ПАКИСТАН — ИНДИЯ: РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЕ ПРОТИВОСТОЯНИЕ (2018 – 2023 гг.)

Abstract

The author of the article went beyond the analysis of the traditional bilateral relations between Pakistan and India, focusing on the confrontation of these countries at the regional and international levels. The struggle for influence in the region, for sales markets, for profitable multibillion-dollar commercial projects, for increasing labor quotas, in particular with the Gulf countries, is intensifying. Not being an Islamic state, India is strengthening its position in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. The withdrawal of US/NATO troops from Kabul in August 2021 also had an impact on the Afghan vector of the countries’ foreign policy. The Anti-Taliban case (2001–2021) of the Indian Foreign Ministry has failed. But the danger of losing the Afghan, and as a result, the likely logistical challenges of cooperation with the Central Asian states, convinced New Delhi to reconsider the approaches the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan welcomed it’ return to power. However, his tough policy towards the terrorist organization the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was the challenge for Pakistani-Afghan relations, which India took advantage of. The government of Prime minister Narendra Modi, since coming to power in 2014, characterizes Pakistan as a terrorist state; and refuses bilateral negotiations and cooperation in «small» regional organizations, in particular with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) starting from 2016. It paralyzed the activity of this organization. But the Pakistani economy is facing the deepest economic crisis, that is why is interested in the increasing the volume of export of domestic products in region, and an influx of foreign currency, primarily to safe foreign exchange reserves. Logistically, Pakistan is ‘cut off ’ by the territory of India from the states of South East Asia. Continuing the theme of the ‘terrorist state’, New Delhi (Pakistan has been in the ‘grey’ list in 2018) insisted on the transfer of Islamabad to the ‘black list’ of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing (FATF). The result of the subsequent sanctions was, first of all, the downgrading of the country’s investment rate, which hurt the country’s business. New Delhi did not abandon its position even on the day the sanctions were lifted from Pakistan in September 2022. It is difficult to admit, but India’s tendencies towards political isolation and measures indirectly aimed at curbing Pakistan’s trade and economic ties in the region are evident.