Tough Policy Research Articles

More than Putin: managed pluralism in Russia's foreign policy

Abstract The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine took most experts by surprise, but before the war, there were numerous voices in the Russian public debate calling for much tougher policies towards Ukraine and the West than the ones pursued by the government. This article challenges explanations that prioritize external factors or focus solely on President Putin and shows that examining opposition, state media and government discourses is necessary to understand Russia's foreign policy properly. The article contends that the concept of managed pluralism (defined by Harley Balzer in 2003), which has not yet been used in the analysis of Moscow's international behaviour, is a useful tool that can address the gap in the literature and shed light on important mechanisms behind Russia's foreign policy-making. Consequently, the article reveals mechanisms that, by allowing certain voices while eliminating others, steer Russia's foreign policy in a specific direction, which in this case made the invasion of Ukraine possible. Finally, it indicates that observing actors admitted to the public debate and their propositions may be a clue to the direction of Russia's future foreign policy. More broadly, this article points to policy implications and theoretical benefits of managed pluralism for our understanding of other states' foreign policies.

КӨДЕК БАЙШЫҒАНҰЛЫНЫҢ САЯСИ ЛИРИКАСЫ

This article widely examines the work of the poet Kodek Baishiganuly and analyzes his political lyrics, in which his civic position is clearly manifested. Looking at the poet’s works, which reveal the reality of the period in which he lived, the truth and the historical events depicted in them are assessed, and the poet’s civil and political views are comprehensively differentiated. His skill in depicting the arbitrariness of Soviet power in the Kazakh steppe, including in the Alban tribe inhabited by Zhetysu, will be appreciated. In most of poet’s works, the truth life of the colonized people is revealed through specific examples. The article analyzes in depth the lines of the poem that vividly describe the social contradictions that the poet saw with his own eyes and didn’t disappear from his consciousness. Poet’s work provides evidence that the tough policies of the Soviet period in the ХХ weren’t ignored. Together with the poet’s poems, a scene of harsh years is considered, when the cattle of a rich village were swept out and exiled. Even the fact that some of them were shot as “enemies of the people” and that violence, unfair pressure caused public discontent is analyzed in detail. The incurable poet concludes that his sadness is caused by ideals and interests of the country. The dramatic of the work is emphasized, expressing the bitter truth of society, expressing its despair. The political campaigns of the XX are analyzed in depth, declaring that all political campaigns “killed people with a merciless conspiracy.” Without leaving without attention single sad moment in the life of the country, step is being taken to show the legacy of the poet in new light, presenting poet’s life to the gaze of many.

COVID‐19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal

AbstractWe use economywide models to examine the economic recovery from COVID‐19 shocks in Bangladesh and Nepal during 2020–2026. Declining labor productivity, capital underutilization, consumption shifts, and international investment shocks had significant and differential sectoral and country‐level impacts in these countries. By 2026, GDP will be 6.9% and 13.9% lower in Bangladesh and Nepal, respectively, and the two countries will have an additional 3.3 million people in poverty compared to a no‐COVID baseline. Regaining economic and welfare losses will require substantial investments in key industrial, agricultural, and tourism sectors, although tough policy decisions will be required given high levels of public debt.

СОПЕРНИЧЕСТВО США И КНР В СОЦИАЛЬНО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЙ СФЕРЕ ПРИ АДМИНИСТРАЦИИ Д. ТРАМПА

This article proposes a systematic study of the deliberately antagonistic US foreign policy towards China in the socio-political sphere. The escalation of rivalry between the US and China in the socio-political sphere happened extremely quickly, and all because the Trump administration tried its best to increase regular pressure on China, artificially politicizing almost every problematic moment in modern US-Chinese relations. The goal of such a tough policy was justified by D. Trump's team by the fact that the growth of the power of the PRC poses a direct challenge not only to the values, interests, security and well-being of the United States, but also to the foundations of the existing system of international relations, where America occupies a leading position. From 2017 to 2021 there was a sharp aggravation of rivalry between the US and China in the socio-political sphere happened very quickly. The quantity of mutual restrictions has exceeded the number of similar measures in all the years since the collapse of the bipolar system. The most powerful surge of mutual sanctions, restrictions and bans occurred in 2019–2020, when economic contradictions and the problem associated with the spread of COVID-19 reached their peak. In addition, we have to admit that due to such harsh anti-Chinese rhetoric that emerged with the advent of the Trump administration, US-Chinese cooperation in the socio-political field has practically come to naught. The limits of such comprehensive rivalry have not yet been exhausted, and there are no prerequisites for a reset of US-China relations yet.

ПАКИСТАН — ИНДИЯ: РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЕ ПРОТИВОСТОЯНИЕ (2018 – 2023 гг.)

The author of the article went beyond the analysis of the traditional bilateral relations between Pakistan and India, focusing on the confrontation of these countries at the regional and international levels. The struggle for influence in the region, for sales markets, for profitable multibillion-dollar commercial projects, for increasing labor quotas, in particular with the Gulf countries, is intensifying. Not being an Islamic state, India is strengthening its position in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. The withdrawal of US/NATO troops from Kabul in August 2021 also had an impact on the Afghan vector of the countries’ foreign policy. The Anti-Taliban case (2001–2021) of the Indian Foreign Ministry has failed. But the danger of losing the Afghan, and as a result, the likely logistical challenges of cooperation with the Central Asian states, convinced New Delhi to reconsider the approaches the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan welcomed it’ return to power. However, his tough policy towards the terrorist organization the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was the challenge for Pakistani-Afghan relations, which India took advantage of. The government of Prime minister Narendra Modi, since coming to power in 2014, characterizes Pakistan as a terrorist state; and refuses bilateral negotiations and cooperation in «small» regional organizations, in particular with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) starting from 2016. It paralyzed the activity of this organization. But the Pakistani economy is facing the deepest economic crisis, that is why is interested in the increasing the volume of export of domestic products in region, and an influx of foreign currency, primarily to safe foreign exchange reserves. Logistically, Pakistan is ‘cut off ’ by the territory of India from the states of South East Asia. Continuing the theme of the ‘terrorist state’, New Delhi (Pakistan has been in the ‘grey’ list in 2018) insisted on the transfer of Islamabad to the ‘black list’ of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing (FATF). The result of the subsequent sanctions was, first of all, the downgrading of the country’s investment rate, which hurt the country’s business. New Delhi did not abandon its position even on the day the sanctions were lifted from Pakistan in September 2022. It is difficult to admit, but India’s tendencies towards political isolation and measures indirectly aimed at curbing Pakistan’s trade and economic ties in the region are evident.

A predictive decision support system for coronavirus disease 2019 response management and medical logistic planning.

Coronavirus disease 2019 demonstrated the inconsistencies in adequately responding to biological threats on a global scale due to a lack of powerful tools for assessing various factors in the formation of the epidemic situation and its forecasting. Decision support systems have a role in overcoming the challenges in health monitoring systems in light of current or future epidemic outbreaks. This paper focuses on some applied examples of logistic planning, a key service of the Earth Cognitive System for Coronavirus Disease 2019 project, here presented, evidencing the added value of artificial intelligence algorithms towards predictive hypotheses in tackling health emergencies. Earth Cognitive System for Coronavirus Disease 2019 is a decision support system designed to support healthcare institutions in monitoring, management and forecasting activities through artificial intelligence, social media analytics, geospatial analysis and satellite imaging. The monitoring, management and prediction of medical equipment logistic needs rely on machine learning to predict the regional risk classification colour codes, the emergency rooms attendances, and the forecast of regional medical supplies, synergically enhancing geospatial and temporal dimensions. The overall performance of the regional risk colour code classifier yielded a high value of the macro-average F1-score (0.82) and an accuracy of 85%. The prediction of the emergency rooms attendances for the Lazio region yielded a very low root mean square error (<11 patients) and a high positive correlation with the actual values for the major hospitals of the Lazio region which admit about 90% of the region's patients. The prediction of the medicinal purchases for the regions of Lazio and Piemonte has yielded a low root mean squared percentage error of 16%. Accurate forecasting of the evolution of new cases and drug utilisation enables the resulting excess demand throughout the supply chain to be managed more effectively. Forecasting during a pandemic becomes essential for effective government decision-making, managing supply chain resources, and for informing tough policy decisions.

Choice of a logistics route for cargo delivery in modern conditions

The current conditions of the global movement of goods under sanctions make it necessary to build new logistics routes along those international transport corridors that will ensure the reliability of transportation. Crisis points in any industry are at the same time a potential for development and growth, which is confirmed by the history of the development of logistics in the XX century. Basic principles of logistics and methods of quality management theory should serve as a basis for choosing the vector of transport and production development. Transit potential of the Russian Federation is unlocked by the Northern Sea Route, latitudinal corridor “East-West” and meridional corridor “North-South”. Tough policies of some countries make it necessary to redirect commodity flows along new logistic routes. The analysis of goods traffic promotion through the North-South corridor shows its serious competitive advantages in comparison with the Southern sea route in terms of transportation distance, time, and cost of delivery. The study analyzes the problems of the international transport corridor. These include technological, documentary, and infrastructural unresolved problems. The multivariant logistic route in the central part of the North-South corridor poses the problem of choosing the optimal route. The article analyzes the existing methods of route choice based on equal advantageous transportation distance and full cost for solving this task. The limitation of the listed methods leads to the search for a cost minimization function for a logistics route.

Тибетская проблема в китайско-американских отношениях 2009–2012 годов

The paper analyses the Sino-American contacts of 2009–2012 on the Tibet issue, which had occupied an important place in China–US relations since the 1980s. With Barack Obama moving into the White House, the US adopted a softer policy aimed at strengthening the relations with China. However, the Tibet issue remained a source of conflict and disagreement between Beijing and Washington. US leaders believed that China was pursuing a tough policy towards the peoples of Tibet and suggested some ways to settle the issue. Beijing, in its turn, saw this as an interference in China’s internal affairs. Having examined the works of Russian and foreign researchers, the author comes to the conclusion that for the United States the issue of human rights in Tibet was not of strategic importance, but, primarily, an opportunity to discredit China on the international arena, as any decision taken by the country would be deemed insufficient. Understanding this, Beijing reacted quite sharply to Washington’s comments, closing the door to further discussion. The paper’s chronological framework spans from the beginning of Barack Obama’s (2009) to the end of Hu Jintao’s (2012) term in office. The author turns to various sources in English and Chinese, which gives the article a significant element of novelty.

Polityka Niemiec wobec Polski – jej cele i skutki

Germany is Poland’s neighbor and at least formally its ally within NATO and a partner in the European Union. In spite of the cautious statements of politicians and well-balanced press articles in Poland, the time has come to make the matter clear: Polish-German relations are very bad. The wine is completely on the side of Germany. For years, Germany has been pursuing a policy that strikes Polish economic interests, Polish sovereignty and territorial integrity. They are contemptuous about Poles, they also conduct a historical policy aimed at imposing Poland on German crimes of World War II. We need a tough policy towards the European Union and Germany, especially against the campaign against Poland regarding the supposed violation of the rule of law in our country. However, one should reckon with various political and diplomatic actions and attempts at financial blackmail (the threat of cutting EU subsidies). On the other hand, we must realize that both Germany and other European countries, after experience with the United Kingdom and its exit from the European Union (Brexit) do not want to leave the Union by subsequent states, because it will mean its decay. That is why their policy towards Poland, despite its ruthlessness and brutality, will not exceed a certain level, over which there will no longer be any dialogue, only the necessity to break the Union’s bonds by the Republic. The strategy of determination and assertiveness in relations with Germany and with the structures of the Union will therefore bring Poland as a result of success. It must be remembered that Germany will not risk losing an important economic partner in the East, and this fact will also affect the moderation of their policy towards Poland. The government of our country must free itself from the influence of long-term policy implemented by the offices of Donald Tusk and Ewa Kopacz. It was a policy of subservience to the western neighbor, succumbing to his suggestions and giving way in matters in which it was necessary to maintain an unchanged iron consistency. As a result, the Germans began to disrespect us more and more clearly and treat us as a vassal state. It is therefore important to go to hard policy, because only such activities make impressions on the leadership groups in Brussels and in Berlin.

Expropriation and consequence: Peru-United States relations (1963–1975)

This article studies the nature of Peru-United States relations during the period 1963–1975 through an analysis of the dispute over the potential expropriation of the US-owned International Petroleum Company. The United States government implemented a tough policy towards the first government of Fernando Belaúnde – who sough a “special” relation with the Unites States –characterized by the threat of economic sanctions if the Peruvian government did not solve the issue in favor of the company. The threat of the Hickenlooper Amendment, which sought to penalize countries that expropriated American owned businesses, was a clear sign of this. Once the company was expropriated by the Revolutionary Government of the Armed Forces in 1968 the American government was ironically forced to follow a more flexible approach, as the new military regime sought to diversify its bilateral relations in the bipolar context of the Cold War. The American policy of supporting the IPC had negative long-term effects fo American interests in the region, as it accelerated the overthrown of Belaúnde and ushered in the arrival of a military junta which sought a more independent foreign policy. A country that had been solid American ally camp since the end of World War II had become a nonaligned nation.

How effective are Governor's party affiliated campaign promises on crime? Evidence from U.S. states

Criminal justice policies are contested issues during gubernatorial campaigns, with Republicans advocating for tough policies, and Democrats for reforms. The controversy is exacerbated by lack of research on what actually works. Policies and rhetoric used by candidates could impact voter's decision and real world outcomes. In this paper, I use Regression Discontinuity Design framework to investigate the causal impact of party affiliation on crime, with affiliation serving as a proxy for policies. Although past research has shown some success of party affiliated campaign promises (education spending, labor market, etc.), I fail to find evidence of impact on crime rates in the short run. For potential mechanism, I find that governors do not impact criminal justice policy metrics. Thus, given the controversial nature of crime, it is difficult to deliver drastic changes, as such the effectiveness of crime related campaign promises in the short run is unreliable.

Государственная цензура Интернета в оценках российской молодежи: итоги социологического исследования

The central issue of the paper is the peculiarities of the attitude of Russian youth to the tough policy of the state aimed at limiting the dissemination of information on the Internet. The author notes the contradiction between the progressive tightening of the policy of the Russian state in the field of moderation of the Internet and the lack of a clear understanding of the specifics of the reaction that such a tightening causes in society. An analysis of the current scientific literature leads the author to the conclusion that the attitude of young people to the practices of introducing state censorship will largely affect the effectiveness of the functioning of such censorship. The negative attitude of young people towards state censorship of the Internet will hinder its functioning, while agreement with the need for its introduction, on the contrary, may become a favorable prerequisite for its development. Using the data of his own sociological research conducted among the youth of Ekaterinburg (N=504), the author analyses the actual moods that arise among the youth in connection with the prospect of introducing state censorship of the Internet. The key conclusion of the paper is that the Russian youth has a relatively positive attitude towards the introduction of state censorship of the Internet, which in many respects favors the real introduction of such censorship into the life of society. Although young people disagree and argue about the specific types of information that should be prohibited by the state censorship, the initial need for such a prohibition is more likely to be supported.

The effect of COVID-19 on financial inclusion in the Kigezi and Lango subregions in Uganda

ABSTRACT The year 2020 opened with tough policy measures to control the rapid spread of COVID-19. We sampled, explored, and analyzed the most recent studies that linked COVID-19 to business and finance. We identified two mitigations, which had strong effects on financial inclusion but had been neglected: lockdown and social distancing. We used lockdown and social distancing to conceptualize COVID-19, and developed two theoretical nexuses among COVID-19 and financial inclusion, and COVID-19 and government policy interventions. We explored each of the nexuses. First, we described the extent of lockdown and social distancing, financial inclusion, and government policy interventions. Second, we compared these nexuses in both the Lango and Kigezi subregions, and explained the significance of the interventions. Third, we used beta coefficients to quantify the effects of COVID-19 on financial inclusion. We provide a solid foundation for compulsive online banking in developing countries.

ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЕ РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЕ ИННОВАЦИОННОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНА В КОНТЕКСТЕ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ ПРИНЦИПОВ «ЗЕЛЕНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ»

Annotation. Innovative economic development requires the use of high-tech technologies and qualitatively new approaches to the conditions for ensuring sustainable economic development. The transformation of the economy actualizes the issues of developing conceptual aspects of the development of regions and the state as a whole, the formation of mechanisms of state regulation and support. The study of trends in the development of the world economy and factors affecting the sustainability of economic development contributes to the development of effective mechanisms that promote economic growth and development. The construction of a national innovation system requires an integrated approach that takes into account the achievements of the world economy in the development of knowledge-intensive and innovative economic sectors, ensuring the implementation of the principles of a «green economy» focused on the careful use of resources and reasonable consumption. The innovative vector of development of the national economy is impossible without a comprehensive mechanism of support of public authorities. The innovative orientation of the economy implies a high capital intensity, which leads to the emergence of financial deficits, the disclosure of which is impossible without effective regulators. Economic sanctions, the withdrawal of foreign capital from the country exacerbate the current problems of limited resources for technological and industrial breakthroughs, but at the same time create opportunities to fill the vacated niches with domestic high-tech and innovative projects that contribute to sectoral renewal and the national economy reaching a new level. Innovative developments are designed to provide priority sectors of the economy with sustainable competitive advantages both in the domestic market and in world markets. The need for pharmaceutical, technological and energy innovations is growing. The state is focused on supporting fundamental, high–tech research – space, IT technologies, bioengineering, etc. However, innovative activity is necessary in all sectors of the domestic economy, which is acutely felt during the period of tough sanctions policy against Russia. The article raises the issues of state stimulation of innovation activity of economic entities as factors contributing to the sustainable economic development of regions. The analysis of the factors contributing to the growth of innovation is carried out, the need for state influence on the innovation processes of the region is substantiated.

Presidential elections-2022 in the Republic of Korea

The presidential race of 2022 was fought on the background of the uneasy legacy of President Moon Jae-in between the candidate of the ruling Democratic Party Lee Jae-myong and the representative of the conservatives, former Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol. Each of the camps was represented by a person who was not a typical representative of his camp and has a difficult relationship with the &amp;quot;core of the party&amp;quot;. Lee is a representative of the inner-party opposition, and not Moon&amp;apos;s successor. Yoon has found himself in the conservative camp after the conflict with the Blue House due to the logic of factional struggle and the absence of a third force in the politics of the Republic of Korea. Lee was called the Korean Bernie Sanders because of the promise of unconditional basic income and other social programs, and in foreign policy he promised to continue inter-Korean rapprochement. Yun had to reflect conservative discourse and advocated a tougher policy towards the DPRK, an alliance with the United States and the restoration of relations with Japan. The elections turned out to be a record in terms of populist promises and black PR against candidates and their families. This led to a specific situation when, on the eve of the elections, both candidates had a high anti-rating and the final gap between them was less than one percent. In such a situation, the victorious Yoon Seok-yeol will have to face the split of society, the Democrats controlling the parliament, and the need to strengthen the unity of the party in the difficult international situation and internal problems.

The spillover effect of trade policy along the value Chain: Evidence from China's rare earth‐related sectors

AbstractThis study examines the heterogeneous spillover effects of an export control policy from an upstream sector to its related downstream sectors. In 2010, China implemented tough policies on rare earth production and export that created a significant price premium for rare earth in foreign markets, thus offering downstream sectors in China cost advantages over their foreign competitors. This study exploits China's policy as an exogenous shock and performs a detailed examination of Chinese customs data. The results show that the export control policy has increased the export price of rare earth downstream products from China, whereas the effects on export quantity and value have been heterogeneous across sectors: they are significant for sectors in which the rare earth cost share is high, and the elasticity of substitution is low.

Do border policies reduce flows of Venezuelan migrants?

ABSTRACT Conventional wisdom suggests that migration policy has a significant, unidirectional effect on migration, namely, that tough policies slash inflows, while the reverse is true for permissive policies. We do not find evidence for this in the current Venezuelan migration crisis. In reality, policies shift following large inflows as much as large inflows follow policy shifts. This finding brings into question the efficacy of unilateral and uncoordinated border policies.

UK-Turkey Relationship in Light of Brexit

The 2016 UK EU membership referendum has been a catalyst for a stronger political dialogue between Turkey and Britain. The countries have taken a firm line of strategic partnership which meets the interests of both parties to strengthen their international positions. In late December 2020, the parties managed to forge a trade agreement envisaging most of the previously established rules. At the same time, a full-scale trade agreement is hampered by Ankara’s obligations within the EU Customs Union and Preferential agreements. Turkey occupies an important place in the new foreign strategy of the UK. London considers Ankara, which is pursuing an increasingly tough policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Black Sea region, as a situational ally in strengthening its international positions weakened by Brexit. The author notes that the declared strategic partnership in the political sphere has a number of limitations associated with the conflict potential of relations between Turkey and the European Union, as well as the growing importance of the values factor in British foreign policy. The UK actually needs to find a balance between other international players in the Brussels-London-Ankara triangle for its own geopolitical and economic goals. The nature of British-Turkish relations is of considerable interest to Russia.

US – EU: new priorities in the transatlantic relations

The European Union is an important player in the U.S. policies aimed at maintaining liberal world order. The US-EU interaction has been shaped by a number of key variables, including international environment, specific goals of the U.S. administrations, institutional maturing of the EU, and a complex interplay of American and European diverging and overlapping interests. President D. Trump’s tenure was the most strained period in the US-EU relations, with an erosion of mutual trust and a ghost of trade war looming large. The Biden administration has reversed the U.S. policy towards the European Union. The US-EU summit held last June signified a return of normality in the relations of the transatlantic partners. Washington and Brussels outlined a broad agenda that embraces security, trade and economic issues, coordination in international affairs (concerning, in particular, Russia, China, and Iran), cooperation in decarbonizing of the world economy and promotion of a climate-friendly environment. A broad web of links between the United States and Europe facilitates their joining efforts in addressing global and regional challenges. Although, the US and the EU reached a series of compromises to mitigate their most acrimonious disagreements (Boeing–Airbus subsidies dispute is a vivid example in this regard), there are still unsettled major issues like a comprehensive free trade treaty unsuccessfully negotiated since the Obama presidency. The “Chinese factor” may turn out to be the most divisive one in the transatlantic relations, since the U.S. tough policy towards Beijing makes the EU countries to take hard decisions they prefer to avoid. While it is premature to predict precise implications of the Biden administration’s policy, one can reasonably expect the EU to become a more helpful partner to Washington in diplomatic and economic affairs.

Some aspects of personal identity on the materials of french media

The paper studies the concept of identity verification of the personality in the state system from the perspective of finding additional socially marked meanings/connotations of the word “identity/ identité”. It is also necessary to consider the contexts affecting the variety of meanings that this concept embraces.The study is based on the contexts derived from the French mass media. While describing the concept of identity verification, we use the term “diagnostic markers” to classify the meanings of the lexeme “identity/identité”. These markers can be represented by the linguistic units of different levels, which are used to detect the meaning of identity in a particular information context. The study of the concept helped to detect the associative field of “identity/ identité” from the perspective of personality verification in the state system. Thus, the nuclear meaning is the obligation for a French citizen to carry la carte d’identité/an identity card, while the peripheral meanings include the following: true and false optionality for providing the proof of identity; the contrast between real and official identities; identity as a proof (official document) of one’s nationality; lack of identity in the meaning of absence of legal proof of identity; identity in the context of restrictions imposed as a result of tough immigration policies. The social markers used to identify the personality within the state system were also analyzed from the perspective of ascribed and achieved identity. The first type refers to the situation of actually living in the chosen country, while the second type occurs when a person chooses a country for future residence.