Total Uncertainty Research Articles

Beam Position Projection Algorithms in Proton Pencil Beam Scanning.

Beam position uncertainties along the beam trajectory arise from the accelerator, beamline, and scanning magnets (SMs). They can be monitored in real time, e.g., through strip ionization chambers (ICs), and treatments can be paused if needed. Delivery is more reliable and accurate if the beam position is projected from monitored nozzle parameters to the isocenter, allowing for accurate online corrections to be performed. Beam position projection algorithms are also used in post-delivery log file analyses. In this paper, we investigate the four potential algorithms that can be applied to all pencil beam scanning (PBS) nozzles. For some combinations of nozzle configurations and algorithms, however, the projection uses beam properties determined offline (e.g., through beam tuning or technical commissioning). The best algorithm minimizes either the total uncertainty (i.e., offline and online) or the total offline uncertainty in the projection. Four beam position algorithms are analyzed (A1-A4). Two nozzle lengths are used as examples: a large nozzle (1.5 m length) and a small nozzle (0.4 m length). Three nozzle configurations are considered: IC after SM, IC before SM, and ICs on both sides. Default uncertainties are selected for ion chamber measurements, nozzle entrance beam position and angle, and scanning magnet angle. The results for other uncertainties can be determined by scaling these results or repeating the error propagation. We show the propagation of errors from two locations and the SM angle to the isocenter for all the algorithms. The best choice of algorithm depends on the nozzle length and is A1 and A3 for the large and small nozzles, respectively. If the total offline uncertainty is to be minimized (a better choice if the offline uncertainty is not stable), the best choice of algorithm changes to A1 for the small nozzle for some hardware configurations. Reducing the nozzle length can help to reduce the gantry size and make proton therapy more accessible. This work is important for designing smaller nozzles and, consequently, smaller gantries. This work is also important for log file analyses.

PENGARUH INTERAKSI TQM, SISTEM PENGHARGAAN, DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN LINGKUNGAN TERHADAP KINERJA MANAJERIAL PADA BBWS SUMATERA VIII PALEMBANG

Success in a company is closely related to the human resources (HR) within it. Therefore, the organization must support all elements of its human resources well, in order to maximize performance by observing total quality management, reward systems, and environmental uncertainty on managerial performance at the Palembang VIII Sumatra River Region Center. This research uses primary data with a Likert scale. The research method used is a quantitative approach with a questionnaire as a data collection method. This research uses a purposive sampling technique. The sample in this study was at the managerial level, namely commitment making officials (PPK) and financial managers, totaling 54 people. Meanwhile, the data analysis method uses SEM-PLS ver. 04.The results of this research indicate that total quality management has a significant positive effect on managerial performance. Furthermore, the reward system has a significant positive effect on managerial performance. Finally, environmental uncertainty has a significant positive effect on managerial performance.

Energy dependence of GafChromic LD-V1 film dose response to X-ray photons in the 60 to 180 kV range

Abstract Introduction: Radiochromic film (RCF) is suitable for use as a dosimeter owing to its inherently superior spatial resolution and near-water equivalence. A new model of RCF recommended for measuring imaging dose in the kV nominal energy range was recently introduced onto the market. In this study, we investigate the dependence on the beam quality of GafChromic LD-V1 film’s radiation dose response. Material and methods: Pieces of LD-V1 film were irradiated to air kerma ranging from 0 to 570 mGy in X-ray photons with beam qualities of 60 kV (HVL = 1.32 mm Al), 100 kV (HVL = 2.83 mm Al), 120 kV (HVL = 5.11 mm Al), 150 kV (HVL = 6.23 mm Al), and 180 kV (HVL = 0.54 mm Cu). The net reflectance from each film was obtained from a color flatbed scanner. For each beam quality, an analytical power function was fitted to the net reflectance - air kerma relationship and tested for differences. Results: We have found that for the beam qualities investigated, the response of the Gafchromic LD-V1 film was not significantly dependent on energy, and a single calibration curve could be used. The total relative uncertainty and absolute error reached maxima of 18% and 80%, respectively for air kerma values less than 50 mGy, and remained below 10% for air kerma in the range 50 mGy to 570 mGy. Conclusions: The results of our investigation revealed that the response of Gafchromic LD-V1 film is not significantly dependent on beam quality. A minimum air kerma irradiation of 50 mGy is recommended to minimise uncertainty.

Prediction of bubble departing diameter in pool boiling of mixtures by ANN using modified ReLU

In this research, bubble departure diameter in pool boiling have been measured in aqueous amine and ethylene glycol solutions for various concentrations. The experimental data have been compared with major existing predictive correlations. It is shown that the effect and identity of the independent variables on bubble diameter proposed in the previous studies are inconsistent. The predictions of different correlations have on average a deviation of about 40% from the experimental data. This is mainly due to the complicated interactions between bubbles on the heterogeneous boiling medium, which provides a complex condition. This complexity limits any mathematical modelling of the forces acting on the developing bubbles. Particularly in liquid solutions, where mass transfer by back diffusion through micro-sub-layers adds further complexity. In this work, the classical artificial neural network, ANN, with rectified linear unit, ReLU, activating function, AF, has been modified. This modification is based on adding a numerical matrix to each layer to adjust the slope of AF for each neuron independently. The addition of this parameter, together with the adjustment of the bias matrix, makes the activation function more flexible than the classical ReLU. To find the tuning parameters, a genetic algorithm was implemented instead of the back-propagation technique. It is shown that the predictions of the trained ANN with modified ReLU AF agree within an absolute average error of 10%, which is equal to the total uncertainty of the measurements. Prediction of bubble departing diameter in boiling phenomena is a key parameter for accurate design, operation and optimisation in many industrial systems.

Full characterization and calibration of a transfer standard monitor for atmospheric radon measurements

Abstract. In this work, a full characterization of the new user-friendly version of the Atmospheric Radon MONitor (ARMON), used to measure very low activity concentrations of the radioactive radon gas in the outdoor atmosphere, is carried out. The ARMON is based on the electrostatic collection of 218Po+ particles on a semiconductor detector surface. A main advantage of this instrument is that it offers high-resolution alpha-energy spectra, which will allow us to separate radon progeny (210Po, 218Po, and 214Po). The monitor feature may also allow measurements of thoron (220Rn) by collection of 216Po+, although the instrument is not calibrated for this gas. In the paper, the physical principle; the hardware configuration; and the software development of the automatic and remotely controlled ARMON, conceived and constructed within the MAR2EA and the traceRadon projects, are described. The monitor efficiency and its linearity over a wide span of radon concentration activities have been evaluated and tested here using theoretical and experimental approaches. Finally, a complete budget analysis of the total uncertainty of the monitor was also achieved. Results from the application of a simplified theoretical approach show a detection efficiency for 218Po+ of about 0.0075 (Bq m−3)−1 s−1. The experimental approach, consisting of exposing the ARMON at controlled radon concentrations between a few hundreds to a few thousands of becquerels per cubic metre (Bq m−3), gives a detection efficiency for 218Po+ of 0.0057 ± 0.0002 (Bq m−3) s−1. This last value and its independence from the radon levels were also confirmed thanks to a new calibration method which allows us, using low-emanation sources, to obtain controlled radon levels of a few tens of becquerels per cubic metre (Bq m−3). The total uncertainty of the ARMON detection efficiency obtained for hourly radon concentrations above 5 Bq m−3 was lower than 10 % (k= 1). The characteristic limits of the ARMON – being those dependent on the presence of thoron in the sampled air – were also calculated. A detection limit of 0.132 Bq m−3 was estimated in the absence of thoron. At a typical thoron concentration at atmospheric sites of 0.017 min−1, the detection limit was calculated to be 0.3 Bq m−3, but this can be reduced if using a delay volume, obtaining a decision threshold of 0.0045 Bq m−3. Current results may allow us to confirm that the ARMON is suitable to measure low-level radon activity concentrations (1–100 Bq m−3) and to be used as a transfer standard to calibrate secondary atmospheric radon monitors.

Phonon-mediated quantum efficiency measurement in semiconductors

Accurate quantum efficiency measurement not only provides crucial information for the photovoltaic cell industry but also supports experiments aimed at directly detecting dark matter and elastic neutrino interactions. The dark matter direct searches paradigm has recently expanded to include particles with masses below 1,MeV/c2, where the expected signal in an electron–recoil interaction is approximately in the eV range, just above the energy gap for silicon and germanium. A robust calibration method for ionization signals in this lower energy region is essential. This paper presents a method for measuring quantum efficiency and yield (q/E) in semiconductors using phonon-mediated calorimetry. The Neganov–Trofimov–Luke phonon amplification method in low-temperature semiconductor crystals has been employed to indirectly measure ionization down to single-electron accuracy. Specifically, at zero bias, the phonon readout directly quantifies the total energy deposited within the detector, independent of the ionization yield. This eliminates a significant source of systematic uncertainty in quantum efficiency estimates associated with total energy uncertainty. The paper includes results from an updated ionization efficiency measurement in a germanium detector.

A two-capillary viscometer for temperatures up to 473 K and pressures up to 100 MPa—operation and verification at low pressure

In this paper, we described the design and construction of a new two-capillary viscometer with several novel technical solutions for viscosity and density measurements. Our design, which is based on the low-pressure principle, featured numerous improvements in hardware and procedure that allowed the greatly extended range of pressure. The new design adopted a (2 × 2) capillary configuration, utilizing different combinations of four capillaries to enable viscosity measurements with a wide range of flow rates, temperatures, and pressures. The design temperature range is 213 K–473 K, and the pressure range is up to 100 MPa. The viscometer was specifically designed for measuring the viscosity of pure CO2 and CO2-rich mixtures, addressing the scarcity of data in conditions relevant to carbon capture, transport, and storage. Our facility is capable of viscosity measurements in different thermodynamic states; gaseous, liquid, supercritical, and critical regions. A commercial densimeter is integrated to measure density under the same temperatures and pressures. We aimed for a total uncertainty target of better than 0.03%. The performance of the viscometer was validated by measurements with pure CO2 at 298.15 K and zero density. We observed a deviation of less than 0.03% between the reference viscosity of CO2 of this work and accurately calculated data using ab initio quantum mechanics with a standard uncertainty of 0.2%. Our primary focus in this paper was to provide a detailed description of the design and construction of the apparatus, emphasizing improvements and introducing new solutions to other research groups in constructing similar instruments suitable for low- and high-pressure viscosity measurements with high accuracy.

Measurement of vector boson production cross sections and their ratios using pp collisions at [formula omitted] TeV with the ATLAS detector

Fiducial and total W± and Z boson cross sections, their ratios and the ratio of top-antitop-quark pair and W-boson fiducial cross sections are measured in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s=13.6TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 29 fb−1 of data collected in 2022 by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The measured fiducial cross-section values for W+→ℓ+ν, W−→ℓ−ν¯, and Z→ℓ+ℓ− (ℓ=e or μ) boson productions are 4250±150pb, 3310±120pb, and 744±20pb, respectively, where the uncertainty is the total uncertainty, including that arising from the luminosity of about 2.2%. The measurements are in agreement with Standard-Model predictions calculated at next-to-next-to-leading-order in αs, next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy and next-to-leading-order electroweak accuracy.

An overlooked source of uncertainty in the mass of the Milky Way

ABSTRACT In the conventional approach to decomposing a rotation curve into a set of contributions from mass model components, the measurements of the rotation curve at different radii are taken to be independent. It is clear, however, that radial correlations are present in such data, for instance (but not only) because the orbital speed depends on the mass distribution at all (or, minimally, inner) radii. We adopt a very simple parametric form for a covariance matrix and constrain its parameters using Gaussian process regression. Applied to the rotation curve of the Milky Way, this suggests the presence of correlations between neighbouring rotation curve points with amplitudes of $\lt 10\, \mathrm{km}\, \mathrm{s}^{-1}$ over length scales of 1.5–$2.5\, \mathrm{kpc}$ regardless of the assumed dark halo component. We show that accounting for such covariance can result in a ∼50 per cent lower total mass estimate for the Milky Way than when it is neglected, and that the uncertainty in model parameters increases such that it seems more representative of the uncertainty in the rotation curve measurement. The statistical uncertainty associated with the covariance is comparable to or exceeds the total systematic uncertainty budget. Our findings motivate including more detailed treatment of rotation curve covariance in future analyses.

Measurement of the neutron total cross section of 9Be at the Back-n white neutron source of CSNS* *Supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan (2016YFA0401603), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11675155, 11790321) and Foundation of President of China Academy of Engineering Physics (YZJJLX2016003)

The neutron total cross section data of 9Be are essential in the nuclear structure model research of light nuclei and nuclear power installations. The neutron total cross section of 9Be in the 0.3 eV−120 MeV energy region has been measured using time-of-flight and transmission methods with the Neutron Total Cross Sectional Spectrometer (NTOX) based on the multi-cell fast fission chamber at the China Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS)-Back-n white neutron source (Back-n). The fission count-neutron energy distributions of 235U and 238U without samples and with Be samples with three thicknesses were measured in the double-bunch operation mode for a beam power of 100 kW. The Bayesian method was used to eliminate the influence of the double-bunch problem on neutron measurement in the energy region above 10 keV. The neutron total cross section of 9Be results was consistent with ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation library data in the 0.3 eV−20 MeV energy region. In the energy ranges of 0.3 eV to 10 keV and 0.01 to 20 MeV, the deviations between our results and the evaluation results of ENDF/B-VIII.0 were within 2.5% and 15%, respectively. In the resonance energy region, the measured resonance energies in our experiment were 0.63, 0.82, and 2.8 MeV, respectively. The results showed that the total cross section uncertainties of three Be samples were within 2.2% in the energy region below 1 MeV. The total cross section uncertainty of 30 mm Be from 235U was the smallest and less than 5% in the energy region of 0.3 eV−120 MeV. The results of this experiment can provide technical support for further data analysis and related nuclear data evaluation.

A survey of methane point source emissions from coal mines in Shanxi province of China using AHSI on board Gaofen-5B

Abstract. Satellite-based detection of methane (CH4) point sources is crucial in identifying and mitigating anthropogenic emissions of CH4, a potent greenhouse gas. Previous studies have indicated the presence of CH4 point source emissions from coal mines in Shanxi, China, which is an important source region with large CH4 emissions, but a comprehensive survey has remained elusive. This study aims to conduct a survey of CH4 point sources over Shanxi's coal mines based on observations of the Advanced Hyperspectral Imager (AHSI) on board the Gaofen-5B satellite (GF-5B/AHSI) between 2021 and 2023. The spectral shift in centre wavelength and change in full width at half-maximum (FWHM) from the nominal design values are estimated for all spectral channels, which are used as inputs for retrieving the enhancement of the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CH4 (ΔXCH4) using a matched-filter-based algorithm. Our results show that the spectral calibration on GF-5B/AHSI reduced estimation biases of the emission flux rate by up to 5.0 %. We applied the flood-fill algorithm to automatically extract emission plumes from ΔXCH4 maps. We adopted the integrated mass enhancement (IME) model to estimate the emission flux rate values from each CH4 point source. Consequently, we detected CH4 point sources in 32 coal mines with 93 plume events in Shanxi province. The estimated emission flux rate ranges from 761.78 ± 185.00 to 12 729.12 ± 4658.13 kg h−1. Our results show that wind speed is the dominant source of uncertainty contributing about 84.84 % to the total uncertainty in emission flux rate estimation. Interestingly, we found a number of false positive detections due to solar panels that are widely spread in Shanxi. This study also evaluates the accuracy of wind fields in ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis by comparing them with a ground-based meteorological station. We found a large discrepancy, especially in wind direction, suggesting that incorporating local meteorological measurements into the study CH4 point source are important to achieve high accuracy. The study demonstrates that GF-5B/AHSI possesses capabilities for monitoring large CH4 point sources over complex surface characteristics in Shanxi.

DEUCE v1.0: a neural network for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties

Abstract. Precipitation nowcasting (forecasting locally for 0–6 h) serves both public security and industries, facilitating the mitigation of losses incurred due to, e.g., flash floods and is usually done by predicting weather radar echoes, which provide better performance than numerical weather prediction (NWP) at that scale. Probabilistic nowcasts are especially useful as they provide a desirable framework for operational decision-making. Many extrapolation-based statistical nowcasting methods exist, but they all suffer from a limited ability to capture the nonlinear growth and decay of precipitation, leading to a recent paradigm shift towards deep-learning methods which are more capable of representing these patterns. Despite its potential advantages, the application of deep learning in probabilistic nowcasting has only recently started to be explored. Here we develop a novel probabilistic precipitation nowcasting method, based on Bayesian neural networks with variational inference and the U-Net architecture, named DEUCE. The method estimates the total predictive uncertainty in the precipitation by combining estimates of the epistemic (knowledge-related and reducible) and heteroscedastic aleatoric (data-dependent and irreducible) uncertainties, using them to produce an ensemble of development scenarios for the following 60 min. DEUCE is trained and verified using Finnish Meteorological Institute radar composites compared to established classical models. Our model is found to produce both skillful and reliable probabilistic nowcasts based on various evaluation criteria. It improves the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve scores 1 %–5 % over STEPS and LINDA-P baselines and comes close to the best-performer STEPS on a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) metric. The reliability of DEUCE is demonstrated with, e.g., having the lowest expected calibration error at 20 and 25 dBZ reflectivity thresholds and coming second at 35 dBZ. On the other hand, the deterministic performance of ensemble means is found to be worse than that of extrapolation and LINDA-D baselines. Last, the composition of the predictive uncertainty is analyzed and described, with the conclusion that aleatoric uncertainty is more significant and informative than epistemic uncertainty in the DEUCE model.

Estimating Galaxy Parameters with Self-organizing Maps and the Effect of Missing Data

The current and upcoming large data volume galaxy surveys require the use of machine-learning techniques to maximize their scientific return. This study explores the use of Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) to estimate galaxy parameters with a focus on handling cases of missing data and providing realistic probability distribution functions for the parameters. We train an SOM with a simulated mass-limited lightcone assuming a ugrizY JHK s +IRAC data set, mimicking the Hyper Suprime-Cam Deep joint data set. For parameter estimation, we derive SOM likelihood surfaces considering photometric errors to derive total (statistical and systematic) uncertainties. We explore the effects of missing data, including which bands are particularly critical to the accuracy of the derived parameters. We demonstrate that the parameter recovery is significantly better when the missing bands are “filled in” rather than if they are completely omitted. We propose a practical method for such recovery of missing data.

Experimental Study of the Reaction of OH Radicals with Carbonyl Sulfide between 365 and 960 K: Kinetics and Products

Reaction OH + OCS ® products (1) has been studied in a discharge–flow reactor combined with modulated molecular beam mass spectrometry. The reaction rate constant has been determined under pseudo-first-order conditions through monitoring OH decays in a high excess of OCS: k1 = (2.35 ± 0.25) × 10−12 exp(−(2144 ± 56)/T) cm3 molecule−1 s−1 at T = 365–960 K (the uncertainties represent precision at the 2σ level, the total 2σ relative uncertainty including statistical and systematic errors on the rate constant being 20% at all temperatures). The rate constant of reaction (1) was found to be similar at a total helium pressure of 1, 2, and 8 torr at around 500 K. The SH radical was identified as the primary product of the reaction, and its yield was determined to be about 100% at T = 500 and 750 K. The kinetic and mechanistic data from the present study are compared to previous experimental and theoretical work.

Strategies for High-Accuracy Measurements of Stage Efficiency for a Cooled Turbine

Abstract Gas turbines are used in a broad range of aerospace and land-based applications from power generation to aviation, and their usage is projected to continue to grow. It is therefore critical to improve turbine efficiency thereby reducing fuel consumption and carbon emissions. Demonstration of new efficiency-increasing technologies requires efficiency measurements that are accurate and repeatable. The Steady Thermal Aero Research Turbine (START) Laboratory at the Pennsylvania State University uses a unique 360-deg traversing system for temperature and pressure probes with redundant torque measurements to quantify thermal efficiency for a single-stage cooled test turbine. Flows in the full annulus have been analyzed and compared with subsector traverse segments centered at different circumferential positions to determine the appropriate sector size. The results from this investigation indicate that the full 360-deg measurement is recommended to minimize variation in calculated stage efficiencies. This study also compares the circumferential variations in thermodynamic and mechanical efficiency definitions, finding that the thermodynamic efficiency calculation results in a higher accuracy for full exit plane measurements. A statistical analysis was then performed to determine the number of 360-deg traverse measurements required to achieve a precision uncertainty at most that of the bias uncertainty. This study establishes guidelines to streamline experimental procedures by limiting the necessary test count per day per operating condition to five measurements for at most four test days. Following these procedures establishes a bias of ɛb = 0.19 points, resulting in a total uncertainty of at most ɛt = 0.32 points.

Analysis of measurement uncertainty for verification/calibration of particulate matter measuring instruments using the gravimetric method

As demand for particulate matter (PM) monitoring increases for scientific and regulatory purposes, the need for an accurate calibration process for these instruments will also increase. This article focuses on studying the factors that cause measurement uncertainty during the calibration process with the calibration facility (ManDust) for reference gravimetric instruments. Measurement uncertainty in this article included type A and type B uncertainties. Type A uncertainty mostly included repeatability and reproducibility while volume uncertainty predominately contributed to type B uncertainty. To clearly examine how these factors contributed to the combined uncertainty, the calibration process was carried out at a high concentration range from 0.4 to 1.6 mg m−3. In general, the measurement uncertainty ranged from 1.95% to 6.65%. Further analysis showed that type A uncertainty contributed more to the total uncertainty than type B. In particular, uncertainty from volume calculation and measurement contributed over 80% of type B uncertainty. During the PM filter weighing process, the uncertainty during the conditioning process contributed the most to type B uncertainty. This article also conducted a sensitivity analysis and found that besides volume measurement, the filter weighing procedure was also sensitive to changes even though it only contributed less than 5% of type B uncertainty. Using high-quality devices and careful handling during these two procedures should be emphasized to reduce the uncertainty of the calibration process.

Impact of Intra‐Skeletal Calcite on the Preservation of Coral Geochemistry and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstruction

AbstractThe geochemistry of tropical coral skeletons is widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions. However, sub‐aerially exposed corals may be affected by diagenesis, altering the aragonite skeleton through partial dissolution, or infilling of secondary minerals like calcite. We analyzed the impact of intra‐skeletal calcite on the geochemistry (δ18O, Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, Li/Mg, Li/Ca, U/Ca, B/Ca, Ba/Ca, and Mn/Ca) of a sub‐aerially exposed Porites sp. coral. Each micro‐milled coral sample was split into two aliquots for geochemistry and X‐ray diffraction (XRD) analysis to quantify the direct impact of calcite on geochemistry. We modified the sample loading technique for XRD to detect low calcite levels (1%–2%; total uncertainty = 0.33%, 2σ) in small samples (∼7.5 mg). Calcite content ranged from 0% to 12.5%, with higher percentages coinciding with larger geochemical offsets. Sr/Ca, Li/Mg, Li/Ca, and δ18O‐derived sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies per 1% calcite were +0.43°C, +0.24°C, +0.11°C, and +0.008°C, respectively. A 3.6% calcite produces a Sr/Ca‐SST signal commensurate with local SST seasonality (∼1.5°C), which we propose as the cut‐off level for screening calcite diagenesis in paleo‐temperature reconstructions. Inclusion of intra‐skeletal calcite decreases B/Ca, Ba/Ca, and U/Ca values, and increases Mg/Ca values, and can therefore impact reconstructions of paleoclimate and the carbonate chemistry of the semi‐isolated calcifying fluid in corals. This study emphasizes the importance of quantifying fine‐scale calcite diagenesis to identify coral preservation levels and assure robust paleoclimate reconstructions.

Fixed-time trajectory tracking for autonomous surface vehicles via output feedback under various constraints

This paper proposes a novel fixed-time output feedback trajectory tracking control method suitable for autonomous surface vehicles (ASVs). Firstly, various complex uncertainty terms, such as unknown external disturbances, unmodeled errors, and actuator faults are considered in this paper. And these terms are uniformly converted into the total uncertainty terms through model transformation for convenience. Then, a fixed-time extended state observer (FTESO) with the newly expanded state is designed to observe and estimate the total uncertainty terms. Next, the saturation dynamic filter (SDF) is adopted to address the input saturation, and the saturation factors of SDF are incorporated into the trajectory error calculation to reduce the torque mutation caused by an excessive error in the control input. Finally, a fixed-time control law is proposed by taking into account the ASV system error and FTESO estimation state. Simulation experiments show that this method has excellent control performance, and this conclusion is validated through stability proof and case comparison.

Quantify uncertainty in historical simulation and future projection of surface wind speed over global land and ocean

Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of surface wind speed (SWS) has significant implications for its applications. Here, we examine the SWS changes from the 6th coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) model outputs, and analyzed the simulation uncertainties in CMIP6 both in the historical period and future projections. The results show that the both trend and interannual variability of SWS are underestimated in the CMIP6. The SWS over most of the Northern Hemisphere will reduce by 4%–6% under the high emission scenario in the last 21st Century, whereas it will increase by 6%–10% over South America and Southeastern Pacific. Over land, the majority of projection uncertainties is dominated by model uncertainty, followed by the internal variability and scenario uncertainty. Over ocean, the simulation uncertainty is greatly influenced by model uncertainty and internal variability, with the scenario uncertainty accounting for around 20% of total simulation uncertainty in the late 21st century.

A truncated primordial power spectrum and its impact on B-mode polarization

The absence of large-angle correlations in the temperature of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), confirmed by three independent satellite missions, creates significant tension with the standard model of cosmology. Previous work has shown, however, that a truncation, kmin, of the primordial power spectrum comprehensively resolves the anomaly and the missing power at ℓ≲5 (the low multipoles). Since this cutoff is consistent with the hypothesized delay of inflation well beyond the Planck time, we are strongly motivated to consider its possible impact on other observational signatures. In this Letter, we analyze and predict its influence on the most revealing probe awaiting measurement by upcoming missions—the B-mode polarization of the CMB, whose accurate determination should greatly impact the inflationary picture. We highlight the quantitative power of this discriminant by specifically considering the LiteBIRD mission, predicting the effect of kmin on both the angular power spectrum and the angular correlation function of the B-mode, for a range of tensor-to-scalar ratios, r. While its impact on the latter appears to be negligible, kmin should have a very pronounced effect on the former. We show that for r=0.036, kmin's impact on CℓBB at low ℓ's should be easily detectable by LiteBIRD, but will be largely hidden by the total uncertainty of the measurement if r≲0.02.