Electoral uncertainty and the volatility of international capital flows in Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the effects of changing political environment on capital flows and investment decision making especially in developing economies like Nigeria. It utilises structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) and Granger causality test to analyse the objectives of the study. The results indicate that shocks from political events have negative impact on the exchange rate with resultant rising positive treasury bill rates. The implication of these results is that attractiveness of yields in the Nigerian financial market appears to outweigh the political uncertainty consideration by investors during the electioneering periods. Though, these political events have depreciating effects on the foreign exchange market. The study, therefore, recommends that a government that is desirous of achieving optimal capital flows must adopt an appropriate mix of fiscal, structural and monetary policies, before, during and after the electioneering period.