process-based model, we simulated radial growth and computed growing season variables as well as temperature and moisture limitations. Model calibration covered the period from 1985 to 2015. E-OBS data were then used to simulate the period between 1985 and 2022, while the bias-corrected prediction of the RCP 4.5 scenario was utilized for predictions from 2023 to 2050. Our research revealed three distinct regions in the Carpathians, each with varying climate-growth limitations: the northern, south-western, and south-eastern areas. Northern sites primarily experienced limitations due to cold temperatures, while southern sites were predominantly constrained by insufficient moisture, intensifying eastward. Silver fir in northern sites exhibited significant low-temperature limitations and showed a higher response to climate conditions compared to European beech. Conversely, European beech consistently showed higher moisture-driven growth limitations than silver fir, indicating a better adaptability of silver fir to dryer conditions. Differences between recent and future periods were non-significant in most cases. However, there was a gradual convergence of northern sites to climatically limited growth in south-western sites.
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