Trade Balance Research Articles

The Potential for High‑tech Exports from Selected EU Member States to China and the Related Opportunities Arising from the Belt and Road Initiative

The EU’s economic relations with China are characterised by a significant trade deficit. Enhancing EU exports of high-tech products, in particular, to China is the best way out of this imbalance. In doing so, EU countries can take advantage of the opportunities provided by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that intends to improve connectivity between Europe and Asia. Objective: This study aims to identify the untapped potential for high-tech exports of selected EU countries in trade with China and to evaluate the opportunities arising from the BRI in utilising this potential. Research Design & Methods: To assess the overall high-tech export potential of selected EU countries to China, the export gap was calculated using the concept of revealed comparative advantages. Findings: Among the examined EU countries, Hungary and the Czech Republic were found to have the greatest high-tech export growth potential to China. The largest export gaps were recorded in electrical machinery and equipment. Implications & Recommendations: The findings of the study can be used by European businesses to adjust their export strategies. It can also be used by government institutions of the studied countries when designing their economic and trade policies, particularly vis-à-vis China and the BRI initiative, within the field of supporting infrastructure projects, as well as high-tech industries. Contribution & Value Added: The study contributes to the literature on the potential of EU export growth to China that has not been sufficiently explored yet. The novelty of the study is in identifying specific high-tech commodities with the highest potential for export to China.

US monetary policy and business cycles in developing countries

The article examines modeling the impact of news shocks of US monetary policy on developing countries. The study analyzes the transmission mechanism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate news shock. The authors argue that the volatility of macroeconomic indicators in emerging economies can be explained by changes in monetary policy in other countries, and highlight the main channels of influence: financial sector indicators and trade indicators. In this paper the authors first use the LSDV-estimator of the panel vector autoregression and identify unexpected and news shocks. To achieve this goal, quarterly data was collected from the first quarter of 1998 to the third quarter of 2017 for Russia, along with data starting from the first quarter of 1995 for several developing countries. The results obtained indicate that the expected tightening of US monetary policy leads to a decrease in output, investment, and weakening of exchange rate in Russia. The monetary news regarding an increase in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate in two quarters also results in a short-term increase in trade balance and interest rates. News about future economic developments affects macroeconomic indicators up to two quarters before the implementation of monetary policy changes. Additionally, the news shock accounts for up to 11% of the variation in macroeconomic indicators in Russia. Accordingly, the monetary policy news shock is found to be as significant as an unexpected shock. The paper concludes with the analysis of the role played by various financial and trade channels.

Küreselleşme sonrası Türkiye’de dış ticaret açığının reel efektif döviz kuru ve dış ticaret hadleriyle modellenmesi: NARDL yaklaşımı

Fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate and changes in the terms of trade can cause predictable or unpredictable changes in the overall economy. The most important consequences of these fluctuations and changes are the effects of regional or global economic crises on macroeconomic variables (employment, unemployment, inflation, GDP, balance of payments, foreign trade deficit). Anticipating the consequences of the dynamic effects of these changes is crucial for policymakers. This study analyzes the effects of changes in CPI-based real effective exchange rates and terms of trade on the trade deficit in 1994-2022. Since the impact of CPI-based real effective exchange rate and terms of trade changes on the trade deficit is likely to be asymmetric, the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method is used in this study, and it is concluded that the factor that affects the trade deficit the most is the decline in the terms of trade. One of the most important reasons why the foreign trade deficit does not decrease at the desired level, even in periods of depreciation of the TL, is the decline in the country’s terms of trade.

Consumer likelihood to purchase farmed marine finfish with potential for commercialization in the United States

Local aquaculture production of marine finfish has potential to meet the domestic seafood demand and contribute to reduction of the United States (U.S.) seafood trade deficit. The United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, along with other research programs, has developed aquaculture production technologies for warmwater marine finfish species with potential for commercial production. To understand the marketing opportunities for the candidate species, an online survey of 818 seafood consumers in the southeastern U.S. was conducted to explore their awareness, familiarity, frequency of consumption, location of purchase, and likelihood of purchasing the species of interest. A binary logit model was specified to explore the factors that influenced consumers likelihood to purchase Atlantic cod, black sea bass, California flounder, California yellowtail, Florida pompano, redfish, red snapper, southern flounder, spotted seatrout, striped bass, summer flounder, and white seabass, the 12 species for which there were at least 100 survey responses. This study focused on consumers likelihood to purchase the candidate species at grocery stores and restaurants. The results show that consumers who placed high importance on source of the fish and quality were more likely to buy various candidate species including red snapper, striped bass, Atlantic cod, southern flounder, Florida pompano, California yellowtail, black sea bass, California flounder, and white seabass. Respondents who considered price to be important were more likely to buy California flounder, redfish, red snapper, white seabass, black sea bass (at grocery stores only), and summer flounder (at grocery stores only). Frequent consumers of Atlantic cod, southern flounder, California flounder, redfish, summer flounder (at grocery stores only) and California yellowtail (at grocery stores only) were more likely to purchase these species. Frequency of consumption, seasonality in consumption, and demographic characteristics, including income, age, race, and state of residence, influenced consumers likelihood to purchase various species of interest.

Impact of short- and long-term factors on the growth of gross agricultural products in Azerbaijan: ARDL analysis

Purpose. The main purpose of this research is to assess the factors affecting the gross agricultural products in Azerbaijan in the short and long term. Methodology / approach. This study uses an Autoregressive Distributional Lag (ARDL) model to analyse the relationship between gross agricultural output and total government expenditure on agriculture, the volume of credit used in agriculture, direct investment in fixed assets in agriculture, and the country’s net agricultural exports. In our study, unlike most existing research, the variables are integrated in the second order, which increases the importance of this study. Results. The results of the study indicate that, despite the “crowding in” effect created by the state budget expenditures as the main factor in the short term, the effect on the growth of gross agricultural products in the long term is not so important. Credit resources and net exports have a negative effect in this relationship. In the long term, investment in fixed capital is a crucial factor in the growth of production. In general, the positive balance of net exports is a “mirror” reflection of investments, especially innovation-oriented investments. Considering that the predominance of imports in the total demand for agricultural products significantly reduces the multiplier effect that can occur in the field in general, it minimises the multiplier effect of the total expenditure. From this point of view, foreign investments can play an important role in creating a positive balance in the trade balance of agriculture. Originality / scientific novelty. The scientific value of the research is the selection of main factors as direct contributions to the growth of the gross agricultural products and their effects. Through the ARDL program, we determined what factors are short-term and which are long-term, and we analysed the causes and consequences of these dependencies and put forward relevant proposals. Practical value / implications. The practical value of the research lies in the given proposals that can directly affect the net export of agricultural products and create positive changes in its balance. Because, massive investments, especially foreign investments, can modernise the rural economy in a short period of time and, accordingly, not only increase the competitiveness of its products in foreign markets, but also raise the level of self-sufficiency.

ENSURING ECONOMIC SECURITY: COMPARISON OF EU MEMBER STATES AND UKRAINE

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comprehensive study of economic security in the EU Member States and Ukraine, to identify differences and to propose targeted policy interventions based on these differences. Methodology. The study uses a quantitative strategy that assigns numerical ratings to countries based on their performance against predefined thresholds for various economic security indicators. These indicators include industrial security, demographic security, energy security, foreign trade security, investment and innovation security, macroeconomic security, food security, social security and financial security. The study uses data from a variety of sources and applies a ranking system to reflect the level of economic security in each category. Results. The analysis revealed significant differences in the levels of economic security between EU Member States and Ukraine. The main findings include differences in agricultural efficiency, healthcare system efficiency, renewable energy consumption, trade balance, research and development expenditure, and socio-economic factors. For example, countries such as Belgium and Ireland have high yields, while Cyprus and Romania have much lower yields. Life expectancy and the quality of healthcare also vary: Spain and Sweden lead the way, while Bulgaria and Ukraine lag behind. Practical implications. The findings suggest the need for targeted policies and technological advances to improve economic security. For the younger generation, marketing strategies based on brand equity and exclusivity can continue even during economic downturns. For the older generation, strategies that focus on value for money or lower prices may be more effective. Understanding these metrics can help businesses align their strategies with national economic priorities and identify potential areas for investment and growth. Value / Оriginality. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a detailed comparative analysis of economic security in the EU Member States and Ukraine, filling a gap in the understanding of the multifaceted aspects of economic security in these regions.

Trend analysis of cotton production and trade

The aim of this study is to analyse the cultivation areas, production amounts and foreign trade data of cotton plant in the world and Turkey from an economic point of view. The data on Turkey's cotton cultivation area, cotton production and fiber cotton import and export data for the 20-year period 2003-2022 were obtained from the Food Agricultural Organization (FAO). The data set was transferred to MS Excel spreadsheets and the trend analysis technique was used in MS Excel programme to obtain the trends in cotton cultivation area, cotton production amount and near future forecast values for eight years between 2023-2030. In addition, for the foreign trade balance data obtained from fiber cotton import and export data for the period 2000-2022, the change trends of the 23-year period and the eight-year near future forecast values between 2023-2030 were calculated. Cotton cultivation area has a decreasing trend between 2023-2030. While the forecast value of cotton cultivation area for 2023 is 417 thousand hectares, this value is predicted to decrease to 373 thousand 722 hectares in 2030. The trend in the amount of cotton production has a decreasing trend after 2022 and it is predicted that there will be no break in the amount of production between 2023-2030. The estimated foreign trade deficit in fiber cotton for 2023 is 964,516 tonnes and for 2030 is 1,106,672 tonnes. The main reasons for the decrease in cotton cultivation areas are the increases in input prices such as fertilisers, pesticides and seeds. In order to eliminate the foreign trade deficit in cotton, studies should be carried out to enter new markets and increase the share in existing markets. In addition, it should be aimed to create a sustainable cotton sector by investing in R&D activities and entering new markets.

The Relationship Between International Trade and Tourism Revenues in Türkiye

The tourism industry is a critical sector in Türkiye’s economy and plays a significant role in reducing the country's trade deficit. This research paper presents a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry and international tourism in Türkiye. The research paper conducts an empirical analysis of pertinent variables and investigates the association between international trade and tourism revenues. Utilizing the VAR model with data spanning from 2000 to 2021, the study scrutinizes the linkage between the two variables. Firstly, the study checks the stationarity of the variables, then uses the Johansen cointegration test to detect whether there exists a long-term relationship between the variables. Next, the direction of the relationship is determined through the Toda Yamamoto causality analysis. The results show that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The results obtained from the causality analysis also show that there is a reciprocal causality relationship between the rate of openness to trade, which is used as an indicator of international trade, and tourism revenues. Finally, the variance decomposition shows that tourism revenues are an important factor in international trade and this effect gradually increases over time.

Research on China-Sri Lanka Economic and Trade Cooperation Based on SWOT Analysis

This paper systematically explores the economic and trade cooperation between China and Sri Lanka based on the SWOT analysis framework. Against the backdrop of globalization and the “Belt and Road” initiative, China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation shows great potential and broad prospects. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper comprehensively analyzes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation. The strengths include complementary geographical locations, complementary trade structures, and a solid foundation of political mutual trust; the weaknesses mainly lie in trade imbalances, unstable investment environments, and cultural and communication barriers; opportunities mainly arise from the promotion of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the deepening of regional cooperation, and changes in the global trade pattern; threats mainly come from changes in the international political and economic environment, external shocks such as pandemics, and the rise of trade protectionism. Finally, the paper proposes targeted strategic suggestions based on the actual situation, aiming to promote the sustainable and healthy development of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation and enhance the economic prosperity and well-being of the two countries.

The Situation of Cross-Border Transportation of Goods through the 2nd Friendship Bridge Savannakhet-Mukdahan

This study is about the situation of cross-border transportation of goods through the 2nd Friendship Bridge Savannakhet-Mukdahan. The purpose of the study is to 1) study the situation of development of transportation and logistics in the friendship bridge, 2) The condition of transporting goods through the friendship bridge, and 3) Difficulties of entrepreneurs using the 2nd friendship bridge service, the population represented in the study was the driver of a truck that passed through the Savannakhet-Mukdahan International Checkpoint, Specific types of imported goods a total of 138 people were identified. The statistics used for data analysis is descriptive statistics to find frequencies and percentages. The results of the study show that the world bank has determined the logistics performance index: LPI and published the results of the comparative efficiency ranking of 160 countries. In 2018, the Lao PDR was ranked 82nd in the world with a score of 2,8 and in which ranked 69th of 160 counties in terms of the ability to trach and trace consignments with an average score of 2,9. Laos can now export and distribute goods to Thailand with other countries in Asia and Europe: China, Hungary, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Singapore, Japan, Italy and France using Road NO 12 and Route 9. This is an important strategic route due to the ability to transport goods to countries in the region, which is a wholesale market and a channel to import cheap machinery, equipment, or inputs, making locally produced goods cheaper, which will increase domestic competitiveness and increase domestic competitiveness. Exports and imports across the 2nd Friendship Bridge, a five-year period from 2016-2020, see a year-on-year trade deficit due to the need to use agricultural inputs to boost agricultural production and boost agricultural exports in the future. The problems in transportation of goods in practice, the country has not yet been able to take full advantage of cross-border transport via the 2nd Friendship Bridge. Due to climate change, which is a barrier to delayed transportation, the overall infrastructure is still incomplete as there are still some areas of the road that need to be constructed and improved, along with the problems and obstacles of transport rules and regulations, such as: Problems with one-stop inspection, difficulties in customs clearance procedures and convenience of transport officials.

Rethinking the China-U.S. Trade balance from 2001–2020 based on emergy perspective

In the year 2018, escalating trade imbalances between China and the United States led to a trade war over tariffs and trade policies that garnered global attention. While trade deficits are primarily reflected in currency terms, trade involves a broader exchange of different resources. Hence, this study employs Emergy Accounting approach (EMA), an environmental quality-oriented assessment method, to collect official statistical data from both countries and consider differences in statistical data weight. Utilizing the NEAD V2.0 database, this research calculates and discusses the total emergy flow, trade imbalances, and structures in China-U.S. trade from 2001 to 2020. Additionally, it computes and analyzes emergy indicators, delving into the dynamic changes in the emergy values of various categories of goods. The results indicate a gradual balance in the emergy trade deficit between China and the United States, with both countries benefiting from the trade. Specifically, China benefits from importing raw materials from the United States, while the U.S. gains from importing inexpensive embodied labor from China. Considering differences in data statistical calibers and applying the EMA contribute to a more accurate understanding of the trade situation and the correction or prevention of errors. The Emergy theory provides a new perspective for a comprehensive assessment of trade relationships. China and the United States have the potential to establish a fairer, more balanced, collaborative, and sustainable trade relationship, contributing to global sustainable development.

The impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on aggregate output in Pakistan: robust evidence from the RALS cointegration test.

Over the past three decades, Pakistan's energy consumption has surged due to industrialization, population growth, and development activities. To meet the escalating energy demands, the country has primarily relied on thermal power projects, which are financially burdensome and environmentally detrimental, compared to hydropower projects. This reliance exposes Pakistan to global oil price shocks and environmental degradation. To address this dilemma, this empirical research investigates the impact of both non-energy factors (labour and capital) and energy-specific factors (renewable and non-renewable) on Pakistan's aggregate output, using annual time-series data from 1980 to 2021. The analysis employs the newly established Residual Augmented Least Square (RALS) cointegration test and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology to estimate the long-term cointegrating relationship among the examined variables. The empirical findings demonstrate that both non-energy and energy-specific factors positively and significantly influence Pakistan's long-term aggregate output. However, petroleum consumption exerts a positive but insignificant influence on Pakistan's long-term aggregate output. The study recommends diversifying the energy supply mix to include more hydroelectricity, non-hydroelectric renewables (mainly solar and wind), and natural gas. Specifically, transitioning from imported, expensive, and more greenhouse gas (GHG)-generating petroleum products to domestically produced natural gas could potentially reduce Pakistan's trade deficit and its vulnerability to global oil price shocks. Besides the economic benefits, shifting from non-renewable energy sources (specifically oil) to renewable energy would enhance Pakistan's image and increase its geopolitical influence over neighboring countries. Additionally, the study emphasizes the need to encourage private sector participation in renewable energy projects and suggests implementing effective carbon tax policies to mitigate CO2 emissions and foster economic growth.

UKRAINE AND REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA IN COOPERATION WITH THE EU AFTER 2014 YEAR: MODELS AND IMPACTS

Abstract. The paper is devoted to solving the problem of co-integration between Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova in the context of foreign trade. The study of co-integration makes it possible to determine common trends in the development of foreign trade and, based on the analysis of the dynamics of the development of one country, to forecast the development of foreign trade in another country. The study of the main indicators of foreign trade was carried out: volumes of exports, imports, trade balance. The share of export-import operations with the EU in the total volume of foreign trade of Ukraine and Moldova was chosen as the studied indicator. The article proposes to consider cointegrations both between long-term trends, which characterize the trend of foreign trade development, and between short-term trends, which reflect the cyclical component. A co-integration research mechanism has been developed, which includes three blocks: a block of analysis of literary sources, a block of mathematical tools, and a block of applied use. The use of decomposition models, trend models, spectral analysis, orthogonality indicators and pairwise correlations is proposed as a mathematical toolkit. Using the Foster-Stewart method, an analysis of the presence of a trend in the variance and average was carried out. The above calculations showed the presence of a trend and cyclical component, which allowed the use of additive decomposition models. For the study of long-term trends, a linear trend model was chosen for both Moldova and Ukraine. A spectral analysis of the cyclic component was carried out, which made it possible to identify five main harmonics with a unique frequency and amplitude. The combination of these harmonics caused 95.8% and 90.4% of the cyclical component for Moldova and Ukraine, respectively. An analysis of cointegration between short-term and long-term trend functions was conducted, which revealed medium cointegration in the long-term trend and high cointegration in the short-term trend. The cointegration analysis of the indicator values proved a high degree of cointegration for both long-term and short-term trends.

The impact of green logistics on the trade balance between Vietnam and ASEAN countries

This article investigates how green logistics influences Vietnam’s trade balance with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. By using the gravity model, the article applies fixed effects (FEM) and random effects (REM) to analyze panel data on trade balance, GDP, population, trade openness, and the green logistics index of Vietnam with ASEAN countries from 2012 to 2018. The research findings indicate that green logistics has not significantly affected Vietnam’s export trade balance with ASEAN countries. The article suggests solutions for the Vietnamese government and export businesses to enhance Vietnam’s trade balance with ASEAN countries by integrating green logistics activities. By following these recommendations, Vietnam can ensure that international trade aligns with environmental conservation, laying the groundwork for sustainable and inclusive economic development in Vietnam.

Measuring Business Cycle Stylized Facts in Selected Oil-Producing Economies: A Comparative Study

AbstractWe document the stylized facts relating to the contemporary business cycle in eleven oil-producing economies that account for over 65% of global oil production using a set of macroeconomic aggregates covering the period 1981 to 2021. In the context of Nigeria, a vector autoregression analysis is used to measure a one standard deviation oil price shock on time series such as trade balance, real GDP, inter alia. Our study is unique in that we compared four different detrending techniques, including Hodrick–Prescott (HP), Baxter-King, Christiano–Fitzgerald, and Butterworth filters. This is a departure from the conventional method of relying on the HP filter, which has been known to have limitations, particularly in the context of oil-producing economies. Our findings indicate that the selected oil-producing economies with countercyclical inflation patterns suggest that supply shocks drive the business cycles. Conversely, the oil-producing economies with inflation in sync (procyclical) with the business cycle suggest that demand shocks may be the primary driver of business cycle variations. Additionally, our study shows that oil price innovations lead to higher inflation in Nigeria.

Exchange rate flexibilization and macroeconomic determinants: Evidence from MENA region

Many emerging economies have significantly changed their economic policies by adopting floating exchange rate regimes. This article aims to investigate the relationship between exchange rate variations and key macroeconomic indicators in the MENA region, focusing specifically on Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey. The study employs regression analysis to explore how macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, trade balances, foreign exchange reserves, etc. influence exchange rate movements in these economies. By conducting a comprehensive regression model, we aim to provide insights into the complex dynamics of exchange rate fluctuations and their implications for economic stability and policymaking in the MENA region.

The Fishing and Aquaculture Production of Latin America with Respect to the Trade Balance and Foreign Investment

The Fishing and Aquaculture Production of Latin America with Respect to the Trade Balance and Foreign Investment

Impact of Account, Transparency, and Accountability Indicators on Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries

This study examines the intricate relationships between Account, Transparency, and Accountability indicators and GDP growth across a panel of countries, focusing on the Current Account Balance (CAB), Net Capital Account (NCA), Net Financial Account (NFA), CPIA Transparency Rating, and Voice and Accountability (VA). Drawing on economic theory and empirical analysis, we investigate how these variables influence Economic (GDP) growth dynamics. Theoretical underpinnings suggest that positive CAB reflects trade surpluses, contributing positively to GDP through increased economic activity, while NCA inflows stimulate long-term productivity gains. Conversely, negative NFA indicates potential adverse effects on GDP from capital outflows. Empirical findings using fixed effects, random effects, and Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) regression reveal significant associations: positive CAB and NCA correlate with higher GDP growth, whereas NFA shows a negative impact. CPIA and VA, while important for governance, do not directly affect GDP growth in this context. This research contributes by providing nuanced insights into the drivers of economic growth, informing policy strategies for sustainable development and institutional enhancement.

The Influence of Exports, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment, and Exchange Rates on Indonesia's Current Account Balance 2010 – 2022

Thc current account, akey compoment of thc balance of payments, includes thc trade balance, services, investment income, unilateral transactions, ard grants, all of which indicate a country’s economic position in terms of surplus or deficit. From 2010 to 2022, Indonesia's current account faced varying deficits. This study investigates how exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI), ard exchange rates affected Indonesia’s current account during this period. Using secondary data from Bank Indonesia ard thc Ministry of Trade of thc Republic of Indonesia, ard applying thc ARDL method in Eviews 12 for both short- ard long-term analyses, thc study found thc following: (1) Exports have a positive efect on thc current account in both thc short ard long term. (2) Imports negatively impact thc current account in both thc short ard long term. (3) Short-term FDI negatively affects thc current account, whereas long-term FDI has a slightly positive but not significant impact. (4) Exchange rates contribute positively to thc current account in both thc short ard long term, though thc efect is minimal. (5) Overall, exports, imports, FDI, ard exchange rates significantly affect Indonesia's current account from 2010 to 2022.

The Impact of R&D Expenditures on Regional Energy Intensity in Turkey

Energy efficiency measures are effective solutions for addressing environmental and economic issues, including global warming, energy supply security, and trade deficits from imported energy sources. Turkey through an ambitious policy scheme in the last decades, have reduced energy intensity level significantly, though, still higher than developed countries. In this regard, this study investigates the relationship between R&D expenditures and energy intensity in Turkey through NUTS-I regional data ranging from 2010 to 2021. According to both FMOLS and DOLS technique findings increasing R&D expenditures may significantly decreases energy intensity. Furthermore, economic growth appears to correlate with reduced energy intensity. Additionally, FMOLS findings suggest that industrialization may increases energy intensity, while DOLS results indicate that population growth can also significantly increase energy intensity. Therefore, a customized research and development (R&D) incentivization support system could offer various benefits to Turkey and other developing nations facing similar challenges.