Trade Winds Research Articles

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

AbstractA notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

Developing a 20-year high-resolution wind data set for Puerto Rico

The purpose of this study is to develop a high-resolution wind resource data set for Puerto Rico as part of the wind resource assessment in the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100 % Renewable Energy Study (PR100) project. The Weather and Research and Forecasting (WRF) is used to model 20-years (2001–2020) of wind resource data on a 3-km grid for the Puerto Rico region. Because accurately representing the planetary boundary layer (PBL)-physics in the WRF is key to accurately model low-level wind speed, 11 different PBL schemes are examined and evaluated to find a WRF configuration that can provide the most accurate wind data. The modeled wind speeds are validated with buoy observations, and the Shin-Hong PBL scheme is selected to generate the final wind data set. The overall results demonstrate that the high-resolution data correctly represents the climate of Puerto Rico (e.g., a dominant easterly trade wind). At 160 m above ground, the southern regions of Puerto Rico show strong offshore wind speed (>8 m/s on average) throughout the daytime and nighttime. For land-based wind, average wind speed ranges from 5 m/s–7 m/s during daytime, whereas notable high wind speeds (>9 m/s) appear in the mountain regions during nighttime.

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of rainfall time series in the Guadeloupe archipelago

Due to the vulnerability of the Caribbean islands to the climate change issue, it is important to investigate the behavior of rainfall. In addition, the soil of the French West Indies Islands has been contaminated by an organochlorine insecticide (Chlordecone) whose decontamination is mainly done by drainage water. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the fluctuations of rainfall in these complex environments. In this study, 19 daily rainfall series recorded in different stations of Guadeloupe archipelago from 2005 to 2014 were analyzed with the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. The aim of this work is to characterize the long-range correlations and multifractal properties of the time series and to find geographical patterns over the three most important islands: Basse-Terre, Grande-Terre and Marie-Galante. This is the first study that addresses the analysis of multifractal properties of rainfall series in the Caribbean islands. This region is typically characterized by the almost constant influence of the trade winds and a high exposure to changes in the general atmospheric circulation. 12 stations exhibit two different power-law scaling regions in rainfall series, with distinct long-range correlations and multifractal properties for large and small scales. On the contrary, the rest of stations only show a single region of scales for relatively small scales. Hurst exponents reveal persistent long-range correlations which agree with other studies in nearby tropical locations. In the most eastern analyzed areas, larger scales exhibit higher persistence than smaller scales, which suggests a relationship between persistence and the highest exposure to the trade winds. Stronger conclusions can be drawn from multifractal spectra, which indicate that most rainfall series have a multifractal nature with higher complexity and degree of multifractality at the smallest scales. Furthermore, a clear dependence of multifractal nature on the latitude is revealed. All these results showed that MF-DFA is a robust tool to assess the nonlinear properties of environmental time series in a complex area.

Carbonate sediment dynamics in the Abu Dhabi lagoon - implications for low-angle inner-to-middle ramp models

Carbonate ramps are prominent features of continental margins and intrashelf basins throughout much of Earth's history. Among the limited number of recent analogues of ancient carbonate ramps, the Persian/Arabian Gulf stands out due to its morphologically complex array of open coastal to sabkha environments. This study presents detailed field and laboratory data on spatial facies variability linked to different hydrodynamic regimes spanning from open coastal to inner lagoon settings in Abu Dhabi. Sediment transport and deposition are determined by waves and tidal currents, with spatially and temporally complex variations in the hydrodynamic regime, resulting in a complex facies mosaic. The open coastal domain is subject to persistent north-westerly trade (Shamal) winds and episodic winter storms, generating waves that affect the deposition of ooids, peloids, lithic clasts and bioclasts. In the outer lagoon, these waves interact with tidal currents and thus become less dominant towards the middle lagoon. Tidal currents are more important in the restricted inner lagoon. The outer lagoonal sediments primarily consist of ooids, bioclasts and lithic clasts and are peloid- and micrite-lean. Bimodal tidal currents, locally with velocities of two or more metres per second, are present in the relatively open regime of the middle lagoon and accumulate bar complexes dominated by skeletal carbonates. Seagrass and biofilms locally stabilise muddy carbonates and limit sediment entrainment even where significant tidal currents exist. In a landward direction, and with decreasing hydrodynamic levels, carbonate mud (micrite) is increasingly abundant, reflecting the lower hydrodynamic conditions in the restricted regime of the mid-and inner lagoon. Data shown here provide a facies distribution model in the shallow coastal portions of what might be one of the few modern analogues of a ‘marginal epeiric’ sea, shedding light on the complex interplay between coastal morphology, wave and tide energy and biological processes. This study discusses how hydrodynamics and seafloor bio-stabilisation influence the spatial carbonate facies of this highly dynamic ramp system by comparing data shown here with data from the Kuwait and Doha coasts, which have different orientations to the prevailing winds. The quantitative and refined composite inner ramp model shown here has wider significance for coastal dynamics and carbonate stratigraphy.

Dynamic redox and nutrient cycling response to climate forcing in the Mesoproterozoic ocean

Controls on Mesoproterozoic ocean redox heterogeneity, and links to nutrient cycling and oxygenation feedbacks, remain poorly resolved. Here, we report ocean redox and phosphorus cycling across two high-resolution sections from the ~1.4 Ga Xiamaling Formation, North China Craton. In the lower section, fluctuations in trade wind intensity regulated the spatial extent of a ferruginous oxygen minimum zone, promoting phosphorus drawdown and persistent oligotrophic conditions. In the upper section, high but variable continental chemical weathering rates led to periodic fluctuations between highly and weakly euxinic conditions, promoting phosphorus recycling and persistent eutrophication. Biogeochemical modeling demonstrates how changes in geographical location relative to global atmospheric circulation cells could have driven these temporal changes in regional ocean biogeochemistry. Our approach suggests that much of the ocean redox heterogeneity apparent in the Mesoproterozoic record can be explained by climate forcing at individual locations, rather than specific events or step-changes in global oceanic redox conditions.

Tropical Easterly Waves Over Costa Rica and Their Relationship to the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall

AbstractUsing an index of tropical easterly wave (TEW) activity derived from spacetime‐filtered outgoing longwave radiation, we construct composites of long‐term hourly surface meteorological observations and morningtime sounding data collected near San José, Costa Rica to investigate how TEWs affect the diurnal cycle of rainfall over land. Our results indicate that TEWs enhance the frequency of occurrence of rain during convectively active conditions over the course of the diurnal cycle. By contrast, rainfall conditional intensity sensitivity to TEW phase appears more nuanced, with indications that active conditions induce a slight delay in the timing of the diurnal peak intensity but a longer duration of heavier rainfall. Analysis of associated hourly surface meteorology along with sounding profiles and derived thermodynamic parameters points to both initial vertical and time‐evolving surface conditions regulating diurnal behavior, such as greater instability and higher precipitable water in morningtime profiles under active phase conditions.

Assessing the future influence of the North Pacific trade wind precursors on ENSO in the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as one of the largest coupled climate modes, influences the livelihoods of millions of people and ecosystems survival. Thus, how ENSO is expected to behave under the influence of anthropogenic climate change is a substantial question to investigate. In this paper, we analyze future predictions of specific traits of ENSO, in combination with a subset of well-established precursors—the Trade Wind Charging and North Pacific Meridional Mode (TWC/NPMM). We study it across three sets of experiments from a protocol-driven ensemble from CMIP6—the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Namely, (1) experiments at constant 1950’s radiative forcings, and (2) experiments of present (1950–2014) and (3) future (2015–2050) climate with prescribed increasing radiative forcings. We first investigate the current and predicted spatial characteristics of ENSO events, by calculating area, amplitude and longitude of the Center of Heat Index (CHI). We see that TWC/NPMM-charged events are consistently stronger, in both the presence and absence of external forcings; however, as anthropogenic forcings increase, the area of all ENSO events increases. Since the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship has been shown to affect the oscillatory behavior of ENSO, we analyze ENSO frequency by calculating CHI-analogous indicators on the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) of its signal. With this new methodology, we show that across the ensemble, ENSO oscillates at different frequencies, and its oscillatory behavior shows different degrees of stochasticity, over time and across models. However, we see no consistent indication of future trends in the oscillatory behavior of ENSO and the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship.

Diurnal variation of monsoon winds during the onset, active-break and withdrawal phases observed at its gateway in India: A case study of 2021

Diurnal variation of the low-level jet (LLJ) and tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) over Cochin – the gateway of Indian summer monsoon – was investigated during the monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), active-break, and withdrawal phases in the year 2021. Horizontal wind profiles obtained from the 205 MHz wind profiling radar at Cochin University of Science and Technology, India, were analyzed to delineate the core speed and core heights of the LLJ and TEJ. Distinct diurnal variability in wind patterns was observed during various monsoon phases. The LLJ and TEJ core speed and heights exhibited significant diurnal variations, with the LLJ reaching maximum diurnal amplitudes between 2.5 m s−1 (onset phase) and 0.5 m s−1 (break phase). Notably, the LLJ core speed during the break phase was approximately half of that during the active phase. The ratios of the diurnal range to the time mean LLJ core speed varied between 0.19 (active phase) and 1.33 (onset phase). Moreover, the LLJ core height is higher during active compared to break. Similarly, the TEJ core height at Cochin is marginally higher during active compared to that during break. Interestingly, an enhanced TEJ core speed and weakened LLJ were observed during the break phases. The variation of moisture flux exhibited positive correlation with the core speed with 2–3 h lag, significantly influencing the diurnal variability of rainfall. The causative factors behind the diurnal oscillations during various phases of the monsoon are discussed.

Sub-cloud rain evaporation in the North Atlantic winter trade winds derived by pairing isotopic data with a bin-resolved microphysical model

Abstract. Sub-cloud rain evaporation in the trade wind region significantly influences the boundary layer mass and energy budgets. Parameterizing it is, however, difficult due to the sparsity of well-resolved rain observations and the challenges of sampling short-lived marine cumulus clouds. In this study, sub-cloud rain evaporation is analyzed using a steady-state, one-dimensional model that simulates changes in drop sizes, relative humidity, and rain isotopic composition. The model is initialized with relative humidity, raindrop size distributions, and water vapor isotope ratios (e.g., δDv, δ18Ov) sampled by the NOAA P3 aircraft during the Atlantic Tradewind Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign (ATOMIC), which was part of the larger EUREC4A (ElUcidating the RolE of Clouds–Circulation Coupling in ClimAte) field program. The modeled surface precipitation isotope ratios closely match the observations from EUREC4A ground-based and ship-based platforms, lending credibility to our model. The model suggests that 63 % of the rain mass evaporates in the sub-cloud layer across 22 P3 cases. The vertical distribution of the evaporated rain flux is top heavy for a narrow (σ) raindrop size distribution (RSD) centered over a small geometric mean diameter (Dg) at the cloud base. A top-heavy profile has a higher rain-evaporated fraction (REF) and larger changes in the rain deuterium excess (d=δD-8×δ18O) between the cloud base and the surface than a bottom-heavy profile, which results from a wider RSD with larger Dg. The modeled REF and change in d are also more strongly influenced by cloud base Dg and σ rather than the concentration of raindrops. The model results are accurate as long as the variations in the relative humidity conditions are accounted for. Relative humidity alone, however, is a poor indicator of sub-cloud rain evaporation. Overall, our analysis indicates the intricate dependence of sub-cloud rain evaporation on both thermodynamic and microphysical processes in the trade wind region.

Tracing isotope precipitation patterns across Mexico

Mexico encompasses a large spectrum of landscapes with topographic, geographic, and climatic factors interacting in a complex ecohydrological setting. For decades, isotope hydrogeological tools have been applied in Mexico using short-term or seasonal local meteoric water lines as valid input functions. Yet, a systematic evaluation of meteoric isotope characteristics is still lacking. Here we report on the spatial and temporal isotope variations of 21 precipitation monitoring stations across Mexico. Our database includes 608 monthly samples collected from 2018 to 2021 over four regions (between 5 and 2,365 m asl): the Pacific coast, the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea region, and the Central and Northern plateaus. Precipitation δ18O seasonality from the dry (winter) to the wet season (summer) was characterized by a notable W-shaped variability. Monthly precipitation amounts and δ18O compositions exhibited poor to strong linear regressions (Adj. r2<0.01 to 0.75), with inverse (positive) relationships over the northern monsoon-affected region. Low d-excess (5.1 to 9.7‰) corresponded with greater terrestrial moisture contributions (20.5%) over the arid northern regions. Moisture inputs from the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean were associated with near-equilibrium or greater d-excess values (8.8 to 14.3‰), respectively. The best-fit linear models for δ18O (Adj. r2 = 0.85) and δ2H (Adj. r2 = 0.88) were determined for topographic and geographical predictors, resulting in an updated high-resolution precipitation isoscape (100 m2 grid) for Mexico. Orographic barriers (-2.10‰ in δ18O/km) coupled with the interaction of tropical cyclones and cold fronts, the evolution of the North American Monsoon system, and the passage of easterly trade winds play a remarkable role in controlling the spatial isotope rainfall variability. Our findings provide a robust baseline for ecohydrological, climatic, forensic, archeological, and paleoclimate studies in North America.

Influence of Teleconnection Factors on Extreme Precipitation in Henan Province under Urbanization

Urban extreme precipitation is a typical destructive hydrological event. However, the disaster-causing factors of urban extreme precipitation in Henan Province have rarely been discussed. In this study, daily precipitation data of 11 stations covering a disaster-affected area in “21.7” rainstorm event from 1951 to 2021 and hundreds of climatic indexes set were selected. First, the Granger causality test was adopted to identify the dominant teleconnection factors of extreme precipitation. Then, the effects of teleconnection factors on extreme precipitation in four design frequencies of 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.001% in typical cities of Henan Province were analyzed by using regression and frequency analysis. Finally, the future variation was predicted based on CMIP6. The results show that: (1) The West Pacific 850 mb Trade Wind Index, Antarctic oscillation index, and other factors exert common influence on disaster-affected cities. (2) Teleconnection factors are the dominant force of urban extreme precipitation in most cities (50.3–99.8%), and area of built-up districts, length of roads, area of roads, and botanical garden areas are the key urbanization indicators affecting extreme precipitation. (3) In the future scenarios, the duration and intensity characteristics of urban extreme precipitation will increase, and the growth rate will increase monotonically with the recurrence period.

Triple‐Dip La Niñas in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023: Impact of Mean State Changes

AbstractThis study compares the evolution of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies as well as predictions for the two most recent triple‐dip La Niña events in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023. Subsurface cooling in the equatorial Pacific was stronger and more persistent during 1998–2001. In contrast, surface easterly winds were stronger during 2020–2023 as was the east‐west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast along the equator. We argue that in the absence of appreciable equatorial Pacific heat discharge, persistent and strong surface trade winds and a strengthened mean zonal SST contrast across the tropical Pacific contributed to the development of the 2020–2023 triple‐dip La Niña. In terms of the subsurface layer heat budget, the growth and maintenance of unusually cold SSTs during the triple‐dip La Niña in 1998–2001 were mainly the result of ocean vertical entrainment and diffusion, as well as meridional advection, associated with enhanced equatorial upwelling; while for the triple‐dip La Niña in 2020–2023, zonal advection was the largest contributor. The two events were mostly well predicted by multi‐model averages at 1–8 months lead times. We hypothesize that mean state change with enhanced zonal SST contrast and trade winds over the last several decades altered the physical processes associated with the growth and maintenance of the most recent La Niña, affecting its predictability. Successful prediction in real‐time of the 2020–2023 event more than half a year in advance was surprising because there was little memory in oceanic heat content which is often considered a key predictor.

The 2021 Atlantic Niño and Benguela Niño Events: external forcings and air–sea interactions

AbstractThis paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the extreme Atlantic and Benguela Niño events that occurred during the boreal spring–summer of 2021. We conducted sensitivity experiments with a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model of the tropical Atlantic to investigate the phenology of these interannual events, unravel their triggering mechanisms, and quantify the contributions of local and remote processes. The results revealed that both the 2021 Atlantic and Benguela Niños were triggered by anomalous atmospheric fluxes at the model southern boundary (32° S), leading to a significant and persistent weakening of the South Atlantic Anticyclone. The associated poleward anomalous coastal wind off Africa reduced coastal upwelling and evaporation south of 15° S, initiating the Benguela Niño. Then, the relaxation of the equatorial trade winds forced a downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave, which warmed the eastern equatorial region, marking the onset of the Atlantic Niño. The equatorial event reached full maturity in July 2021 through ENSO-like air-sea interactions in the equatorial basin, enhanced by the atmospheric connection associated with low-level winds converging toward the distant coastal warming. While air–sea interactions in the tropical Atlantic acted as a negative feedback for the coastal warming, the ocean connection with the equatorial variability through the propagation of equatorially-forced downwelling coastal waves intensified the coastal warming, peaking end of May 2021. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics of Atlantic and Benguela Niños, emphasizing the interconnectedness between these two systems. This has important implications for improving Earth system models which currently struggle to simulate these extreme events.

Projected Strengthening Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Southern Hemisphere by CMIP5/6 Models

Abstract Using 20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-resolving models from phases 5/6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6), this study examines the projected Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical response to the QBO. Nine of the 22 models simulate decelerated circumpolar westerlies during easterly QBO (EQBO) in the historical climate as is observed, though only ∼30% of the observed change is reproduced in the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of these high-skill models. These high-skill models project an enhanced stratospheric QBO teleconnection for both emissions scenarios. Further, the stratospheric wind anomaly in high latitudes is projected to move to midlatitudes in future scenarios. The climatological subtropical jet is projected to strengthen, while tropical easterlies are projected to weaken. As a consequence, upward wave activity in the future appears to become more sensitive to the QBO phase. Enhanced upward propagation of waves in mid- to high latitudes during EQBO are much stronger in future scenarios than in historical simulations. The anomalous downwelling over the Antarctic, as part of the Brewer–Dobson deep branch response to EQBO, is also projected to strengthen, corresponding to increased warm anomalies. In future scenarios, the areal extent of the deep convective response to EQBO over the Maritime Continent widens and includes a sharper reduction in outgoing longwave radiation, albeit with southward expansion from Indonesia to Australia. The enhancement and spatial shift in the stratospheric polar vortex pathway and tropical convection pathway subsequently lead to changes in the tropospheric QBO signal. An annular mode–like response forms in the troposphere and near-surface in the present climate, whereas this pattern shifts farther equatorward in future projections with circulation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean amplifying. Significance Statement The influence of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has been reported to intensify in the Northern Hemisphere under climate change, even as the QBO wind magnitude weakens. It is still unknown whether the influence of the QBO on the Southern Hemisphere intensifies or weakens in a warm climate. Using simulations from multiple models, this study finds that the influence of the QBO on the Southern Hemisphere is projected to strengthen in most models even as the QBO weakens. Two QBO pathways are explored, including the stratospheric polar vortex route and the tropical convection pathway, both of which are projected to amplify in both the moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. In addition to the amplification of the QBO signals in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, an equatorward shift of the maximum anomalies is also projected. That is, the maximum easterly anomalies in the Antarctic stratosphere during easterly QBO and the annular mode–like pattern in the troposphere or the near-surface shifts farther equatorward.

Linking upwelling intensity and orbital-scale climate variability in South Africa's winter rainfall zone: Insights from a ∼70,000-year hyrax midden record

The climate of Africa's southwestern Cape is characterised by a strongly seasonal winter precipitation regime, with late Quaternary climate variability generally considered to have been driven by the position of the southern westerlies. This paper presents a unique ∼70,000 year-long palaeoclimatic record from a rock hyrax midden from South Africa's winter rainfall zone, enabling the analysis of regional climate systems since the beginning of marine isotope stage 4. The data suggest that the last glacial period was relatively humid compared to the Holocene, likely due to cooler temperatures, more extensive Antarctic sea-ice extent and an equatorward displacement of the westerly storm track. However, orbital-scale climate variability associated with the 23 kyr precessional cycle primarily correlates with changes in upwelling intensity in the Benguela system, implying an important role for the blocking of tropical easterly flow in driving long-term climatic variability. These factors combined during glacial periods to significantly amplify rainfall seasonality in the southwestern Cape, bringing more winter rainfall via mid-latitude frontal systems, while reducing the proportion of summer rainfall, particularly during the glacial periods of the late Quaternary. The results therefore highlight the need to consider a complex suite of circulation systems and dynamics when inferring drivers of long-term environmental change in the region.

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

AbstractThe Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi‐biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long‐term changes in the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP‐historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP‐historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled‐historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO‐TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

Possible linkage of sea surface height anomaly, surface wind stress and sea surface temperature with the falling ice radiative effects under a gradual warming scenario

This study investigates the possible linkage of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind stress (TAU) with the falling ice radiative effects (FIREs) over the Pacific Ocean under the CMIP5 scenario of 1% CO2 increase per year (1pctCO2) for 140 years. Two sensitivity experiments using the fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere CESM1-CAM5 model are compared: one with FIREs (SON) and the other without (NOS). The warming period of the last 20 year is compared to the control period of the first 20 years. The mean state of the first 20 years exhibits a stronger west-east SSHA gradient in SON than in NOS over the Pacific Ocean, attributed to the stronger prevailing easterly trade winds and the SST pattern of being warmer in the western Pacific but colder in the eastern Pacific. In the last 20 years, SON continues to display a stronger SSHA west-east gradient with higher sea level and SST over the western Pacific Ocean compared to NOS. In the southwest Pacific, stronger trade winds are linked with the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, leading to a more significant decline in SSHA there in SON than in NOS. The CMIP5 ensemble mean shows similar relationships of SSHA with TAU and SST to those of NOS when both are compared against SON, highlighting the importance of FIREs in the SSH projection over the Pacific Ocean and the impact of FIREs on the changing relationships between SSHA, SST and TAU under global warming.

The Nature of Opal Burial in the Equatorial Atlantic During the Deglaciation

AbstractRelatively high opal concentrations are measured in equatorial Atlantic sediments from the most recent deglaciation. To shed light on their causes, seven cores were analyzed for their content of siliceous (diatom, silicoflagellates, radiolarians, phytoliths, and sponge spicules) and calcareous (coccolithophores) microfossils. An early deglacial signal is detected at the time of rising boreal summer insolation ca. 18 ka by the coccolithophores. The surface freshening is likely due to the rain belt associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), implying its southward shift relatively to its present‐day average positioning. The diatom assemblages corresponding to the following increase in diatom abundances ca. 15.5 ka suggest the formation of a cold tongue of upwelled water associated with tropical instability waves propagating westward. Such conditions occur at present during boreal summer, when southerly trade winds are intensified, and the ITCZ shifts northward. The presence of the diatom Ethmodiscus rex (Wallich) Hendey and the coccolithophore Florisphera profunda indicates a deep thermocline and nutrient enrichment of the lower photic zone, revealing that Si‐rich southern sourced water (SSW) likely contributed to enhanced primary productivity during this time interval. The discrepancies between the maximum opal concentrations and siliceous marine microfossils records evidence the contribution of freshwater diatoms and phytoliths, indicative of other processes. The definition of the nature of the opal record suggests successive productivity conditions associated with specific atmospheric settings determining the latitudinal ITCZ positioning and the development of oceanic processes; and major oceanic circulation changes permitting the contribution of SSW to marine productivity at this latitude.

The Spatio-Temporal Cloud Frequency Distribution in the Galapagos Archipelago as Seen from MODIS Cloud Mask Data

Clouds play an important role in the climate system; nonetheless, the relationship between climate change in general and regional cloud occurrence is not yet well understood. This particularly holds for remote areas such as the iconic Galapagos archipelago in Ecuador. As a first step towards a better understanding, we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of cloud cover over Galapagos. We found that cloud frequency and distribution exhibit large inter- and intra-annual variability due to the changing influence of climatic drivers (trade winds, sea surface temperature, El Niño/La Niña events) and spatial variations due to terrain characteristics and location within the archipelago. The highest cloud frequencies occur in mid-elevations on the slopes exposed to the southerly trade winds (south-east slopes). Towards the highlands ( >900 m a.s.l), cloud frequency decreases, with a sharp leap towards high-level crater areas mainly on Isabela Island that frequently immerse into the trade inversion layer. With respect to the diurnal cycle, we found a lower cloud frequency over the islands in the evening than in the morning. Seasonally, cloud frequency is higher during the hot season (January–May) than in the cool season (June–December). However, spatial differences in cloudiness were more pronounced during the cool season months. We further analyzed two periods beyond average atmospheric forcing. During El Niño 2015, the cloud frequency was higher than usual, and differences between altitudes and aspects were less pronounced. La Niña 2007 led to negative anomalies in cloud frequency over the islands, with intensified differences between altitude and aspect.

Distinct decadal modulation of Atlantic-Niño influence on ENSO

It is known that winter Atlantic-Niño events can induce the El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) in the following winter with a lag of 1-year during one period. On the other hand, summer Atlantic-Niño events can lead to the ENSO in the subsequent winter with a half-year lag during another period. In this study, we investigate the distinct interdecadal modulation of the effect of the Atlantic-Niños on ENSO by analyzing observational reanalysis datasets. During the mid-twentieth century, the winter Atlantic-Niño exhibited increased intensity and extended westward due to warmer conditions in the tropical western Atlantic. As a result, convection occurred from the Amazon to the Atlantic, triggering an atmospheric teleconnection that led to trade wind discharging and equatorial Kelvin waves, ultimately contributing to the development of ENSO. In contrast, during late twentieth century, summer Atlantic-Niño events were closely linked to the South America low-level jet in boreal spring. This connection led to the formation of widespread and intense convection over the Amazon to the Atlantic region. Then, the Walker circulation was effectively modulated, subsequently triggering ENSO events. Further analysis revealed that the interdecadal modulation of the Atlantic–South America–Pacific mean state plays a crucial role in shaping the impact of Atlantic-Niños on ENSO by modifying not only the characteristics of the Atlantic-Niños but also ocean–atmospheric feedback process. Therefore, improving our understanding of the interdecadal modulation of the climatological mean state over the Pacific to Atlantic regions enables better anticipation of the interaction between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.