Quantify uncertainty in historical simulation and future projection of surface wind speed over global land and ocean

Abstract

Abstract Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of surface wind speed (SWS) has significant implications for its applications. Here, we examine the SWS changes from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model outputs, and analyzed the simulation uncertainties in CMIP6 both in the historical period and future projections. The results show that the both trend and interannual variability of SWS are underestimated in the CMIP6. The SWS over most of the Northern Hemisphere will reduce by 4-6% under the high emission scenario in the last 21st Century, whereas it will increase by 6-10% over South America and Southeastern Pacific. Over land, the majority of projection uncertainties is dominated by model uncertainty, followed by the internal variability and scenario uncertainty. Over ocean, the simulation uncertainty is greatly influenced by model uncertainty and internal variability, with the scenario uncertainty accounting for around 20% of total simulation uncertainty in the late 21st century.