Treasury Bill Rate Research Articles

Gold price forecasting using multivariate stochastic model

Commodities prices are pivotal to the mineral investment decision and have a considerable impact on mining companies' financial performance and countries that depend on mineral resources. Therefore, understanding the future mineral price movement is critical for revenue-based planning both for the company and the country. In this article, the Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model was used to forecast annual gold prices using gold demand, treasury bills rates, and lagged gold prices as covariates. Augmented Dickey Fuller and the Phillips Perron methods were used to test for unit roots and found that all the variables were integrated of order one. Subsequently, the cointegration test was undertaken, which indicated that there is no cointegration between the variables. This entailed application of the short-run version of the ARDL to forecasts and consequent analysis. A Granger causality analysis show that gold demand Granger causes gold price; and that treasury bill rates do not Granger cause gold price. Lastly, the ARDL (4, 4, 2) model, which provides best ARDL forecast results, was evaluated against two other forecasting methods namely stochastic mean reverting, and Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average (ARIMA). Results showed that the ARDL model emerged as a best of all the three forecasting methods to forecast annual gold prices.

Economic pressures on airlines’ safety performance

We investigate if general economic conditions influence aviation safety across the whole sector. Specifically, the study explores the relationship among aviation accidents and incidents for Part 121 US commercial airlines with fuel prices, stock market volatility, industrial production growth, and treasury bill rates. Our findings suggest that most of the variables under consideration exhibit a strong association with airline safety. Importantly, we examine two plausible channels that may explain these results; managerial decisions and the effect on “human factor”. Analysis of airline financial data, health, and safety violations, along with airline employee satisfaction levels, suggests that it is more likely that the economy influences aviation safety through managerial decisions. This study confirms theoretical predictions about reductions on firms’ quality standards in periods of financial stress and liquidity constraints. The findings of the study have important implications for regulators and other stakeholders.

MONETARY POLICY AND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: MEASURING THE EXTENDED IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY

The study empirically investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on the performance of the industrial sector in Nigeria, and how this affect the general growth performance of the economy in the periods 1980-2018. Monetary policy variables used were money supply (M2t), monetary policy rate (Mprt), Treasury bill rate (Tbrt) and Credit to the private real sector (Credt). We also gauged the system with other control variables like gross fixed capital formation (gcft), inflation (????t) and exchange rate (exr). Utilizing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we found that any unanticipated shock on monetary policy rate and money supply growth will produce falling impact on industrial sector output that is consistent with no sign of convergence throughout the period. However, shocks to credit supply and treasury bill rate produces positive growth outliers at different magnitudes in the industrial sector. We also found statistically significant pass-through effect of monetary policy from the industrial sector to the general economy of at least 30 percent growth effect. A number of possible policy menu capable of deepening monetary policy-industrial performance nexus in Nigeria in years following the study have been prescribed in the studyincluding improved stock market development, bond market development and other credit channels that easily linked policy to the private sector for seamless policy transmission.

Electoral uncertainty and the volatility of international capital flows in Nigeria

This study examines the effects of changing political environment on capital flows and investment decision making especially in developing economies like Nigeria. It utilises structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) and Granger causality test to analyse the objectives of the study. The results indicate that shocks from political events have negative impact on the exchange rate with resultant rising positive treasury bill rates. The implication of these results is that attractiveness of yields in the Nigerian financial market appears to outweigh the political uncertainty consideration by investors during the electioneering periods. Though, these political events have depreciating effects on the foreign exchange market. The study, therefore, recommends that a government that is desirous of achieving optimal capital flows must adopt an appropriate mix of fiscal, structural and monetary policies, before, during and after the electioneering period.

Structural innovation in state variables and expected stock returns

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate whether the surprise components of systematic risk, which are useful in forecasting future investment opportunities, help explain the cross-section of average returns associated with portfolios sorted on size, book-to-market and accruals. This study also aims to examine the mispricing attributes of the size, value and accrual effects by investigating the relative economic relevance of aggregate risk factors, which are related to exogenous shocks in state variables, in the cross-sectional returns of triple-sorted portfolios.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses innovations of systematic risk, which affect the cash flows and risk-adjusted discount rates of all firms in an economy and determines the expected returns of portfolios based on firm characteristics. This study uses independent sorts based on size, book-to-market and total accruals – all of which are measured at the firm level – and construct three-dimensional test portfolios. For unobserved innovations, this study estimates a triangular structural vector autoregressive system and obtain the exogenous innovations in state variables. The author uses Fama-MacBeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions and examines whether the structural innovations explain a significant part of the cross-sectional variation in the average returns of the test portfolios.FindingsThis study finds that variations in expected returns of testing assets are determined by differences in the underlying assets’ exposure to systematic risk innovation. The empirical evidence also shows that exogenous innovation in Fama-French (FF) risk factors leaves out important cross-sectional information about expected returns, and additionally, the FF-factor betas have lower cross-sectional power than the proxy for innovation betas. The cross-sectional differences in the test portfolios’ sensitivity to instruments such as the short-term Treasury bill rate and term spread survive the presence of FF-factor betas.Originality/valueIn contrast to the existing literature, this study uses structural innovations that are uncorrelated and thus exogenous in nature. The author creates test portfolios that display a wide range of average returns and are unlikely to show spurious variability in risk exposures. Unlike the existing research, where size, value and accrual anomalies have been analyzed in isolation, this study examine these pricing patterns jointly, focusing on the possible contributing role of structural innovation in economy-wide predictor variables. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to link the sensitivity of portfolios sorted on size, book-to-market and accruals to exogenous structural innovation.

The Impact of Interest Rate Volatility on Stock Returns Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

Apprehension pertaining to Stock return volatility always has been producing the appreciable significance in the various current research works and it has been lucrative to many researchers for forecasting stock market volatility. This study is about the forecasting of stock returns volatility on the basis of interest rate volatility in the well established Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The stock returns are calculated on the basis of KSE 100 index and interest rate volatility is calculated on the basis of monthly treasury bills rate during a period of 1994 to 2016. Various volatility models like Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) were used to predict stock return volatility on the basis of interest rate volatility in Pakistan. ARCH model is one of the well known methods to forecast the error term in the data and which will certain our forecast regarding stock prices. In the Pakistan Stock Exchange the ARCH (1, 1) has been statistically significantly proved. The GARCH (1, 1) model is also used to estimate the stock volatility. This model shows the short run volatility affect the lagged stock returns and is contributing to the overall volatility. The sum of α and β is less than 1 so the short run volatility is positively related to the overall stock volatility. The GARCH (1, 1) model has outperformed the other volatility models in the case of Pakistan Stock Exchange.

MONETARY POLICY MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: NEW LESSONS RELEARNED

This research study examines the existing links between monetary policy management and economic growth in Nigeria within the period 1960-2018. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was employed to evaluate the cointegration as well as the short-run and long-run estimates. The findings showed that a long-run relationship exists between monetary policy and economic growth within the periods understudied. Concerning the estimated parameters, the results reported that interest rate, deposit rate and liquidity ratio positively drive short-run output growth whereas, monetary policy rate, Treasury bill rate, and cash reserve ratio have a direct impact on short-run output growth in Nigeria. Meanwhile, in the long-run, monetary policy rate and deposit rate enhance real income growth, while Treasury bill rate and cash reserve ratio negatively affect output growth of the Nigerian economy. On the policy front, there is need for the apex bank to harmonize the expansionary part of the monetary policy with the contractionary part during the implementation process of the recent Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) in 2017 aimed at turning the slump situation around and also projecting a strong growth rate in GDP at 4.5%.

Factors driving IPO variability: evidence from Pakistan stock exchange

PurposeThe objectives of this study are twofold. First, it intends to investigate the symmetric link between initial public offering (IPO) variability and the determinants of the stock market index, treasury bill rate, inflation, GDP growth rate and foreign direct investment. Second, this study intends to examine the asymmetric link between IPO variability and the aforementioned determinants, namely the stock market index, treasury bill rate, inflation, GDP growth rate and foreign direct investment.Design/methodology/approachData from 1992 to 2018 were gathered from the country of Pakistan in order to achieve the above objectives. Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests were employed to determine the data's stationarity properties. The Auto Regressive Distributive Lags (ARDL) model was utilized to examine the symmetric links, and the Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model (NARDL) was employed to determine the asymmetric links. While the long-run co-integration was examined using the ARDL bound test, the short-run dynamics were tested using the error correction method (ECM).FindingsThe macroeconomic variables of the stock market index, treasury bill rate, inflation, GDP growth rate and foreign direct investment are found to pose significant short-run and long-run symmetric and asymmetric effects on IPO variability. These results indicate the significance of the aforementioned variables in enhancing IPO variability. The findings also demonstrate the typical reactions of inflation, GDP and FDI towards negative and positive shocks in IPO variability and inflation. This evidence implies that Pakistan's poor capital market development is reflected in the country's weak macroeconomic factors. At the same time, the reduced IPO variability in the country also reflects the lack of confidence among prospective issuers and investors due to Pakistan's weak macroeconomic indicators.Originality/valueThis is the first study of its kind to properly investigate the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the macroeconomic variables on Pakistan's IPO variability.

Effect of Monetary Policy on the Nigerian Stock Market: A Smooth Transition Autoregressive Approach

This paper examines the nonlinear effect of monetary policy decisions on the performance of the Nigerian Stock Exchange market, by employing the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model on monthly data from 2013 M4 to 2019 M12 for All Share Index and monetary policy instrument. This study considers the two regimes characterizing the stock market, which are the lower regime (the bear market) and the upper regime (the bull market). The results show evidence of nonlinear effect of monetary policy on the stock exchange market. Monetary policy rate, money supply, lagged monetary policy rate and lagged treasury bill rate are found to have significant positive effects on the stock exchange market in the lower regime while current treasury bill rate shows a negative effect. In the upper regime, money supply and lagged treasury bill rate have significant negative effect on the stock market. The current treasury bill rate is found to have a positive effect on the stock exchange market. It is recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should maintain a stable money supply growth that is consistent with increased activities in the Nigerian stock market.

EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON TRADING VOLUMES OF MANUFACTURING AND ALLIED COMPANIES LISTED IN NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to establish the effect of macroeconomic factors on stocks trading volumes of manufacturing and allied companies listed in Nairobi Securities Exchange. 
 Materials and Methods: The research adopted a quantitative descriptive design that focuses on nine manufacturing and allied companies listed in NSE and make up in the list of 25-share index companies. The nine manufacturing and allied companies were selected through purposive sampling techniques, where samples were selected based specific factors. The data used in the research was collected from Central Bank of Kenya, Nairobi Security Exchange and Kenya Bureau of Statistics. This research employed a panel data analysis using STATA software. Treasury bill rate was dropped from the model due to multicollinearity.
 Results: The analysis found that there was a negative relationship between inflation on trading volume, exchange rate had a negative correlation with stock trading, lending rate had a negative correlation with stock trading volume of manufacturing and allied companies listed in the Nairobi Stock Exchange. 
 Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommends the government should initiate policies that will lower the lending rate in Kenya as lower lending rate may translate to higher stock trading volumes. Further studies should research on other factors affecting stock trade volume which may include the value of the stocks and the information size in the market.

Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Performance in Nepal

This paper examines co-integrating relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market performance in Nepal using time series data for the period 1987/88 to 2019/20. This study has used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to identify the co-integrating relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market performance. The stock market performance is measured by market capitalization which is considered as dependent variable and selected macroeconomic factors such as broad money supply measured by M2, economic growth measured by gross domestic product (GDP) and interest rate measured by 91-days Treasury bill rate are considered as explanatory variables. ARDL bounds test reveals that stock market performance is co-integrated with macroeconomic variables. Similarly, result of this paper shows the significant positive impact of economic growth. Further, finding reports a significant negative effect of broad money supply and interest rate on performance of Nepalese stock market in long-run. Finally, this paper concludes that disequilibrium of stock market performance in short-run is corrected by GDP, M2 and IR in the long-run. The policy implication of this paper is in formulation of capital market policy, monetary policy, financial policy and economic policy. Stock market policy makers should consider macroeconomic variables while formulating capital market policy for the better performance of stock market in Nepal.

A mixture autoregressive model based on Gaussian and Student’s t-distributions

Abstract We introduce a new mixture autoregressive model which combines Gaussian and Student’s t mixture components. The model has very attractive properties analogous to the Gaussian and Student’s t mixture autoregressive models, but it is more flexible as it enables to model series which consist of both conditionally homoscedastic Gaussian regimes and conditionally heteroscedastic Student’s t regimes. The usefulness of our model is demonstrated in an empirical application to the monthly U.S. interest rate spread between the 3-month Treasury bill rate and the effective federal funds rate.

The Relationship between Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Evidence from the Turkish Economy

The developments in the US housing and real estate sectors played an important role during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The findings of previous theoretical and empirical studies have revealed that there was a strong relationship between the expansionary monetary policy that included high liquidity and low interest rates in the US economy and the housing price bubble, which played a central role in the development of the crisis. These developments have revealed the importance of the relationship between monetary policies and asset prices.In this direction, the present study aims to conduct an empirical investigation of the relationship between monetary policies and asset prices in the Turkish economy. In line with this purpose, the SVAR approach was used in the study. The period included within the scope of the present study was determined as 2011:5-2018:5. According to the findings obtained, it is observed that the only significant reaction of monetary policies to the variables included within the model was to real effective exchange rate and treasury bill rate. Additionally, the effects of monetary policies on real effective exchange rate, housing price index, BIST 100 index, treasury bill rate and interest of government securities were found to be significant.

A Comparative Analysis of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates between the BRICS and G7 Countries

This paper examines the predictive ability of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates in the BRICS and G7 countries by relating each country’s monthly 3‑month Treasury bill rate to 10‑year government bond rates, from May 2003 to May 2018. The panel ARDL model, applying the mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG), and dynamic fixed effects (DFE) estimators, is employed to compare the short‑ and long‑run relationships in both groups of countries. The results show that the expectations hypothesis holds in both BRICS and G7 country groups. In the long run, the short‑term interest rate is able to predict the long-term interest rate in both the BRICS and G7 countries. Interest rates in BRICS indicate rapid adjustment back to the long‑run equilibrium, while the adjustment is sluggish in the G7 block. Based on the findings of the study, the sluggish adjustment to the equilibrium in the G7 gives the impression that the financial crisis had an impact on the term structure of interest rates as the G7 countries were directly affected by the crisis.

Systematic risk and performance of stock market in Kenya

Stock prices in Kenya have been experiencing drastic volatility over the years. In the year 2015 alone, the value of the listed companies shrunk by about 2.5 billion USD, representing about 25% of the national government annual budget. The performance of the stock market is an important proxy of a country’s economic environment. Rational investors constantly value and revise their portfolio composition so as to maximize their wealth. Whereas effectively diversified portfolio minimizes the unsystematic risk, systematic risks cannot be managed by simple diversification. Investors, therefore, need to understand the effect of these systematic risks on the stock performance. The study sought to determine the relationship between systematic risk factors using Inflation and interest rates and the performance of the stock market in Kenya. The study adopted a positivist philosophy and employed a correlation research design. The study targeted all the stock listed in the Nairobi Securities exchange. The study was underpinned by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Arbitrage Pricing theory, and used integration analysis to establish the relationships between the variables of the study. The study found a significant long-run positive relationship between interest rate, inflation, and performance of the stock market in Kenya. Investment firms, the financial analyst should use past data on 91 Treasury bills rate and Inflation, to predict the future performance of stock exchange for the benefit of investors.

Effect of Monetary Policy on Industrial Growth in Nigeria

Monetary policy is one of the regulatory measures of the government to checkmate the money supply in the economy in order to achieve the desired level of prices, employment, output, and boost the industrial sector growth. Industrialization has always constituted a major focus of development strategy and government policy. One of the engines of industrialization is enhancing manufacturing sector capacity; this study adopted manufacturing sector output to examine the effect of monetary policy on industrial growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2019. Data for the study were collected from the CBN Statistical bulletin, 2019 edition. A multiple regression model was developed and the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression technique employed for data analysis. The results showed that Open Market Operation (OMO) measured by Treasury bill rate had positive and significant effect on the Nigerian Manufacturing Domestic Sector Gross Product; Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has a positive and significant effect on the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector Gross Domestic Product; and Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has a negative and significant effect on the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector Gross Domestic Product. The study concludes that monetary policy is a veritable tool for enhancing industrial sector growth in Nigeria. It was recommended that the monetary authority should ensure a lower MPR that can drive up investment and thus boost growth of the industry.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Stock Market Uncertainty: Some Further Evidence From Pakistan

The paper provides an updated evidence of the linkage between stock market and macroeconomic factors in Pakistan. The sample period is from January 2011 to November 2017. Macroeconomic variables used are money supply, exchange rate, treasury bill rate, inflation and industrial production. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have been used to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on stock market return and stock market volatility. Findings suggest that macroeconomic factors have an impact on stock market volatility. The fluctuations in inflation and money supply negatively influence the volatility of stock market returns. In contrast, industrial production positively affects the fluctuations of stock market returns. The findings are important for shareholders, investors, regulatory authorities and policymakers.

Dynamics of Money Market Interest Rates in Ghana: Time‐Frequency Analysis of Volatility Spillovers

AbstractAs the second longest practicing inflation targeting economy in Africa, it is of interest to investigate the degree to which policy interest rate influences other money market rates so as to gauge the overall effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Ghana. This study evaluates the degree of connectedness among money market rates and also determines the most dominant money market rate(s) in Ghana. The basic finding is that the monetary policy rate has a low‐to‐moderate influence on volatility dynamics of other money market rates in Ghana across historical time‐interval and time‐frequency domains. This is a reflection of a generally weak capability of policy interest rate to drive other market rates in Ghana. Both monetary policy rate and Treasury bill rate are net transmitters of shocks, while interbank, lending and saving rates are net receivers of shocks in the money market. However, the Treasury bill emerges as the largest shock transmitter in the money market, across all forecast horizons and analytical domains. The lending rate is the largest shock recipient in the money market, largely from the Treasury bill rate which suggests ample evidence of fiscal dominance in Ghana. The study accentuates the exigency for monetary and fiscal policies to expeditiously address the domestic structural bottlenecks, especially in the financial sector and the fragile fiscal profile, in order to strengthen policy transmission in Ghana.

MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION CONTROL: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

Inflation is a major problem facing Nigeria as a country today. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), however, has made efforts to fight it using different policy measures, of which monetary policy is one of them. Thus, this study focuses on the impact of monetary policy on inflation control in Nigeria. The study is based on time series data from 1980 to 2019. The Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Johansen’s co-integration test, the Error Correction model (ECM) estimation was employed in the analysis. The variables include – exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply (% GDP), Treasury bill rate and monetary policy rate. The research findings showed that monetary policy has no significant impact on inflation control in Nigeria both in the short – run and long – run. Money supply has negative and insignificant impact on inflation control in Nigeria both in the short – run and long – run. Again, exchange rate has negative and insignificant effect on inflation control in Nigeria both in the short – run and long – run. The Treasury bill rate has negative but significant effect on inflation control in Nigeria in the short – run, while in the long – run it has positive but insignificant effect on inflation control in Nigeria. The study, therefore, recommends that, Government should provide monetary policies that will preferred efficient provider of favourable environment in terms of the implementation of the appropriate monetary policy rate, exchange rate etc in order to attract both domestic and foreign investment which will create employment opportunities for the Nigerian populace and in turn lead to the expansion of the industries in the country.
 
 JEL: E42; E52; E31

Bond yield and crude oil prices predictability

Using long-term government bond yield (LTY), corporate bond yields spread (DFY) and Treasury bill rate (TBL) as the proxies, we find bond yield can effectively predict WTI and Brent spot prices. In-sample analysis indicates that bond yield variables have substantial explanatory power on oil returns, and there are significant Granger causality relationships from LTY and DFY to oil returns. In out-of-sample forecast, bond yield variables defeat historical average benchmark as well as the competing predictors from both statistical and economic perspectives. Moreover, the predictive abilities of bond yield variables can be tremendously enhanced with multivariate prediction methods. We prove that the prediction power of bond yield variables partially stems from their abilities on capturing oil market sentiment. Our findings survive a series of robustness checks.