Traffic Volume Prediction Research Articles

A Light Weight Traffic Volume Prediction Approach Based on Finite Traffic Volume Data

A Light Weight Traffic Volume Prediction Approach Based on Finite Traffic Volume Data

Multidirectional short-term traffic volume prediction based on spatiotemporal networks

Multidirectional short-term traffic volume prediction based on spatiotemporal networks

A feature extraction and deep learning approach for network traffic volume prediction considering detector reliability

AbstractAccurate traffic volume prediction plays a crucial role in urban traffic control by relieving congestion through improved regulation of traffic volume. Network‐level traffic volume prediction and detector failure have rarely been considered in the literature. This paper proposes a framework based on long short‐term memory and the multilayer perceptron that can predict network‐level traffic volumes even with detector failure. A profile model learns the profile of the detector's signature (traffic pattern). Detectors with similar profiles are considered to have similar traffic patterns and are grouped into a cluster. Failed detectors can obtain reference information from similar detectors in the same cluster without additional information. A predictive model is developed for each cluster. The proposed method is validated using Japan Road Traffic Information Center data for three cities. The computational results indicate that the proposed method performs well both on typical days and atypical days (the COVID‐19 lockdown period and the 2021 Tokyo Olympics). Further, it considers detector reliability: the increase in mean absolute error is less than 1 veh/5 min when the probability of detector failure increases to 20%.

Signal-control refined dynamic traffic graph model for movement-based arterial network traffic volume prediction

Forecasting the forthcoming intersection movement-based traffic volume enables adaptive traffic control systems to dynamically respond to the fluctuation of traffic demands. In this paper, a deep-learning based Signal-control Refined Dynamic Traffic Graph (ScR-DTG) Model is proposed for advancing the network-level movement-based traffic volume prediction task. The proposed model attempts to further improve the-state-of-art and practice algorithms in traffic prediction for arterial network adaptive signal control utilizing tradition traffic flow theory boosted deep-learning methodology. For precisely inferencing the movement-based demand at cycle-to-cycle level, the proposed model incorporates spatial graph convolution inferencing layer and temporal inferencing layer to explore both the intricate spatial temporal dependencies, respectively. A signal control refining module is contrived to deduce the controlled movement saturation flow and introduce the essential control inferences, which is of great significance but frequently neglected in the previous researches. Additionally, according to the real-time movement specified travel time, this paper creatively constructs an adjacent graph with dynamic order for more accurately capturing the ever-changing spatial relevancies. Field experiments with multiple signal schemes were conducted in the downtown area of Zhangzhou (China). The promising results demonstrated the state-of-the-art accuracy than other high-performance volume prediction algorithms. Implementing the proposed model enables to obtain accurate movement-based volume predictions, which would assist the traffic management agencies in adjusting signal timing adaptively and further improve the efficiency of signal intersection.

The short-term prediction of daily traffic volume for rural roads using shallow and deep learning networks: ANN and LSTM

The short-term prediction of daily traffic volume for rural roads using shallow and deep learning networks: ANN and LSTM

Large-Scale Network Imputation and Prediction of Traffic Volume Based on Multi-Source Data Collection System

Although newly developed traffic detectors were actively deployed to improve the accuracy and coverage of collecting city-wise traffic state information, the rapid transition of the traffic management system caused the problems of massive data corruption. For the practical application of recovering the missing values, the deep learning-based imputation technique is used, which relies on prediction performance with the consideration of dynamic spatial and temporal characteristics in the traffic state information. However, the existing method requires an assumption that the given data comprise a complete dataset from a single source based on the experiments evaluated on a small scale or long stream of freeways. In this paper, we propose a multi-variable spatio-temporal learning technique based on multi-source traffic state information, which was realized by adopting Attention-based Spatial–Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (ASTGCN). The proposed imputation method cooperatively aggregates spatial and temporal correlation from two different types of detectors into an integrated framework, which allows us to predict missing volume regardless of the missing rate. Moreover, the study was conducted on a large-scale network that contains the entire road characteristics. Daejeon city has served as a case study to demonstrate the performance, and the results show that the mean absolute error of the proposed method is under 12 vehicles/5 min. Our work indicates that multi-source traffic state information can be utilized to impute city-wide missing traffic volume.

Review of Traffic Volume Prediction Based on Bibliometric Analysis

Review of Traffic Volume Prediction Based on Bibliometric Analysis

QCNN_BaOpt: Multi-Dimensional Data-Based Traffic-Volume Prediction in Cyber-Physical Systems.

The rapid growth of industry and the economy has contributed to a tremendous increase in traffic in all urban areas. People face the problem of traffic congestion frequently in their day-to-day life. To alleviate congestion and provide traffic guidance and control, several types of research have been carried out in the past to develop suitable computational models for short- and long-term traffic. This study developed an effective multi-dimensional dataset-based model in cyber-physical systems for more accurate traffic-volume prediction. The integration of quantum convolutional neural network and Bayesian optimization (QCNN_BaOpt) constituted the proposed model in this study. Furthermore, optimal tuning of hyperparameters was carried out using Bayesian optimization. The constructed model was evaluated using the US accident dataset records available in Kaggle, which comprise 1.5 million records. The dataset consists of 47 attributes describing spatial and temporal behavior, accidents, and weather characteristics. The efficiency of the proposed model was evaluated by calculating various metrics. The performance of the proposed model was assessed as having an accuracy of 99.3%. Furthermore, the proposed model was compared against the existing state-of-the-art models to demonstrate its superiority.

Sequence-to-Sequence Recurrent Graph Convolutional Networks for Traffic Estimation and Prediction Using Connected Probe Vehicle Data

Traffic estimation is imperative for conducting fundamental transportation engineering tasks such as transportation planning and traffic safety studies. Additionally, traffic prediction is vital for many data-driven intelligent transportation system applications. Most traffic estimation and prediction methods rely on infrastructure-based sensors to collect traffic parameters. However, infrastructure-based data collection can be costly and time consuming to set up and maintain. Additionally, the spatial distribution of the collected traffic data is limited by the location of the deployed hardware sensors. Probe vehicle data can be used to overcome these limitations. Traffic modeling for estimation and prediction is a complex task due to the stochastic nonlinear spatiotemporal dependencies exhibited by traffic parameters. In this paper, a deep learning-based sequence-to-sequence architecture called Seq2seq GCN-LSTM was proposed to estimate and predict network-wide traffic volume and speed. The proposed method utilizes short-term historical traffic data collected from a low-penetration rate probe vehicle fleet to estimate and predict traffic parameters up to 60-minutes ahead. The method utilizes Graph Convolutional Networks for spatial dependency extraction and Long Short-Term Memory networks to model temporal dependencies. The proposed method generated superior traffic results compared to the baseline models. Additionally, the model demonstrated robustness against perturbations caused by the low rate. Furthermore, the probe vehicle penetration rate was varied to test its effect on the proposed method’s modeling capability. The model was able to maintain traffic volume and speed estimation and prediction performance within a reasonable margin of error using penetration rates as low as 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively.

Prediction of Traffic Volume of Motor Vehicles Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Technology

Urban traffic volume detection is an essential part of traffic planning in terms of urban planning in China. To improve the statistics efficiency of road traffic volume, this thesis proposes a method for predicting motor vehicle traffic volume on urban roads in small and medium-sized cities during the traffic peak hour by using mobile signal technology. The method is verified through simulation experiments, and the limitations and the improvement methods are discussed. This research can be divided into three parts: Firstly, the traffic patterns of small and medium-sized cities are obtained through a questionnaire survey. A total of 19745 residents were surveyed in Luohe, a medium-sized city in China and five travel modes of local people were obtained. Secondly, after the characteristics of residents’ rest and working time are investigated, a method is proposed in this study for the distribution of urban residential and working places based on mobile phone signaling technology. Finally, methods for predicting traffic volume of these travel modes are proposed after the characteristics of these travel modes and methods for the distribution of urban residential and working places are analyzed. Based on the actual traffic volume data observed at offline intersections, the project team takes Luohe city as the research object and it verifies the accuracy of the prediction method by comparing the prediction data. The prediction simulation results of traffic volume show that the average error rate of traffic volume is unstable. The error rate ranges from 10% to 30%. In this thesis, simulation experiments and field investigations are adopted to analyze why these errors occur.

Improved Long Short-Term Memory-Based Periodic Traffic Volume Prediction Method

Improved Long Short-Term Memory-Based Periodic Traffic Volume Prediction Method

Data-Driven Graph Filter-Based Graph Convolutional Neural Network Approach for Network-Level Multi-Step Traffic Prediction

Accurately predicting network-level traffic conditions has been identified as a critical need for smart and advanced transportation services. In recent decades, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely applied for traffic state, including traffic volume prediction. This paper proposes a novel deep learning model, Graph Convolutional Neural Network with Data-driven Graph Filter (GCNN-DDGF), for network-wide multi-step traffic volume prediction. More specifically, the proposed GCNN-DDGF model can automatically capture hidden spatiotemporal correlations between traffic detectors, and its sequence-to-sequence recurrent neural network architecture is able to further utilize temporal dependency from historical traffic flow data for multi-step prediction. The proposed model was tested in a network-wide hourly traffic volume dataset between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2019 from 150 sensors in the Los Angeles area. Detailed experimental results illustrate that the proposed model outperforms the other five widely used deep learning and machine learning models in terms of computational efficiency and prediction accuracy. For instance, the GCNN-DDGF model improves MAE, MAPE, and RMSE by 25.33%, 20.45%, and 29.20% compared to the state-of-the-art models, such as Diffusion Convolution Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), which is widely accepted as a popular and effective deep learning model.

Predicting Model for Air Transport Demand under Uncertainties Based on Particle Filter

The outbreak of the COVID-19 has brought about huge economic loss and civil aviation industries all over the world have suffered severe damage. An effective method is urgently needed to accurately predict air-transport demand under the influences of such accidental factors. This paper proposes a novel predicting framework for the air-transport demand considering the uncertainties caused by accidental factors including regional wars, climatic anomalies, and virus outbreaks. By employing a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sARIMA) model as the basic model, a particle filter (PF)-based sARIMA-pf model is proposed. The applicability of adapting the high-order sARIMA model as the state transition model in a PF framework is shown and proven to be effective. The proposed method has the advantage of coping with short-term prediction with known uncertainties. By conducting case studies on the prediction of air passenger traffic volume in China, the sARIMA-pf model showed better performance than the sARIMA model and improved the accuracy by 49.29% and 44.96% under the conventional and pandemic scenarios, respectively, when using the root mean square error (RMSE) as the indicator.

Hybrid CNN and LSTM Model (HCLM) for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

Hybrid CNN and LSTM Model (HCLM) for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

Attention mechanism‐based model for short‐term bus traffic passenger volume prediction

AbstractTo explore the relevance between bus stops and make the real‐time prediction of bus passenger flow more accurate, this paper proposes a Traffic Forecast Model based on the Attention mechanism (TFMA). The model combines data preprocessing with bus stops’ information coding to predict short‐term bus passenger flow based on the real‐time relevance of the bus stops. First of all, the paper conducts a statistical analysis of the actual public transportation card data of Suzhou, China, and obtains the characteristics of real‐time relevance of different bus stops. Secondly, bus route and bus stop information, the passenger flow rate of change, weather, date, and other related factors are integrated into the coding information of the bus stops. Then the method relies on the Attention mechanism to calculate the real‐time relevance of the bus stops parallelly; the core algorithm also uses a multi‐headed mechanism to increase the connection of the channel and the residual error, further improving the prediction ability. Finally, this article uses actual data from Suzhou's public transport for verification. The results show that: In terms of accuracy, TFMA outperforms multiple linear regression, GRU, and LightGBM, reaching a very high accuracy of nearly 90%.

Short-Time Traffic Forecasting in Tourist Service Areas Based on a CNN and GRU Neural Network

The continuous development of highway construction projects has prompted the function of service areas to be improved day by day. A traditional service area gradually transforms from a single traffic service mode to a complex traffic service mode. The continuous enrichment and perfection of the service area’s function makes the surrounding highway network more attractive, which leads to a sudden increase in highway traffic volume in a short period of time. In order to better improve the service level of a tourist service area by predicting the short-term traffic volume of the toll station around the tourist service area, this paper proposes a model combining a convolutional neural network and a gated recurrent unit (CNN plus GRU) to solve the problem of short-term traffic volume prediction. The data from 17 toll stations of the Yu’an Expressway in Guizhou Province were selected for the experiment to test the prediction effect of the CNN plus GRU-based model. The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy, the MAE and RMSE, are 1.8101 and 2.7021, respectively, for the toll stations with lower traffic volumes, and 3.820 and 5.172, respectively, for the toll stations with higher traffic volumes. Compared with a single model, the model’s prediction accuracy is improved, to different degrees. Therefore, the use of a convolutional neural network operation is better when the total traffic volume is low, considering the algorithm’s time and error. When using the combined convolutional neural network and gated recurrent unit model and when the total traffic volume is high, the algorithm error is significantly reduced and the prediction results are better.

Traffic volume prediction for scenic spots based on multi‐source and heterogeneous data

AbstractTraffic prediction for scenic spots is an important topic in modeling an urban traffic system. Existing traffic prediction approaches typically use raw traffic data and road networks without considering the physical environment and human–environment interaction. This article presents a novel traffic prediction model that considers: (1) the topological structure of the city road network; (2) the popularity and accessibility of each scenic spot in the city; and (3) the traffic volumes of nearby scenic spots. The proposed model first learns a series of traffic dependency graphs by the Multi‐graph Convolutional Network using multiple data sources describing historical traffic volumes, scenic spots popularity, land function, location, and accessibility. The graph nodes represent the scenic spots, and the links between them represent their traffic dependency, considering all traffic and geographic features. Then the proposed model uses the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to capture the temporal dependency between multiple fused graphs for traffic volume prediction. The experiments show that the proposed model (M‐GCNGRU) can effectively exploit and integrate geographic data with historical traffic data for traffic volume prediction, outperforming several classical and state‐of‐the‐art methods.

Estimating Average Daily Traffic on Low-Volume Roadways in Louisiana

Traffic volume is an important parameter that agencies use as a decisive factor, especially at the time of design, maintenance, and operation of roadways. Thus, its correct estimation is very essential. There are already a few established proprietary products available on the market that can predict traffic volumes. In addition, past studies have used several mathematical models to predict traffic volume. Relatively fewer studies have been conducted on predicting traffic volume on low-volume roadways. To bridge the gap on the prediction of traffic volume for low- and high-volume roadways, this study seeks to find practical, cost-effective, and progressive methods of estimating and classifying traffic on low-volume rural roadways. Across the state of Louisiana, 395 locations with low traffic volumes of less than 500 vehicles per day were selected. Census tract data was used to extract demographic and socioeconomic information for each location. Two prediction models—linear regression and random forest regression models—were developed to predict traffic volumes on these low-volume roadways. The results showed that the linear regression model had the highest predictive accuracy, with R-square of 0.979 and root mean square error of 70.26 compared with the RMSE of 110.23 for the random forest regression model. Both models found functional class, land use, number of lanes, population density, median age, median household income, and household density significantly affecting the traffic volume.

Traffic volume prediction using aerial imagery and sparse data from road counts

Around the world, metropolitan areas invest in infrastructure for traffic data collection, albeit focusing on highway networks, thus limiting the amount of data available on inner-city roads. For this purpose, various modelling techniques have been developed to interpolate traffic counts spatially and temporally across an entire road network. However, the predictive accuracy of these models depends on the quality and coverage of traffic count data. In this study, we extend the power of spatio-temporal interpolation models with vehicle detection from aerial images, developing a new approach to estimate Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) across all roads in an urban area. Using Google aerial images, we extracted the number of vehicles on a road segment and treated these values as observed traffic counts collected over a short period of time. This information was used as input and merged with traffic count data at stations with longer record lengths to predict traffic on all urban roads. This approach was compared against a hold-out sample of roads with observed traffic count data and images, indicating an R-squared (R2) = 90% and RMSE = 7675 between predicted and observed daily traffic counts and R2 = 58% and RMSE = 18918 between observed and predicted AADT. The higher prediction accuracy for daily traffic indicates the power of the proposed method for predicting daily values from images; while the lower accuracy of AADT prediction stresses the need for longer-term data to achieve accurate annual averages based on counts derived from images.

Data Imputation for Detected Traffic Volume of Freeway Using Regression of Multilayer Perceptron

Traffic volume data are the important part of research and application of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). However, data loss often happens due to various factors in the real world, which may cause large deviations in prediction or bad accuracy of optimizations. Imputation is a valid way to handle missing values. A multilayer perceptron-multivariate imputation of chain equation (MLP-MICE) regression imputation method optimized by the limit-memory-BFGS algorithm is proposed, considering the temporal and spatial characteristics of traffic volume. Also, 32 groups of simulated imputation experiments based on the detected traffic volume of road sections in the Guangdong freeway system are conducted, which take the scenarios of continuous missing and jumped missing into account. The results of the experiments show that the MLP-MICE can optimize the imputation performance in the missing value of traffic volume with the MAPE of imputation results from 6.38% to 30%. Meanwhile, the proposed model has higher imputation accuracy for the traffic volume data with a lower degree of mutation. Lastly, the performance of the proposed model of imputation in short-term traffic volume prediction is discussed using the support vector machine. The results of it show that the MAPE of prediction under the proposed model is much lower than all-zero imputation. Therefore, the proposed model in this study is positive on improving the accuracy of traffic volume prediction and intelligent traffic control and management.