Disease Transmission Research Articles

Threshold dynamics of a reaction–advection–diffusion schistosomiasis epidemic model with seasonality and spatial heterogeneity

Most water-borne disease models ignore the advection of water flows in order to simplify the mathematical analysis and numerical computation. However, advection can play an important role in determining the disease transmission dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the long-term dynamics of a periodic reaction–advection–diffusion schistosomiasis model and explore the joint impact of advection, seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on the transmission of the disease. We derive the basic reproduction number R0\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\mathcal {R}}_0$$\\end{document} and show that the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive when R0<1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\mathcal {R}}_0<1$$\\end{document} whereas there is a positive endemic periodic solution and the system is uniformly persistent in a special case when R0>1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\mathcal {R}}_0>1$$\\end{document}. Moreover, we find that R0\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\mathcal {R}}_0$$\\end{document} is a decreasing function of the advection coefficients which offers insights into why schistosomiasis is more serious in regions with slow water flows.

Putting gender upfront in One Health AMR research and implementation strategies

Abstract Despite a gendered approach being increasingly applied across global health challenges, this has been a notable oversight in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) research. Failing to consider the complexity of human behaviours and roles in healthcare, animal production, and environmental settings compromises programmatic effectiveness and sustainability, while risking entrenching or widening existing social disparities. Research demonstrates how gender norms influence health-related behaviours across various sectors, from accessing healthcare to livestock rearing, with strong implications for antimicrobial stewardship and zoonotic disease transmission. The sparse literature connecting and investigating gender, equity and AMR – especially in a One Health context – hampers our ability to comprehensively address this global issue. The responsibility is however shared. This commentary advocates for funders to propel the inclusion of gender and equity-focused perspectives in AMR research and to set expectations in research landscapes, thus fostering a more equitable global health landscape and strengthening strategies against AMR. We outline our rationale and recommendations for other funders to support an ecosystem in AMR that supports gender and equity as a common aspect of AMR research and not an exception. One Health impact statement While AMR is increasingly recognised as a One Health challenge encompassing humans, animals, plants and the environment, sector-specific and cross-sectoral solutions needed to address AMR too often lack the multidisciplinary approach needed for a holistic response to this challenge. To date, AMR research has been largely biomedical, with limited social investigation including on gender and its interplay with factors that drive AMR in different settings such as healthcare, community or farm settings. Intentionally integrating gender analysis that informs AMR research design and implementation across sectors, including with supportive research funding opportunities, will help build the evidence base on how research projects and public programs should integrate and address gender disparities in AMR across the One Health spectrum. This is needed to ensure contextually relevant gender-informed solutions with sustainable impact.

UV-mediated photochemical synthesis and investigation of the antiviral properties of Silver nanoparticle-polyvinyl butyral nanocomposite coatings as a novel antiviral material with high stability and activity

Effectively developing new antimicrobial surfaces for viral diseases requires considerable research, money, and time. Moreover, new species of microorganisms and pathogens are constantly appearing or entering from other regions, which can cause epidemics or pandemics. The ongoing presence of SARS-CoV-2 underscores the need to develop new antimicrobial materials. In this context, a novel UV-irradiated photochemical in-situ synthesis method is introduced for producing durable, long-lasting antiviral silver-polymer (AgNP-PVB) nanocomposite coatings. These coatings are intended to mitigate infectious disease transmission across various frequently touched surfaces, such as door handles, keypads, bank encoders, telephone locks, lift buttons, etc. Additionally, the significance of the size and concentration of AgNP in influencing the physical and antiviral properties of these nanocomposite coatings is illustrated. Detailed studies of AgNP-PVB coatings were conducted using X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy (AFM), and ultraviolet-visible-near-infrared spectroscopy, and contact angle measurements. The antiviral properties of the coatings were evaluated by a one-step reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction (one-step qRT‒PCR) using synthetic SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Raman spectra signatures confirm AgNPs in the PVB matrix by matching identified peaks in X-ray diffractograms. AFM analysis revealed a reduction in AgNP size in the nanocomposite with an increase in the irradiation duration from 5 to 30 min. Spectroscopic results corresponding to AFM measurements highlighted specific wavelengths related to different AgNP size ranges. Contact angle measurements suggest that antiviral activity can be predicted by calculating the surface free energy (SFE) of the sample. As the SFE value increases, antiviral activity decreases. Nanocomposite coatings (with concentrations of 150, 200, 500, and 1000 ppm AgNP) are effective in reducing the activity of SARS-CoV-2, indicating their potential as long-acting preventive agents against viral infections. A methodology incorporating a specialized algorithm was devised for the application of the investigated coatings, which also integrates 3D scanning and printing techniques for fabricating complex geometry flexible protective cover. Subsequently, this coating was applied to produce a protective cover for the widely utilized public object, the door handle, employing 3D printing technology. As a result of the work, a long-term, durable antiviral AgNP-PVB nanocomposite coating with varying AgNP sizes (ranging from 15 to 118 nm) and concentrations (150, 200, 500, and 1000 ppm) was successfully developed.

Combining transinfected Wolbachia and a genetic sexing strain to control Aedes albopictus in laboratory-controlled conditions.

The global expansion of Aedes albopictus has stimulated the development of environmentally friendly methods aiming to control disease transmission through the suppression of natural vector populations. Sterile male release programmes are currently being deployed worldwide, and are challenged by the availability of an efficient sex separation which can be achieved mechanically at the pupal stage and/or by artificial intelligence at the adult stage, or through genetic sexing, which allows separating males and females at an early development stage. In this study, we combined the genetic sexing strain previously established based on the linkage of dieldrin resistance to the male locus with a Wolbachia transinfected line. For this, we introduced either the wPip-I or the wPip-IV strain from Culex pipiens in an asymbiotic Wolbachia-free Ae. albopictus line. We then measured the penetrance of cytoplasmic incompatibility and life-history traits of both transinfected lines, selected the wPip-IV line and combined it with the genetic sexing strain. Population suppression experiments demonstrated a 90% reduction in population size and a 50% decrease in hatching rate. Presented results showed that such a combination has a high potential in terms of vector control but also highlighted associated fitness costs, which should be reduced before large-scale field assay.

Monitoring and Evaluation of the Use of Personal Protective Equipment (Ppe) Among Nurses in Post Pandemic Educational Hospitals

Use personal protective equipment (PPE) to prevent the chain of disease transmission, especially Covid-19. This study aims to monitor and evaluate the use of PPE among nurses who work in inpatient and emergency rooms at teaching hospitals in Malang. This research uses a cross-sectional comparative analysis approach. Data were collected using hospital SOP observation sheets by the Minister of Health Regulation 27 of 2017. Using a purposive sampling technique, the sample size was 82 nurses, divided into inpatient and emergency rooms. Data analysis uses descriptive and Chi-square to analyze differences in work area use of PPE (α= 0.05). The study's results showed differences in compliance and level of risk of exposure for nurses in using PPE in emergency departments and inpatient rooms (p-value=0.009). Emergency department nurses use PPE more often according to SOP, which has a higher exposure risk than inpatient nurses.

Causes, Impacts and Mitigation Measures of Human Large Mammal Conflict in Estie Densa Forest Reserve, Estie District, Northern Ethiopia

Human-wildlife conflict is a significant threat to the continued survival of many species and the livelihood of humans. This study aims to assess the conflict between humans and mammals in Estie Densa Forest Reserve, located in Estie Woreda. Currently, the forest reserve faces many problems like crop damage, disease transmission, livestock depredation, and even loss of human life. So, the study generates general information about human mammals conflict and provides baseline information for other researchers. Selection of 95 respondents from local communities through purposive sampling. The Chi-Square Test was employed to determine the significance of differences across the three Villages, and the results were presented in the form of tables and percentages. Crop raiding and livestock depredation have been proven the primary drivers of human-mammal conflict and are statistically significant among the Villages (P≤0.05). Anibus Baboon, Wild Pig, and Common Jackal were the major drivers of the conflict, and had statistical difference among Villages (P≤0.05). Property Loss, and Wildlife Loss covered more than 91% of the total impact perceived as a result of human mammals conflict, and statistically significant (P≤0.05). Livestock guarding (using dogs and shepherds; 50.52%) was the most efficient approach for alleviating livestock depredation and disease transmission from wildlife to livestock and vice versa. While fencing and crop guarding (35.79%) were second in terms of mitigation, but ranked first in terms of reducing agricultural damage caused by wildlife. There should be better awareness of the value and significance of wild animals, the ecology, tourism, and overall conservation of wild mammals.

Ptičja influenca u divljih kanida

The risk of cross-species transmission of infectious diseases and zoonoses has increased due to the adaptive evolution of pathogens and anthropogenic landscape changes. A current example is the avian influenza (AI) virus, which can infect not only avian species but also mammals. In these species, infections are often associated with severe neurological symptoms. AI viruses are primarily not well adapted to mammalian hosts and are not efficiently transmitted among them. To accomplish this, AI viruses must acquire adaptations or mutations that contribute to replication efficiency and virulence in mammals. The exact combination and interaction of mutations that result in optimal adaptation to mammals is still unknown and may vary between host species and virus subtypes. The globally increasing number of infected birds with highly pathogenic AI (HPAI) increases the likelihood of contact between birds and mammals, especially wildlife. One reason for the adaptation of HPAI to mammals is theexposure of wild mammals to infected birds or their carcasses. According to the current data, wild canids, such as red foxes, are among the most infected mammals. However, infections caused by neurotropic viruses, as well as HPAI, have been scarcely studied or not at all in jackals. Since jackals are scavengers that have spread rapidly in Europe and Croatia in recent years, surveillance of AI virus infection in these canids is of the utmost importance. Furthermore, interactions between wild carnivores and domestic animals are of concern, as infections with HPAI pose a public health threat due to the increased risk of mammalian adaptation.

Potential congenital transmission of Chagas disease in the second generation of young pregnant women who attended prenatal in the department of Cordillera, Paraguay

Trypanosoma cruzi es el agente causal de la enfermedad de Chagas. En Paraguay se estima que existen 165.000 personas infectadas y actualmente la principal vía de transmisión es la congénita, con una prevalencia del 5% y con alrededor de 400 niños infectados nacidos por año. El departamento de Cordillera es área endémica de la Región Oriental del país, donde se implementó el Programa de Control Prenatal de Chagas en el año 1995. El objetivo de este estudio fue inferir sobre la potencial transmisión congénita de la enfermedad de Chagas en jóvenes embarazadas de segunda generación de Cordillera que asistieron a su control prenatal en el período 2010-2012, 15 años después de la implementación del Programa de Control Prenatal. De 9.588 embarazadas; 482 fueron seropositivas (5%); 2,74% en el grupo de 12 a 19 años, 4,93% de 20 a 30 años, 8,03% de 31 a 40 años y 16,11% de 41 a 48 años. Para estimar el origen de la transmisión congénita de segunda generación se tuvo en cuenta a las 72 seropositivas de 12 a 19 años y según la base de datos de las respectivas madres 61 eran seropositivas. Con esta información se estima que la transmisión a embarazadas de segunda generación de 12 a 19 años fue congénita en un 85% indicando una transmisión congénita muy significativa en la población de estudio. Esta información ayudaría al Programa Nacional de Chagas en el fortalecimiento del control de la transmisión congénita de la enfermedad de Chagas en el país.

The effects of public health and social measures (PHSM) implemented during the COVID‐19 pandemic: An overview of systematic reviews

AbstractIntroductionTo systematically review the effectiveness and unintended health and socioeconomic consequences of public health and social measures (PHSM) aimed at reducing the scale and risk of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19).MethodsThis review followed guidance about overviews of reviews in the Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions and used the Epistemonikos database's COVID‐19 Living Overview of Evidence repository as a primary search source. Methodological quality was evaluated using the Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR 2) checklist.ResultsA total of 94 reviews were included, of which eight (9%) had “moderate” to “high” confidence ratings on the AMSTAR 2. Of 16 reviews (17%) reporting applying the GRADE framework, none found high certainty evidence for any of our outcomes of interest. Across the 94 reviews, the most frequently examined PHSM were personal protection (n = 18, 19%). Within multicomponent interventions, so‐called “lockdown” was the most frequently examined component (n = 39, 41%). The most frequently reported outcome category was non‐COVID‐19‐related health outcomes (n = 58, 62%). Only five (5%) reviews reported on socioeconomic outcomes. Findings from the eight reviews with moderate or high confidence ratings on AMSTAR 2 are narratively summarized. There is low‐certainty evidence that multicomponent interventions may reduce the transmission of COVID‐19 in different settings. For active surveillance and response measures, low‐certainty evidence suggests that routine testing of residents and staff in long‐term care facilities may reduce the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among residents. We found very low‐certainty evidence about the effectiveness of personal protection measures, travel‐related control measures, and environmental measures. Unintended consequences were rarely examined by those eight reviews.ConclusionWe found predominantly low‐ to very low‐certainty evidence regarding the effectiveness and unintended consequences of PHSM in controlling the risk and scale of COVID‐19 transmission. There is a need to improve the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews.

Synthesizing environmental, epidemiological and vector and parasite genetic data to assist decision making for disease elimination.

We present a framework for identifying when conditions are favourable for transmission of vector-borne diseases between communities by incorporating predicted disease prevalence mapping with landscape analysis of sociological, environmental and host/parasite genetic data. We explored the relationship between environmental features and gene flow of a filarial parasite of humans, Onchocerca volvulus, and its vector, blackflies in the genus Simulium. We generated a baseline microfilarial prevalence map from point estimates from 47 locations in the ecological transition separating the savannah and forest in Ghana, where transmission of O. volvulus persists despite onchocerciasis control efforts. We generated movement suitability maps based on environmental correlates with mitochondrial population structure of 164 parasites from 15 communities and 93 vectors from only four sampling sites, and compared these to the baseline prevalence map. Parasite genetic distance between sampling locations was significantly associated with elevation (r = .793, p = .005) and soil moisture (r = .507, p = .002), while vector genetic distance was associated with soil moisture (r = .788, p = .0417) and precipitation (r = .835, p = .0417). The correlation between baseline prevalence and parasite resistance surface maps was stronger than that between prevalence and vector resistance surface maps. The centre of the study area had high prevalence and suitability for parasite and vector gene flow, potentially contributing to persistent transmission and suggesting the importance of re-evaluating transmission zone boundaries. With suitably dense sampling, this framework can help delineate transmission zones for onchocerciasis and would be translatable to other vector-borne diseases.

Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries.

Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.91), 2.60 (1.89-3.57), and 1.41 (1.22-1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98-1.51), 2.09 (1.26-3.47), and 1.37 (0.83-2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia.

Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern

The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established.

Bayesian workflow for time-varying transmission in stratified compartmental infectious disease transmission models.

Compartmental models that describe infectious disease transmission across subpopulations are central for assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, behavioral changes and seasonal effects on the spread of respiratory infections. We present a Bayesian workflow for such models, including four features: (1) an adjustment for incomplete case ascertainment, (2) an adequate sampling distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases, (3) a flexible, time-varying transmission rate, and (4) a stratification by age group. Within the workflow, we benchmarked the performance of various implementations of two of these features (2 and 3). For the second feature, we used SARS-CoV-2 data from the canton of Geneva (Switzerland) and found that a quasi-Poisson distribution is the most suitable sampling distribution for describing the overdispersion in the observed laboratory-confirmed cases. For the third feature, we implemented three methods: Brownian motion, B-splines, and approximate Gaussian processes (aGP). We compared their performance in terms of the number of effective samples per second, and the error and sharpness in estimating the time-varying transmission rate over a selection of ordinary differential equation solvers and tuning parameters, using simulated seroprevalence and laboratory-confirmed case data. Even though all methods could recover the time-varying dynamics in the transmission rate accurately, we found that B-splines perform up to four and ten times faster than Brownian motion and aGPs, respectively. We validated the B-spline model with simulated age-stratified data. We applied this model to 2020 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and two seroprevalence studies from the canton of Geneva. This resulted in detailed estimates of the transmission rate over time and the case ascertainment. Our results illustrate the potential of the presented workflow including stratified transmission to estimate age-specific epidemiological parameters. The workflow is freely available in the R package HETTMO, and can be easily adapted and applied to other infectious diseases.

Winged Threat on the Offensive: A Literature Review Due to the First Identification of Aedes japonicus in Poland.

Genetic studies preceded by the observation of an unknown mosquito species in Mikołów (Poland) confirmed that it belongs to a new invasive species in Polish fauna, Aedes japonicus (Theobald, 1901), a known vector for numerous infectious diseases. Ae. japonicus is expanding its geographical presence, raising concerns about potential disease transmission given its vector competence for chikungunya virus, dengue virus, West Nile virus, and Zika virus. This first genetically confirmed identification of Ae. japonicus in Poland initiates a comprehensive review of the literature on Ae. japonicus, its biology and ecology, and the viral infections transmitted by this species. This paper also presents the circumstances of the observation of Ae. japonicus in Poland and a methodology for identifying this species.

Bacterial community profiles within the water samples of leptospirosis outbreak areas.

Leptospirosis is a water-related zoonotic disease. The disease is primarily transmitted from animals to humans through pathogenic Leptospira bacteria in contaminated water and soil. Rivers have a critical role in Leptospira transmissions, while co-infection potentials with other waterborne bacteria might increase the severity and death risk of the disease. The water samples evaluated in this study were collected from four recreational forest rivers, Sungai Congkak, Sungai Lopo, Hulu Perdik, and Gunung Nuang. The samples were subjected to next-generation sequencing (NGS) for the 16S rRNA and in-depth metagenomic analysis of the bacterial communities. The water samples recorded various bacterial diversity. The samples from the Hulu Perdik and Sungai Lopo downstream sampling sites had a more significant diversity, followed by Sungai Congkak. Conversely, the upstream samples from Gunung Nuang exhibited the lowest bacterial diversity. Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, and Acidobacteria were the dominant phyla detected in downstream areas. Potential pathogenic bacteria belonging to the genera Burkholderiales and Serratia were also identified, raising concerns about co-infection possibilities. Nevertheless, Leptospira pathogenic bacteria were absent from all sites, which is attributable to its limited persistence. The bacteria might also be washed to other locations, contributing to the reduced environmental bacterial load. The present study established the presence of pathogenic bacteria in the river ecosystems assessed. The findings offer valuable insights for designing strategies for preventing pathogenic bacteria environmental contamination and managing leptospirosis co-infections with other human diseases. Furthermore, closely monitoring water sample compositions with diverse approaches, including sentinel programs, wastewater-based epidemiology, and clinical surveillance, enables disease transmission and outbreak early detections. The data also provides valuable information for suitable treatments and long-term strategies for combating infectious diseases.

Transmission dynamics of a reaction-advection-diffusion dengue fever model with seasonal developmental durations and intrinsic incubation periods.

In this paper, we propose a reaction-advection-diffusion dengue fever model with seasonal developmental durations and intrinsic incubation periods. Firstly, we establish the well-posedness of the model. Secondly, we define the basic reproduction number for this model and show that is a threshold parameter: if , then the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive; if , the system is uniformly persistent. Thirdly, we study the global attractivity of the positive steady state when the spatial environment is homogeneous and the advection of mosquitoes is ignored. As an example, we use the model to investigate the dengue fever transmission case in Guangdong Province, China, and explore the impact of model parameters on . Our findings indicate that ignoring seasonality may underestimate . Additionally, the spatial heterogeneity of transmission may increase the risk of disease transmission, while the increase of seasonal developmental durations, intrinsic incubation periods and advection rates can all reduce the risk of disease transmission.

Molecular diagnosis for camel raw milk microbiota.

The existence of diverse microbes in unprocessed camel milk poses a significant threat to the well-being of a large population, especially infants and toddlers. The objective of this study was to ascertain the existence of microorganisms in unprocessed raw camel milk by employing a molecular-based technique in combination with a histological examination of bacteria. The identification of microbial species was achieved by employing PCR amplification and sequencing of 16s rRNA gene fragments. Various micorganisms found includes the probiotic Lactobacillus species, Staphylococcus succinic, Macrococcus casealyticus, Bacillus cohnii, and Salinicoccus kunmingensis. To prevent microbial contamination in raw milk, it is necessary to adequately heat or pasteurise the milk and to wash and sterilise the udder before milking the camel. This is because raw milk contains microbes that cause multiple diseases. Moreover, in the current era of the COVID-19 pandemics, ensuring proper sanitary conditions in milk and its derivatives might potentially mitigate the transmission of various diseases among consumers shortly. Keywords: camel, microbiota, 16s rRNA gene, PCR.

An individual-based movement model for contacts between mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus)

Contacts between individuals are key for the spread of infectious disease. Although essential to understanding disease spread, contact rates are difficult to predict, based simply on population demographics in wildlife populations, because contact rates depend upon environmental features as well as the nature of social interactions within and between groups of individuals. We developed a detailed, behaviorally structured, individual-based model (IBM) in Netlogo to simulate contacts between- and within-groups of individual mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), a species particularly susceptible to chronic wasting disease. The model tracks contacts (defined as two individuals coming within five meters of one another), recorded as between- or within-group depending on the social group membership of the two individuals (dyad). We parameterized the model with data from mule deer with global positioning systems (GPS) collars in east-central Alberta, Canada. Individuals move according to habitat preferences, home range attraction, and grouping behaviours. Animals were tracked at two-hour time steps and were modelled as selecting locations relative to preferred resources based on sex-specific integrated step-selection functions (iSSFs) with steps biased toward a home range centroid. Total within-group contacts increased with group size and were sensitive to changes in movement cohesion of the group and movement persistence, particularly movement cohesion. Total between-group contacts were sensitive only to the number of groups. We compared model predictions for where the locations of deer contacts occurred against an existing statistical model for the relative contact probabilities (RCP) on the same landscape (Dobbin et al. 2023). Predicted locations of deer contacts generally were consistent with higher predicted RCP values. When disease transmission is a function of contact rate, the model can be used to assess the interaction between model components (e.g., movement rates, grouping rules, home ranges, animal densities) and the spatial distribution of key natural and artificial resources that may attract deer and potentially increase disease spread.

Dynamics of an [formula omitted] epidemic model with stochastic optimal control and awareness programs

An unaware susceptible-aware susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered (SuSaV IR) epidemic disease model has been developed and extensively examined to better understand the intricate dynamics of the disease transmission with saturated recovery function. A non-linear, monotonically increasing awareness function has been incorporated and its application is contingent upon the number of infected individuals. The spreading threshold R0 and its sensitivity indices are computed to determine both the prevalence and the potential decline of the spread of disease. Contour plots have been generated to explain how alterations in key parameters affect the evolution of infected individuals. In deterministic model, the condition R0<1 ensures the global stability of a disease-free state while R0>1 indicates the presence of a globally stable prevailing state. A numerical approach has been employed to pinpoint the stability switches for R0 which indicates transcritical bifurcation. Subsequently, a corresponding stochastic model is developed to investigate the impact of random external factors represented as white noise. In addition, the global existence and uniqueness of solutions, and the asymptotic behavior of solutions in the vicinity of steady-states are exhibited in the stochastic model. In the stochastic model, the extinction threshold Res is consistently below R0 due to noise intensity, leading to quicker disease extinction. In order to elucidate the influence of parameters and noise intensities on persistence threshold Rps and extinction threshold Res, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and the variation of each noise intensity have been performed. This study shows that treatment can be used as an effective tool for controlling the spread of disease by lowering R0 and Rps. It has been empirically observed that high environmental fluctuations can serve as a suppressive factor for disease spread in stochastic model with R0,Rps>1 and the higher noise intensities lead to a faster disappearance of the disease. It is noticed that randomness in susceptible and infected individuals can exert a more significant influence on disease mitigation. The spread of infection exhibits a noteworthy dependence on environmental fluctuations. Additionally, to combat and mitigate the spread of disease, we have executed stochastic optimal control measures. Consequently, the control strategy has emerged as a potent tools for effectively managing the propagation of disease.

Exposure, knowledge, and perceptions of hazards associated with solid waste management at the household level in jigjiga town, northeast Ethiopia

The goal of this study is to look into household exposure, knowledge, and perceptions of the risks connected with solid waste management in Jigjiga, Ethiopia. Jigjiga is currently grappling with overflowing landfills and limited waste collection, resulting in open dumping and serious health concerns such as disease transmission. The goal of this research is to better understand how Jigjiga residents interact with the waste management system, as well as their perceptions of the health and environmental issues that arise. The study employed a cross-sectional design using a multistage sampling technique. Two kebeles were used to select 200 families living near and far from the dumpsite. Questionnaires were utilized to collect data on demographics, exposure, knowledge, and risk perception. The analysis was carried out utilizing descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression.A survey of 357 households in Jigjiga, Ethiopia, found concerning trends in solid waste management. 78 % of the population visits the dumpsite on a weekly basis, with the majority residing within a 3-km radius. Almost half (44.5 %) reported monthly visits. Despite this, more than 90 % of locals are aware of the health dangers connected with poor waste management. 72 % of individuals believe that inadequate waste disposal causes to illness, with diarrhea being the most prevalent health concern. This study sheds light on the exposure, understanding, and perceptions of risks associated with solid waste management at the household level in Jigjiga, Ethiopia. The findings highlight the significance of improving solid waste management processes to mitigate the negative consequences on human health, the environment, and the economy.