Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in MINT Countries: Time Series Analysis

Abstract

With the globalization process, there have been significant increases in international trade and international capital movements. In this context, international performance indicators of countries have come to the fore. The current account deficit is important in terms of expressing the external balances of countries. Today, the sustainability of the current account deficit, not its existence, is considered as a performance indicator. MINT countries are defined as countries with young populations and high development potential in terms of natural resources and geographical location. In this study, the sustainability of the current account deficits of MINT countries was investigated. The data range of the study was determined as 1981-2021. The current account deficit/GDP ratio of the countries and the export and import values of each country were used as the data set. As an econometric method in the study; From time series analyses, unit root tests, variance decomposition and cointegration tests were applied. According to the findings, the current account deficit was found to be unsustainable for the Indonesian economy. It has been determined that current account deficits are sustainable in the economies of Mexico, Nigeria and Türkiye. However, it has been determined that the sustainability of the current account deficit in Nigeria is weak. Within the framework of the findings, the unique structural situations of each country are explained.