Juniper Tree-Ring Data from the Kuramin Range (Northern Tajikistan) Reveals Changing Summer Drought Signals in Western Central Asia

Feng Chen,Tongwen Zhang,Hans W Linderholm,Zainalobudin V Kobuliev,Andrea Seim,Ruibo Zhang,Ahsan Ahmadov,Anvar Kodirov,Shulong Yu

doi:10.3390/f10060505

Abstract

Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of Central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here, we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the moisture-sensitive Zeravshan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica Kom.) from the Kuramin Range (Tajikistan) in western Central Asia, which is used to reveal past summer drought variability from 1650 to 2015 Common Era (CE). The chronology accounts for 40.5% of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods, including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875, and 1931–1987, and five wet periods, including 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930, and 1988–2015, were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and capture the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the spectral analysis indicates the existence of centennial (128 years), decadal (24.3 and 11.4 years), and interannual (8.0, 3.6, 2.9, and 2.0 years) cycles, which may be linked with climate forces, such as solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation systems.

Highlights

As a result of climate warming during recent decades, the intensity and frequency of drought events have been increasing [1,2,3]
The Kuramin Range chronology was positively and significantly correlated with self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI)
We investigated the correlations between the Kuramin Range chronology and the seasonally averaged scPDSI, and the strongest correlation (r: 0.637) was found with mean June–July scPDSI (1901–2012)

Summary

Introduction

As a result of climate warming during recent decades, the intensity and frequency of drought events have been increasing [1,2,3]. Climate models predict a significant increase in the extent of dry Forests 2019, 10, 505; doi:10.3390/f10060505 www.mdpi.com/journal/forests. Forests 2019, 10, 505 areas across the globe, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere, with a potential expansion of arid lands by up to 80% in developing countries [4,5]. Climate change and related drought events have significant influences on the socioeconomic and human well-being in arid Central Asia, in densely populated dry lands, such as the Fergana Basin [6,7,8]. Due to poor spatiotemporal coverage of meteorological records in the mountains areas, there are uncertainties in the estimation of Central Asian climate change. To achieve more accurate assessments of climate change in a long-term perspective in this region, high-resolution climate proxy data is needed

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Results

Discussion

Conclusion