Exchange Rate And Central Bank Intervention In India: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

The existing empirical studies on the effectiveness of RBI intervention in the exchange rate market are based on single equation/GARCH models. Recognizing the interdependence between exchange rate returns, conditional volatility of exchange rate and RBI intervention, this study uses a simultaneous equations framework to examine the efficacy of intervention by RBI. Additionally, we control for the impact of macro-economic fundamental variables and micro-structure variable in our model. The econometric methodology used in the study includes two steps. In the first step, DF-GLS, Ng-Perron and, Lee and Strazicich unit root tests are used to examine the stationarity of the variables. In the second step, the simultaneous equations model is estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM)-IV. This study is based on secondary data at monthly frequency, spreading from 1996:08 to 2016:10. The main findings of the study are as follows. The results of unit root tests suggest that all variables included in the analysis are stationary. The system GMM-IV estimates of the model indicate that exchange rate returns are influenced by RBI intervention, output growth differential, money supply growth differential, stock market returns, capital flows, EUR-USD exchange rate returns, change in trade balance differential and order flow. Additionally, the estimates of exchange rate volatility equation suggest that RBI intervention significantly decreases exchange rate volatility. Further, we find that volatility in capital flows has significant and positive impact on exchange rate volatility. The estimates of the central bank intervention equation suggests that exchange rate returns have a significant and negative impact on RBI intervention in foreign exchange rate market. We also find evidence for the presence of asymmetry in RBI intervention. The key implications of the study indicate that RBI intervention is effective in stabilizing the Indian exchange rate market in the face of both domestic and external shocks. Furthermore, exchange rate returns are significantly affected by RBI intervention, macro-economic variables and micro-structure variable. The findings of this study may be useful for formulating India's monetary policy.