Power Transition Research Articles

Algeria: Political Participation During the Transformation of Political Regime after 2019

The article focuses on the issues of political regime transformation in Algeria after the overthrow of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Describing the dynamics of Algerian political life, the author points out that the country's current regime can be characterised as hybrid and authoritarian. Nevertheless, the prospects for its further evolution remain unclear. The author opines that these prospects would be determined by the ability of the system to overcome the alienation between the public and the authorities. With this in mind, two key linking mechanisms need be analysed: electoral and direct political participation. When analysing electoral processes, the author compares the events and results of the 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2021 parliamentary campaigns, concluding that the mutual distrust between the public and the government constantly affects the social life of Algeria. Looking at direct forms of participation, he focuses on the “Hirak” Movement, which made the 2019 power transition possible. Indication of its specific traits shows why it did not facilitate the creation of a new social contract. The author concludes the article with the assumption that the alienation between the government and society has not been overcome because Algerian political culture was formed in the colonial and post-colonial periods. The article’s methodology is based on the hybrid regime and social orders theories. Furthermore, the author uses the typology of political parties proposed by Maurice Duverger. The sources and materials used for the study include official documents, media publications and results of the author’s field research.

China and the Logic of Illiberal Hegemony

We develop a theoretical logic and character of a Chinese model of international order. We begin by considering general problems of power transition and hegemonic order-building, with reference to the American experience with liberal hegemony. China will, like all powerful states, seek an order that protects its interests. But unlike its predecessors, China faces an existing order containing elements that threaten its domestic political and economic model. We describe this domestic model and consider how it might be defended at the international level—embedded in the logic and organizational principles of hegemonic order. Our contribution is to theorize the consequences of China’s hegemonic interests, including domestic preservation, and its order-building practices, for the operation and underlying character of a China-led hegemonic order. Though not inherently illiberal in form, we outline how the emergent order could generate illiberal outcomes. This article therefore theorizes the concept of illiberal hegemony.

Major Powers Rivalries: Analysis of War (Choice or Compulsion)

History is consistent with a pattern of the rise and fall of great empires that have dominated the international landscape, but the last five hundred years have simplified an irrefutable arrangement of the rise and fall of great empires. This study explores the rise of China in a historical context and vindicates the hypothetical and theoretical probability of war by using the Thucydides trap in the transition of power from an existing superpower to emerging power. Our results explore that war between the great powers is not a trap created by structural stresses of the international anarchic system, so war is a rational choice for pursuing the strategic goal.

The PRC’S Military Strategies on the Security Architecture of East and South China Sea under President Xi Jinping

Abstract:
 This article analyses the four main military strategies of the People's Republic of China toward the South and East China Seas Security architecture under President Xi Jinping. These strategies of Beijing have been applied mainly to the region, which has been under the US alliance system's security umbrella since the Cold War. The article demonstrates that the People's Republic of China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, seeks to reorder the regional security architecture to its favour by leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and diplomatic-economic power to push out the US and allies’ countries' influence outside East and South China Seas. This article argues that the successful conclusion of the rising power's strategies over the East and South China seas will translate the current geopolitical rivalry to result in a power transition to the detriment of the rising power.
 Keywords: China, Xi Jinping, East China Sea, South China Sea, Power Transition

Re-considering the Coup d’État of 1370

In Vietnams history virtually every new dynasty existed or emerged as the transition of power through the female line. Tran Thu Do, de-facto the founder of the Tran dynasty, attempted to construct such a system of power succession in the scope of a ruling family (intra-kin marriages, new emperors appointments long before their fathers deaths, widowed empresses being sent to nunneries) which could have excluded such an opportunity. The system peacefully existed longer than a century, and crashed. The analysis of the Complete Annals of Dai Viet and Chinese chronicles shows that the Coup of 1370 was the crucial event in that process. All the chronicles consider it to be supposedly a successful repulse of the attempt to seize power by the Duong House, strange to the Tran dynasty. However, that was the starting point of the final crash of Tran Thu Dos system and the result was the fall of the dynasty.

FMTM-feature-map-based transform model for brain image segmentation in tumor detection

ABSTRACT The segmentation of brain images is a leading quantitative measure for detecting physiological changes and for analysing structural functions. Based on trends and dimensions of brain, the images indicate heterogeneity. Accurate brain tumour segmentation remains a critical challenge despite the persistent efforts of researchers were owing to a variety of obstacles. This impacts the outcome of tumour detection, causing errors. For addressing this issue, a Feature-Map based Transform Model (FMTM) is introduced to focus on heterogeneous features of input picture to map differences and intensity based on transition Fourier. Unchecked machine learning is used for reliable characteristic map recognition in this mapping process. For the determination of severity and variability, the method of identification depends on symmetry and texture. Learning instances are taught to improve precision using predefined data sets, regardless of loss of labels. The process is recurring until the maximum precision of tumour detection is achieved in low convergence. In this research, FMTM has been applied to brain tumour segmentation to automatically extract feature representations and produce accurate and steady performance because of promising performance made by powerful transition Fourier methods. The suggested model’s performance is shown by the metrics processing time, precision, accuracy, and F1-Score.

Technology Diffusion And Power Transition: The Case Of The Semiconductor Industry In East Asia

The semiconductor industry is an excellent illustration of the interaction between technology diffusion and power transition. Since the 1960s, there have been three large waves of technology transfer as well as industry transfer in East Asian countries’ semiconductor industry, where the production network acted as an essential nexus. International technology diffusion, whose channels consist of international trade and foreign direct investment, plays a primary role in the formation of the semiconductor production network in East Asia, which has a profound influence on shaping the international power structure. However, the reshaping power structure always attracts the technology exporter’s attention and provokes power competition between the dominant state and the rising power, which in turn casts negative influences on international technology diffusion. Nowadays, the third wave of technology transfer in this field has been ongoing for decades between first-movers and China, while the power competition and the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the process, which will greatly influence the power distribution in the field of the semiconductor industry and the international power structure

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY AND ITS LIMITS IN FORECASTING CHINESE BEHAVIOR TOWARDS THE US. THE CASE OF BALANCE OF POWER THEORY AND POWER TRANSITION THEORY

The literature on international relations pays special attention to China's rise since the "opening of China" in 1978, trying to identify and make predictions about China's behavioral patterns in its relationship with the United States and the current international system. Not surprisingly, international relations theories have been considered – from Morgenthau to present –, useful tools for predicting the evolution of major events in the international relations system. Using different theoretical lenses we can infer different outcomes regarding the complicated US-China relationship especially now, when the Chinese economic and social transformation seems to be accompanied by a revival of its own traditional concepts aimed at formulating a „Chinese school”, of international relations, characterized by the rejection of the realist assumptions that point almost every time to an imminent confrontation and placing both countries on even more profoundly contrasting positions. Therefore, starting from the balance of power theory and the power transition theory, this article aims to identify the extent to which the two theories prove explanatory and predictive value and can be useful tools for inferring China's behavior in the context of the current aggressive discourse that characterizes the relationship between the two countries. Also, this paper is aiming to analyze the limits we can identify in the existing literature on both theories.

Анализ геоиндуктированных токов во время сильных магнитных бурь с применением вейвлет-преобразования

The main problem of electric utilities around the world is to ensure continuous power supply to consumers. One of the causes of power outages and blackouts can be geomagnetic storms during periods of the increased solar activity. They arouse geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing in the long-distance high-voltage power grids on Earth’s surface. The history of this phenomenon investigation shows that GICs during strong geomagnetic storms had led to blackouts in certain regions of Canada, Sweden and the USA. To study these phenomena and assess the risks of such accidents for the regional system, a GICs registration system in 330 kV autotransformers neutrals of the Kola-Karelian power transit was developed in northwestern Russia. During 11 years of monitoring numerous cases of the flow of high values of quasi-dc currents with different time durations, induced by variations of the geomagnetic field, have been registered. In order to analyze the currents a wavelet transform was chosen, since this method allows to define not only the frequency composition but also changes in spectral characteristics over time, which is significant in the study of GIC. The paper presents a discussion of GIC scalograms obtained for four events of Solar Cycle 24: 13-14 November 2012, 17-18 March 2015, 7-8 September 2015 and 7-8 September 2017. The analysis showed that the characteristic duration of the peak of the considered GICs is from 4.6 to 11.1 min.

Seeking status and ontological security in hierarchy: Korea in the historical East Asian order

Abstract This article argues that secondary states in international hierarchy pursue distinctive strategies to define and secure their identities. When and why do they adopt strategy of socialization and emulation? When and why do they prioritize security of identity even at the expense of physical security? To address these questions, I empirically examine the relationships between Korea and imperial China during the Ming and Qing dynasties. I ask why Chosŏn Korea chose to voluntarily subordinate to the Ming, and why it risked its survival during the period of obvious power transition with the rise of the Qing. I develop a theory of secondary states’ identity-seeking based on social identity theory and ontological security studies. Theoretically, it suggests a new mechanism in which secondary states’ status-seeking generates a lock-in effect through deep socialization. Empirically, it adds to the growing literature on historical East Asian international relations by explicitly theorizing secondary states’ quest for identity.

Dyno-Kinematic Leg Design for High Energy Robotic Locomotion

Abstract Animal legs are capable of a tremendous breadth of distinct dynamic behaviors. As robots pursue this same degree of flexibility in their behavioral repertoire, the design of the power transition mechanism from joint to operational space (the leg) becomes increasingly significant given the limitations current actuator technology. To address the challenges of designing legs capable of meeting the competing requirements of various dynamic behaviors, this paper proposes a technique which prioritizes explicitly encoding a set of dynamics into a robot’s leg design, called dyno-kinematic leg design (DKLD). This paper also augments the design technique with a method of evaluating the suitability of an individual leg’s workspace to perform dynamic behaviors, called the effective dynamic workspace (EDW). These concepts are shown to effectively determine optimal leg designs within a set of three, increasingly complex, case studies on different robots. These new legs designs enable a 5 kg robot to climb vertical surfaces at 3 Hz, allow a 60 kg robot to efficiently perform a range of behaviors useful for navigation (including a run at 2 m/s), and endow a small quadrupedal robot with all of the necessary behaviors to produce running and climbing multimodality. This design methodology proves robust enough to determine advantageous legs for a diverse range of dynamic requirements, leg morphologies, and cost functions, therefore demonstrating its possible application to many legged robotic platforms.

Inheritance of Power in Mercia by Princess Aelfwynn

The period of the early Middle Ages is controversial among scholars, especially with regard to gender studies, which have intensified since the late twentieth century. It is believed that in the Middle Ages women were restricted in their rights and the role of a noble woman was limited to strengthening alliance by contracting dynastic marriage. This was the case with the Carolingians, but the end of the early Middle Ages is also known as the beginning of the Viking’s Age, where women were treated with honor and respect, a woman could rule the odal while her husband was absent, and participate in the campaign. The territories of Britain of 9–10 centuries were constantly attacked by Scandinavians, culminating in the establishment of Danelag (area of Danish law), so England at that time was on the border of two civilizations - Western European and Scandinavian. The Kingdom of Mercia lost part of its territory and bordered on Five Viking burgs, while Wessex was able to maintain independence from the Danes. Thus, in the two Anglo-Saxon kingdoms with common traditions, religion and law, different patterns in the realm of women were formed. In 911, a woman who accompanied her husband for a long time in all his campaigns was recognized as the ruler of Mercia, and the question remains whether she could hand over the reins of power to her daughter. The main purpose of the article was to determine the characteristics of the succession to the throne of the Anglo-Saxons and to analyze the possibility of recognizing this right for a woman on the example of the Mercian Princess Elfwynn. The transition of power to the woman’s heir was not typical of the Anglo-Saxons, which aroused interest in a more thorough study of this issue. Based on the analysis and comparison of primary sources, as well as historiography, the article considers the basic principles of succession to the Anglo-Saxons in the early Middle Ages and analyzes the possible transfer of power to the heiress, taking into account the recognition of this right by the nobility. The foreign policy processes that influenced the domestic policy of the Kingdom of Mercia and, as a result, were reflected in the position of the ruling elite on the succession to the throne, are considered in the study. The scientific paper provides a deeper understanding of the status and role of women in the political arena of Anglo-Saxon society by determining the level of their involvement in the government of the kingdom.

The rise of regions: conflict and cooperation

What happens when America's hegemony is over? The rise of regions argues that the United States and western Europe are already in relative decline, facing an emerging great power (China) and a dissatisfied revisionist challenger (Russia). In the book, the contributors rely on A. F. K. Organski's power transition theory—the only power distribution theory to survive the Cold War that is able to account for peace and war over the last three centuries (p. 2). But the book also goes beyond the power transition theory to encapsulate major perspectives, including the Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine, the Thucydides trap and the regional security complex theory. With a set of case-studies, the contributors demonstrate how regions have become the major points of power transition, as global structures dissipate and great powers transform. Thus, the book reflects on whether power transition theory can survive the ‘second’ Cold War and the rise of regions.

The Rise and Fall of Hegemony in International Politics: Doctrine, History, and Strategic Self-awareness

In international political realist theory, hegemonic power emergence is the inevitable result of the self-help principle derived from anarchy. Therefore, this paper analyzes the rise and fall of power in different periods of history based on academic theories such as long cycle theory, power transition theory, and hegemonic stability theory, and concludes that restraint is the basic strategic self-awareness for each competing subject to avoid the premature outbreak of structural conflicts and ensure the peaceful and stable development of the country.

Russia, Eurasia and the Meaning of Crimea

The essay analyses Russia’s historical goals in Eurasia and argues that the geopolitical meaning of Russia’s annexation of Crimea is closely related to the Kremlin’s ambition to play a key role in structuring the region. Russia’s determination to remain a major power, along with the global power transition from the West-centred to an increasingly regionalised world, make Russia’s return to Eurasia important. The return to Eurasia has demonstrated its promise to facilitate increased commercial relations within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as well as with China and other Asian countries. The future of Eurasia and Russia’s role in the region remain uncertain, however, because major participants are yet to align their visions of Eurasia, while Russia itself has yet to consolidate its internal economic and state capabilities.

“THE GORBACHEV PHENOMENON”: THE COLLAPSE OF THE USSR THROUGH THE PRISM OF THE NEW POLITICAL ECONOMY

The tools of the new political economy are rarely used in the analysis of the problems of the Soviet economy. A homogeneous society without class contradictions, with a quota socialist electoral system, and the absolute dominance of one ruling party formally contradicts the basic premises of this toolkit. At present time most researchers agree, that Soviet society was heterogeneous (some scientists even attribute class contradictions to it), but do not go any further. This progress is contradicted by the idea of the USSR as an ideocratic state, based on the civil religion of Marxism-Leninism. But the latter explains the stability of the political regime, not its collapse. The new political economy makes it possible to notice that the USSR was a formal confederation, which became a reality when party influence was neutralized, as well as a corporate state, within which there was a sharp political struggle for resources. These relations were masked by the myth of public property, which was socialist state property. As it seemed to Soviet theoreticians, a single national economic complex was indivisible. The rupture of economic ties was not beneficial to both enterprises and national elites. Nevertheless, the Soviet conditions made the orientation towards obtaining the maximum of centralized investments with the subsequent withdrawal of the republic from the single economic space quite rational. Institutional conditions, within which the institutions that protect the state from disintegration are neutralized, are periodically encountered in situations of power transit. The «Gorbachev Phenomenon» is a situation in which there is a paralysis of power associated with sharp contradictions within the ruling coalition. In such a situation, the private interests of small groups become politically legitimate, and it is almost impossible to stop the collapse of the state.

The Peaceful Transfer of Power and the Social Contract

The potential breakdown of political order stresses the importance of strategic challenges that surface during transitions of power. To understand these challenges, I take a social contract perspective, developing a theoretical framework that highlights the strategic incentives underlying political sovereignty. I show that the stability of political order essentially requires a ruler to consent to her own removal, giving rise to a key incentive condition—the sovereignty constraint. Analysis of the sovereignty constraint uncovers a trade-off between political order and economic inequality and identifies the socioeconomic conditions that are necessary for stable political order. The analysis identifies two necessary forces, the threat of rebellion and economic subversion, which together curb a ruler’s predatory temptations. By extending the model, I show how transitional justice effects both necessary conditions, leading to deterrent and strategic effects, which illustrate how interventions aiming to improve stability may work in some instances but backfire in others.

Overcome the future environmental challenges through sustainable and renewable energy resources

The necessity to achieve global sustainability and renewable energy resources to overcome the threat of climate change has led to unparalleled social and economic alterations ubiquitous throughout the world. The environment surrounding pollution correlated with global warming is essential to technological advances for developing energy resources. Renewable and sustainable energy resources are eco-friendly energy sources that transform heat directly into electrical energy. The transformation of the global energy system underway in various countries can play a predominant role in power sectors. It helps in establishing a low-power solution with high performance in advance. This review paper highlights technological feasibility within the economic activity of sustainable resources in various sectors. The sustainable resource would represent the world's most advanced technology and cost-effective global power transition pathway. The present status, prospects, and updated information about these energy resources have been discussed in detail. This review provides a recommendation on which energy would be suitable for electrical energy generation and would establish a green environment for the next generation to survive in the world.

Do citizens demand transparency from co-partisans? Evidence from a pre-registered experiment in Mexico

Government transparency is vital for democracy because it serves as a tool for citizens to engage in oversight over and hold accountable government officials. In the absence of procedural rules requiring government transparency, politicians' actions are unobserved and cannot be easily rewarded (punished) in response to fulfilling (failing) constituent demands. Additionally, transparency eases the transition of power between political parties by giving non co-partisans a tool to monitor the party in power. Government transparency is important, however its integrity as a procedural tool is dependent on it being demanded by government officials regardless of co-partisanship. If citizens allow co-partisans to undermine government transparency, it ceases to be a tool for the perpetuation of democracy. In this article I utilize a novel pre-registered survey experiment among Mexican respondents to better understand under which contexts citizens demand transparency. Surprisingly, Mexican respondents demand for transparency from co-partisans and non-co-partisans is statistically indistinguishable. This is a meaningful result because it suggests that, at least in the case of Mexico, partisanship does not always undermine support for democratic procedures. Additionally, I find that citizens demand greater transparency about their representatives’ political activities compared to private activities. Surprisingly transparency is not dependent on the level of political office.

North Korean Calligraphy: Gender, Intimacy, and Political Incorporation, 1980s–2010s

AbstractA ubiquitous part of everyday life, North Korean calligraphy is an easily overlooked and yet integral element of the country’s mass mobilization art. Under the curation of Kim Jong Il (Kim Chŏngil, 1941–2011), calligraphy was mobilized as a mechanism for the articulation of organistic national unity centered on the ruling Kim family and captured through the idea of the “social and political living body” (sahoe chŏngch’i chŏk saengmyŏngch’e), which mediated the familial transition of power. Cultivating penmanship identical to that of his father and expanding the hagiographic project around the revolutionary calligraphy of his parents, Kim Il Sung (Kim Ilsŏng, 1912–94) and Kim Jong Suk (Kim Chŏngsuk, 1917–49), Kim Jong Il worked out an image of charismatic familial embodiment by means of the script. In addition, calligraphy constitutes a disciplinary apparatus that coordinates performances of political intimacy, bodily training, and political interpretation within the space of everyday life. Drawing on the North Korean calligraphy textbooks, art periodicals, and visual archive, this article contextualizes the dichotomy of the idiosyncratic style of the male leaders and the feminized, ubiquitous Ch’ŏngbong style, connected with the figure of Kim Jong Suk. Special attention is given to the body symbolism and somatic discipline of North Korean calligraphy, which underlie its political efficacy as inscriptional and hermeneutic practice.