Traditional Threats Research Articles

Experience in the Use of Military Forces in Flood Protection

The tasks of the Hungarian Defence Forces have changed significantly due to the evolving security challenges. While the level of traditional threats has decreased, there are new challenges approaching, which influence the sense of security in society. These are terrorism, the effects of climate change (floods, snow storms) and cyber crimes. To face the risk factors defined in the National Military Strategy we are in need of changes in preparation, in the set of military assets and in the educational framework. As a result, officer and NCO training and education will be transformed too. We are looking for solutions which can raise the security level of our soldiers in domestic tasks and abroad in international missions.

The reluctant pretender: China's evolving presence in the Indian Ocean

This paper takes stock of China's evolving presence in the Indian Ocean. It posits that despite various traditional and non-traditional threats, the Indian Ocean is not the foremost concern in China's quest for maritime security. As a result, China's efforts to make foray beyond the Strait of Malacca remain limited. Three patterns in its posturing can be distinguished. First, it seeks to deter India – its main counterweight in South Asia – where it is the weakest, that is along the continental border. Second, it explores ways to reduce its reliance on the long maritime lifelines in the Indian Ocean. Third, it is gradually and modestly increasing its presence in a way that can be described as diffuse pervasion. There is thus no reason to be overly alarmed. Yet, important uncertainties remain over China's future intentions and the degree to which problems with lesser powers can prompt it to use military means to defend its interests. Future Chinese naval assertiveness in the region will more likely be the outcome of contingency than strategic provision.

Eurasian aerospace defense as the idea and the project

Magazine «Vestnik of the MGIMOUniversity » starts publication of series of articles, A. Podberezkin, dedicated to the development of ideas and create contours of the concept of the Eurasian air-space defense (EASD). The author acknowledges that the implementation of such a system today can seem like a fantastic idea, but not less fantastic in its time it seemed to the creation of the OSCE, and now – EUROPRO with the participation of Russia. Nevertheless, he insists that politically, economically and military-technically this idea can be real, unless, of course, to the implementation of the phased approach, «without fanaticism», taking into account the interests of the majority of the countries of Eurasia. At the same time, the growing weight of the uncertainties in international relations was created for humanity greater risks than traditional threats. The attention of the readers is the first of a planned series, in which justifies the main ideas of the research project.

Negative-positive Security and the United States

The traditional approach to security is rooted in a strategy of balance of power among great powers and hence national security was based on situational interpretation of the concept among the great powers. Two negative and positive approaches have been used by states to interpret the concept of domestic security and national security. During the Cold War, the USA and the USSR applied negative approaches, and by generalizing the interpretation of their national interests to their spheres of influence, internationalized the concept. In other words, their security was not limited to national borders, and survival was defined in more vast manner. By the end of the Cold War, a positive approach was undertaken by the United States through emphasizing the democratic peace theory. The events of September 11 th , 2001, showed that new forms of challenges such as terrorism have replaced traditional threats to security. To manage the crises sprung out of new challenges, they needed a different kind of approach. This article will explain the security approaches which were applied by the United States during three periods; the Cold War, post-Cold War, and after the events of September 11 th .

A Threat Sorting Approach Based on the Fuzzy Beliefs

To overcome the limitations of the traditional threat assessment algorithms, a new threat sorting approach based on the fuzzy belief is proposed in this paper. In the new approach, the threat degrees described by quantitative number, interval number or linguistic label are all converted into the triangular fuzzy beliefs. The proportional conflict redistribution rule is used to combine the threat degrees of the same kind of assessment factors, the decision discounting rule is used to combine the threat degrees of different kinds of assessment factors, and the centroid method is utilized to make threat sorting. The new approach can not only deal with uncertain threat degrees, but also fuse the quantitative and qualitative threat degrees. The performance of the approach is analyzed in theory in this paper and the experimental results have certified its validity too.

Unified threat model for analyzing and evaluating software threats

ABSTRACTDesign‐level vulnerabilities are a major source of security problems in software programs. For the purpose of improving the trustworthiness of software designs, this paper presents a unified threat model for representing, analyzing, and evaluating software threats at various design stages. Unified threat models represent software threats via tree structures with AND/OR logical relationships and evaluates software threats in a cost‐effective way based on attack paths. Mitigation measures for software threats are designed and prioritized based on the evaluation results, which make it possible to design high‐quality software security programs that resist identified software threats. A case study for an online banking system is given to systematically demonstrate the application of unified threat models in software threat analysis and evaluation. The results from the case study demonstrate that the unified threat model is superior to traditional threat trees in accurately evaluating results, designing mitigation measures, and guiding software security testing. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development and Application of a Database of Food Ingredient Fraud and Economically Motivated Adulteration from 1980 to 2010

Food ingredient fraud and economically motivated adulteration are emerging risks, but a comprehensive compilation of information about known problematic ingredients and detection methods does not currently exist. The objectives of this research were to collect such information from publicly available articles in scholarly journals and general media, organize into a database, and review and analyze the data to identify trends. The results summarized are a database that will be published in the US Pharmacopeial Convention's Food Chemicals Codex, 8th edition, and includes 1305 records, including 1000 records with analytical methods collected from 677 references. Olive oil, milk, honey, and saffron were the most common targets for adulteration reported in scholarly journals, and potentially harmful issues identified include spices diluted with lead chromate and lead tetraoxide, substitution of Chinese star anise with toxic Japanese star anise, and melamine adulteration of high protein content foods. High-performance liquid chromatography and infrared spectroscopy were the most common analytical detection procedures, and chemometrics data analysis was used in a large number of reports. Future expansion of this database will include additional publically available articles published before 1980 and in other languages, as well as data outside the public domain. The authors recommend in-depth analyses of individual incidents. This report describes the development and application of a database of food ingredient fraud issues from publicly available references. The database provides baseline information and data useful to governments, agencies, and individual companies assessing the risks of specific products produced in specific regions as well as products distributed and sold in other regions. In addition, the report describes current analytical technologies for detecting food fraud and identifies trends and developments.

The many heels of Achilles: An analysis of self-reported limitations in leadership research

The aim of this study was to assess the research published in The Leadership Quarterly from its inception in 1990 to 2007. As the foundation for our study, we used self-reported limitations sections of empirical articles as an alternative, novel, and context-sensitive index of state-of-science. Limitations reported in the one-hundred and seventy-four empirical articles published in The Leadership Quarterly to date were coded according to traditional threats to validity. Our results indicate that LQ articles mostly report limitations related to external validity issues. Also, a growing concern with internal validity was noted. These findings offer a unique perspective on leadership research, one that paints a considerably different picture than that offered from previous empirical reviews. We discuss the role of self-reported limitations in scientific communication and offer some prescriptions for increasing their value.

Worlds tied together? Online and non-domestic routine activities and their impact on digital and traditional threat victimization

The article compares risk factors between threat victimization by digital and traditional modes (e.g. email or chat room versus letter or face-to-face). Until now, empirical tests of routine activity theory have applied a segregated approach in such cases, linking computer activities to cybercrime victimization and outdoor activities to traditional victimization. However, an integrated approach suggests that social interactions between people in the physical and digital world are connected. Thus, exposure to conflict-prone situations and eventual escalation of the conflict by a threat can occur in separate domains. Routine activities online can therefore result in traditional threat victimization and, conversely, outdoor activities can result in digital threat victimization. Results from victimization survey data from a sample of the Dutch general population (N = 6896) offer support for these hypotheses. The findings suggest that routine activity theory needs to be tested in new ways in contemporary digitalized societies.

Iredentismus: tradiční a nová dimenze hrozby pro Českou republiku

This article deals with the threat of irredentism for the Czech Republic, mostly from the comparative historical perspective. It analyses contemporary situation and possible future development of territorial claims in relation to the Czech Republic. It defines the term irredentism and its dimensions. The irredentist threats for the Czech Republic in the first half of the 20 century are described. Contemporary threats are conceptualized (new dimension of traditional threats with direct connection to the Czech territory, new dimension of traditional threats in regional security environment and new forms of irredentist threats). Author comes to conclusion that the substance of irredentist threat has been changed - from "hard security" threat to "weak security" threat, however, in the future can be the risk potential of some forms of irredentism again higher than today.

When security met politics: desecuritization of North Korean threats by South Korea's Kim Dae-jung government

This study delves into an empirical case analysis of the desecuritization process of the North Korean threat under the Kim Dae-jung government. Unlike previous studies, it analyzes how domestic and international actors desecuritized traditional threats by taking the pluralistic political processes of a democratic polity seriously. This was the process of competition between different political coalitions and the process of transformation from issues of high politics into issues of low politics. It remains to be seen whether the Kim Dae-jung government's desecuritization of North Korean threats was a deep or a shallow one, but it appears to be clear that the desecuritization of North Korean threats by the Kim Dae-jung government paved the way for another 5 years of progressive government with Roh Moo-hyun's ‘unexpected' victory in the 2002 presidential election.

Cyber Weapons Convention

World leaders are beginning to look beyond temporary fixes to the challenge of securing the Internet. One possible solution may be an international arms control treaty for cyberspace. The 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) provides national security planners with a useful model. CWC has been ratified by 98% of the world’s governments, and encompasses 95% of the world’s population. It compels signatories not to produce or to use chemical weapons (CW), and they must destroy existing CW stockpiles. As a means and method of war, CW have now almost completely lost their legitimacy. This article examines the aspects of CWC that could help to contain conflict in cyberspace. It also explores the characteristics of cyber warfare that seem to defy traditional threat mitigation.

Children's environmental health—from knowledge to action

WHO estimates that up to 25% of the global burden of disease is due to preventable environmental exposures. Children are especially vulnerable because they receive a higher dose than adults, with more extreme consequences. The unborn child's health can also be affected, because the environment can influence gene expression and organogenesis. The burden of disease is unevenly distributed, with greatest exposure to children in developing and low-income countries. While children in such countries still have to cope with traditional threats, including lack of access to safe water, poor sanitation and hygiene, and infectious diseases, they suffer from emerging environmental exposures that threaten their health, such as the effects of rapid globalisation, an upsurge in urbanisation, transboundary chemical transport, and unsustainable consumption. All of these threats contribute to environmental degradation. 1 Suk WA Ruchirawat KM Balakrishnan K et al. Environmental threats to children's health in southeast Asia and the western Pacific. Environ Health Perspect. 2003; 111: 1340-1347 Crossref PubMed Scopus (60) Google Scholar Along with poverty and undernutrition, children in developing countries are faced with a triple burden of disease.

The Clash of David and Goliath at Sea: The USS Cole Bombing as Sea Insurgency and Lessons for the ROK Navy

On October 12, 2000, the USS Cole was attacked by a small band of Islamic (global) insurgents. Why would sea insurgents attack a professional warship that did not appear to be related to counterinsurgency? When are such attacks successful, and when are they not successful? Three dimensions—value, vulnerability, and learning—give convincing answers to this puzzle. I trace two cases: the USS Cole bombing and the USS Ashland and Kearsarge missile attack. I find that when the navy is equipped with a fast learning process and this reduces its vulnerability, sea insurgents' attacks are less successful. This strategic interaction dynamic is strongly applicable to South Korea under three subdynamics: alliance, commitment dilemma, and enhanced naval capabilities. Thus, the Republic of Korea Navy needs to establish a flexible strategy in its effort to effectively deal with nontraditional threats as well as traditional threats, such as North Korea.

Safeguarding Peace and Security in our Warming World: A Role for the Security Council

In international peace and security dialogue, the fear provoked by climate change pales in comparison with that incited by terrorism or weapons of mass destruction. Climate change is, after all, a non-traditional ‘threat’. Yet climate change may well merit the same level of attention as traditional threats. In light of the growing realities of climate change, unmet through mitigation, it appears that more concerted action is needed. This paper argues that it is to the United Nations Security Council that the world ought to turn for leadership of a global response to climate change security threats through Chapter VII collective security mechanisms. It is argued that climate change threats are tantamount to threats to international peace and security given the evolution of threats since the Charter of the United Nations was signed in 1945. However, an incremental use of Chapter VII measures is necessary, progressing from the less coercive measures to the most extreme use of force only when prompted by the most extreme of circumstances. This paper concludes that there is scope for these Chapter VII measures to be implemented in conjunction with the international environmental law regime to combat climate change.

The orangutan–oil palm conflict: economic constraints and opportunities for conservation

The future of the orangutan (Pongo spp.) is far from secure despite the species’ high profile and media attention. The traditional threat to the orangutan has been widespread logging, but the continuing conversion of remaining habitat for oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation is hastening its extinction in the wild. This situation is driven by a robust global market for palm oil as a vegetable oil and biofuel. In tackling this conservation problem, therefore, economic factors cannot be overlooked. This article analyses these factors and how they curtail effective orangutan conservation. Of significance are the high opportunity costs of orangutan conservation and market failures associated with the public-goods nature of the orangutan’s forest habitat. Conservationists should consider these constraints when formulating remedial action. This article assesses strategies that reduce the opportunity cost of conserving habitat (via supply-side approaches that divert oil palm cultivation away from forests) and enhance the realisable value of orangutan habitat (by capitalising on the demand for non-market values such as carbon storage). It is concluded that the former group of strategies are likely to have limited effect on curtailing deforestation, but with the right institutional policies in place they can act as stopgaps while strategies involving carbon financing and payments for biodiversity develop sufficiently to render habitat retention financially competitive.

Reconceptualizando la seguridad: cambio de dilemas y amenazas

El artículo, presenta algunas de las transformaciones que ha sufrido la conceptualización de la seguridad, en cuanto a la definición del término y en cuanto a sus principales referentes, amenazas y dilemas. El proceso de reconceptualización de la seguridad plantea adicionalmente la redefinición del papel de los medios militares que tradicionalmente la garantizaban, y del principio de soberanía estatal. Dicha redefinición es también el resultado del cambio en la naturaleza de las amenazas y del surgimiento de otro tipo de actores diferentes al Estado que interactúan con éste en los ámbitos nacional e internacional. Por último, en el artículo se expone una breve caracterización del tipo de amenazas no tradicionales que han visibilizado otro tipo de problemas y asuntos referentes a la seguridad humana.

Energy and Security in the East China Sea

Abstract The conflict-ridden East China Sea has been attracting attention recently. The two major actors, China and Japan, have conducted nine rounds of negotiations and the priority on the agenda is placed on the legal delimitation and joint development of oil and gas fields. Concrete progress is being made with an accident-preventive initiative to enhance the liaison mechanism between China and Japan. The other is likely a joint report on a joint development plan to be issued by fall 2007. However, security implications and problems exist, with some characteristics. The first one is the security structure in East Asia, which is closely related to the ongoing Cold War climate, which hinders China to engage in regional security activities. China, therefore, is confronting traditional threats as well as non-traditional threats. The second one is domestic politics, which has a strong influence on a country's maritime security policy. It reflects reality clearly in Japan. The third one is the issue of Sea Li...

Turkey and the EU After the First Year of Negotiations: Reconciling Internal and External Policy Challenges

The EU’s commencement of accession negotiations with Turkey in October 2005 represents a watershed in Turkish-EU relations. However, even in the area of straightforward technicalities, the negotiations are linked to a wider set of unresolved and highly sensitive political issues, of which the Cyprus question is the most significant. Unresolved Aegean disputes with Greece and the Armenian issue form another set of wider external issues that affect the day-to-day framework of the negotiations. Internal issues that can have repercussions on the negotiations include Kurdish minority rights and the decision of the European Court of Human Rights calling for a retrial of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. The EU accession process has left Turkey with the dilemma of how to reconcile its internal and external policy challenges. Traditionally, Turkey has separated its internal security challenges, such as Kurdish separatism and Islamic fundamentalism, from its external security relations, which are based on state-centric security relationships. This situation is being superseded by an emergent discourse on Turkish foreign policy, as Euro-sceptics who frame Turkey’s national security within a traditionalist military-dominant perspective are challenged by pro-EU actors who view economic instability as more significant than traditional military threats. While Turkey’s uniqueness -such as the special place of its military within the state and society -is difficult for the EU to grasp, the very speciality of the Turkish case does not in itself warrant an alternative to full membership, such as privileged partnership. All previous accession negotiations have ended in full membership. If Turkey were to become an exception after it has made headway in implementing EU criteria, this would have wider repercussions for Turkey’s relations with the West and the EU’s image in the Islamic world at large. Thus, the Turkish case probably constitutes the greatest challenge the EU has had to face in dealing with an accession country.

Presentation of the Morris F. Collen Award to Clement J. McDonald, MD

The American College of Medical Informatics (ACMI) is an honorary society established to recognize those who have made sustained contributions to the field. Its highest award, for lifetime achievement and significant contributions to the discipline of medical informatics, is the Morris F. Collen Award. Dr. Collen's own efforts as a pioneer in the field stand out as the embodiment of creativity, intellectual rigor, perseverance, and personal integrity. Once a year, when appropriate, the College gives its highest recognition to those whose attainments have, throughout their careers, substantially advanced the science and art of medical informatics. In 2004, the College was proud to present the Collen Award to Dr. Clement J. McDonald (Fig. 1). Dr. McDonald has been an innovative, hands-on, and operationally oriented contributor to the field of informatics. In addition, he has proved himself the traditional academic triple threat of educator, clinical care provider, and researcher. Figure 1 Clement J. McDonald, MD. ### Early Days Clem McDonald grew up on Chicago's West Side. His father was an engineer and his mother was a schoolteacher. Of the five McDonald children, all three boys grew up to become physicians. As a five year old, Clem first displayed the ingenuity that would become a hallmark of his life and career. He and a couple of buddies took the “El” or elevated train downtown but lacked sufficient funds to return home; young Clem panhandled for change to pay the return fare for himself and his kindergarten comrades. It was in the fifth grade that Clem read the entire World Book Encyclopedia after he contracted polio requiring a long recuperation at home. Clem enrolled at Notre Dame where he graduated in three years with majors in chemistry, physics, and biology before attending the University of …