Trade Movement Research Articles

THE REFLECTION OF ECONOMIC OPENNESS ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

From the above, the researcher believes that it can be said that the third chapter reflects the reflection of economic openness on the structure of the balance of payments. The first section included an analysis of the items of the balance of payments in light of trade liberalization. The first requirement included the reflection of cash flows on the structure of the balance of payments in light of trade liberalization, indicating the effect of economic openness on the current account and the effect of economic openness on the capital account and external balance and imbalance. The balance of payments is affected by the movement of foreign trade at the level of economic analysis of any country, as it reflects the degree of overlap of the local economy with the global economy. In addition, the economic transactions included in it reflect, in terms of content, the structure of production and the strength of the national economy and its competitive ability. In the best case scenario, increased savings in the developing economy lead to an accumulation of non-tradable goods with a slight improvement in the balance of payments. As for investment in the developing economy, including government spending, it is likely to be less affected by profit expectations and interest rates than is usually the case in advanced capitalist economies. As a result, it is better to consider investment as a mere external variable, while the demand for exports is affected by factors such as The relationship between internal and external prices expressed in a common currency, the nature of trade restrictions in foreign markets, and the level of real income in the rest of the world. Most of these factors are independent of the level of income in the exporting country. Accordingly, the demand for exports can be considered an external variable. The main objective of banking supervision is to enhance the soundness of the banking system, so it requires that it be able to develop effectively. A good supervisory system requires a new and tight formulation of the legal framework related to supervision and supervisors obtaining sufficient resources and appropriate technology that enables them to obtain and review information. The second requirement: The correction mechanism in light of cash flows. Experimental evidence. The third requirement: The role of the central bank in processing cash flows. The role of the central bank in processing cash flows and the functions and objectives of banking supervision of the central bank.

The Influenc of International Trade Movement on Egyptian Stock index Flactuation

The Influenc of International Trade Movement on Egyptian Stock index Flactuation

Trade Effects of Non-Tariff Barriers in Tanzania: A Case of the Dar es Salaam-Namanga Busy Border Trade Post

The main objective of this study is to examine and quantify the effects of Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) on cargo trade movement in Tanzania, focusing on the Dar es Salaam-Namanga Border Post. Specifically, the study aims to identify the main administrative or technical requirements along this trade route (both old and new), analyze the regularity of these requirements based on respondents’ feedback, and provide recommendations for mitigating NTBs. The study utilized an empirical survey design, collecting mostly qualitative data on border trade performance and perceived non-tariff barriers. The research was guided by economic theory and targeted formal and informal cross-border traders, transport companies, truck drivers, weighbridge attendants, and customs and revenue authorities. Data was collected through desk research, interviews, questionnaires, and stakeholder consultations. The Dar es Salaam-Namanga route was chosen for its importance as the busiest commercial corridor in the East African Community (EAC). The study employed both probability and non-probability sampling techniques, restricted to the Arusha-Namanga roadway. Four data collection methods were used: desk research, interviews, questionnaires, and stakeholder consultations. The data were analyzed using thematic analysis for qualitative information, and an econometric model based on Newton's gravitational equation (a modified gravity model) was used to quantify trade effects. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was employed for stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. The model's predictive power was tested using an F-test, and it was verified to meet assumptions of linearity, homoscedasticity, and multicollinearity. The results revealed that roadblocks, customs clearance, permits, and road infrastructure significantly affected trade performance. Unethical practices at weighbridges, frequent police checks, and customs procedures lead to monetary losses and time delays for cross-border traders. Bribery, police checks, and unloading processes during inspections were identified as factors contributing to the perception of NTBs as costly and time-consuming. On a positive note, improved road conditions have reduced transportation costs by lowering vehicle repair expenses and decreasing travel time. The study concludes that there is a need for regional cooperation within the EAC to eliminate existing NTBs. It recommends streamlining administrative procedures and working hours at border points, and implementing monitoring systems to ensure the effective removal of unnecessary barriers to trade. These measures are essential to improving trade efficiency and promoting the goals of the re-established East African Community.

Monitoring the Influence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: New Guidelines on Patient Care during the 2011-2012 Multiwaves and Multivariant Outbreak in Hai Phong City, Vietnam.

From 2011 to 2012, Northern Vietnam suffered its first large-scale hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemic. Two sets of official guidelines were issued during the outbreak to handle the HFMD crisis. The city of Hai Phong was used as a model to analyze the impact of the released guidelines. A total of 9621 HFMD cases were reported in Hai Phong city from April 2011 to December 2012. Three distinct waves of HFMD occurred. Enterovirus A71 and Coxsackievirus A16 were successively associated with the epidemics. Two periods, before and after the guidelines' release, could be distinguished and characterized by different patient patterns. The time to admission and severity changed notably. Guideline publications help the health system refocus on the 0.5-3 years age group with the highest incidence of the disease. The three waves showed different special distribution, but the main routes of infection were rivers and local secondary roads, most likely through local trade and occupational movements of people.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE PREDICTION OF INDONESIA'S LARGEST TRADING PARTNER BASED ON VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Foreign exchange rates from the currencies of trading partners are a critical element in the development of Indonesia's economic landscape. As an active country in international trade, Indonesia's economic health is highly dependent on trade partnerships, movements, and interactions of foreign exchange rates from Indonesia's main trading partners. To achieve economic stability, Bank Indonesia intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep the Rupiah exchange rate within a reasonable range. Indonesia is committed to achieving several points in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as point 17, which emphasizes partnerships, and point 8, which underlines inclusive and sustainable economic growth. This commitment is an important factor in Indonesia's economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the exchange rate value of Indonesia's largest trading partners considering these SDG aspects. In this study, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to predict the foreign exchange rate of Indonesia's largest trading partners. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the investing.com webpage, comprising weekly data from January 2021 to November 2023. The foreign exchange rates of Indonesia's largest trading partners have a cointegration relationship, indicating long-term relationships and similarities in movements. The best model identified is VECM (1), with a very accurate MAPE value of 3.29%. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis shows that the Chinese Yuan responds variably to different currencies, stabilizing over time. Variance Decomposition reveals that short-term fluctuations in the Chinese Yuan are primarily influenced by itself (87.89%) and significantly by the Singapore Dollar, South Korean Won, and Taiwan Dollar. The Granger Causality Test indicates that the Philippine Peso influences 11 other exchange rates, refining the VECM model and improving prediction accuracy. Indonesia is expected to build economic collaborations that can help achieve economic stability.

Modeling Multi-Output Back-Propagation DNN for Forecasting Indonesian Export-Import

Introduction/Main Objectives: International trade through the mechanisms of exports and imports plays a significant role in the Indonesian economy, making the timely availability of export and import value data crucial. Background Problems: Export and import values are influenced by inflation and exchange rate factors. Novelty: This study identifies two categories of variables, namely output (export value and import value) and input (inflation rate and the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US Dollar). Research Methods: the research approach utilizes a Multi-output Deep Neural Network (DNN) with a Back-propagation algorithm to model the input-output relationship. The method can provide forecasting results for two or more bivariate or multivariate output variables. Finding/Results: The modeling analysis results indicate that the optimal model network structure is DNN (3.4). This model successfully predicts output 1 (export value) and output 2 (import value) with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) rates of 13.76% and 13.63%, respectively. Additionally, the forecasting results show predicted export and import values for November to be US$ 16,208.13 billion and US$ 15,105.33 billion, respectively. These findings offer important insights into the direction of Indonesia's international trade movement, which can serve as a basis for future economic decision-making.

Compliance is far from standard: Relational conditions of access and exclusion in agriculture

Regulatory regimes codify complex social objectives for agriculture, and judge producers' compliance relative to the resulting rules and standards. By combining Access Theory with Regulator-Intermediary-Target Theory, we frame farmers' compliance with agricultural rules and standards as a dynamic, relational product of social networks, rather than an asset that a farmer either has or lacks. To build these arguments, we compare four cases of governance over distinct social objectives sought from agricultural production: (1) legitimacy, examined through ongoing cannabis legalization in California; (2) safety, examined through the proliferation of microbial risk management into specialty crop agriculture in the United States; (3) organic, examined through the evolution of the US National Organic Program standards; and (4) fairness, examined through the fair trade movement and the split between Fair Trade International and Fair Trade USA. We find that farmers must continuously negotiate their compliance to maintain market access. Three key types of intermediaries participate in that negotiation: gatekeeping intermediaries who judge who shall pass, normative intermediaries who reify norms of ‘good’ as opposed to ‘bad’ farms and farmers, and facilitating intermediaries upon whom farmers depend to help them claim compliance. Our comparative analysis reveals novel insights into the network of social relations that shape who can comply and who cannot, which in turn determines who may participate in agriculture, in what ways, and for the sake of whom.

From market-based development to value chain transformation: What markets can (not) do for rural poverty alleviation?

Market reforms are considered as an important strategy to support poverty reduction amongst small-scale agrifood producers in developing and emerging economies. Most attention is commonly focused on voluntary initiatives that provide a guaranteed minimum price to farmers and improve services for rural communities, supplemented by good agricultural practices for higher productivity, environmental quality and to support living incomes. Whereas alternative trade movements have become ‘mainstream’ their market shares are stagnating. Since agrifood markets have changed substantially and trade networks are restructured, smallholders are increasingly controlled by midstream agents (traders and processors) and captured into contract farming arrangements. This article outlines a new discourse around value chain transformation that supports local processing for income and employment generation and favours better integrated supply chains based on circularity and trust. It identifies new alliances between producers and traders that change market governance beyond simple adjustments in exchange relationships. Combining public investments (market infrastructure) with civic-driven organization (cooperation and contracts) and private networks (for profit redistribution along the value chain) offers interesting opportunities for linking sustainable business practices with value-driven trade arrangements.

Organizing sustainable and fair agri-food systems: exploring the role of north-north alternative food networks in the European Union

ABSTRACT Alternative Food Networks (AFNs) have grown globally since the late 1990s to promote responsible consumption and production in the agri-food sector, although their expansion varies across countries and socio-economic contexts. Initially, the Fair Trade movement and development organizations established AFNs to address socio-environmental challenges faced by producers in the Global South. However, as cooperation and development agendas evolve, more Fair Trade and development actors are forming North-North AFNs (N-N AFNs) to tackle socio-economic imbalances in agri-food systems of the Global North, especially in the EU. Despite their prevalence, these initiatives and their structures lack extensive academic study. Drawing on Le Velly’s framework for the analysis of AFNs, this paper conducts an in-depth qualitative analysis of three N-N AFN initiatives in Belgium, Italy, and Greece. The analysis demonstrates that while these initiatives share common objectives in terms of fairness and shortness of the agri-food system, variations arise in terms of its accessibility and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, the findings emphasize that there is no one-size-fits-all model for N-N AFNs across Europe, as different organizational arrangements – such as farmers’ cooperatives, consumers’ cooperatives, and business partnerships – emerge in response to specific project goals within each national context.

ICOOP puzzle: localistic practices, internationalism values, and Fair Trade in South Korea’s cooperative movement

ABSTRACT This article illuminates an intellectual puzzle of how South Korean cooperative movements attempt to overcome the dilemma between localistic practices and the value of internationalism. Moving beyond anti-capitalistic debates of building links globally, the cooperative movement brings Fair Trade products from developing countries to consumer cooperatives in South Korea, resulting in a scaling up of community economies globally and forging real international solidarity. Engaging with feminist theories put forward by Gibson-Graham and their collaborators, this article calls upon an expanded feminist politics that challenge the “spatial bounding” of community economies that are often joined with localistic practices. Born as one of the most significant forms of community economies to address the economic precarity of grassroots farmers and workers during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, iCOOP was set up as a consumer cooperative federation to support local Korean producers with alternative market linkage. Through Fair Trade movement, iCOOP serves as an interesting case to overcome localistic practices and nurture the value of internationalism. This article develops an expanded feminist politics of community economies to confront the tendency of localistic practices by providing four layers of analysis: value, campaign tactics, new governance structure, and scaling solidarity.

Distributed Lag Non-linear Model을 이용한 Baltic Dry Index 예측 및 요인 별 시차 영향도 도출에 관한 연구

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a crucial and representative indicator in the shipping logistics industry sector for evaluating the market conditions, providing valuable information on the movement of global trade and production operations. The BDI, known for its significant volatility, has been the focus of several research initiatives utilizing machine learning and deep learning approaches to improve accuracy. Nevertheless, these approaches frequently encounter difficulties in understanding the results of the predictions. This study provides a framework that utilizes the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model to enhance the predictive accuracy of the BDI. The proposed model has the capability of capturing lag effects based on different factors to improve the prediction results. To evaluate the efficacy of the suggested approach, we carried out comparison experiments utilizing four performance metrics that have been widely utilized in previous studies to compare with different machine learning and deep learning models. The results showed enhanced prediction accuracy in comparison with existing methodologies. The lag effects by factor have been examined using the trained DLNM model, and we verified that the analyzed results are in good agreement with prior research by comparing them with previous research

Analysis of Trade Effects of Parallel Exchange Rate in Nigeria

Aims: The study examines the potency of parallel exchange rates in the movement of international trade in Nigeria. The monetary authorities have embarked on various exchange rate regimes basically because the supply of foreign exchange is not enough to meet the demand. Consequently, a parallel market for exchange rates exists and has become a strong and functional market in the country. But the reason for managing foreign exchange and by extension, introducing various exchange rate regimes was to correct the balance of trade disequilibrium. Yet the balance of trade deteriorates, particularly that of non-oil trade balance. Does the parallel exchange rate contribute to this or does it ameliorate it? Study Design: Descriptive, Correlation, and Regression analysis on time series data. Place and Duration of Study: Sample: Monthly data from January 2007 to December 2022 (2007:1-2022:12) were extracted from the online data repository of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Methodology: The autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on monthly data between January 2007 and December 2022 (2007:1-2022:12). Results: The result indicates that the short-run dynamics of total exports (total imports) are negatively (positively) and significantly affected by parallel exchange rate. Generally, depreciation of the parallel exchange rate is detrimental to export particularly non-oil exports. Further, depreciation of parallel exchange rate encourages imports and highly persistent in influencing non-oil imports. The J-curve phenomenon breaks down for total balance of trade. However, the J-curve phenomenon cannot be confirmed in the case of oil trade balance because there is no information about the long run effect of parallel exchange rate on oil export due to the non-integration of the model. In the case of non-oil trade balance, the short-run outcome confirms the existence of the J-curve prediction. Conclusion: Following these results, it is recommended among others that government should activate a single market (window) for foreign exchange. Also, the authorities should ensure that importation of non-oil products such as exotic cars by government officials be stemmed.

Globalization: Embracing global citizenship and the right to migrate.

This comprehensive commentary explores various facets of globalization, including the right to migrate, cultural dimensions, power dynamics in shaping global narratives, the impact of globalization on health, and the roles of international institutions and multinational corporations. It delves into the socioeconomic implications of migration, emphasizing the ethical considerations surrounding globalization and the responsibilities of affluent nations. Examples such as the Fair Trade movement, global collaboration in health care during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and the influence of power dynamics on cultural narratives provide a nuanced understanding. The commentary underscores the need for international collaboration, ethical business practices, and responsible investment to address global challenges. By examining these dimensions, the analysis contributes to a holistic understanding of the complexities associated with globalization, emphasizing the importance of balanced and inclusive approaches. This commentary is in response to an editorial published in this journal titled "Globalization through global citizenship and right to migrate."

Ecological Traits and Socio-Economic Impacts of the Alien Invader Weed Parthenium hysterophorus L. in South Africa’s Rangeland Ecosystems: A Review

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae), commonly known as famine weed in South Africa, is one of the most invasive weeds worldwide, accountable for losses to biodiversity, agriculture, the economy, and the health of livestock and human beings. The spread of this weed is not easy to manage or reverse. With globalization, trade, and human movement, it will continue to spread, allowing its range to expand into new areas. This weed has serious adverse effects on rangeland and agricultural crop production. Because of its unique characteristics, its invasiveness and competitive success rates are attributed to its high reproductive ability, fast growth rate, tolerance to environmental stresses, climate change adaptability, allelopathic potential, and unpalatability to animals. Parthenium hysterophorus dominates diverse habitats by spreading quickly as a contaminant of grain and other crop products and through farm machinery. It is widely distributed and has become problematic in various countries, including South Africa. It has successfully invaded several provinces in the country since its introduction in 1880. Since plant invasions are not universal, this study aimed to review research that has been conducted on the aggressive weed P. hysterophorus to understand the ecological characteristics that enable its successful establishment, the economic costs associated with its detrimental impacts, and to briefly assess knowledge gaps to improve its management strategies.

Global Social Movements (GSMs) and Non-Governmental Organizations: Investigating the Impact on Global Social Change

Global Social Movements (GSMs) have become integral to the study of Sociology and International Politics, reflecting the interconnectedness of global communities on diverse issues. Orchestrated by NGOs and INGOs, GSMs encompass environmental, women’s, human rights, racial, fair trade, and refugee movements, among others, reflecting the breadth of global concerns. However, challenges arise from political affiliations between civil society members and state authorities, as well as pressures from donor countries and ruling elites in economically disadvantaged nations. This study, employing content analysis methodology, aims to delineate the causes of GSMs, investigate the roles of INGOs and civil society, and explore the interplay between GSMs and global governance. Through critical analysis, it provides insights and recommendations to enhance the effectiveness and inclusivity of GSMs in addressing global challenges, thus contributing to the advancement of global democracy and governance structures.

Đánh giá tác động của biện pháp kỹ thuật đến xuất khẩu thủy sản tươi sống và chế biến của Việt Nam

Global free trade movement has emphasized on the role of technical measures as the primary tool to regulate trade. The number of research both theoretically and empirically on this field has expanded significantly, however the results derived are often inconsistent about the magnitude as well as the direction of impact that technical measures impose on trade. This paper aims at contributing to the understading related to the dynamic of technical measures’ impact on trade. Using gravity model and the export data of Vietnam’s fresh and processed seafood, the results of this paper has shown that, SPS measures have positive impact on Vietnam’s fresh seafood trade, however, this impact on Vietnam’s processed seafood is mixed. TBT measures fail to show statistically significant impact on fresh seafood trade volume, however, have a negative impact on processed export. Based on these results, this paper also suggests adequate solutions for Vietnam’s seafood exporter with the aim of promoting trade volume.

Survey of antibodies to Peste des petits ruminants virus in small ruminants in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a viral disease affecting sheep and goats caused by peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) has a serious economic impact due to the restrictions on animal trade and animal movements and high mortality rates in small ruminant populations. The common clinical sings of the PPR are fever, muco-purulent nasal discharge, diarrhoea and abortion. Seroepidemiological studies of PPRV infection in sheep and goats in Turkey are scant. Therefore, this study was aimed to evaluate the seroprevalence of PPR in small ruminants in Turkey. Ovine blood samples were collected by random sampling method from sheep (n = 77) and goats (n = 61) from unvaccinated flocks (n = 40) in the Antalya Province in the Mediterranean region of Turkey. A competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (c-ELISA) kit was used to detect antibodies against PPRV in sera samples. Out of 138 sera samples analysed, eighteen sera samples (13%, 95% CI: 7.4 - 18.7) were PPRV seropositive, of which 18.2% (95% CI: 9.6 - 26.8; 14/77) were from sheep, whereas 6.6% (95% CI: 0.3 - 12.8; 4/61) were from goats. Although PPRV seropositivity rate was higher in sheep than goats, it was not statistically significant (P = 0.07). PPRV seropositivity was higher in small ruminants older than 24 months (19.4%) compared with less than or equal to 24 months (7%) (P = 0.04). Although, there was no statistically significant difference between sexes, PPRV seropositivity rate was higher (14.5%) in females than males (10.9%) (P = 0.61). The flock-level seroprevalence was 30% (12/40). The result of the present study showed that seroprevalence of PPRV infection is high in sheep and goats in the Antalya Province. However, results of the study are not enough to determine the regional and country-based profile of the PPRV infection in Turkey. Further epidemiological studies are required to get more epidemiology data on PPR in Turkey.

Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in MINT Countries: Time Series Analysis

With the globalization process, there have been significant increases in international trade and international capital movements. In this context, international performance indicators of countries have come to the fore. The current account deficit is important in terms of expressing the external balances of countries. Today, the sustainability of the current account deficit, not its existence, is considered as a performance indicator. MINT countries are defined as countries with young populations and high development potential in terms of natural resources and geographical location. In this study, the sustainability of the current account deficits of MINT countries was investigated. The data range of the study was determined as 1981-2021. The current account deficit/GDP ratio of the countries and the export and import values of each country were used as the data set. As an econometric method in the study; From time series analyses, unit root tests, variance decomposition and cointegration tests were applied. According to the findings, the current account deficit was found to be unsustainable for the Indonesian economy. It has been determined that current account deficits are sustainable in the economies of Mexico, Nigeria and Türkiye. However, it has been determined that the sustainability of the current account deficit in Nigeria is weak. Within the framework of the findings, the unique structural situations of each country are explained.

Academic connections to socio-economic movements: Are there lessons for Fair Trade from the co-operative movement?

Abstract Historically, the co-operative movements and Fair Trade movements are amongst the most prominent socio-economic movements. One of the many features that they have in common is the close relations that both movements have had with academics, including the latters’ roles in the generation, transmission and application of knowledge related to these movements. This article examines the degree to which academics have been able to support these two movements through the generation of recognized bodies of knowledge, the development of fields of study and the establishment of knowledge management systems among practitioners, and raises the question of whether academics involved in the much newer Fair Trade practice might benefit by drawing upon lessons from the considerably longer history of academics involved in co-operatives studies, especially their organization of national and international scholarly associations.

Galvanising Youth Engagement in Fair Trade: Lessons from the FTIS 2023 workshop

Abstract This article reflects on the outcomes of a workshop at the Fair Trade International Symposium in June 2023 which explored some of the ways young people are engaging in Fair Trade. Campaigners recognize the importance of giving leadership responsibilities to young people with fresh ideas and social connections to help expand the Fair Trade movement. There are opportunities to engage young people through the connections between Fair Trade and the environmental and social issues that young people are passionate about today. The workshop showcased three such initiatives: a climate and food security debate; an ethical enterprise project; and Fairtrade Fortnight events at the University of Leeds. Through these initiatives young people learned about trade (in)justice and gained a deeper understanding of the root causes of sustainability issues, whilst gaining transferable skills and building competencies to work collaboratively and creatively. Engaging with Fair Trade can provide young people with experiential learning opportunities that forward the goals of the Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) agenda and promote the relevance of the Fair Trade movement to a younger generation.