Power Transition Research Articles

Global Power Transition: Where do Major European States Stand?

Global Power Transition: Where do Major European States Stand?

Fighting for Oxford and Cambridge: National Security and Imperial Ambition in the ‘Transition of Power’

ABSTRACT This article uses the rise of the doctrine of ‘national security’ in US statecraft and strategy to re-examine Brian McKercher’s work on the ‘transition of power’ from Britain to the United States. World War II marked the great watershed in American foreign relations, in particular the ability, and more specifically the willingness, of Americans to project power beyond the western hemisphere. Not coincidentally, the war also marked another crucial turning point in American war and diplomacy: the transition from concepts like ‘national self-defence’ and ‘the national interest’ to a strategic doctrine that blended the blunt necessity of defence with the capacious ambition of interests. This new doctrine of ‘national security’ conceived of self-defence in a new way, not just as the protection of territorial sovereignty but as the protection of values, morals, and political norms. This much more capacious idea of defence was designed to be the bastion of a new liberal order to safeguard Western civilisation. In this light, American internationalists conceived of US power as the rightful heir to the mandate of the British Empire, albeit in ways that privileged command of the global commons over direct control of foreign territory. This article investigates the construction of ‘national security’ and the nature of Anglo-American empire in a new light.

‘Three Whores at a christening’: The North Atlantic Triangle Beyond Suez

ABSTRACT For much of its history, Canadian policymakers conceived of Canada as operating within the North Atlantic Triangle, a descriptor of its close economic, cultural, military, and diplomatic ties with Britain and the United States. Frequently, within this triangular relationship, Canada had sought to counterbalance one side against the other. This task became increasingly difficult with the post-1940 transition of power, even as it made the counterbalancing effects of the Triangle all the more important. Examining American-British-Canadian relations in the wake of the Suez Crisis, this article traces that ongoing salience of the North Atlantic Triangle. In particular, it examines Canadian efforts to pursue their interests against the backdrop both of Britain’s decline and US hegemony and British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan’s efforts to rekindle London’s ‘special relationship’ with Washington.

Comprehensive analysis of carbon emission reduction technologies (CRTs) in China's coal-fired power sector: A bottom-up approach

Carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction technologies (CRTs) in the coal-fired power sector play an imperative role in the mitigation of environmental challenges and reducing CO2 emissions to help achieve the 2 °C target. However, a compelling necessity persists for a unified framework that can effectively and accurately estimate the costs and potentials associated with CRTs, arising from the diversity of technologies and unit types. Therefore, this study employs a bottom-up approach to analyze the costs and potential of 25 advanced CRTs in the coal-fired power sector, excluding CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), across 19 types of coal-fired power units. This analysis amalgamates the CO2 reduction supply curve (CRSC) approach with levelized cost of CO2 reduction (LCOC) and a broken-even analysis which could reflect the sector's average carbon reduction cost. The outcomes reveal the following key insights: (1) These technologies collectively harbor a substantial CO2 conservation potential amounting to 925.61 Mt CO2, with a broken-even price of CNY 410.1/tCO2. This reduction could potentially lower 20%–25 % of CO2 emissions in China's power system in 2022, highlighting the crucial role of CRTs in achieving a low-carbon transition and national climate targets; (2)Steam turbine flow path retrofit (T8) not only offers a relatively high CO2 reduction potential (>60 Mt CO2), but also features a low cost (<CNY 150/tCO2) and high profit (>CNY 0.85/MWh). Prioritizing the development of this technology can significantly accelerate the low-carbon transition of coal power; (3) Carbon price have a paramount influence on the cost-effectiveness of CRTs and driving their adoption.

THE FORM OF GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF CONSTITUTIONAL AND DEMOCRATIC REFORMS

The work is devoted to the study of the forms of government established in Kazakhstan since the day it gained state independence and to this day. The topic is given relevance by the political process of democratic transition of power successfully implemented in 2019, as well as the current transition to a new “human-centric” model of public administration. The facts from the history that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of new republics are given. The destruction of interethnic and interethnic harmony, the aggravation of relations between the union republics and the central government are designated as negative aspects. At the same time, the right of the peoples to self-determination and the right of the union republics to freely secede from the Soviet Union are positive. The features of the super-presidential model of government, to which Kazakhstan moved in a difficult period of time, are characterized. The positive aspects of the super-presidential form of government are noted, the uniqueness and originality of which, in the opinion of the authors, should not be in doubt. The history of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which begins in the 90s, clearly shows that the chosen model of government has exceeded all expectations. The factors influencing the formation of forms of government, the subtle flexibility of the Kazakh model of government, prone to transformations, are identified. Attention is paid to the latest changes made to the Constitution of the Russian Federation in 2020, which in general terms are similar to the constitutional reforms in the Republic of Kazakhstan from 2017. Attention is paid to the latest changes made to the Constitution of the Russian Federation in 2020, which in general terms are similar to the constitutional reforms in the Republic of Kazakhstan from 2017. In conclusion, the prospects for a change in the form of government in Kazakhstan are outlined, which are inevitable in the context of constitutional reforms carried out in all spheres of life.

Contestation from Below: Status and Revisionism in Hierarchy

Abstract Existing scholarship suggests that rising powers can become revisionist powers when they are dissatisfied with their status. What causes such dissatisfaction? Conventional wisdom holds that rising powers become dissatisfied when established powers refuse to recognize them as equals. However, if status informs patterns of superiority and inferiority, then rising powers can also become dissatisfied when smaller states do not defer to them. In fact, I argue that there is a life cycle as to how status dissatisfaction develops: status disputes between rising powers and smaller states can be especially frequent early in the power transition, before status disputes between rising powers and established powers become more prevalent. Through text analysis of an original dataset of statements from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 1978 to 2018, supplemented by survey and archival evidence, I demonstrate that contestations from smaller states trigger the majority of China’s status grievances, and China-smaller states status disputes are especially prevalent early on. Thus, status-driven revisionism can emerge via bottom-up processes, and it can happen earlier than currently theorized. My analysis highlights the agency of smaller states in shaping power transitions and hierarchies, as well as how and when the US–China competition unfolds.

Pivotal power of small states to save the international liberal economic order: the case from East Asia

Small- and medium-sized states acquire significant influence when regional and global orders are in flux, as in times of power transition. We have observed such dynamics especially since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, when the competition between two superpowers of the United States (US) and China has intensified in such a way that it affects the soundness of the liberal international economic order (LIEO). These smaller states have become influential in the institutionalization of regional political and economic orders when conditions are right. We argue that the following three aspects of a small state’s attributes influence heavily in shaping their proactive approach to LIEO. The first is its economic structure that shapes its motivation. The second is its polity type that defines internal constraints. The third and final component is its international status that imposes external constraints. This study examines trade policies taken by Vietnam, Indonesia, and South Korea from the 2010s and onward and compares their respective approaches and their impacts on economic order-building in East Asia and beyond.

Unveiling the evolution and future prospects: A comprehensive review of low-carbon transition in the coal power industry

Transitioning to low-carbon coal power plants is critical in addressing climate change, given the significant contribution of coal-fired power generation to global CO2 emissions. Our understanding of the low-carbon transition in the coal power sector has significantly advanced in recent decades. However, the sector's transition remains contentious due to methodological disparities, inconsistent datasets, and varying assumptions across existing studies, which pose challenges for predicting future research trajectories and actions. To address this issue, we developed a Document-based Information Mining and Statistical Analysis Method, conducting a comprehensive review, bibliometric analysis, and comparative study of 1905 journal articles and 14 databases sourced from international authorities. Our quantitative analysis reveals a notable upswing in publications and international collaborative efforts in coal power transition research, with average growth rates of 8.6%, 9.3%, and 3.7% for authors, countries, and institutions, respectively. These studies depict diverse transition trajectories, projecting global and Chinese coal power capacities ranging from 58-927 GW and 0-395 GW in 2050, driven by six key uncertainties such as carbon budgets and energy demand variations, and advancements in CCUS and renewable technologies. We categorized 44 major coal-dependent countries into three groups based on their engagement with coal power transition research, identified three potential transition patterns aligned with temperature control goals, and outlined four distinct research stages in the evolution of coal power transition. Drawing from these insights, we conclude with valuable perspectives on the expansion of international collaboration, reduction of transition uncertainty, focus for future research, and mitigation of transition risks.

The Impact Of Military Assistance On International Political Dynamics

Abstract This research explores the intricate interplay between military assistance and international political dynamics, focusing on its implications for regional power structures. Grounded in Power Transition Theory, the study aims to unravel the complex web of relationships influenced by military aid, examining its intended and unintended consequences. Leveraging qualitative research methods through the analysis of secondary data, three key dimensions are investigated: Military Assistance and Power Transition Theory, Unveiling Diplomatic Dynamics: Military Assistance, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance Politics, and Unintended Consequences: Military Assistance, Security Dynamics, and the Specter of Arms Races. The findings highlight the multifaceted impact of military assistance on regional power dynamics, shedding light on its role in shaping diplomatic relations, influencing alliance politics, and potentially triggering unintended security consequences such as the specter of arms races. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of how military aid shapes the global geopolitical landscape. In conclusion, it emphasizes the need for nuanced policy considerations to mitigate unintended outcomes while harnessing the potential positive impacts of military assistance. Keywords: alliance politics, bilateral relations, diplomatic dynamics, military assistance, power transition

A novel asymmetric tri-stable piezoelectric vibration energy harvester for low-orbit vibration energy harvesting enhancement

This study introduces an innovative asymmetric tri-stable piezoelectric vibration energy harvester (ATPVEH) augmented with an elastic base (EB), aimed at optimizing energy capture from low-orbit vibrations. This design incorporates a uniquely configured asymmetric tri-stable piezoelectric cantilever beam, positioned within a U-shaped block that is further enhanced by an elastic base. A strategically placed spring (kf)–mass (Mf) system, situated between the U-shaped block and the constrained end of the beam, significantly boosts the vertical displacement of the beam during vibrational events. We developed a dynamic model for the ATPVEH+EB utilizing Lagrange’s equations, exploring the impact of various factors—including the asymmetry of the potential well, the stiffness of the elastic base, the mass of the spring–mass system, and the load resistance—on the system’s nonlinear dynamic responses. Our findings indicate that the ATPVEH+EB facilitates more efficient energy harvesting from low-orbit vibrations, demonstrating dual response peaks across its operational frequency spectrum. Notably, the displacement and output voltage amplitudes of the ATPVEH+EB can be enhanced by increasing mf or decreasing kb, whereas the peak output power transitions toward a lower frequency range as the load resistance escalates. Both theoretical analyses and numerical simulations corroborate the ATPVEH+EB’s superior performance in harvesting energy within low-orbit vibrational environments.

Small Signal Modelling and Stability Analysis of a Grid Connected Inverted Based Microgrid

Objectives: This work focuses on the stability analysis of grid connected microgrids. It considers the impact of load disturbance and grid voltage change on voltage and current levels, as well as reactive and active power responses, is analysed. Methods: A comprehensive small-signal state-space model is developed for an inverter-based microgrid, incorporating submodules of inverters, phase-locked loops (PLLs), and LCL filters. The model is linearized around a stable operating point, and eigenvalue analysis is performed and validated through MATLAB/Simulink simulations. A current controller operating in the d-q frame is proposed to enhance stable power conversion and maintain microgrid stability. Findings: The proposed model and control strategy demonstrate the microgrid's ability to maintain transient voltage stability under severe dynamic conditions. During a 10% grid voltage fluctuation, the microgrid exhibits stable active and reactive power responses, with currents and voltages at the point of common coupling stabilizing within 0.2 seconds. Furthermore, when a 25 kVA active load is disconnected, the microgrid effectively manages the power transition, maintaining stable operation with minimal deviations in key parameters. The current controller simplifies AC current control, integrating active power management from solar input, DC-link voltage stability, and reactive power control. Novelty: The novelty lies in the comprehensive analysis of transient voltage stability in grid-connected microgrids under grid voltage fluctuations and load disturbances, areas that have received limited attention in previous research. By developing a detailed small-signal state-space model incorporating PLL and LCL filter dynamics and proposing a robust control strategy with the current controller, this study offers new insights into enhancing the resilience and reliability of grid-connected microgrids during transient events. Keywords: Microgrid, Small Signal Stability, Voltage Source Inverter, State Space model, Eigen Values

Multi-Time-Scale Low-Carbon Economic Dispatch Method for Virtual Power Plants Considering Pumped Storage Coordination

Low carbon operation of power systems is a key way to achieve the goal of energy power carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In order to promote the low carbon transition of energy and power and the coordinated and optimized operation of distributed energy sources in virtual power plants (VPP), this paper proposes a framework for collaborative utilization of pumped storage–carbon capture–power-to-gas (P2G) technologies. It also constructs a multi-time scale low carbon economic dispatch model for VPP to minimize the internal resource operation cost of VPP in each time period. During the intraday scheduling stage, the day-ahead scheduling results as the planned output and the energy flow is then dynamically corrected at a short-term resolution in the framework. This allows for the exploration of the low-carbon potential of each aggregation unit within the virtual power plant. The results of the simulation indicate that the strategy and model proposed in this paper can effectively encourage the consumption of renewable energy sources, promote the low-carbon operation of power system power, and serve as a valuable reference for the low-carbon economic operation of the power system.

Dual-threshold control architecture for improved thermal and power management in open-cathode direct methanol fuel cell

A new dual-threshold cascade control scheme is proposed for water management in direct methanol fuel cells. The control architecture is constructed with the goal of adjusting the liquid-level of a methanol solution in an internal storage tank, where this control structure is based on a set point constrained by upper and lower thresholds. The logic of the algorithm is driven by a noninverting and an inverting Schmitt triggers comprising a switching function that sets the master controller on manual mode for periods of time during which the operating temperature of the electricity-generating fuel cell’s stack can be fixed at an optimal value. Automatic control is implemented when either threshold is reached, triggering a level recovery action where the temperature is manipulated to promote or inhibit cathodic evaporative water losses, depending on the existing perturbations. Manual mode is reinstated when a chosen mid liquid-level target is reached. The strategy seeks to avoid water flooding and dry-out states in the device, while ensuring constant power and current production during periods of manual operation. Simulation studies show that the new control method is immune to severe perturbations, which stands in contrast to a standard cascade control scheme that causes significant degradation and unstable electrical performance in the cell under analogous conditions. Unlike the standard cascade control where the operating temperature is seldom close to the optimal operating point, the improved dual-threshold logic is superior such that the desired temperature of operation can be realized during the entire manual mode, enhancing the performance of the variables that critically depend on temperature. The new method realizes a successful power transition from 30 to 40W, demonstrating its ability to meet changes in load demands, where this transfer is implemented by altering the operational temperature from 45°C to 60°C at a constant voltage. The new strategy can be incorporated into a higher-level optimization control layer, where different temperature operating points can be chosen based on user-defined performance criteria. The study focuses on a case of two different points of the polarization curve corresponding to a power of 40W. While the operating point at a current of 2.51A and temperature of 57.5°C has a higher voltage efficiency of 10%, the second point operating at 2.79A and 50°C shows a boost by 7.6% in fuel efficiency over the first point. Hence, a user can choose the optimal operating condition based on specific performance metrics while simultaneously meeting the load demands. Few recommendations are presented to advance this work in the future.

Governing Corporations in National and Transnational Spaces: Cross‐Level Governmental Orchestration of Corporate Social Responsibility in South Korea

AbstractThe loose spatial and temporal coordination of national and transnational governmental corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies enables multinational corporations (MNCs) to externalize irresponsible behaviours. Political CSR (PCSR) and ‘government and CSR’ studies show how governmental authority shapes CSR at the domestic and transnational levels but provide only limited insights into how to govern MNCs across levels and over time. Combining the concept of orchestration with insights from power transition theory, we theorize cross‐level governmental orchestration as power‐imbued, dynamic, and involving multiple modes of orchestration. Through an analysis of how the South Korean state has deployed CSR domestic and transnational strategies over 30 years, we induce three configurations of cross‐level governmental orchestration, blending coercive, directive, delegative and facilitative modes of orchestration, and identify the mechanisms behind Korea's transition from one configuration to another. Our results: (1) contribute to PCSR and ‘government and CSR’ studies by conceptualizing a systemic and dynamic view of cross‐level orchestration of governmental CSR strategies; (2) advance transnational governance studies by consolidating orchestration theories and considering coercive power, and (3) add to power transition theory by explaining how regulatory capacity‐building enables shifts of cross‐level orchestration configurations.

Phasing out coal power in two major Southeast Asian thermal coal economies: Indonesia and Vietnam

The phase-out of unabated coal power is crucial for meeting climate agreements in coal-dependent economies such as Indonesia and Vietnam. Despite both countries committing to the 2021 Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement, translating phase-out pledges into action poses considerable challenges. Drawing insights from interviews with government, civil society, and industry experts, this study identifies the key barriers hindering coal phase-out in each country. Concerns about potentially escalating electricity prices and power shortages loom large, with the former being more prominent in Indonesia and the latter more prominent in Vietnam. The obstacles appear particularly significant in Indonesia for reasons including its higher coal dependence. We conclude that prioritizing renewable energy growth, as well as halting the construction of new coal plants, would be the most practical and viable way forward for both countries rather than an oversized early focus on coal plant closures. The analysis is of high relevance to informing plans under the two countries' Just Energy Transition Partnerships.

Uzbekistan’s ‘Real’ Second Chance: a Structural Account of the Reforms of Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Abstract The election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Uzbekistan was initially dismissed as, yet another Central Asian transition of power that would ultimately change very little. In this instance however, analysts were proven quite wrong. Since taking the country’s highest office, Mirziyoyev has liberalized the economy, improved relations with neighbors, increased accountability, and signaled willingness to release some executive powers to the people. However, in analyzing these welcomed reforms, we must ask ourselves whether they are genuine. Is Mirziyoyev a radical reformist willing to sacrifice the political order established by his predecessor for the sake of liberalization or are these changes instead part of a broader political agenda for the sake of legitimacy?

Pitfalls for the sustainability of forest transitions: evidence from Southeast Asia

Summary The concept of a forest transition – a regional shift from deforestation to forest recovery – tends to equate forest area expansion with sustainability, assuming that more forest is good for people and the environment. To promote debate and more just and ecologically sustainable outcomes during this period of intense focus on forests (such as the United Nations’ Decade on Ecological Restoration, the Trillion Trees initiative and at the United Nations’ Climate Change Conferences), we synthesize recent nuanced and integrated research to inform forest management and restoration in the future. Our results reveal nine pitfalls to assuming forest transitions and sustainability are automatically linked. The pitfalls are as follows: (1) fixating on forest quantity instead of quality; (2) masking local diversity with large-scale trends; (3) expecting U-shaped temporal trends of forest change; (4) failing to account for irreversibility; (5) framing categories and concepts as universal/neutral; (6) diverting attention from the simplification of forestlands into single-purpose conservation forests or intensive production lands; (7) neglecting social power transitions and dispossessions; (8) neglecting productivism as the hidden driving force; and (9) ignoring local agency and sentiments. We develop and illustrate these pitfalls with local- and national-level evidence from Southeast Asia and outline forward-looking recommendations for research and policy to address them. Forest transition research that neglects these pitfalls risks legitimizing unsustainable and unjust policies and programmes of forest restoration or tree planting.

The US-China Rivalry in the Middle East: Confrontation or Competitive Coexistence

A new era of great power rivalry has returned to the center of the global stage. The Middle East has emerged as one of the key arenas where this rivalry is being played out, and analyzing it through the lens of power transition theory provides valuable insights into the dynamics at play. This study focuses on the great power rivalry between the United States and China in the Middle East through the lens of power transition theory. It examines whether this great power rivalry in the region will allow them to pursue competitive coexistence or if they can expect increasing levels of confrontation and mutual deterrence. The study maintains that the US-China rivalry in the Middle East is multidimensional and spans primarily three dimensions: geo-economic (the Belt and Road Initiative framework), geopolitical (partnership diplomacy), and the race for technological supremacy (the Digital Silk Road). While conflict is not inevitable, it is essential to recognize the potential for confrontation and build a coordinated mechanism to manage and mitigate these tensions.

Assessing the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of China's power sector changes in 2010–2020

Power sector changes in China have far-reaching socioeconomic and environmental impacts. To achieve sustainable power transitions, it is crucial to analyze the impact patterns and mechanisms of power sector changes on socioeconomic and environmental systems. For this purpose, we develop a hybrid-unit input-output model with detailed power sectors and endogenous capital for accurately capturing the overall Socio-Economic-Environmental (SEE) impacts induced by power sector changes over 2010–2020, and underlying determinants are identified using the structural decomposition analysis technique. We find that China's power sector changes exerted positive SEE impacts especially after 2015, with a trade-off of creation in value added and employment over CO2 emissions growth. Revealing the impact mechanisms shows that supply chains embodied more impacts than direct demand variants induced by power operation and capacity investments. Increased generation of clean fossil power and expanded capacity investments of renewable power largely contributed to positive SEE impacts, particularly in fuel-related as well as power equipment manufacturing and metal production sectors, while the phase-down of subcritical coal power and capacity reduction of hydropower impeded SEE progress. Production structure improvement and employment intensity decline as well as power generation shifts toward wind and solar power led to negative SEE impacts alongside reductions in value added and employment, and CO2 emissions growth was further induced by more equipment-intensive investment structures. Our empirical results inform policymaking promoting sustainable power transitions.

Navigating Continuity: A Case Study on Nonprofit Leadership Transition

Transitioning power in an organization can take many shapes and there are even more ways the process can go awry. If a transition of power lacks structure, information can be lost, and programs can suffer. At First Steps, a nonprofit organization that helps adults with disabilities navigate early adulthood, their recent leadership transition led to numerous problems within the organization. This case will explore the decisions the board members of First Steps made for their organization and the effects. The main themes of this case center on succession planning, organizational culture, and crucial decision-making. Students will analyze where the root of the issues began and consider the decisions of the board in each step.