Traditional Statistical Models Research Articles

Forecasting infection fatality rate of COVID-19: measuring the efficiency of several hybrid models

The main goal of this paper is to delve into a crucial epidemiological metric the daily infection fatality rate in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The significance of understanding this metric lies in its potential to provide insights into the severity and impact of the virus on a daily basis. Methods: To achieve this overarching objective, we employ a comprehensive approach by applying various hybrid models that hybridize both machine learning and statistical techniques. In our pursuit of a deeper understanding, we leverage advanced machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. These techniques allow us to capture intricate patterns and relationships within the data, contributing to a more nuanced analysis of the infection fatality rate. The application of machine-learning models in epidemiological studies has gained prominence due to their ability to adapt to complex and evolving patterns inherent in infectious disease dynamics. Complementing our machine-learning arsenal, we integrate traditional statistical models such as ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), fractional ARIMA, and BATS (Bayesian Structural Time Series). Results. To assess the performance of these models, we employ key evaluation metrics, including Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). These metrics serve as critical benchmarks, allowing us to quantify the accuracy and reliability of our models in predicting the daily infection fatality rate. A meticulous evaluation of model performance is crucial for ensuring the validity and of our findings. According to these measures, we see that hybrid models performed well especially ARIMA-RF model RMSE: 0.29, MSE: 0.084, MAE: 0.215 for the horizon 60 and for horizon 120 ARIMA-RF still the best performance, RMSE: 0.268, MSE: 0.071, MAE: 0.183, we get these results due to the capacity of this approach to handle complex patterns contrarily to other model ARIMA, BATS, RF and SVM. Conclusion. This work adopted this approach in order to build a model to predict infection fatality rate, we aspire to provide a nuanced understanding of the factors influencing the severity of the virus, ultimately contributing to the ongoing discourse on effective public health interventions and mitigation strategies.

Development and validation of radiology-clinical statistical and machine learning model for stroke-associated pneumonia after first intracerebral haemorrhage

BackgroundSociety is burdened with stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) after intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). Cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) complicates clinical manifestations of stroke. In this study, we redefined the CSVD burden score and incorporated it into a novel radiological-clinical prediction model for SAP.Materials and methodsA total of 1278 patients admitted to a tertiary hospital between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019 were included. The participants were divided into training and testing groups using fivefold cross-validation method. Four models, two traditional statistical models (logistic regression and ISAN) and two machine learning models (random forest and support vector machine), were established and evaluated. The outcomes and baseline characteristics were compared between the SAP and non-SAP groups.ResultsAmong the of 1278 patients, 281(22.0%) developed SAP after their first ICH. Multivariate analysis revealed that the logistic regression (LR) model was superior in predicting SAP in both the training and testing groups. Independent predictors of SAP after ICH included total CSVD burden score (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03–1.54), haematoma extension into ventricle (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.87–3.31), haematoma with multilobar involvement (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.44–3.18), transpharyngeal intubation operation (OR, 3.89; 95% CI, 2.7–5.62), admission NIHSS score ≥ 10 (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.42–3.01), male sex (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.16–2.52), and age ≥ 67 (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.56–3.22). The patients in the SAP group had worse outcomes than those in the non-SAP group.ConclusionThis study established a clinically combined imaging model for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia and demonstrated superior performance compared with the existing ISAN model. Given the poor outcomes observed in patients with SAP, the use of individualised predictive nomograms is vital in clinical practice.

Short-Term Energy Forecasting to Improve the Estimation of Demand Response Baselines in Residential Neighborhoods: Deep Learning vs. Machine Learning

Promoting flexible energy demand through response programs in residential neighborhoods would play a vital role in addressing the issues associated with increasing the share of distributed solar systems and balancing supply and demand in energy networks. However, accurately identifying baseline-related energy measurements when activating energy demand response events remains challenging. In response, this study presents a deep learning-based, data-driven framework to improve short-term estimates of demand response baselines during the activation of response events. This framework includes bidirectional long-term memory (BiLSTM), long-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), convolutional neural networks (CNN), deep neural networks (DNN), and recurrent neural networks (RNN). Their performance is evaluated by considering different aggregation levels of the demand response baseline profile for 337 dwellings in the city of La Rochelle, France, over different time horizons, not exceeding 24 h. It is also compared with fifteen traditional statistical and machine learning methods in terms of forecasting accuracy. The results demonstrated that deep learning-based models, compared to others, significantly succeeded in minimizing the gap between the actual and forecasted values of demand response baselines at all different aggregation levels of dwelling units over the considered time-horizons. BiLSTM models, followed by GRU and LSTM, consistently demonstrated the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in most comparison experiments, with values up to 9.08%, 8.71%, and 9.42%, respectively. Compared to traditional statistical and machine learning models, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was among the best, with a value up to 11.56% of MAPE, but could not achieve the same level of forecasting accuracy in all comparison experiments. Such high performance reveals the potential of the proposed deep learning approach and highlights its importance for improving short-term estimates of future baselines when implementing demand response programs in residential neighborhood contexts.

Enhanced Estimation of Traffic Noise Levels Using Minute-Level Traffic Flow Data through Convolutional Neural Network

The advent of high-resolution minute-level traffic flow data from video surveillance on roads has opened up new opportunities for enhancing the estimation of traffic noise levels. In this study, we propose an innovative method that utilizes time series traffic flow data (TSTFD) to estimate traffic noise levels using a deep learning Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Unlike traditional traffic flow data, TSTFD offer a unique structure and composition suitable for multidimensional data analysis. Our method was evaluated in a pilot study conducted in Foshan City, China, utilizing traffic flow information obtained from roadside video surveillance systems. Our results indicated that the CNN-based model surpassed traditional data-driven statistical models in estimating traffic noise levels, achieving a reduction in mean squared error (MSE) by 10.16%, mean absolute error (MAE) by 4.48%, and an improvement in the coefficient of determination (R²) by 1.73%. The model demonstrated robust generalization capabilities throughout the test period, exhibiting mean errors ranging from 0.790 to 1.007 dBA. However, the model’s applicability is constrained by the acoustic propagation environment, demonstrating effectiveness on roads with similar surroundings while showing limited applicability to those with different surroundings. Overall, this method is cost-effective and offers enhanced accuracy for the estimation of traffic noise level.

A Comprehensive Review of Radio Signal Propagation Prediction for Terrestrial Wireless Communication Systems

The subject of study known as radio propagation prediction refers to predicting the behaviour and characteristics of radio waves as they propagate through the atmosphere. It is a basic element of all wireless communication systems, including satellite communications, broadcasting and cellular networks. While there is no study covers all the techniques used to predict the radio signal prediction, this study presents a review of the propagation prediction models between 2018-2023 used for terrestrial wireless communication systems; the classic empirical models were briefly explained, followed by the deterministic propagation models that have been developed using ray-tracing with deep and machine learning techniques. Recent studies on an improvement of the computational efficiency and accuracy of propagation prediction models were also reviewed, in addition to an overview of some of the traditional statistical models. Furthermore, some of the new techniques in propagation prediction were described. The results of these studies explain that techniques using ray tracing produce better results than other techniques.

A New Look at the Dirichlet Distribution: Robustness, Clustering, and Both Together

AbstractCompositional data have peculiar characteristics that pose significant challenges to traditional statistical methods and models. Within this framework, we use a convenient mode parametrized Dirichlet distribution across multiple fields of statistics. In particular, we propose finite mixtures of unimodal Dirichlet (UD) distributions for model-based clustering and classification. Then, we introduce the contaminated UD (CUD) distribution, a heavy-tailed generalization of the UD distribution that allows for a more flexible tail behavior in the presence of atypical observations. Thirdly, we propose finite mixtures of CUD distributions to jointly account for the presence of clusters and atypical points in the data. Parameter estimation is carried out by directly maximizing the maximum likelihood or by using an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Two analyses are conducted on simulated data to illustrate the effects of atypical observations on parameter estimation and data classification, and how our proposals address both aspects. Furthermore, two real datasets are investigated and the results obtained via our models are discussed.

Enhancing earth dam slope stability prediction with integrated AI and statistical models

This study introduces an innovative approach integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and statistical modelling techniques to enhance the prediction of earth dam slope stability. Utilizing advanced methodologies, including Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Classification and Regression Random Forests (CRRF), and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), this research provides a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for slope stability prediction. The integration of AI with traditional statistical models significantly improves the predictive accuracy over conventional methods. The findings reveal the model's capability in terms of reliability and precision in predicting slope stability, demonstrating its potential as a powerful tool in geo-engineering. Additionally, this work highlights the effective application of AI in complex geo-environmental systems analysis, opening new avenues for research and practice in the field.

Early warning systems for financial distress: A machine learning approach to corporate risk mitigation

This research explores the development of an early warning system for corporate financial distress using machine learning techniques to address key challenges in corporate risk mitigation. The main objective is to enhance predictive accuracy by integrating financial and non-financial data, addressing class imbalance, and ensuring model interpretability. The research design involves the formulation of a new machine learning model, leveraging cost-sensitive learning and feature selection, and is tested with a numerical example using logistic regression. Methodologically, the study adopts a data-driven approach that incorporates diverse financial ratios, macroeconomic variables, and market sentiment indicators to predict corporate distress. The numerical results from a basic logistic regression model demonstrate poor performance, especially in handling class imbalance, revealing limitations in traditional statistical models. However, the research suggests that machine learning methods, particularly ensemble learning with cost-sensitive algorithms, offer superior predictive accuracy and practical applicability. The study concludes that integrating advanced techniques and diverse datasets leads to more reliable early warning systems, with significant implications for corporate governance and financial risk management. Future research should explore more sophisticated machine learning models and extend real-world applications across various industries and economic conditions.

A Novel Artificial Intelligence Prediction Process of Concrete Dam Deformation Based on a Stacking Model Fusion Method

Deformation effectively represents the structural integrity of concrete dams and acts as a clear indicator of their operational performance. Predicting deformation is critical for monitoring the safety of hydraulic structures. To this end, this paper proposes an artificial intelligence-based process for predicting concrete dam deformation. Initially, using the principles of feature engineering, the preprocessing of deformation safety monitoring data is conducted. Subsequently, employing a stacking model fusion method, a novel prediction process embedded with multiple artificial intelligence algorithms is developed. Moreover, three new performance indicators—a superiority evaluation indicator, an accuracy evaluation indicator, and a generalization evaluation indicator—are introduced to provide a comprehensive assessment of the model’s effectiveness. Finally, an engineering example demonstrates that the ensemble artificial intelligence method proposed herein outperforms traditional statistical models and single machine learning models in both fitting and predictive accuracy, thereby providing a scientific and effective foundation for concrete dam deformation prediction and safety monitoring.

Machine learning algorithms for predicting COVID-19 mortality in Ethiopia

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global public health crisis, continues to pose challenges despite preventive measures. The daily rise in COVID-19 cases is concerning, and the testing process is both time-consuming and costly. While several models have been created to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients, only a few have shown sufficient accuracy. Machine learning algorithms offer a promising approach to data-driven prediction of clinical outcomes, surpassing traditional statistical modeling. Leveraging machine learning (ML) algorithms could potentially provide a solution for predicting mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop and validate machine-learning models for accurately predicting mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Ethiopia.MethodsOur study involved analyzing electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients who were admitted to public hospitals in Ethiopia. Specifically, we developed seven different machine learning models to predict COVID-19 patient mortality. These models included J48 decision tree, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighborhood (k-NN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and logistic regression (LR). We then compared the performance of these models using data from a cohort of 696 patients through statistical analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, we utilized metrics derived from the confusion matrix such as sensitivity, specificity, precision, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC).ResultsThe study included a total of 696 patients, with a higher number of females (440 patients, accounting for 63.2%) compared to males. The median age of the participants was 35.0 years old, with an interquartile range of 18–79. After conducting different feature selection procedures, 23 features were examined, and identified as predictors of mortality, and it was determined that gender, Intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and alcohol drinking/addiction were the top three predictors of COVID-19 mortality. On the other hand, loss of smell, loss of taste, and hypertension were identified as the three lowest predictors of COVID-19 mortality. The experimental results revealed that the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm outperformed than other machine learning algorithms, achieving an accuracy of 95.25%, sensitivity of 95.30%, precision of 92.7%, specificity of 93.30%, F1 score 93.98% and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 96.90%. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the k-NN algorithm in predicting COVID-19 outcomes based on the selected features.ConclusionOur study has developed an innovative model that utilizes hospital data to accurately predict the mortality risk of COVID-19 patients. The main objective of this model is to prioritize early treatment for high-risk patients and optimize strained healthcare systems during the ongoing pandemic. By integrating machine learning with comprehensive hospital databases, our model effectively classifies patients' mortality risk, enabling targeted medical interventions and improved resource management.Among the various methods tested, the K-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm demonstrated the highest accuracy, allowing for early identification of high-risk patients. Through KNN feature identification, we identified 23 predictors that significantly contribute to predicting COVID-19 mortality. The top five predictors are gender (female), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, alcohol drinking, smoking, and symptoms of headache and chills.This advancement holds great promise in enhancing healthcare outcomes and decision-making during the pandemic. By providing services and prioritizing patients based on the identified predictors, healthcare facilities and providers can improve the chances of survival for individuals. This model provides valuable insights that can guide healthcare professionals in allocating resources and delivering appropriate care to those at highest risk.

A Data-Driven Pandemic Simulator with Reinforcement Learning

After the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak erupted, it swiftly spread globally and triggered a severe public health crisis in 2019. To contain the virus’s spread, several countries implemented various lockdown measures. As the governments faced this unprecedented challenge, understanding the impact of lockdown policies became paramount. The goal of addressing the pandemic crisis is to devise prudent policies that strike a balance between safeguarding lives and maintaining economic stability. Traditional mathematical and statistical models for studying virus transmission only offer macro-level predictions of epidemic development and often overlook individual variations’ impact, therefore failing to reflect the role of government decisions. To address this challenge, we propose an integrated framework that combines agent-based modeling (ABM) and deep Q-network (DQN) techniques. This framework enables a more comprehensive analysis and optimization of epidemic control strategies while considering real human behavior. We construct a pandemic simulator based on the ABM method, accurately simulating agents’ daily activities, interactions, and the dynamic spread of the virus. Additionally, we employ a data-driven approach and adjust the model through real statistical data to enhance its effectiveness. Subsequently, we integrated ABM into a decision-making framework using reinforcement learning techniques to explore the most effective strategies. In experiments, we validated the model’s effectiveness by simulating virus transmission across different countries globally. In this model, we obtained decision outcomes when governments focused on various factors. Our research findings indicate that our model serves as a valuable tool for decision-makers, enabling them to formulate prudent and rational policies.

Solar Radiation Forecasting: A Systematic Meta-Review of Current Methods and Emerging Trends

Effective solar forecasting has become a critical topic in the scholarly literature in recent years due to the rapid growth of photovoltaic energy production worldwide and the inherent variability of this source of energy. The need to optimise energy systems, ensure power continuity, and balance energy supply and demand is driving the continuous development of forecasting methods and approaches based on meteorological data or photovoltaic plant characteristics. This article presents the results of a meta-review of the solar forecasting literature, including the current state of knowledge and methodological discussion. It presents a comprehensive set of forecasting methods, evaluates current classifications, and proposes a new synthetic typology. The article emphasises the increasing role of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques in improving forecast accuracy, alongside traditional statistical and physical models. It explores the challenges of hybrid and ensemble models, which combine multiple forecasting approaches to enhance performance. The paper addresses emerging trends in solar forecasting research, such as the integration of big data and advanced computational tools. Additionally, from a methodological perspective, the article outlines a rigorous approach to the meta-review research procedure, addresses the scientific challenges associated with conducting bibliometric research, and highlights best practices and principles. The article’s relevance consists of providing up-to-date knowledge on solar forecasting, along with insights on emerging trends, future research directions, and anticipating implications for theory and practice.

Identifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of PM2.5 concentration and its implications for national sustainable development experimental zone of China

The accelerated pace of urbanization and industrialization in China has given rise to air pollution in the form of PM2.5. This pollution poses significant threats to the atmospheric environment and human health. Traditional statistical models often lack the required data precision for medium or small-scale epidemiological and pollutant exposure studies. Therefore, alternative approaches must be developed. This study employs the Random Forest (RF) model, utilizing measured PM2.5 concentration and auxiliary data, to simulate PM2.5 concentration with 1 km spatial resolution for 2015–2019. The results showed that: (1) The RF model was sufficiently accurate with a 10-fold CV, resulting in a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.75, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) measuring at 13.24 μg/m3, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.12 μg/m3 (2) A notable variation and dynamic pattern in the concentration of PM2.5 were observed. The geographical distribution displayed elevated levels in the northern regions and subdued levels in the southern regions, with the most elevated PM2.5 values recorded in Xinjiang and Northern China. (3) Pollution levels in the five major urban agglomerations, ranked from high to low, were as follows: the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), the Guanzhong Plain (GZP), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Chengdu-Chongqing (CY), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD). (4) The PM2.5 concentration of the whole country generally showed a downward trend. These findings offer valuable scientific insights to support atmospheric environmental protection and epidemiological research endeavors. Finally, policy implications for the coordinated development of the economy and environment in the national sustainable development experimental zone major urban agglomerations were proposed to achieve more equitable and balanced development. This paper provides policy recommendations and empirical evidence for further promoting environmental balance in national sustainable development experimental zones.

Ensemble empirical mode decomposition based deep learning models for forecasting river flow time series

River flow forecasting is important for flood prediction and effective utilization of water resources. This study proposed a comprehensive methodology that simultaneously enables the creation of multiple datasets and a comparison of multiple learning models for forecasting river flows. First, the data characteristics of the river flow time series were assessed based on its nature and pattern characteristics. Second, data decomposition was made for simplifying the complex data into decomposed modes. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) was used for this purpose that provides intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In addition, as benchmark, traditional time series decomposition was also applied over the complex data. Third, based on their data characteristics, the IMFs were combined into different components. These components along with the traditional time series decomposition create multiple datasets. Then, the components from the different datasets were forecasted using deep learning models, mainly BPNN (Back-Propagation Neural Network), CNN (Convoluted Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory). Then, ensemble prediction was used to get the final output. For verification and benchmark purpose, we have also used statistical models like SARIMA over the datasets. A comprehensive evaluation and model comparisons were made using Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, k-fold cross validation and with the results of Prophet. In addition, the temporal convolution network (TCN) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) were also modelled. Finally, all the DL modelling was performed for two data situations: with missing data deleted and missing data imputed. An empirical case study was done considering the average of daily time series data of Neeleswaram Hydrological Observation (HO) station over the Periyar river of South India for the period 2017–2021. The empirical assessment was made using several tests for all the different datasets and different learning models for further insights. Our results indicate that the deep learning-based models offer better predictions for complex time series in comparison to traditional statistical models. The DL models applied on the original time series data provided robust predictions with good performance such as low RMSE and high correlation values. However, the DL models’ performances are not enhanced through integration with time series decomposition and EEMD. Furthermore, the empirical results and the k-fold cross validation-based test indicate that all the DL models show equivalent performances. Interestingly, the DL models show superior performance over Prophet.

Comparing traditional and causal inference methodologies for evaluating impacts of long-term air pollution exposure on hospitalization with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) present a growing public health burden in the United States. One actionable risk factor for ADRD is air pollution: multiple studies have found associations between air pollution and exacerbation of ADRD. Our study builds on previous studies by applying modern statistical causal inference methodologies-generalized propensity score (GPS) weighting and matching-on a large, longitudinal dataset. We follow 50 million Medicare enrollees to investigate impacts of three air pollutants-fine particular matter (PM${}_{2.5}$), nitrogen dioxide (NO${}_2$), and summer ozone (O${}_3$)-on elderly patients' rate of first hospitalization with ADRD diagnosis. Similar to previous studies using traditional statistical models, our results found increased hospitalization risks due to increased PM${}_{2.5}$ and NO${}_2$ exposure, with less conclusive results for O${}_3$. In particular, our GPS weighting analysis finds IQR increases in PM${}_{2.5}$, NO${}_2$, or O${}_3$ exposure results in hazard ratios of 1.108 (95% CI: 1.097-1.119), 1.058 (1.049-1.067), or 1.045 (1.036-1.054), respectively. GPS matching results are similar for PM${}_{2.5}$ and NO${}_2$ with attenuated effects for O${}_3$. Our results strengthen arguments that long-term PM${}_{2.5}$ and NO${}_2$ exposure increases risk of hospitalization with ADRD diagnosis. Additionally, we highlight strengths and limitations of causal inference methodologies in observational studies with continuous treatments. Keywords: Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, air pollution, Medicare, causal inference, generalized propensity score.

PREDICTING STOCK MARKET TRENDS WITH PYTHON

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have revolutionized the realm of stock market prediction, offering sophisticated tools to analyze vast volumes of data and anticipate market trends. This article provides a comprehensive overview of AI techniques, focusing on Python as the preferred platform for implementation. Beginning with an exploration of AI fundamentals, including machine learning and deep learning, it delves into various techniques employed for stock market prediction. Traditional statistical models such as linear regression and ARIMA are under scientific discussion alongside advanced ML algorithms like random forests and support vector machines. Moreover, the article highlights the efficacy of deep learning methodologies, particularly recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and long & short-term memory (LSTM) networks, in capturing temporal dependencies within stock market data. We also explored innovative developments such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for their potential in revealing hidden patterns influencing price movements. Throughout the discussion, we concluded that Python emerges as the preferred programming language due to its simplicity, extensive libraries, and versatility. Key libraries such as Pandas, NumPy, Scikit-learn, and TensorFlow play a pivotal role in data manipulation, preprocessing, and model development. The article outlines a structured approach to building predictive models, encompassing data collection, preprocessing, feature engineering, model selection, training, evaluation, and prediction. Despite the advancements in AI, challenges persist in stock market prediction, including market volatility, data quality issues, complexity of influencing factors, and risks of overfitting. Ultimately, we may witness AI and Python synergy, which empowers analysts and investors with deeper insights, enabling informed decision-making amidst the complexities of financial markets.

Forecasting VIX using Bayesian deep learning

AbstractRecently, deep learning techniques are gradually replacing traditional statistical and machine learning models as the first choice for price forecasting tasks. In this paper, we leverage probabilistic deep learning for inferring the volatility index VIX. We employ the probabilistic counterpart of WaveNet, Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and Transformers. We show that TCN outperforms all models with an RMSE around 0.189. In addition, it has been well known that modern neural networks provide inaccurate uncertainty estimates. For solving this problem, we use the standard deviation scaling to calibrate the networks. Furthermore, we found out that MNF with Gaussian prior outperforms Reparameterization Trick and Flipout models in terms of precision and uncertainty predictions. Finally, we claim that MNF with Cauchy and LogUniform prior distributions yield well-calibrated TCN, and Transformer and WaveNet networks being the former that best infer the VIX values for one and five-step-ahead forecasting, and the probabilistic Transformer model yields an adequate forecasting for the COVID-19 pandemic period.

Explainable Boosting Machine approach identifies risk factors for acute renal failure

BackgroundRisk stratification and outcome prediction are crucial for intensive care resource planning. In addressing the large data sets of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, we employed the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a novel machine learning model, to identify determinants of acute kidney injury (AKI) in these patients. AKI significantly impacts outcomes in the critically ill.MethodsAn analysis of 3572 ICU patients was conducted. Variables such as average central venous pressure (CVP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), age, gender, and comorbidities were examined. This analysis combined traditional statistical methods with the EBM to gain a detailed understanding of AKI risk factors.ResultsOur analysis revealed chronic kidney disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, liver disease, and anemia as significant comorbidities influencing AKI risk, with liver disease and anemia being particularly impactful. Surgical factors were also key; lower GI surgery heightened AKI risk, while neurosurgery was associated with a reduced risk. EBM identified four crucial variables affecting AKI prediction: anemia, liver disease, and average CVP increased AKI risk, whereas neurosurgery decreased it. Age was a progressive risk factor, with risk escalating after the age of 50 years. Hemodynamic instability, marked by a MAP below 65 mmHg, was strongly linked to AKI, showcasing a threshold effect at 60 mmHg. Intriguingly, average CVP was a significant predictor, with a critical threshold at 10.7 mmHg.ConclusionUsing an Explainable Boosting Machine enhance the precision in AKI risk factors in ICU patients, providing a more nuanced understanding of known AKI risks. This approach allows for refined predictive modeling of AKI, effectively overcoming the limitations of traditional statistical models.

A new multi-objective ensemble wind speed forecasting system: Mixed-frequency interval-valued modeling paradigm

Improving wind speed prediction is essential for increasing the use of wind energy and promoting sustainable utilization of resources. Most previous studies relied on single-valued data with a common frequency, resulting in limited wind energy utilization. To fill this research gap and strengthen the precision of wind speed prediction, this study proposes a new multi-objective ensemble forecasting system based on a mixed-frequency interval-valued modeling paradigm for power system decision-making. The system comprises three modules: interval-valued data preprocessing module, mixed-frequency interval-valued forecasting module, and multi-objective ensemble module. Firstly, to reduce the data complexity by preprocessing the mixed-frequency interval-valued wind speed data, an interval-valued data preprocessing module is designed. Then, different types of prediction models, including a mixed data sampling model, two artificial intelligence models, and a traditional statistical model, are used to predict each subsequence in the mixed-frequency interval-valued forecasting module. Finally, a multi-objective ensemble module is designed to ensemble the interval-valued prediction results of each sub-model, and the final interval-valued wind speed forecast results are obtained. The proposed system obtained IMAE values of 0.4634 and 0.3452 at sites from Inner Mongolia and Penglai, China, respectively; this provides a significant tool for wind speed prediction.

Machine learning in predicting pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer using MRI: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

To evaluate the performance of machine learning models in predicting pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with rectal cancer using magnetic resonance imaging. We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science for studies published before March 2024. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) was used to assess the methodological quality of the included studies, random-effects models were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity, I2 values were used for heterogeneity measurements, and subgroup analyses were carried out to detect potential sources of heterogeneity. A total of 1699 patients from 24 studies were included. For machine learning models in predicting pCR to nCRT, the meta-analysis calculated a pooled area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.93), pooled sensitivity of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.74-0.89), and pooled specificity of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.80-0.91). We investigated 6 studies that mainly contributed to heterogeneity. After performing meta-analysis again excluding these 6 studies, the heterogeneity was significantly reduced. In subgroup analysis, the pooled AUC of the deep-learning model was 0.93 and 0.89 for the traditional statistical model; the pooled AUC of studies that used diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) was 0.90 and 0.92 in studies that did not use DWI; the pooled AUC of studies conducted in China was 0.93, and was 0.83 in studies conducted in other countries. This systematic study showed that machine learning has promising potential in predicting pCR to nCRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Compared to traditional machine learning models, although deep-learning-based studies are less predominant and more heterogeneous, they are able to obtain higher AUC. Compared to traditional machine learning models, deep-learning-based studies are able to obtain higher AUC, although they are less predominant and more heterogeneous. Together with clinical information, machine learning-based models may bring us closer towards precision medicine.