Abstract
ABSTRACT This article proposes an evaluation of conflict settlement proposals in the case of the Transnistrian conflict and is concerned with the following research question: What explains the failure of international mediation in the Transnistrian conflict? It proposes an analysis of the failure of the Kozak Memorandum by assessing the value of scholarly arguments that centre on concepts such as ‘ripeness’ and ‘spoilers’ in explaining the failure of third-party mediation. It argues that competing attempts by external mediators to propose a solution to this conflict have created internal pressures for both Moldova and Transnistria, deepening the existing divisions between primary parties and hindering the possibility of delivering a mutually acceptable solution. 1 1 The research leading to these results has received funding from the EEA Grants 2014–2021, under Project ‘Interdisciplinary Research on Russia’s Geopolitics in the Black Sea and the Arctic Ocean’, contract no. 35/2021.
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