Transnistrian Conflict Research Articles

“Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic”: Genesis of Issue and Influence on the International Relations

An important and urgent issue in the context of ensuring European and international security is the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. Despite the considerable number of works on the Transnistrian issue, they are mainly devoted to the history and features of the conflict development. At the same time, problem of the present state of the territory and future forecasts are not explored properly. Therefore, the article aims to determine the historical background and stages of the conflict, to characterize the current state of the separatist region and to provide forecasts for the future situation. Methods used for the research include: content analysis, statistical, historical-genetic and the analytic-prognostic methods.
 The article analyzes the basic historical prerequisites and causes of the Transnistrian conflict, which are divided into four blocks: historical, ethno-national, economic and geopolitical. The stages of conflict confrontation and the negotiation process in 5+2 format, the positions of the participating countries are explored. The process of conflict peaceful settlement began after the end of the armed confrontation phase in 1992. It is characterized by considerable activity of external actors, but has not led to significant consequences. A description of the current state of the so-called “Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic” is given. Particularly noteworthy is the ever-growing role of the Russian Federation, which traditionally views the territory as an area of its imperial national interests and uses this “frozen conflict” as a lever of influence over the pro-European Republic of Moldova. The main scenarios are highlighted: reintegration into the mother country; inclusion territory of the “de facto state” into patron state; achieving international recognition of sovereignty; maintaining the status quo.
 It is concluded that federalization is the most possible forecast for the Transnistrian conflict, because Moldova already has similar experience in Gagauzia. But at the present stage we are observing the status quo.

The Republic of Moldova and Transnistria: origin issues and ways of conflict resolution

This article outlines the genesis of the Transnistrian conflict, focusing on perceptions inside and outside Moldova and on a settlement process that has brought no substantial results. The lack of solution to the Transnistria issue poses wider questions about the usefulness of existing conflict resolution formats and processes. The approaches to resolving the conflict have created a misleading position that the issue is purely internal to Moldova, with Russia playing the role of impartial mediator and provider of peacekeeping forces. The Moldovan experience indicates that a sustainable solution to such conflicts, based on respect for international law and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe principles and commitments, is impossible without a greater emphasis on the accountability of Russia. In this way the key to solving the conflict in line with international law and OSCE principles lies in Moscow and less in Chisinau or Tiraspol.

The search for a comprehensive political settlement in Transnistria: explaining the failure to reach agreement

ABSTRACT This article proposes an evaluation of conflict settlement proposals in the case of the Transnistrian conflict and is concerned with the following research question: What explains the failure of international mediation in the Transnistrian conflict? It proposes an analysis of the failure of the Kozak Memorandum by assessing the value of scholarly arguments that centre on concepts such as ‘ripeness’ and ‘spoilers’ in explaining the failure of third-party mediation. It argues that competing attempts by external mediators to propose a solution to this conflict have created internal pressures for both Moldova and Transnistria, deepening the existing divisions between primary parties and hindering the possibility of delivering a mutually acceptable solution. 1 1 The research leading to these results has received funding from the EEA Grants 2014–2021, under Project ‘Interdisciplinary Research on Russia’s Geopolitics in the Black Sea and the Arctic Ocean’, contract no. 35/2021.

РАССТАНОВКА СИЛ В РЕГИОНЕ ПРИДНЕСТРОВСКОГО КОНФЛИКТА В КОНТЕКСТЕ СПЕЦИАЛЬНОЙ ВОЕННОЙ ОПЕРАЦИИ РОССИИ НА УКРАИНЕ

The article is an analysis of the alignment of forces in the region of the Transnistrian conflict in the context of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The author proceeds from the fact that around the Transnistrian conflict, international relations have developed into a kind of subsystem, which is influenced by events and significant changes in international relations at regional and global levels. The purpose of the article is to determine the balance of power in the conflict region and assess the dynamics of transformation of the sub-regional situation in the context of a special military operation The following research tasks were solved in the study: the balance of power in the region of the Transnistrian conflict was characterized on the eve of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, the changes in that balance in the course of the operation were assessed, and the prospects for resolving the Transnistrian conflict in its context were identified. Through the use of system analysis, balance of power theory, geopolitical approach, historical and comparative analysis as a methodological basis, the author comes to the following conclusions. The existing alignment of forces in the region of the Transnistrian conflict is distinguished by the extremely pronounced position of the actors, divided into two “camps”, in relation to each other and the prospects for resolving the Transnistrian conflict. The interests of regional actors are consistent – in the subsystem of international relations in the region of the Transnistrian conflict, there are practically no actors that would have an ambivalent geopolitical orientation. A characteristic feature of the sub-regional situation is that, under the conditions of Russia’s special military operation it is maximally included in the regional and global context.

UNFREEZING 'THE TRANSNISTRIA CONFLICT' FROM THE LENS OF REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX THEORY

Transnistrian is a frozen geopolitical conflict extends back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the formation of an independent Moldovan state. However, there has been little real movement toward a long-term conflict resolution until recently. The aim of this study is to find out why, despite the efforts of the European Union, the Transnistrian conflict remains inactive and there is no clear prospect for resolving it. To answer this question, the integrated theory of regional security by Buzan and Weaver has been used. The results of this study show that Transnistria is part of a regional security complex under Russian influence, and its intersection with the security complex designed in the Eastern Partnership plan does not allow the EU to resolve the conflict. The difference in the power structures in the two complexes has an effect on the failure of this process. The matrix of regional security complexes in this area is centralized with sub-branches of superior power and superior institutions, and this has added to the complexity of conflict resolution.

Covid-19 pandemic – a new challenge for the national security of the Republic of Moldova on the transnistrian conflict settlement dimension

Ensuring national security of the Republic of Moldova on the Transnistrian conflict settlement dimension during the COVID-19 global pandemic determined the need to create and implement a new paradigm for tackling the settlement process of the conflict in the Eastern districts of the Republic of Moldova in the context of reshaping the geopolitical architecture of the security environment in the South-East Europe. The lack of substantial results of the talks concerning the identification of feasible and sustainable solutions for the Transnistrian conflict is due to Moldovan authorities’ mistaken vision concerning the real interests of the actors involved in these talks that diff er from the preferences referred to in the offi cial rhetoric. COVID-19 pandemic tempered the actions of all political actors involved in the „5+2” format negotiation process that have been limited only to some sporadic declarations on the need to settle the confl ict from the Eastern districts of the Republic of Moldova and on the importance to carry out the provisions of the initiative to enhance the confi dence-building measures between the two banks of the Nistru river, integrated in the „small steps” policy, actions that do not produced tangible results on the Transnistrian confl ict settlement. The research of the issue of the Transnistrian confl ict settlement process in the condition of the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought about the decrease of the level of stability in the security area, emphasizes the reduced geopolitical potential of the Republic of Moldova in the current negotiation format that defi nes the insuffi cient level of the institutional capacity of the national security system to ensure the territorial integrity jeopardized by the geopolitical confl ict in the Eastern districts.

The Alliance for European Integration and the Transnistrian Conflict Settlement

The Alliance for European Integration and the Transnistrian Conflict SettlementThis article examines the policy of the Alliance for European Integration – the coalition in power in Moldova since mid-2009 – with regard to the Transnistrian conflict settlement. This paper presents the principles of AEI's policy, the motivations behind it and its implementation, including results to date. The core of the Moldovan authorities’ approach is identified as the gradual creation of positive on-the-ground conditions, which aim to facilitate Moldova and Transnistria reaching a final conflict settlement. In general, the AEI’s policy is evaluated in a positive light, since it has potential to bring better results than the confrontational activities of the previous Communist government. However, the article also reveals some of the policy’s shortcomings. Sojusz na rzecz Integracji Europejskiej wobec konfliktu naddniestrzańskiegoW artykule poddano analizie politykę Sojuszu na rzecz Integracji Europejskiej – koalicji rządzącej Republiką Mołdowy od połowy 2009 roku – mającą na celu uregulowanie konfliktu naddniestrzańskiego. Przedstawiono jej założenia, determinanty, realizację i dotychczasowe rezultaty. Za najważniejsze zadanie władz mołdawskich autor uznaje stopniowe stwarzanie warunków, które mają ułatwić Mołdowie i Naddniestrzu ostateczne rozwiązanie konfliktu pomiędzy nimi. Polityka Sojuszu została oceniona zasadniczo pozytywnie. Może bowiem przynieść lepsze rezultaty niż konfrontacyjne działania poprzedniego rządu komunistycznego. W artykule wskazano również główne wady polityki prowadzonej przez władze mołdawskie.

Приднестровское урегулирование в контексте геополитической конфронтации

The article deals with the evolution of the Transnistrian conflict resolution through the prism of geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West (primarily, the European Union), its current state and prospects, taking into account the development of the situation after February 24, 2022. Being situated between the two strategic security actors in Europe, Moldova since the early 2000s has become increasingly dependent on the state of their relations, which had a direct impact on the Transnistrian conflict settlement, complicating the chances for its comprehensive resolution. The growth of confrontation between Russia and the EU led to breaks of the negotiation process and its stagnation. Escalation of the Ukrainian crisis increased pressure on Transnistria and complicated military and political risks in the region. In the current circumstances, there is a real danger of “unfreezing” of the protracted Transnistrian conflict, which seemed almost impossible in the previous geopolitical conditions.

Մերձդնեստրի հակամարտություն. ակունք, էություն և հեռանկարներ/Transnistria Conflict: Origin, Nature and Prospects

Although the disintegration of the Soviet Union was relatively peaceful, unlike, for example, another socialist state with confederal structure – Yugoslavia, the independence aspirations of individual regions were often accompanied by armed struggle, which later transformed into "frozen conflicts" and turned into ‘’mines’’ placed under the statehood of a number of post-Soviet countries, thus preventing and hindering their development and threatening the regional stability and peace. The Transnistrian conflict is one of the unresolved conflicts in the post-Soviet territory, the basis of which is the struggle of the minority for the recognition and realization of its right to self-determination. Within the framework of this paper, the origins and essence of the Transnistrian conflict will be presented. Moreover, the gist of all important international agreements related to the conflict are illustrated one by one. Afterwards, parallels are drawn between Transnistria and Gagauzian autonomy: two conflicts that arose due to similar reasons and in the same country, which eventually had different outcomes. At the end of the research, two most likely scenarios are discussed for the further development of the Transnistrian conflict.

Retrospectiva știrilor false asupra evenimentelor din regiunea transnistreană din anul 1992: abordări comparative / Retrospective of false news on events in the Transnistrian region since 1992: comparative approaches

The analysis of the problem of false news and other media constructions is based on quantitative research, which shows the distribution of published materials in Chisinau and the Russian Federation. In these media, the materials addressed the topics regarding the events on the Dniester in 1992 in a negative, neutral or positive way. The qualitative research aims to describe the content of the articles divided into separate thematic blocks, sub-themes, and representation sections. The media construction of the events of the Dniester War in 1992 in the written and online press in the Republic of Moldova is contradictory. The Russian press and the left-wing press contribute to the false and erroneous perception that the phenomenon is known as „Transnistrian conflict” is a civil one, and that it is not Russia but Transnistria that is a „party” to the conflict, that Russia has the status of a neutral mediator and guarantor of the agreements between the parties and the provisions of the Memorandum on normalizing relations between the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria signed in 1997 in Moscow.

Separatismul în spațiul post-sovietic, între seceră și ciocan / Separatism in the post-Soviet space, between the sickle and the hammer

This paper aims to present a comprehensive and complete analysis of the separatist movements from the ex-Soviet space, especially in the Republic of Moldova. The paper focuses on presenting both the national and international context immediately after the fall of the USSR, as well as the factors that determined the apparition of the separatist movements. Multiple causes and effects are paired and presented to expose the chronology that followed the unfolding of those historical events. The paper is split into three main topics: the Transnistrian conflict and its consequences, the Georgian conflict and its aftermath, and the ongoing conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Războiul de pe Nistru versus conflictele înghețate din spațiul post-sovietic / The war on the Dniester versus the frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space

The article discusses the issue of frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space. According to the author, conflicts are a product of the disintegration of the USSR, the declaration of the independence of the former union republics and the adoption of the direction of foreign policies for European integration. In most cases, the conflicts are artificial, because the ex-Soviet space is considered the sphere of interest of the Russian Federation, and the secessionist regions are interested in maintaining subordination to Moscow. Failure to resolve conflicts leads to the consolidation of the status quo in the territories. Resolving the Transnistrian conflict, but also other conflicts in the ex-Soviet space requires the internationalization of the process by actively attracting G-7 states, UN structures, the EU and the internationalization of peacekeeping missions. An important requirement for the Republic of Moldova is the change of the political class, which will want to solve the problem of territorial integrity.

Războiul transnistrean reflectat în manualele de istorie din România / The Transnistrian war reflected in the history textbooks in Romania

The creation of history textbooks in the post-December period took into account the increase of quality in pre-university education by developing communication and relationship skills, different historical contents being studied depending on the interests of students. In our analysis, we tried to find out to what extent the authors of the history textbooks were interested in presenting the Transnistrian conflict to the young generation.

Managing the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict according to provisions of legal and institutional framework

The subject of settlement of the Transnistrian conflict is consistently promoted in the context of bilateral contacts with international actors involved in the settlement process – the OSCE, the Russia, the Ukraine, the EU and its member states, as well as the US. In this regard, the immediate and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of the Republic of Moldova of ammunition belonging to the Russian Federation and the foreign military forces that provide their security is likely to stimulate the process of political settlement of the Transnistrian problem. The authorities of the Republic of Moldova focus attention both on obtaining the support of external partners for the reintegration policy promoted by the state, as well as on ensuring common approaches between international actors. Inthe scientific research is mentioned and the institutional framework underlying the system that make up the national security sector of the Republic of Moldova. This sector includes state institutions with a mandate of force for the implementation of the tasks on operational level and on administrative level.

The challenges of the Transnistrian conflict for national security and the European development vector of the Republic of Moldova

In this study, the author intends to investigate the possible threats that affect the national security of the Republic of Moldova in the context of the Russian Federation’s ignorance of the state neutrality status, as explained by the delay in the process of political Regulation of the Transnistrian conflict, caused by the illegal existence of Russian military forces, funding of illegitimate institutions and separatist military structures on the left bank of the Dniester, including providing weapons and military equipment. Looking into these issues, the author particularly stresses that the process of strengthening the stability and security of a vulnerable state on the inside is painstaking and requires efforts both from state institutions, the whole society and international support. In this regard, the Republic of Moldova has undertaken to deepen its relations with the European Union by signing the Association Agreement in June 2014, which provides inter alia for the enhancement of forms of cooperation focused on common interests in the field of security promotion, defense cooperation and crisis management. By this, Moldova has accepted the challenges of aligning to the standards of development of the Community, while also benefiting from the support on behalf of development partners in a variety of domains: political, economic, social, etc. In conclusion, the author notes that in the course of cooperation, it is relevant for the European Union to ensure its security. Thus, the national interests of the Republic of Moldova in relation to certain risks and threats to national security converge with those of the Union. The European Union is politically and financially supportive of the actions that are undertaken to clarify them, but the institutions of the Moldovan State are exclusively responsible for the results of these actions/inactions.

THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL SECURITY ASSURANCE ON THE SOCIO-POLITICAL MODERNIZATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

Global security, as a concept, has developed on the basis of international legislation on the national security of states, but also on international humanitarian law, which focus on the protection of global harmony and sustainable development. The national and international political system, in the phase of overcoming crises, in correlation with the challenges and threats to global security, acquires new valences and functions, given that international bodies, supported by national state structures, are forced to face the intensification of evolution. alignment of the world balance. As current threats of a global nature, but manifested locally and in connection with the national security of the Republic of Moldova were identified as: poverty, economic underdevelopment and energy dependence, transnistrian conflict, tensions in the area and foreign military presence, external coercion, the criminogenic factor, corruption, the demographic problem and the exacerbation of the migration phenomenon, population health, natural disasters, environmental pollution, technogenic accidents, information insecurity, instability of the financial-banking system.

Роль Придністровського конфлікту в молдовсько-російських відносинах

Along with independence, the Republic of Moldova has acquired a problem that throughout the period under study had a negative impact on the development of domestic and foreign policy – the Transnistrian conflict which is classified as a “frozen conflict”. The aim of article is a research of the role and place of the Transnistrian conflict between Moldova and the Russian Federation which was originally involved in the process and its implications. Among the tasks of the work is to identify the main factors influencing this problem. Russia's position has effectively frozen the status quo over the Transnistrian conflict. With its support Russia assured Transnistria of the possibility of success in creating a state. Russian troops on the territory of Transnistria became weapons against Moldova. The more Moldova demanded that Russia withdraw them, the more the latter realized the importance of this argument. Despite numerous commitments, Russia is not withdrawing troops from Moldova because it wants to maintain its presence in the region by any means. The Transnistrian problem has a negative impact on Moldova's foreign policy for which the return of lost territory is one of the main goals. The existence of a conflict zone has a negative impact on Moldova's European aspirations, and the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria causes tensions in bilateral relations between Moldova and Russia, the EU and Russia, and has a negative impact on Moldova's neighbors in the New Eastern Europe. Progress in discussing the constitutional status of Transnistria is unlikely as is the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria – the two main issues at the heart of the conflict. Russian troops are the only pillar of the Transnistrian regime and the main obstacle to achieving peace in the region. Even if Western economic pressure increases, the Transnistrian regime is unlikely to agree to democratization and demilitarization as it is a direct threat to its existence. Therefore, any Moldovan strategy has no chance of success because for Transnistria all “red lines” have already been passed.

Transnistrian Settlement Process: Contribution of Ukraine and Conclusions for Donbas

The article highlights the role and place of Ukraine, which has just celebrated the 30th anniversary of its independence’s resumption, in the Transnistrian settlement process. The article contains an analysis of the first state peacekeeping experience of Ukraine and updated plans for further steps in light of the national interests of our state. The author of the article argues that an analysis of the mistakes made during the settlement will help prevent a repetition of such failures in countering Russian aggression in Donbas. Refusal of Russian ‘peacekeepers’ in Transnistria and reorientation to the mechanisms of international observation missions are to meet the world peacekeeping criteria, as well as the interests and positions of Moldova, Ukraine, the European Union, the United States and the OSCE as an international organisation responsible for security issues in the European region. In particular, the article notes that Ukraine and Moldova are interested in stabilising the situation in Transnistria, as it will reduce the region’s criminality, significantly limit the flow of smuggled goods to Ukraine, and put a barrier against illegal migration to the EU. The fact of an active conflict so close to Ukrainian borders becomes a potential threat of Ukraine possibly being drawn into a confrontation. The active participation of Ukraine in the peacekeeping process is concurrently of great importance for improving the image of our state in the international arena. The 30-year experience of the Transnistrian settlement process becomes a vivid example for Ukraine of effective counteraction to Russian expansionist intentions. A careful study of the mistakes made by Moldova and Ukraine is imperative to determine our further actions in Donbas. Keywords: Transnistrian conflict, Moldova, national security of Ukraine, Russia, Donbas.

ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ КЕЙСЫ В ПРОЦЕССЕ УРЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ ПРИДНЕСТРОВСКОГО КОНФЛИКТА

The article analyzes the features of the involvement of external actors in the process of resolving the Transnistrian conflict. The authors made an excursion to the genesis of registration of the regional system of relations, which revealed the specifics of the national interests of the world’s leading players in the region. The article also analyzes competition of geopolitical in- terests in the region, representing by its nature the reflection of the transform- ing basics of modern world order. Despite the term of Euro-Atlantic solidarity established in the scientific community, however, it is impossible to talk on the agreed position of the European and North American communities in ap- proaches to regional processes. The nature of the settlement of the Transnistri- an relations reflects an incomplete coincidence of the positions of the European Union and the United States in the process of resolving the conflict . At the same time, attempts to resolve the conflict bring to the surface the Romanian factor which every year is growing and exerting a great influence on Moldova both in the trade and economic sphere and in the political one. The authors mark a special place of the Russian Federation in the regional system of rela- tions. Possessing an extensive system of national interests in the region, Russia performs the functions of the guarantor of peace and stability. Moreover the creation of an effective system for the protection of its compatriots in Trans- nistria is of particular importance for the Russian leadership. The author’s article presents the Moldovan political forces – conductors of the interests of certain geopolitical cases. It reflects the tools of influence of external actors on the regional relationship architecture. Based on the analysis the authors draw conclusions about the presence of additional obstacles in the way to ensuring the inviolability of the security architecture in the region.

Пріоритетні напрями зовнішньої політики Республіки Молдова: еволюція та перспективи

The article analyzes the main normative documents, according to which the foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova is formed. The main factors influencing the development of the country's foreign policy are considered. Also the main threats and challenges to the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity have been identified. Changes in the declared priorities of Moldova 's foreign policy, especially on the european and eurasian vectors, have been studied. Since declaring independence in 1991, the country has inherited the same problems that are common to most post-Soviet countries, namely: separatism of certain territories, bifurcation of society, some seek to a european future, and others - nostalgia for the Soviet past, economic imbalance , political immaturity and corruption of elites; legal nihilism, etc. This was reflected in the basic documents designed to shape the foreign policy of the republic. The purpose of the study is to analyze the regulatory frameworkof the foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova since independence to the present time, taking into account current trends in international relations. The Constitution, acts that should ensure the functioning system of the national security and defense, the Concept of Foreign Policy of the Republic of Moldova are the main documents governing the country's foreign policy. Since independence, there have been changes in setting Moldova's foreign policy priorities. They concerned issues of ensuring the national security of the country, identified threats and challenges facing it. The need for European integration and active participation in the processes of regional political and economic cooperation was recognized. At the same time, the development of a new foreign policy strategy remains relevant, that would meet the current conditions of the international situation, the challenges associated with hybrid threats in the post-Soviet space; would take into account new trends in the relations of the Republic of Moldova with the EU, the USA, etc. At the same time, this document should offer new ways of international assistance in overcoming the country's socio-economic problems, solving the Transnistrian conflict, and so on.