Trade Routes Research Articles

Alien and native species in Italian marine and transitional waters.

Biological invasions are one of the major threats to the ecosystem structure and functioning. After the initial introduction, frequently mediated by human activities, alien species can overcome different biogeographical and ecological barriers and determine severe impacts on native biodiversity and socio-economic activities. The Italian peninsula is located at the intersection of large trade routes within the Mediterranean Sea. Such position, along with the intense commercial activity and the high population density of the Italian coast, are considered important drivers of alien species in Italian marine and transitional ecosystems. The Italian peninsula, however, is also one of the regions with the highest native species richness within the Mediterranean Sea and, therefore, it is crucial to account for both alien and native species diversity when estimating the impact of biological invasion. Yet, such comprehensive information is frequently scattered across several biodiversity information systems and databases. Here, two datasets with alien and native species records in Italian marine and transitional waters are described. These datasets, created for the LifeWatch Italy case study on alien species, are the result of a large-scale collaboration involving experts working across the whole range of taxonomic diversity. The marine dataset includes a total of 12,219 records belonging to 3,772 species gathered from 91 investigated sites and seven EUNIS habitats. The dataset on transitional waters biodiversity includes 3,838 records belonging to 2,019 species found in 23 locations and four EUNIS habitats. Alien species were recorded in both marine and transitional waters, accounting respectively for 140 and 171 biological records belonging to 59 and 97 species. These occurrence data can be used for further research studies or management purposes, including the evaluation of the invasion risk and the formulation of alien species control and management plans. Furthermore, these compiled datasets can be used as input data for the Biotope vulnerability case study of LifeWatch ERIC, which offers a number of ICT services for the calculation of the incidence and of the impact of alien species on European biotopes.

Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions

Shipping accidents and environmental disasters pose a challenge to the reliability of maritime supply chains. Since international trade intensifies without a significant diversification of the supply routes the risk of transportation perturbations caused by extreme events like tropical cyclones may increase conceivably. In this study we model the regional and global economic repercussions of typhoon-induced short-term transport disruptions of West Pacific trading routes. Using a numerical agent-based shock model with myopic local optimization, we compute the response of more than 7,000 regional economic sectors with more than 1.8 million trade and supply relations. We compute that transportation perturbations, due to West Pacific typhoons between 2000–2020, may cause local oversupply and scarcity situations as well as the associated regional price changes. In our model economic agents respond to these price signals and temporary supply bottlenecks by rescheduling and increasing their demand. As a consequence from our numerical analysis, we find annual median export volume to increase in all trade blocs due to a decrease of export prices, but substantial regional differences emerge. Further we show that resilience of export to typhoon-induced perturbations increase in China, ASEAN, East Asia, and Europe within the first 16 years of this century. We trace this back to a rise of the inter-connectivity of these trade blocs to their foreign trade partners.

European multi regional input output data for 2008–2018

Regioindustry trade flow data are useful inputs for economists and policy makers for a range of planning and disaster-response applications. Within the European Union (EU) whose members enjoy free trade, small variations in these granular trade flows can often propagate to other member-countries far beyond the original trade-shock. In spite of their importance, this information is either outdated or non-existent in the EU as the official databases only provide data at the national-sectoral or regional-only (non-industry specific) level. To fill this gap, we construct Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) tables for 272 European NUTS-2 regions for the period 2008–2018, building on freight transport data as their main trade route across them. The database covers 10 sectors for industry, services and agriculture. We successfully validate our estimates through a direct comparison with a previous MRIO dataset for European regions (REGIO), a sub-sample of countries reporting regional trade flow data as the “ground truth” and a sensitivity analysis reporting relative standard errors well below the MRIO literature average.

1600 BC: Fårdrup and Valsømagle-Type Axes and the First Evidence of Southern Alpine Metal

Abstract This article presents the results of a comprehensive investigation of Fårdrup and Valsømagle-type shafthole axes from Denmark and southern Sweden. The combination of artefact style and typology with trace element and lead isotope data in the analysis has provided new insights into the chronological relationship between these two axe types. This way, we open a new window to long-standing debates surrounding these artefact types. Did Fårdrup and Valsømagle type axes evolve parallel, or did they replace each other chronologically in evolutionary progression? The archaeometallurgical dataset presented in this article includes more than 70 axes. Four axes have been analysed for this article. This large set of data is then assessed against a background of metal analyses which trace the long and winding evolution of the use of bronze in Scandinavia c.2300–1400 BC. Combining these two datasets shows the provenance of the metals and, thus, provides insights into metallurgical developments at the onset of the Nordic Bronze Age (NBA, c.1600 BC). In particular, the shafthole axes offer new evidence of the use of a novel type of copper from the East Alpine region based on chalcopyrite ores. The first occurrences of this low-impurity copper in southern Scandinavia appeared around 1700 BC. However, it would eventually become dominant in c.1600 BC, when the local production of shafthole axes began. Significantly, a fraction of the shafthole axes – Fårdrup and Valsømagle-types alike – consist of low impurity copper most likely derived from the Italian Alps (Trentino), which was absent in earlier periods. By NBA II 1500–1300 BC, most metal objects can be related to this northern Italian copper. We interpret this in terms of chronology: Fårdrup (⁓Koszider) and Valsømagle (⁓Tumulus B1) consisted of similar types of copper, which had declined by the onset of NBA II, all indicating that Fårdrup and Valsømagle style objects flourished before the beginning of NBA II (c.1500 BC). The small influx of north Italian copper in the axes indicates that its arrival began before the breakthrough of NBA II. Therefore, while the results of the metal analyses cannot exclude chronological differences between the two shafthole axe types over the 16th century BC, it is probable that their timelines coincided. In summary, our results display correlations between societal developments and thresholds on the one hand and metal provenances and trade routes on the other.

Discovering stories from Punjab on the streets of Saint-Tropez, Cote D’Azur, France

This paper presents stories associated with artefacts and episodes from the Kingdom of Lahore in Punjab, told through the author's research visit and fieldwork on the streets of Saint-Tropez located on the Cote D'Azur in the South of France. Episodes in the early 19th century that shaped the establishment of the Kingdom of Lahore, ruled by Maharajah Ranjit Singh, are outlined, and the author introduces Europeans employed in the armies of Punjab. The author describes how the actions of the Maharajah in the 1830s opened up highly profitable trading routes for some of his European generals between Lahore and Europe, dealing in arts, armour and textiles. The establishment of these Indo-French trading routes included the export of luxurious shawls from Kashmir and Amritsar (ruled at the time by Ranjit Singh) to Europe. One prominent individual, Jean-Francois Allard, who rose to become a general in Punjab, is chronicled, and the paper focuses on Allard and his wife, Bannou Pan Dei, and their life in Saint-Tropez. The paper ends by highlighting the recent work by officials in Saint-Tropez to articulate these stories and shared histories to develop interest, relations and promote tourism between the locations of India, especially Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, and France.

Simulated distributions of pumice rafts in Japan following eruptions at volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes

Voluminous pumice rafts produced by the 2021 phreatomagmatic eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba, a submarine volcano located in the Izu-Bonin Islands, reached many Japanese ports and islands, damaging fisheries and hindering marine traffic and trade. This event emphasized the necessity for governments and stakeholders to develop plans in advance and prepare disaster mitigation measures before an eruption. To investigate when and to what extent pumice might intersect trade routes and arrive at islands after future eruptions, we conducted particle tracking simulations of eruptions at major volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes near Japan using the velocity field from the ocean reanalysis dataset. Seven major volcanoes that have produced pumice rafts in the past century were selected: the submarine volcano NNE of Iriomote Island, Izu-Tobu Volcanoes, Miyakejima, Bayonnaise Rocks, Nishinoshima, Kaitoku Seamount, and Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba. We partly reproduced the distribution of pumice arrivals recorded after the 1986 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption, demonstrating the potential effectiveness of the simulations. We report likely pumice raft arrivals and drifting durations for the investigated eruptive scenarios, which may aid future risk assessments for pumice arrivals.

Poaching sources and trade routes in Peru and Ecuador warn of the unsustainable rural demand for preferred parrot species

AbstractIllegal wildlife trade remains highly active in the Neotropics, as indicated by the thousands of parrots annually sold in illicit city markets. However, little is known about where parrots are poached, whether certain parrot species are selected among those available in the wild, their trade routes, and potential conservation impacts. We conducted a large‐scale survey in Peru and southern Ecuador to simultaneously estimate the relative abundance of parrots in the wild and as household pets in rural areas, determine their origin (locally poached or bought at city markets), and measured the shortest distances to their native ranges and markets through the existing grid of roads. Household‐poached native parrots were found in 96% of the rural localities surveyed. Most pets were locally poached, with only 14% of them bought at markets. Parrot poaching was highly selective, with preferred species (mainly Amazon parrots and large macaws) being collected much more than expected given their abundances in the wild and attaining higher prices than the other species. Individuals that were moved away from their native ranges or bought at distant markets were of those species most preferred by people, and covered large distances (up to 1010 km), even crossing country boundaries. Our results differ from those previously obtained from city markets and seizures of illegally traded parrots in Peru, where preferred species were underrepresented. Local poaching and rural trade activities act at very large spatial scales and negatively affect the population trends of preferred parrot species. This unsustainable scenario is a challenge to the application of effective conservation actions aimed at halting poaching and illegal trade. These actions should focus on very extensive and remote rural areas throughout the Neotropics rather than just on well‐known markets located in large cities.

The Beginning of Chinese Cavalry and the Use of Horses in Northwest of Han Empire

The article examines the processes of the gradual introduction of cavalry troops based on the “barbarian model” into the Chinese army to counter the nomads near the northwestern borders of the empire. The author gives some examples from the written sources of the Zhanguo and Qin Dynasty periods, presenting the gradual transformation of the role of the horse rider as a separate combat unit, but also in combination with chariots. During the Han dynasty, the immediate threat from the Xiongnu by the borders and the need to secure trade routes to the West were the impetus for the reorganization of the army in general and the cavalry in particular. In order to study the peculiarities of horse use for transport needs and military operations in the north-west of the Western Han empire, besides the chronicles, documents of administrative and commercial content – bamboo slips with characters, hanjian, were being used. They were found in large numbers in border fortresses and can significantly supplement the information from the written sources of the Han period and make it possible to reconstruct not only the specifics of inner workings of the northwestern prefectures of China at the turn of the eras but also the peculiarities of horse use for the needs of postal service, patrols and the internal everyday life of garrisons.

Waste-Derived Renewable Hydrogen and Methane: Towards a Potential Energy Transition Solution

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is an environmentally friendly process for recovering low-carbon energy from the breakdown of organic substrates. In recent years, AD has undergone a major paradigm shift, and now the technology is not only considered as a “waste treatment” method and is instead viewed as a key enabler of the future “circular economy” with its potential for resource recovery (low-carbon energy, safe water, and nutrients). Currently, waste-derived biogas from AD is the most affordable and scalable source of renewable energy. Biomethane (upgraded biogas) can serve as a significant renewable and dispatchable energy source for combating the problem of global warming. Acidogenesis, an intermediate step of AD, can produce molecular hydrogen (H2) along with green chemicals/platform chemicals. The use of low-carbon hydrogen as a clean energy source is on the rise throughout the world, and is currently considered a potential alternative energy source that can contribute to the transition to a carbon-neutral future. In order to determine the future trade routes for hydrogen, nations are developing hydrogen policies, and various agreements. Hydrogen produced by biological routes has been found to be suitable due to its potential as a green energy source that is carbon neutral for the developing “Hydrogen Economy”. Recently, hydrogen blended with methane to a specific proportion and known as biohythane/hydrogen-enriched compressed natural gas (HCNG) has emerged as a promising clean fuel that can substantially contribute to an integrated net-zero energy system. This review provides an overview of the current state of fermentative hydrogen and methane production from biogenic waste/wastewater in a biorefinery approach and its utilization in the context of energy transition. The limitations and economic viability of the process, which are crucial challenges associated with biohydrogen/biomethane production, are discussed, along with its utilization.

ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION – DIMENSIONS AND HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES

In this paper, we approach a chronological analysis of globalization from an economic dimension. We know this term of globalization has become increasingly used since the 1990s. The phenomenon of globalization as well as its effects are subject to many analyzes quantifying both the socio-economic advantages and disadvantages. However, far fewer have focused on a historical analysis of economic globalization. Starting from the definition of globalization - a process by which economies become more and more interconnected and interdependent – can we assert that globalization has its origins in the mists of history with the occurrence and development of the silk road? Although there are many opinions about when globalization began, we believe that based on the arguments presented in this research, the trade routes created during the Silk Road represent an important moment in the history and beginnings of globalization. Throughout history, socio-economic events such as the first industrial revolution and the current digital revolution have led to the evolution of trade routes and the emergence of new technologies that have transformed the nature of trade.

A complex case of trade in metals: The origin of copper used for artefacts found in one hoard from a Late Bronze Age Lusatian Urnfield Culture in Poland

Metal artefacts from Bronze Age hoards have routinely been used to study interregional contacts. Their stylistic and typological features helped distinguish local products and imports by appearance. In the last 40 years, combined lead isotope and chemical analyses of metals have been widely applied to verify hypotheses based on style and typology. This paper is a comprehensive typological and analytical study of a metal item hoard discovered in Paszowice, SW Poland. In the Bronze Age, the area was inhabited by the Lusatian Urnfield culture (ca. 1350/1300–800/750 BC) communities. We expected that at least some of the artefacts would be local products fashioned according to foreign stylistic patterns. The research aimed to determine whether a ‘classical’ stylistic analysis combined with provenance studies of metals would allow more decisive conclusions. This combination of methods could also show how the metal reached the Lusatian Urnfield culture settlement zone. We conducted a detailed typological and chronological analysis to map the distribution of similar artefact types. It demonstrated that stylistic matches for the artefacts from Paszowice occur mainly in NE Hungary, S Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. Selected metal artefacts (both tin bronze items and raw copper objects) from Paszowice were also analysed for their chemical (EPMA) and lead isotope (MC ICP MS) compositions. The study revealed many copper sources used for their production, ranging from the nearest copper mines in the Slovak Ore Mountains, through Eastern Alps and mines in Sardinia, to possibly the Iberian Peninsula. In this way, we identified the potential trade routes by which metal could get to SW Poland: the southwestern and southeastern routes and the Mediterranean-Danube route. The Iberian metal might have also reached the study area from the north – through its redistribution by Scandinavian traders. Our results show that metal from many sources circulated in central Europe during the Late Bronze Age. The Lusatian Urnfield communities were part of a pan-European exchange network and maintained extensive long-distance contacts, allowing metal acquisition from various sources.

Pilgrimage, Precarity, and Pandemics

Pilgrimage, Precarity, and Pandemics

International manufacturing and trade in colistin, its implications in colistin resistance and One Health global policies: a microbiological, economic, and anthropological study.

The emergence of colistin-resistant Enterobacterales is a global public health concern, yet colistin is still widely used in animals that are used for food as treatment, metaphylaxis, prophylaxis, and growth promotion. Herein, we investigate the effect of colistin-resistant Enterobacterales in Pakistan, global trade of colistin, colistin use at the farm level, and relevant socioeconomic factors. We conducted a microbiological, economic, and anthropological study of colistin-resistant Escherichia coli in humans, animals, and the environment and international trade and knowledge of colistin in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, China, India, and Viet Nam. We collected backyard poultry cloacal swabs, commercial broiler cloacal swabs, cattle and buffalo rectal swabs, human rectal swabs, wild bird droppings, cattle and buffalo meat, sewage water, poultry flies, chicken meat, and canal water from 131 sites across Faisalabad, Pakistan, to be tested for mcr-1-positive and mcr-3-positive Escherichia coli. We recruited new patients admitted to Allied Hospital, Faisalabad, Pakistan, with abdominal pain and diarrhoea for rectal swabs. Patients with dysentery and those who were already on antibiotic treatment were excluded. Data for colistin trade between 2017 and 2020, including importation, manufacturing, and usage, were accessed from online databases and government sources in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria. We recruited participants from poultry farms and veterinary drug stores in Pakistan and Nigeria to be interviewed using a structured questionnaire. International manufacturing, import, and export data; value analysis; and trade routes of colistin pharmaceutical raw material (PRM), feed additive, and finished pharmaceutical products (FPPs) were accessed from 2017-21 export data sets. We collected 1131 samples between May 12, 2018, and July 1, 2019: backyard poultry cloacal swabs (n=100), commercial broiler cloacal swabs (n=102), cattle and buffalo rectal swabs (n=188), human rectal swabs (n=200), wild bird droppings (n=100), cattle and buffalo meat (n=100), sewage water (n=90), poultry flies (n=100), chicken meat (n=100), and canal water (n=51). We recruited 200 inpatients at Allied Hospital, Faisalabad, Pakistan, between Nov 15, 2018, and Dec 14, 2018, for rectal swabs. We recruited 21 participants between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2020, from poultry farms and drug stores in Pakistan and Nigeria to be interviewed. 75 (7%) of 1131 samples contained mcr-1-positive E coli, including wild bird droppings (25 [25%] of 100), commercial broiler cloacal swabs (17 [17%] of 100), backyard poultry cloacal swabs (one [1%] of 100), chicken meat (13 [13%] of 100), cattle and buffalo meat (two [2%] of 100), poultry flies (eight [8%] of 100), sewage water (six [7%] of 90), and human rectal swabs (three [2%] of 200). During 2017-20, Pakistan imported 275·5 tonnes (68·9 tonnes per year, 95% CI 41·2-96·6) of colistin as PRM, all sourced from China, 701·9 tonnes (175·5 tonnes per year, 140·9-210·1) of colistin as feed additives from China and Viet Nam, and 63·0 tonnes (15·8 tonnes per year, 10·4-21·1) of colistin as FPPs from various countries in Asia and Europe. For Bangladesh and Nigeria, colistin PRM and FPPs were imported from China and Europe. Colistin knowledge and usage practices in Pakistan and Nigeria were unsatisfactory in terms of understanding of the effects on human medicine and usage other than for treatment purposes. China is the major manufacturer of PRM and feed additive colistin and exported a total of 2664·8 tonnes (666·2 tonnes per year, 95% CI 262·1 to 1070·2) of PRM and 2570·2 tonnes (642·6 tonnes per year, -89·4 to 1374·5) of feed additive in 1330 shipments during 2018-21 to 21 countries. Regardless of 193 countries signing the UN agreement to tackle antimicrobial resistance, trading of colistin as PRM, FPPs, and feed additive or growth promoter in low-income and middle-income countries continues unabated. Robust national and international laws are urgently required to mitigate the international trade of this antimicrobial listed on WHO Critically Important Antimicrobials for Human Medicine. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council and INEOS Oxford Institute for Antimicrobial Research TRANSLATION: For the Urdu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

First record of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus in Ghana, a potential risk to livestock production.

Ticks are a public health threat due to their tendency to spread pathogens that affect humans and animals. With reports of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus invasion in neighbouring countries, there is the risk of this species invading Ghana through livestock trade. Previous identification of tick species in Ghana has been based on morphological identification, which can be ineffective, especially with damaged tick specimens or engorged nymphs. This study focused on the Kassena-Nankana District, which serves as a trade route for cattle into Ghana, to determine the presence of R. microplus. Three genera of ticks were identified as Amblyomma (70.9%), Hyalomma (21.3%) and Rhipicephalus (7.8%). The engorged nymphs that could not be identified morphologically were analyzed using primers that target the mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene. This study reports the first record of R. (B.) microplus in Ghana. Furthermore, R. microplus constituted 54.8% of the Boophilus species collected in this study. This finding is an addition to the diverse tick species previously collected in Ghana, most of which are of veterinary and public health importance. With reports of acaricide resistance in R. microplus and its role in spreading infectious pathogens, the detection of this species in Ghana cannot be overlooked. Nationwide surveillance will be essential to ascertain its distribution, its effects on cattle production, and the control measures adopted.

Barguzin: Urban History (1783–1927)

The article is devoted to the “urban” period of Barguzin (1783–1927) – one of the oldest settlements in the Republic of Buryatia. Its history has its own peculiarities, closely related to the marginal policy of the state. Founded as a prison settlement on the way of the Cossacks of the Russian Kingdom advancing to the East, Barguzin became one of the first strongholds of the “sovereign’s servants” on the territory of modern Buryatia. After the completion of the process of annexation of the Siberian territories, less than a third of all Siberian prisons – wooden fortresses – got a chance for further development due to their successful transport and geographical location, opportunities for economic development and patronage from the regional authorities. Barguzin was among them. The article for the first time considers the question of compliance of Barguzin with the status of the city throughout its “urban” history. Based on a wide source base, including archival documents introduced into scientific circulation for the first time, the author proves that Barguzin, even with a small population, in the chronological period under study corresponded to the criteria of the city highlighted by researchers: the diversity of the population occupations, a significant economic and political role in the region. Although Barguzin stayed only a few years as the administrative center of Western Transbaikalia, having retained the administrative status of a county town, it became the focus of the political, economic and cultural life of the region, the center of gold mining and a place of mass exile, including the political one, new cultural traditions having been brought to the urban way of life. The author states that Barguzin lost its positions at the end of the XIXth century which is explained by the decline in gold mining and remoteness from the Trans-Siberian railway. During the years of economic prosperity provided by gold mining, Barguzin did not create a material base that, with the depletion of gold placers, could fuel the city, and the remoteness from trade routes excluded a developed trade turnover that provided an influx of population. The loss of Barguzin urban status did not diminish the interest of researchers in its rich history. The basic principles and methods of historical research: objectivity, historicism, scientific, systematic, comparative analysis allowed us to identify cause-and-effect relationships, patterns, facts, features of Barguzin development due to both external and internal factors.

A probabilistic approach to provenance studies using whole object elemental composition: Chert (flint) as a case study

Provenancing archeological artefacts and “whole rock” fragments, such as cobbles and pebbles, is important both for studying past societies and reconstructing geomorphological and sedimentary processes. Determining the provenance of archaeological artefacts, for example, is helpful in the study of various aspects of human society such as mobility, trade routes, raw material procurement strategies and societal development, whereas whole rock fragments are useful indicators of sediment transportation routes and landscape evolution. In this paper, we introduce a novel probabilistic approach for exploring the limitations and potential of provenance studies utilizing trace element composition of archaeological artefacts and bulk rock fragments through a set of statistical analyses, demonstrated using a dataset of chert (flint) samples from the eastern Mediterranean as a case study. Because our general goal is to identify sediment provenance at the highest possible resolution, and attribute it to specific outcrops, the robustness of such classifications must consider the inherent variability of the studied samples, which poses a complex problem when an entire suite of elements is considered.In the current study, a scheme for evaluating the possible resolution and potential of provenance studies of flint artefacts is illustrated by applying a set of statistical techniques. The data is investigated across the different labelling hierarchy using Spearman correlation and the Kruskal-Wallis test, and a synthetic dataset that follows the statistical properties of the original data is generated using multidimensional copulas that mimic the correlation of the different elements within each subset. The synthetic dataset is then iteratively sampled, filtered and passed into a classifier that is evaluated using a set of classification metrics (e.g., accuracy, recall, etc.). Using this probabilistic approach, the power of supervised classification is determined for the different hierarchy levels and classes based on their distributions, and the number of specimens required for distinguishing sources at different levels (e.g., era, age, formation and site) is evaluated. We show that 10–20 specimens are needed to determine the geological era and age of the strata from which flint was collected with reasonable certainty (accuracy >0.9), whereas specific outcrops cannot be reliably identified even when a large number of specimens are considered. This approach has the potential to enable the classification of items of unknown origin and the associated uncertainty by comparing them against a dataset of possible sources that can be expanded over time.

Embodying Ethiopia’s Global Golden Age on the Muslim-Christian Frontier: The Allure of Glass Beads

The period between AD 700 and 1500 has been recently labeled as “Africa’s global Golden Age.” This is particularly true for the Shay communities living on the Muslim-Christian frontier in the ninth to fourteenth century AD. Located in the center of the Ethiopian highlands, the Shay faced the expansion of the Christian kingdoms and the advance of the Muslim polities. In an increasingly violent context of religious conversion and war between the two religious powers, the Shay stressed their independence by burying their deceased in collective structures, contrary to the mortuary practices of both Christians and Muslims, and by including precious local and global grave goods in their tombs. The laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) analysis of 34 glass beads shows how the Shay communities benefited from the Islamic global trade routes at the time, particularly the Middle East, Egypt, and the Indo-Pacific networks. This article examines the crucial role of global glass beads in the construction of a trans-corporeal landscape among the Shay that served the emergence and consolidation of the social self as a collective identity against their Christian and Muslim neighbors.

Энтони Дженкинсон және оның 16 ғасырдағы Орталық Азияның картографиялық схемаларын ревизиясы

The article is devoted to the analysis of a new cartographic scheme of Central Asia of the 16th century, proposed by Anthony Jenkinson in his description of his journey through Russia and Central Asia in 1557–1559 (published in 1589) and in his map compiled with the help of cartographer Clement Adams and based on Russian and English documents, and his own observations. Jenkinson’s new cartographic scheme became widespreaddue to the copies of his map reproduced by many major cartographers, including Gerard Mercator and Abraham Ortelius. The original map was discovered only in the 1980s by the Polish researcher Kristina Szykula. The spatial organization scheme, on the one hand, partially remained true to the graphic line of Ptolemy (where the Oxus flows into the Caspian Sea), and, on the other hand, contained such toponyms as Tartaria, Turchestan, Persia, Corasan, India orientalis, China, Cathaio and Mongol, which had appeared in cartographic space thanks to many travelers. The revolutionary element of this scheme, according to the new positioning of Tashkent, Amu Darya, Syr Darya and Ob, were the following elements: 1) Amu Darya (Oxus) and Syr Darya (Jaxartes) are separated from the Caspian Sea; 2) they are related to Kitaia Lacus; 3) Kitaia Lacus can be interpreted as Aral; 4) Kitaia Lacusis connected with the river Oby (Ob); 5) the river Oby (Ob) is associated with Sur (Syr Darya) and Tashkent; 6) Kitaia Lacus is related to Cathay, which starts immediately east of the Ob and possibly describes not Ming Northern China, but Mongolia.A comparative analysis of the description of the journey and the copies of Jenkinson’s maps has shown the process of incorporating new knowledge about the region into the cartographic space and the stability of old schemes. The resulting compromise solution was reflected on the maps in the form of several layers of information and duplication of individual objects (thus, the Amu Darya is represented on the map twice: as Ougus (Ptolemy’s scheme) and as Amow (Jenkinson’s scheme)), double naming of one object (the Syr Darya acts simultaneously as Oby and as Sur) and deformation of space (Cathay is located near the island of Novaya Zemlya, on the proposed trade route from England to China).

Seasonality and forecasting analysis of the South-East Asian container freight market

PurposeWhile previous studies focused mainly on East Asia to Europe or United States trade routes, in recent years, trade among South-East Asian countries has increased notably. The price of transporting a container is not fixed and can fluctuate heavily over the course of a week. Besides, extant literature only identified seasonality patterns in the container freight market, but did not explore route-varying seasonality patterns. Hence, this study analyses container freight seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian routes of the South-East Asian Freight Index (SEAFI) and the index itself and forecasts them.Design/methodology/approachData of the composite SEAFI and six routes are collected from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) including 167 weekly observations from 2016 to 2019. The SEAFI and individual route data reflect spot rates from the Shanghai Port to South-East Asia base ports. The authors analyse seasonality patterns using polar plots. For forecasting, the study utilize two univariate models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive neural network (SNNAR). For both models, the authors compare forecasting results of original level and log-transformed data.FindingsThis study finds that the seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian container trade routes are identical in an overall but exhibits unique characteristics. ARIMA models perform better than SNNAR models for one-week ahead test-sample forecasting. The SNNAR models offer better performance for 4-week ahead forecasting for two selected routes only.Practical implicationsMajor industry players such as shipping lines, shippers, ship-owners and others should take into account the route-level seasonality patterns in their decision-making. Forecast analysts can consider using the original level data without log transformation in their analysis. The authors suggest using ARIMA models in one-step and four-step ahead forecasting for majority of the routes. The SNNAR models are recommended for multi-step forecasting for Shanghai to Vietnam and Shanghai to Thailand routes only.Originality/valueThis study analyses a new shipping index, that is, the SEAFI and its underlying six routes. The authors analyze the seasonality pattern of container freight rate data using polar plot and perform forecasting using ARIMA and SNNAR models. Moreover, the authors experiment forecasting performance of log-transformed and non-transformed series.

Risk factors associated with contagious caprine pleuropneumonia in goats of Amhara region, Ethiopia

Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) is a serious contagious disease of goats, sheep and wild ruminants caused by Mycoplasma capricolum subspecies capripneumoniae. The disease is known for its high mortality, morbidity and economic losses. A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling technique was conducted in Amhara region from January 2019 to July 2019 to estimate seroprevalence and identify risk factors of CCPP occurrence in the region. A total of 2080 goats from 61 villages and 12 districts of the region were tested for CCPP serostatus using Competitive Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (C-ELISA). A multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors of CCPP seropositivity at animal and flock-level. The serum sample results revealed an overall animal level seroprevalence of 5.1% (95% CI: 3.8–6.6) and flock-level prevalence of 26.0% (95% CI: 19.7–33.4). At individual animal level, presence of other health problems (OR = 45.9 (95% CI: 25.3–83.4)), age (adult age (OR = 6.2 (95% CI:3.4–11.4)) and old age (OR = 13.1 (95% CI: 6.2–27.8))), and breed type (Afar (OR= 32.3 (95% CI: 2.9–366.1)), Central highland (OR=13.7 (95% CI: 1.3–140.6)), and western highland (OR=16.2 (95% CI: 1.4–185.7))) were identified as risk factors for CCPP seropositivity. In contrast, contact with other flocks (OR = 59.9 (95% CI: 6.1–585.6)), presence of trade route (OR = 3.1 (95% CI: 1.0–9.1)) and presence of sheep (OR = 2.6 (95% CI: 1.2–5.7)) were flock-level risk factors for CCPP seropositivity. Generally, CCPP appears to be common among goats of Amhara region. Goat flocks dominated with older age animals; breeds of Afar, central highland, and western highland; raise with sheep; have contact with other flocks; and kept along trade routes are more at risk for CCPP. Hence, awareness creation to the producers, movement control, and regular prophylactic vaccination should be considered to control CCPP in Amhara region.