Traditional Statistical Models Research Articles

Minimizing of Forecasting Error in Fuzzy Time Series Model Using Graph-Based Clustering Method

In recent years, numerous fuzzy time series (FTS) forecasting models have been developed to address complex and incomplete problems. However, the accuracy of these models is specific to the problem at hand and varies across datasets. Despite claims of superiority over traditional statistical and single machine learning-based models, achieving improved forecasting accuracy remains a formidable challenge. In FTS models, the lengths of intervals and fuzzy relationship groups are considered crucial factors influencing forecasting accuracy. Hence, this study introduces an FTS forecasting model based on the graph-based clustering technique. The clustering algorithm, utilized during the fuzzification stage, enables the derivation of unequal interval lengths. The proposed model is applied to forecast two numerical datasets: enrollment data from the University of Alabama and the datasets of Gas prices RON95 in Vietnam. Comparisons of forecasting results between the proposed model and others are conducted for enrollment forecasts at the University of Alabama. The findings reveal that the proposed model achieves higher forecasting accuracy across all orders of fuzzy relationships when compared to its counterparts

GIS and Machine Learning Models Target Dynamic Settlement Patterns and Their Driving Mechanisms from the Neolithic to Bronze Age in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Traditional GIS-based statistical models are intended to extrapolate patterns of settlements and their interactions with the environment. They contribute significantly to our knowledge of past human–land relationships. Yet, these models are often criticized for their empiricism, lopsided specific factors, and for overlooking the synergy between variables. Though largely untested, machine learning and artificial intelligence methods have the potential to overcome these shortcomings comprehensively and objectively. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) is characterized by diverse environments and significant changes to the social system from the Neolithic to Bronze Age. In this study, this area serves as a representative case for assessing the complex relationships between settlement locations and geographic environments, taking full advantages of these new models. We have explored a novel modeling case by employing GIS and random forests to consider multiple factors, including terrain, vegetation, soil, climate, hydrology, and land suitability, to construct classification models identifying environmental variation across different cultural periods. The model exhibited strong performance and a high archaeological prediction value. Potential living maps were generated for each cultural stage, revealing distinct environmental selection strategies from the Neolithic to Bronze Age. The key environmental parameters of elevation, climate, soil erosion, and cultivated land suitability were calculated with high weights, influencing human environmental decisions synergistically. Furthermore, we conducted a quantitative analysis of temporal dynamics in climate and subsistence to understand driving mechanisms behind environmental strategies. These findings suggest that past human environmental strategies were based on the comprehensive consideration of various factors, coupled with their social economic scenario. Such subsistence-oriented activities supported human beings in overcoming elevation limitation, and thus allowed them to inhabit wider pastoral areas. This study showcases the potential of machine learning in predicting archaeological probabilities and in interpreting the environmental influence on settlement patterns.

STUCK PIPE MITIGATION: FINDINGS, ANALYSIS, AND MACHINE LEARNING SOLUTIONS

The occurrence of stuck pipes during drilling presents significant challenges, leading to nonproductive time (NPT) and potential damage to equipment. This paper delves into the reasons behind, effects of, and methods for addressing incidents of stuck pipes in drilling actions. Extensive literature review and analysis reveal the prevalence of stuck pipe events and their diverse underlying causes, ranging from differential sticking to mechanical jamming. Additionally, the study identifies key drilling parameters and signals indicative of potential stuck pipe incidents, emphasizing the importance of early detection and intervention to prevent adverse outcomes. Proposing the utilization of machine learning algorithms and statistical models for predictive analytics as a proactive strategy to mitigate the risk of stuck pipe incidents. The paper discusses the limitations of traditional statistical models and highlights the efficacy of machine learning methods, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs), in accurately modeling drilling processes. Furthermore, practical machine learning models using real-time drilling data are presented as effective tools for early detection and timely intervention in stuck pipe incidents. The study also describes various software tools used to assess and mitigate risks in drilling operations. Overall, this paper presents prospects for improving operational efficiency and safety of drilling operations using advanced analytical methods and software solutions. Keywords: stuck pipe, type of stuck, drillstring immobilization, nonproductive time, machine learning in drilling, risk analysis software.

Prognostic models and factors identifying end-of-life in non-cancer chronic diseases: a systematic review

BackgroundPrecise prognostic information, if available, is very helpful for guiding treatment decisions and resource allocation in patients with non-cancer non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to systematically review the...

Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer, muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area, China

Due to the lack of accurate data and complex parameterization, the prediction of groundwater depth is a challenge for numerical models. Machine learning can effectively solve this issue and has been proven useful in the prediction of groundwater depth in many areas. In this study, two new models are applied to the prediction of groundwater depth in the Ningxia area, China. The two models combine the improved dung beetle optimizer (DBO) algorithm with two deep learning models: The Multi-head Attention–Convolution Neural Network–Long Short Term Memory networks (MH-CNN-LSTM) and the Multi-head Attention–Convolution Neural Network–Gated Recurrent Unit (MH-CNN-GRU). The models with DBO show better prediction performance, with larger R (correlation coefficient), RPD (residual prediction deviation), and lower RMSE (root-mean-square error). Compared with the models with the original DBO, the R and RPD of models with the improved DBO increase by over 1.5%, and the RMSE decreases by over 1.8%, indicating better prediction results. In addition, compared with the multiple linear regression model, a traditional statistical model, deep learning models have better prediction performance.摘要本研究将两个新模型应用于位于中国西北干旱半干旱区的宁夏地区地下水深度预测. 这两个模型将改进的蜣螂优化 (DBO) 算法与两个深度学习模型相结合, 即多头注意力-卷积神经网络-长短期记忆网络和多头注意力-回旋神经网络-门控递归单元. 带有DBO的模型预测结果表现出更大的相关系数 (R) , 残差预测偏差 (RPD) 和较低的均方根误差 (RMSE) , 预测结果更好. 此外, 与DBO模型相比, 改进后的DBO模型的R和RPD增加了1.5%以上, RMSE降低了1.8%以上, 表明预测结果更好. 与传统的统计模型多元线性回归模型相比, 深度学习模型具有更好的预测性能.

A Bayesian convolutional neural network-based generalized linear model.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) provide flexible function approximations for a wide variety of applications when the input variables are in the form of images or spatial data. Although CNNs often outperform traditional statistical models in prediction accuracy, statistical inference, such as estimating the effects of covariates and quantifying the prediction uncertainty, is not trivial due to the highly complicated model structure and overparameterization. To address this challenge, we propose a new Bayesian approach by embedding CNNs within the generalized linear models (GLMs) framework. We use extracted nodes from the last hidden layer of CNN with Monte Carlo (MC) dropout as informative covariates in GLM. This improves accuracy in prediction and regression coefficient inference, allowing for the interpretation of coefficients and uncertainty quantification. By fitting ensemble GLMs across multiple realizations from MC dropout, we can account for uncertainties in extracting the features. We apply our methods to biological and epidemiological problems, which have both high-dimensional correlated inputs and vector covariates. Specifically, we consider malaria incidence data, brain tumor image data, and fMRI data. By extracting information from correlated inputs, the proposed method can provide an interpretable Bayesian analysis. The algorithm can be broadly applicable to image regressions or correlated data analysis by enabling accurate Bayesian inference quickly.

Cryptocurrency assets valuation based on statistics model and machine learning

As a matter of fact, cryptocurrency is an exchange media, which uses cryptographic functions to trade, which achieves decentralisation, transparency, and invariance using blockchain. With the rapid development since the first white book proposed in 2008. The market value of cryptocurrency has been exponentially expanded rapidly in recent years. On this basis, programmatic trading strategy are paid more attention by people in trading cryptocurrency contemporarily. With this in mind, this study provides three models, that is, Exponential Smoothing Model (ESM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Long short-term memory (LSTM) model to forecast the future price of cryptocurrency and use sum of square error to analyse the results of these prediction. According to the analysis, LSTM is the best model to forecast the price of cryptocurrency in this article. Overall, machine learning might be more useful to forecast in this fields than traditional statistical models. Investors and researchers in the future could continue to forecast the price of cryptocurrency combined with LSTM model.

Gait kinematics and kinetics in patients with chronic ankle instability and healthy controls: A statistical parametric mapping analysis

BackgroundChronic ankle instability (CAI) is associated with changes in gait biomechanics which may be related to chronic dysfunction. Traditional statistical models may be limited in their ability to assess the complex 3D movement of the lower extremity during gait. Multivariate analysis of the lower extremity kinematics may reveal unique biomechanical differences associated with CAI. Research Question: Do patients with CAI differ from healthy controls in their lower extremity biomechanics and GRF when comparing 3D biomechanics? MethodsThirty-nine young, active adults participated in this study. Data was collected using a 3D motion analysis system while patients walked and jogged. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to explore 3D GRF, kinematics and kinetics of the of the lower extremity of CAI and healthy patients. ResultsDuring walking, patients with CAI had greater inversion from 68–100% of gait cycle (p < 0.001, mean difference=3.2°). During jogging, patients with CAI had greater inversion from 20–92% (p < 0.001, mean difference=4.6°). Greater plantar flexion moments were found from 65–71% (p = 0.05, mean difference=347.4Nm/kg) and greater eversion moments were found from 95–100% (p = 0.03, mean difference=74.6Nm/kg) in the CAI group. No differences in GRF were found.Significance:Greater inversion may present a potentially injurious position. A faulty position of the rearfoot may require greater muscle function in order to correct the position of the joint resulting in greater eversion moments at the ankle. However, this kinetic change does not appear to correct the ankle position.

A Novel Ensemble Machine Learning Model for Oil Production Prediction with Two-Stage Data Preprocessing

Petroleum production forecasting involves the anticipation of fluid production from wells based on historical data. Compared to traditional empirical, statistical, or reservoir simulation-based models, machine learning techniques leverage inherent relationships among historical dynamic data to predict future production. These methods are characterized by readily available parameters, fast computational speeds, high precision, and time–cost advantages, making them widely applicable in oilfield production. In this study, time series forecast models utilizing robust and efficient machine learning techniques are formulated for the prediction of production. We have fused the two-stage data preprocessing methods and the attention mechanism into the temporal convolutional network-gated recurrent unit (TCN-GRU) model. Firstly, the random forest (RF) algorithm is employed to extract key dynamic production features that influence output, serving to reduce data dimensionality and mitigate overfitting. Next, the mode decomposition algorithm, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), is introduced. It employs a decomposition–reconstruction approach to segment production data into high-frequency noise components, low-frequency regular components and trend components. These segments are then individually subjected to prediction tasks, facilitating the model’s ability to capture more accurate intrinsic relationships among the data. Finally, the TCN-GRU-MA model, which integrates a multi-head attention (MA) mechanism, is utilized for production forecasting. In this model, the TCN module is employed to capture temporal data features, while the attention mechanism assigns varying weights to highlight the most critical influencing factors. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model achieves outstanding predictive performance. Compared to the best-performing comparative model, it exhibits a reduction in RMSE by 3%, MAE by 1.6%, MAPE by 12.7%, and an increase in R2 by 2.6% in Case 1. Similarly, in Case 2, there is a 7.7% decrease in RMSE, 7.7% in MAE, 11.6% in MAPE, and a 4.7% improvement in R2.

Optimizing Stock Price Prediction: Exploring LSTM Architectural Parameters in Financial Forecasting

Accurate stock price prediction is a crucial concern in the field of finance, impacting investors, traders, and the broader economic landscape. Traditional time series analysis and statistical models often fall short in capturing the dynamic and nonlinear nature of financial markets. Financial market forecasting has advanced significantly with the advent of deep learning technology, especially Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. This study conducts an in-depth exploration of LSTM networks' critical architectural parameters and their impact on stock price prediction. The performance of the LSTM-based model is assessed using historical stock price data from Amazon, with particular attention paid to hyperparameters like the number of neurons, dropout rates, and LSTM layers. The research reveals that a well-balanced model architecture with moderate units per layer (e.g., 64), a single layer, and a dropout rate of 0.7 is key to achieving accurate predictions in financial markets. The outcomes of this research hold practical significance for both investors and financial analysts. Furthermore, they emphasize the promising potential of LSTM networks in the realm of financial forecasting, opening avenues for future studies in finance. This investigation deepens the comprehension of LSTM network architecture and its applicability in predicting stock prices, providing valuable insights that extend beyond the finance sector.

Classifying Beta-Secretase 1 Inhibitor Activity for Alzheimer’s Drug Discovery with LightGBM

This study explores the utilization of LightGBM, a gradient-boosting framework, to classify the inhibitory activity of beta-secretase 1 inhibitors, addressing the challenges of Alzheimer's disease drug discovery. The study aims to enhance classification performance by focusing on overcoming the limitations of traditional statistical models and conventional machine-learning techniques in handling complex molecular datasets. By sourcing a dataset of 7298 compounds from the ChEMBL database and calculating molecular descriptors for each compound as features, we employed LightGBM in conjunction with a set of carefully selected molecular descriptors to achieve a nuanced analysis of compound activities. The model's efficiency was benchmarked against traditional machine-learning algorithms, revealing LightGBM's superior accuracy (84.93%), precision (87.14%), sensitivity (89.93%), specificity (77.63%), and F1-score (88.17%) in classifying beta-secretase 1 inhibitor activity. The study underscores the critical role of molecular descriptors in understanding drug efficacy, highlighting LightGBM's potential in streamlining the virtual screening process. Conclusively, the findings advocate for LightGBM's adoption in computational drug discovery, offering a promising avenue for advancing Alzheimer's disease therapeutic development by facilitating the identification of potential drug candidates with enhanced precision and reliability.

Predicting dental anxiety in young adults: classical statistical modelling approach versus machine learning approach

ObjectivesTo predict and identify the key demographic and clinical exposure factors associated with dental anxiety among young adults, and to compare if the traditional statistical modelling approach provides similar results to the machine learning (ML) approach in predicting factors for dental anxiety.MethodsA cross-sectional study of Western Illinois University students. Three survey instruments (sociodemographic questionnaire, modified dental anxiety scale (MDAS), and dental concerns assessment tool (DCA)) were distributed via email to the students using survey monkey. The dependent variable was the mean MDAS scores, while the independent variables were the sociodemographic and dental concern assessment variables. Multivariable analysis was done by comparing the classical statistical model and the machine learning model. The classical statistical modelling technique was conducted using the multiple linear regression analysis and the final model was selected based on Akaike information Criteria (AIC) using the backward stepwise technique while the machine learining modelling was performed by comparing two ML models: LASSO regression and extreme gradient boosting machine (XGBOOST) under 5-fold cross-validation using the resampling technique. All statistical analyses were performed using R version 4.1.3.ResultsThe mean MDAS was 13.73 ± 5.51. After careful consideration of all possible fitted models and their interaction terms the classical statistical approach yielded a parsimonious model with 13 predictor variables with Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) of 2376.4. For the ML approach, the Lasso regression model was the best-performing model with a mean RMSE of 0.617, R2 of 0.615, and MAE of 0.483. Comparing the variable selection of ML versus the classical statistical model, both model types identified 12 similar variables (out of 13) as the most important predictors of dental anxiety in this study population.ConclusionThere is a high burden of dental anxiety within this study population. This study contributes to reducing the knowledge gap about the impact of clinical exposure variables on dental anxiety and the role of machine learningin the prediction of dental anxiety. The predictor variables identified can be used to inform public health interventions that are geared towards eliminating the individual clinical exposure triggers of dental anxiety are recommended.

Credit risk modelling within the euro area in the COVID‐19 period: Evidence from an ICAS framework

AbstractThis paper develops a logistic regression model in an in‐house credit assessment system (ICAS) framework for predicting corporate defaults in the Greek economy. We consider the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the associated government financial support schemes, aiming to protect against financial vulnerabilities, on the probability of default of non‐financial firms, as well as the relevant sectoral and firm‐size effects. In developing the ICAS framework, we address methodological issues such as the predictive performance of statistical versus machine learning approaches and the imbalanced dataset problem, indicating ways to evaluate such models with strong predictive power. Our findings suggest that the effect of the financial support measures dominates the pandemic shocks, thus substantially reducing the probability of firms' default, while the size‐ and industry‐based models show that firms in the micro and services sectors benefited the most. Furthermore, using a random forest model, our findings highlight the trade‐off between the transparency of traditional statistical models and the predictive value of machine learning models.

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Diffusion Analysis of Electric Vehicles With Two-Stage Purchase Choice Modeling

Abstract Diffusion research of innovative technologies is crucial for new product positioning and strategic planning in product design. As a versatile system simulation method, agent-based modeling (ABM) has been used in many previous studies on the diffusion analysis of electric vehicles (EVs). In these simulations, modeling consumers' purchase decisions is a significant step. Previous studies often adopt simple rule-based decision criteria in this step, while an accurate purchase decision model can contribute to a more reasonable diffusion analysis of EVs. To fill this gap, this brief presents an agent-based modeling approach for the diffusion analysis of electric vehicles with two-stage choice modeling. The core idea is to separate consumers' decision-making process for purchasing cars into two stages. Consumers first form a small choice set from the whole auto market. Then, they make the final choice from the choice set built in the first stage. In addition, the word-of-mouth (WOM) effect and consumers' social networks are also considered in the ABM, which can further improve the accuracy of the diffusion analysis. A case study using data collected from Shanghai, China, is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach. Our approach outperforms other ablation models as well as traditional statistical models in the prediction accuracy of EV's market share. The influence of factors such as government policy and technological improvement on the diffusion of EVs is also discussed. These insights can assist automakers in improving their product design and enhancing their market competitiveness.

딥러닝 기반 시계열 분석 모델의 불확실성 정량화 비교 연구

With the advancement of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning, their applications in various industries, particularly finance, have increased. However, interpreting predictions from deep learning models poses challenges, especially in finance where result interpretation is important. This study aims to determine the uncertainty of stable deep learning models, despite changes in the model like dropout, to establish standards for reliable models and identify those detecting anomal data through model uncertainty. In the experiment, the traditional statistical model ARIMA and deep learning models mainly used for time series analysis, CNN, LSTM, MLP, and CNN-LSTM. Uncertainty was measured from a Bayesian perspective using MC Dropout. The experimental results confirmed that deep learning models performed better than statistical models for various patterns of time series data. It was observed that, even if the performance was not the best, LSTM based models exhibited low uncertainty, indicating stability. Consequently, this study highlights the importance of considering uncertainty along with accuracy in model selection. Moreover, it was confirmed that models with higher uncertainty are suitable for anomaly detection, making CNN based models particularly fitting for this purpose.

A fusion of machine learning algorithms and traditional statistical forecasting models for analyzing American healthcare expenditure

The American healthcare system allocates considerable resources compared to peer-developed nations. However, outcomes significantly trail behind, particularly in life expectancy. This study addresses questions about the enduring trends in healthcare spending as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), notable factors contributing to this concerning trend, and the timing to apply an emergency brake to curb this accelerating trajectory. Advanced machine learning algorithms, such as Random Forest and Support Vector Regression (SVR), in conjunction with traditional statistical forecasting methods, are used to forecast future patterns. The research underscores the importance of healthcare analytics in unraveling the intricacies of the healthcare system. The findings highlight the pressing need for effective policies to confront this mounting challenge.

GADNN: a revolutionary hybrid deep learning neural network for age and sex determination utilizing cone beam computed tomography images of maxillary and frontal sinuses

IntroductionThe determination of identity factors such as age and sex has gained significance in both criminal and civil cases. Paranasal sinuses like frontal and maxillary sinuses, are resistant to trauma and can aid profiling. We developed a deep learning (DL) model optimized by an evolutionary algorithm (genetic algorithm/GA) to determine sex and age using paranasal sinus parameters based on cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT).MethodsTwo hundred and forty CBCT images (including 129 females and 111 males, aged 18–52) were included in this study. CBCT images were captured using the Newtom3G device with specific exposure parameters. These images were then analyzed in ITK-SNAP 3.6.0 beta software to extract four paranasal sinus parameters: height, width, length, and volume for both the frontal and maxillary sinuses. A hybrid model, Genetic Algorithm-Deep Neural Network (GADNN), was proposed for feature selection and classification. Traditional statistical methods and machine learning models, including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), and deep learning (DL) were evaluated for their performance. The synthetic minority oversampling technique was used to deal with the unbalanced data.ResultsGADNN showed superior accuracy in both sex determination (accuracy of 86%) and age determination (accuracy of 68%), outperforming other models. Also, DL and RF were the second and third superior methods in sex determination (accuracy of 78% and 71% respectively) and age determination (accuracy of 92% and 57%).ConclusionsThe study introduces a novel approach combining DL and GA to enhance sex determination and age determination accuracy. The potential of DL in forensic dentistry is highlighted, demonstrating its efficiency in improving accuracy for sex determination and age determination. The study contributes to the burgeoning field of DL in dentistry and forensic sciences.

Enhancing Subsurface Soil Moisture Forecasting: A Long Short-Term Memory Network Model Using Weather Data

Subsurface soil moisture is a primary determinant for root development and nutrient transportation in the soil and affects the tractability of agricultural vehicles. A statistical forecasting model, Vector AutoRegression (VAR), and a Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) were developed to forecast the subsurface soil moisture at a 20 cm depth using 9 years of historical weather data and subsurface soil moisture data from Fort Wayne, Indiana, USA. A time series analysis showed that the weather data and soil moisture have a stationary seasonal tendency and demonstrated that soil moisture can be forecasted from weather data. The VAR model estimates volumetric soil moisture of one-day ahead with an R2, MAE (m3m−3), MSE (m6m−6), and RMSE (m3m−3) of 0.698, 0.0561, 0.0046, and 0.0382 for 2021 corn cropping season, whereas the LSTM model using inputs of previous seven days yielded R2, MAE (m3m−3), MSE (m6m−6), and RMSE (m3m−3) of 0.998, 0.00237, 0.00002, and 0.00382, respectively as tested for cropping season of 2020 and 0.973, 0.00368, 0.00003 and 0.00577 as tested for the cropping season of 2021. The LSTM model presents a viable data-driven alternative to traditional statistical models for forecasting subsurface soil moisture.

Evaluating Real-World Benefits of Hearing Aids With Deep Neural Network-Based Noise Reduction: An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

Noise reduction technologies in hearing aids provide benefits under controlled conditions. However, differences in their real-life effectiveness are not established. We propose that a deep neural network (DNN)-based noise reduction system trained on naturalistic sound environments will provide different real-life benefits compared to traditional systems. Real-life listening experiences collected with Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMAs) of participants who used two premium models of hearing aid are compared. One hearing aid model (HA1) used traditional noise reduction; the other hearing aid model (HA2) used DNN-based noise reduction. Participants reported listening experiences several times a day while ambient SPL, SNR, and hearing aid volume adjustments were recorded. Forty experienced hearing aid users completed a total of 3,614 EMAs and recorded 6,812 hr of sound data across two 14-day wear periods. Linear mixed-effects analysis document that participants' assessments of ambient noisiness were positively associated with SPL and negatively associated with SNR but were not otherwise affected by hearing aid model. Likewise, mean satisfaction with the two models did not differ. However, individual satisfaction ratings for HA1 were dependent on ambient SNR, which was not the case for HA2. Hearing aids with DNN-based noise reduction resulted in consistent sound satisfaction regardless of the level of background noise compared to hearing aids implementing noise reduction based on traditional statistical models. While the two hearing aid models also differed on other parameters (e.g., shape), these differences are unlikely to explain the difference in how background noise impacts sound satisfaction with the aids. https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.25114526.

A New Synthetic Aperture Radar Ship Detector Based on Clutter Intensity Statistics in Complex Environments

In complex environments, the clutter statistical characteristics of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) are inconstant, and the constant detection performance of a false alarm rate (CFAR) detector based on a clutter statistical model is also hard to achieve. As a result, the overestimated threshold leads to a degradation in detection probability. To this end, this paper proposes a SAR ship detector different from CFAR detectors, which is independent of traditional clutter statistical distribution models and the probability of a false alarm (PFA). The proposed detector aims to raise the ship detection probability and alleviate interference from complex environments such as multi-target areas, shores, and breakwaters. It estimates clutter-truncated thresholds based on clutter intensity statistics (CIS). Firstly, three statistical parameters, including the mean, standard deviation, and maximum intensity of background clutter contaminated by outliers, are calculated; secondly, these parameters are utilized to estimate the clutter-truncated threshold using the novel CIS; and finally, the pixel under test is determined according to the CIS detection rule. Compared with CFAR-based algorithms, CIS obtains a high probability of detection in complex environments. As for other aspects, the CIS detector is insensitive to the structure of the detection window, as well as the size. It is also computationally efficient due to its simple calculations. The superiority of the CIS detector is validated on scene-differed SAR images from the DSSDD dataset.