In today’s energy industry, the development of clean energy has become a global concern. As an important clean energy technology, photovoltaic power generation (PV) is widely used in various countries and regions, helping to reduce the dependence on traditional fossil energy sources and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Existing studies have some shortcomings in terms of factors affecting distributed PV grid-connected capacity. First, previous studies tend to focus on the influence of a single factor on the grid-connected capacity of distributed PV, ignoring the interaction effects among multiple factors. Second, the sample scope in existing studies is relatively narrow, often limited to specific regions or countries, and lacks comprehensive regional comparative analysis. In addition, previous studies often do not fully consider the moderating effect of carbon emission intensity on the influencing factors. Based on the above deficiencies, this study aims to build a regression model by analyzing panel data of central municipalities and provinces including Heilongjiang, Shandong and Beijing over the past three years, and construct an interaction model based on the interaction term. The empirical results show that effective sunshine hours, average feed-in tariff and annual electricity consumption are the main factors affecting the grid-connected capacity of distributed PV with a positive effect. The regional heterogeneity analysis also finds that carbon emission intensity enhances the impact of each factor on distributed PV grid-connected capacity. The regulation effect analysis confirms that the average feed-in tariff and annual electricity consumption have a regulation effect. With the results of this study, we fill the knowledge gaps left by previous studies and provide a new perspective to explore the influencing factors of distributed PV. A deeper understanding of the impact of these factors on distributed PV capacity helps us to better understand and optimize the potential of PV generation. In addition, our findings provide policy makers with recommendations and guidance on how to promote distributed PV generation, thereby contributing to the sustainable development of the clean energy sector.
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