Tree-ring Based Climate Reconstructions Research Articles

Historical Forest Management Practices Influence Tree-Ring Based Climate Reconstructions

Tree-ring widths (TRW) of historical and archeological wood provide crucial proxies, frequently used for high-resolution multi-millennial paleoclimate reconstructions. Former growing conditions of the utilized trees, however, are largely unknown. Potential influences of historical forest management practices on climatic information, derived from TRW variability need to be considered but have not been assessed so far. Here, we examined the suitability of TRW series from traditionally managed oak forests (Quercus spp.) for climate reconstructions. We compared the climate signal in TRW chronologies of trees originating from high forests and coppice-with-standards (CWS) forests, a silvicultural management practice widely used in Europe for most of the common era. We expected a less distinct climate control in CWS due to management-induced growth patterns, yet an improved climate-growth relationship with TRW data from conventionally managed high forests. CWS tree rings showed considerably weaker correlations with hydroclimatic variables than non-CWS trees. The greatest potential for hydroclimate reconstructions was found for a large dataset containing both CWS and non-CWS trees, randomly collected from lumber yards, resembling the randomness in sources of historical material. Our results imply that growth patterns induced by management interventions can dampen climate signals in TRW chronologies. However, their impact can be minimized in well replicated, randomly sampled regional chronologies.

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

Growth of male and female Araucaria araucana trees respond differently to regional mast events, creating sex-specific patterns in their tree-ring chronologies

Araucaria araucana is a dioecious evergreen conifer endemic from temperate forests of south Argentina and Chile. It is a long-lived species (maximum age > 1000 years), and it presents a high potential for tree-ring based climate reconstructions. However, the species’ dioecious habit can result in distinct sex-specific growth patterns, which introduce novel challenges in the interpretation of tree-ring chronology variations. We used a network of 10 tree-ring chronologies from northwest Patagonia (Argentina) to analyze sex-specific growth patterns in A. araucana and, for the first time, demonstrate that they result from the contrasting responses of ring width index of male (RWImale) and female (RWIfemale) trees to regional mast events (years with high seed production). During the year of seed maturation and seed dispersal, the growth of females was strongly and significantly reduced, while a growth response of similar magnitude was found in male trees in the previous year, corresponding to the year of pollination. We interpret these growth responses as representing contrasting allocation shifts between growth and reproduction in males and females. The sex-specific growth responses associated with mast events resulted in a particularly strong and distinct signal in a RWImale–RWIfemale chronology. Male and female tree-ring chronologies shared a strong common signal, and responded similarly (but not exactly) to broad-scale climatic conditions in the growing season. Our results indicate that sex-specific tree-ring chronologies can be used to isolate mast events in A. araucana chronologies, providing an opportunity to develop unique multi-century reconstructions of large mast events, and improve dendroclimatic calibration for this species.

Juniper Tree-Ring Data from the Kuramin Range (Northern Tajikistan) Reveals Changing Summer Drought Signals in Western Central Asia

Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of Central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here, we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the moisture-sensitive Zeravshan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica Kom.) from the Kuramin Range (Tajikistan) in western Central Asia, which is used to reveal past summer drought variability from 1650 to 2015 Common Era (CE). The chronology accounts for 40.5% of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods, including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875, and 1931–1987, and five wet periods, including 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930, and 1988–2015, were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and capture the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the spectral analysis indicates the existence of centennial (128 years), decadal (24.3 and 11.4 years), and interannual (8.0, 3.6, 2.9, and 2.0 years) cycles, which may be linked with climate forces, such as solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation systems.

Removing the no-analogue bias in modern accelerated tree growth leads to stronger medieval drought

In many parts of the world, especially in the temperate regions of Europe and North-America, accelerated tree growth rates have been observed over the last decades. This widespread phenomenon is presumably caused by a combination of factors like atmospheric fertilization or changes in forest structure and/or management. If not properly acknowledged in the calibration of tree-ring based climate reconstructions, considerable bias concerning amplitudes and trends of reconstructed climatic parameters might emerge or low frequency information is lost. Here we present a simple but effective, data-driven approach to remove the recent non-climatic growth increase in tree-ring data. Accounting for the no-analogue calibration problem, a new hydroclimatic reconstruction for northern-central Europe revealed considerably drier conditions during the medieval climate anomaly (MCA) compared with standard reconstruction methods and other existing reconstructions. This demonstrates the necessity to account for fertilization effects in modern tree-ring data from affected regions before calibrating reconstruction models, to avoid biased results.

Climate-growth response of Chinese white pine (Pinus armandii) at different age groups in the Baiyunshan National Nature Reserve, central China

Climate-growth response of trees at different age groups is less studied in humid regions of central China. In this study, we divided Pinus armandii ring-width series collected from the Baiyunshan National Nature Reserve of central China into young and old age groups based on the Hierarchical cluster analysis. Chronology statistics indicate that mean sensitivity (M.S.), signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and expressed population signal (EPS) are higher in the old age group than that in the young age group. Meanwhile, there is are growth difference between the two age groups during their common period 1966–2014. Trees in the old age group exhibit significant decadal (∼10-year) cycles in the 1960s–1980s, while the 2–3-year cycles are more pronounced for the young age group. Correlation analysis between tree-rings and climate factors shows that the old trees generally contain more climatic information and are more sensitive to temperature, precipitation and moisture variability than the young trees, consistent with the chronology statistics. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the “juvenile effect” of young trees on tree-ring based climate reconstructions in the area.

Should artificial neural networks replace linear models in tree ring based climate reconstructions?

Studies focused on tree ring—climate relationships usually use linear methods to find the optimal transfer function. In our study, three sites with three different tree species from the Western Balkan region were selected to compare linear and artificial neural network (ANN) nonlinear models and to see whether linear models can be potentially replaced with ANN in climate reconstruction. For each site, one linear and two different ANN models were calculated. For all analysed sites, we were able to find a better fit using the advanced technique of ANN. All calibration and verification statistics were in favour of ANN models. A climate variable was reconstructed for a selected site using linear and nonlinear ANN methods. We demonstrated that ANN is always a more effective method, which always produce better results than linear models. The key to success is a properly selected training algorithm, which prevents overfitting and is able to find the optimal transfer function, also linear, if that is the case.

Wood density provides new opportunities for reconstructing past temperature variability from southeastern Australian trees

Tree-ring based climate reconstructions have been critical for understanding past variability and recent trends in climate worldwide, but they are scarce in Australia. This is particularly the case for temperature: only one tree-ring width based temperature reconstruction – based on Huon Pine trees from Mt Read, Tasmania – exists for Australia. Here, we investigate whether additional tree-ring parameters derived from Athrotaxis cupressoides trees growing in the same region have potential to provide robust proxy records of past temperature variability.We measured wood properties, including tree-ring width (TRW), mean density, mean cell wall thickness (CWT), and tracheid radial diameter (TRD) of annual growth rings in Athrotaxis cupressoides, a long-lived, high-elevation conifer in central Tasmania, Australia. Mean density and CWT were strongly and negatively correlated with summer temperatures. In contrast, the summer temperature signal in TRW was weakly positive. The strongest climate signal in any of the tree-ring parameters was maximum temperature in January (mid-summer; JanTmax) and we chose this as the target climate variable for reconstruction. The model that explained most of the variance in JanTmax was based on TRW and mean density as predictors. TRW and mean density provided complementary proxies with mean density showing greater high-frequency (inter-annual to multi-year) variability and TRW showing more low-frequency (decadal to centennial-scale) variability. The final reconstruction model is robust, explaining 55% of the variance in JanTmax, and was used to reconstruct JanTmax for the last five centuries (1530–2010C.E.). The reconstruction suggests that the most recent 60 years have been warmer than average in the context of the last ca. 500years. This unusually warm period is likely linked to a coincident increase in the intensity of the subtropical ridge and dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in summer, which weaken the influence of the band of prevailing westerly winds and storms on Tasmanian climate. Our findings indicate that wood properties, such as mean density, are likely to provide significant contributions toward the development of robust climate reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere and thus toward an improved understanding of past climate in Australasia.

On the hidden significance of differing micro-sites on tree-ring based climate reconstructions

Tree-ring chronologies are commonly extended back in time by combining samples from living trees with relict material preserved in man-made structures or natural archives (e.g. lakes). Although spatially close, these natural archives and living-tree-sites often comprise different micro-climates. Inhomogeneous growth conditions among these habitats, which may yield offsets in growth-rates, require caution in data processing. Here we assess species-specific growth dynamics in two micro-habitats and their potential effects on long chronologies by combining tree-ring data from different living-tree-sites with an “artificial” subfossil dataset. Well replicated (n &gt; 80) Norway spruce ( (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine ( L.) chronologies from northern Fennoscandia, sampled directly at the lakeshore (wet) and several meters beyond the lakeshore (dry) reveal high coherence of the variance between micro-sites ( = 0.59,  = 0.68). Significant differences of the Regional Curves (RC) indicate faster growth of both species at the drier site though. Growth differences are more pronounced between the spruce micro-sites. The combination of recent dry and wet spruce data with artificial relict data results in two long chronologies covering the last 800 years with substantially different trends, although they consist of the same relict material and the micro-site chronologies correlate significantly over the past two centuries. The combination of spruce samples from dry inland micro-sites with subfossil samples originating from the wet lake shore can result in an underestimation of past temperatures prior to the 19th century. Such effects, hidden in the composition of long chronologies (living trees + subfossil samples) can bias long-term trends in climate reconstructions.Picea abiesPinus sylvestrisrsprucerpine

Tree ring-based winter temperature reconstruction for Changting, Fujian, subtropical region of Southeast China, since 1850: linkages to the Pacific Ocean

Until recently, there have been very few tree-ring studies in southeast China due largely to the scarcity of old trees and the complexity of relationships between tree growth and climate in subtropical regions of China. Recent studies on the conifers in southeast China revealed that tree ring-based climate reconstructions are feasible. Here, we describe a reconstruction (AD 1850–2009) of November–February maximum temperatures for Changting, Fujian, southeast China based on tree ring width data of Pinus massiniana which considerably extends the available climatic information. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1956–2009 show a high level of skill and account for a significant portion of the observed variance (32.9%) irrespective of which period is used to develop or verify the regression model. Split sample validation supports our use of a reconstruction model based on the full period of reliable observational data (1956–2009). Warm periods occurred during 1854–1859, 1868–1880, 1885–1899, 1906–1914, 1920–1943, 1964–1975 and 1994–present; while the periods of AD 1850–1853, 1860–1867, 1881–1884, 1900–1907, 1915–1919, 1944–1963 and 1976–1993 were relatively cold. The climate correlation analyses with gridded temperature dataset and SST revealed that our season temperature reconstruction contains the strong large-scale climate signals. Our results suggest that some warm winters of Changting are coincident with El Nino events over the past 150 years. In addition, several severely cold winters coincide with major volcanic eruptions.

Site-aspect influence on climate sensitivity over time of a high-altitude Pinus cembra tree-ring network

Recently a divergence between tree-ring parameters from temperature-limited environments and temperature records has been observed worldwide but comprehensive explanations are still lacking. From a dendroclimatic analysis performed on a high-altitude tree-ring network of Pinus cembra (L.) in the Central Italian Alps we found that site aspect influences non-stationary growth-climate relationships over time. A general increasing divergence between ring width and the summer temperature record (J–A) has been observed especially for chronologies from SW-facing slopes, whereas chronologies from N-facing sites showed stable relationships over time. The monthly analysis revealed that the decrease in sensitivity was mostly accounted for by the changes in the relationships with June temperature (decreasing correlations especially for S- and W-facing site chronologies), whereas trees from N-facing sites showed an increasing sensitivity to July temperatures. Our data suggest that at high altitudes, low temperatures at the beginning of the growing season no longer limit growth. We also found that our temperature-sensitive trees did not linearly respond in radial growth to the extreme heat event of summer 2003, and formed an annual ring of average width, resulting in a strong divergence from the temperature record. Our findings underline the importance of site ecology for tree-ring based climate reconstructions using temperature-sensitive ring-width chronologies, and may help in solving the ‘divergence problem’.

Hydroclimatic variation in Far North Queensland since 1860 inferred from tree rings

In tropical Australia, palaeoclimatic proxies derived from tree rings are sought after sources for reconstructing climate variations. However, dendroclimatology has not been widely applied in tropical forests and even less so in the Australian tropics due to the extreme rarity of species producing anatomically distinct annual growth rings. Furthermore, most Australian tree species exhibit rather strong opportunistic growth with non-annual growth zones that are less suitable for dendrochronology. Recent studies on the Australian Red Cedar ( Toona ciliata) in the Upper Kangaroo Valley near Sydney revealed that tree-ring based climate reconstructions are feasible with this species. This study moved 2500 km further north and concentrated on the tropical stands of T. ciliata because it is one of the few deciduous tree species in tropical Australia likely characterised by a dormant period of the cambium and thus annual tree rings. Although dendroclimatological studies indicate that some Australian tree species are suitable for reconstructing climate patterns, a well replicated tree-ring record from Far North Queensland has not been developed until now. Tree cores of T. ciliata were developed into a 140-year tree-ring widths index chronology. The analyses showed that the ring-widths indices correlate with March–June precipitation as recorded at Kairi research station. March–June precipitation was reconstructed using the tree-ring data with 35% of the variance explained. The reconstructed series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals. This suggests that growth of T. ciliata is influenced by climate phenomena of different wave lengths which can be associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO).

Climate signal age effects—Evidence from young and old trees in the Swiss Engadin

A potential limitation of tree-ring based climate reconstructions is related to climate signal age effects (CSAE). CSAE may arise if the climatic response of young tree-rings differs from that of old tree-rings. This could mean that climatic signals become stronger (or weaker) with tree aging, or that the seasonality of signals or the sensitivity to a specific element (e.g., temperature, precipitation) changes over time. Such changes would affect the interpretation of dendroclimatic reconstructions, as the tree-rings included in these records are generally oldest at the end of a record (e.g., 21st century)—which is the time period generally used for calibration with instrumental data. We here addressed this concern by analyzing young and old Pinus cembra trees from three high elevation sites in the central European Alps. Core and disc samples were collected in pre-defined plots to allow for a representative analysis of tree ages with tree-ring width (TRW) measurement series categorized into age classes (i) >1880, (ii) 1880–1939, and (iii) 1940–2002. Notably we report on the signal of the very young category (iii) not yet described in literature, and thus allow estimation of climate response and signal strength characteristics during the first years of the trees’ lifespans. Comparison of age classes (i)–(iii) revealed differences in TRW coherence and size, but little change in climatic signal. CSAE are in the order of the differences recorded among high elevation sites—a conclusion that holds for inter-annual to decadal scale TRW variations at near-treeline Swiss stone pine. Such data are typically included in regional and larger-scale temperature reconstructions; thus, our results add confidence to long-term climate estimates integrating a range of tree-ring age classes. Other findings, such as the reaction wood in juvenile tree-rings, and sensitivity of the climate signal to sample replication, suggest that comparisons of young and old age classes, and separate calibration of these categories against instrumental climate data might further the estimation of long-term uncertainty changes in tree-ring based climate reconstructions.

Combining Ring Width, Density and Stable Carbon Isotope Proxies to Enhance the Climate Signal in Tree-Rings: An Example from the Southern French Alps

At present the most powerful tree-ring based climate reconstructions use high numbers of growth proxy series (ring width and density) to produce spatially smoothed estimates, such as average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. These single parameter reconstructions might be supplemented with regional climate reconstructions capable of capturing variability in more than one climate variable without lower replication compromising statistical quality, if multiple tree ring proxies were used. Pinus sylvestris and Pinus uncinata latewood density, width and δ13C series are presented from two sites in the French subalpine zone, east of Briancon. Where two proxies have the same dominant climate control their combination enhances that signal. Where proxies differ in dominant controlling climate variable, combining series allows access to bi-variable calibrations. Using this approach, multi-proxy reconstructions of both temperature and precipitation would better reflect complex synoptic variability in climate on spatially useful scales.