Trend analysis of cotton production and trade

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse the cultivation areas, production amounts and foreign trade data of cotton plant in the world and Turkey from an economic point of view. The data on Turkey's cotton cultivation area, cotton production and fiber cotton import and export data for the 20-year period 2003-2022 were obtained from the Food Agricultural Organization (FAO). The data set was transferred to MS Excel spreadsheets and the trend analysis technique was used in MS Excel programme to obtain the trends in cotton cultivation area, cotton production amount and near future forecast values for eight years between 2023-2030. In addition, for the foreign trade balance data obtained from fiber cotton import and export data for the period 2000-2022, the change trends of the 23-year period and the eight-year near future forecast values between 2023-2030 were calculated. Cotton cultivation area has a decreasing trend between 2023-2030. While the forecast value of cotton cultivation area for 2023 is 417 thousand hectares, this value is predicted to decrease to 373 thousand 722 hectares in 2030. The trend in the amount of cotton production has a decreasing trend after 2022 and it is predicted that there will be no break in the amount of production between 2023-2030. The estimated foreign trade deficit in fiber cotton for 2023 is 964,516 tonnes and for 2030 is 1,106,672 tonnes. The main reasons for the decrease in cotton cultivation areas are the increases in input prices such as fertilisers, pesticides and seeds. In order to eliminate the foreign trade deficit in cotton, studies should be carried out to enter new markets and increase the share in existing markets. In addition, it should be aimed to create a sustainable cotton sector by investing in R&D activities and entering new markets.