Comprehensive analysis of carbon emission reduction technologies (CRTs) in China's coal-fired power sector: A bottom-up approach

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction technologies (CRTs) in the coal-fired power sector play an imperative role in the mitigation of environmental challenges and reducing CO2 emissions to help achieve the 2 °C target. However, a compelling necessity persists for a unified framework that can effectively and accurately estimate the costs and potentials associated with CRTs, arising from the diversity of technologies and unit types. Therefore, this study employs a bottom-up approach to analyze the costs and potential of 25 advanced CRTs in the coal-fired power sector, excluding CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), across 19 types of coal-fired power units. This analysis amalgamates the CO2 reduction supply curve (CRSC) approach with levelized cost of CO2 reduction (LCOC) and a broken-even analysis which could reflect the sector's average carbon reduction cost. The outcomes reveal the following key insights: (1) These technologies collectively harbor a substantial CO2 conservation potential amounting to 925.61 Mt CO2, with a broken-even price of CNY 410.1/tCO2. This reduction could potentially lower 20%–25 % of CO2 emissions in China's power system in 2022, highlighting the crucial role of CRTs in achieving a low-carbon transition and national climate targets; (2)Steam turbine flow path retrofit (T8) not only offers a relatively high CO2 reduction potential (>60 Mt CO2), but also features a low cost (<CNY 150/tCO2) and high profit (>CNY 0.85/MWh). Prioritizing the development of this technology can significantly accelerate the low-carbon transition of coal power; (3) Carbon price have a paramount influence on the cost-effectiveness of CRTs and driving their adoption.