Spatio-temporal trends in the frost regime reveal late frost exposure to white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) persists in northeastern America

Abstract

Abstract The characteristics of the frost regime (intensity, frequency, and timing) contribute to shaping tree species adaptations and distribution as well as ecosystem productivity and functions. However, climate change increases the variability in extreme events; therefore, the different characteristics of the frost regime may diverge under climate change. Using the BioSim 11 software, we simulated daily air temperature at 512 locations over northeastern North America between 1901–2021 to determine how the spatio-temporal trends in the frost regime varied over this complex landscape and if spatio-temporal trends in extreme climatic events such as frosts are stronger compared to changes in aggregated climate variables such as mean annual air temperature and growing degree-days. We also used an eco-physiological model to conduct a case study focussing on white spruce to determine if trees are currently more exposed to growing season frosts than they were in the past by modelling the timings of budburst using the thermal time model. Our results showed that, at 67% of locations (343 locations), the day of the year of the last frost in spring (minimum daily air temperature<0 °C) occurred, on average, earlier by seven days during 2001–2021 compared to 1901–1920, whereas it occurred, on average, later by four days at 33% of locations (169 locations). The average temporal trends in frost occurrence were similar in magnitude to the average trends in aggregated climate variables; however, their variances were larger compared to the aggregated climate metrics, showing that the frost regime does not change uniformly throughout our study area. Our case study also revealed that white spruce remains exposed to late frosts of low and intermediate intensities (minimum daily air temperature <0; <−2 °C) compared to the past but exposure to high-intensity frosts (minimum daily air temperature <−4 °C) is rare. Since extreme events such as late frosts diverge in their response to climate change compared to aggregated climate variables, the mean annual temperature is not sufficient to predict how climate change will impact ecosystems through frost regimes.