A generation expansion planning method considering conditional value-at-risk

Abstract

Abstract The uncertainty of load forecasting can lead to certain risks in generation expansion planning. Different from the traditional large-capacity unit planning in the past, renewable energy has the characteristics of small single-machine capacity and fast construction speed, etc. The uncertainty of load forecasting will have a more significant impact on the results of generation expansion planning including renewable energy. For this reason, this paper proposes a generation expansion planning idea considering load forecast uncertainty based on conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Firstly, scenario technology is used to simulate the uncertainty, and CVaR is introduced to quantify the risk of generation expansion planning. Then, considering the coordinated development of traditional and renewable energy sources, a generation expansion planning model that considers risk is established to minimize the total costs. Finally, the effectiveness of the model was verified through a case study, and this model has reference significance for balancing the economy and reliability in generation expansion planning.