Total Suitable Area Research Articles

How Climate Change Impacts the Distribution of Lithocarpus hancei (Fagaceae), a Dominant Tree in East Asian Montane Cloud Forests

Subtropical montane moist evergreen broadleaf forests (MMEBFs) have a unique environmental envelope harboring a high percentage of endemic biota. This ecosystem is highly vulnerable, and little is known about its possible response to future climate change. In this study, we used Lithocarpus hancei (Fagaceae), a dominant tree in East Asian subtropical MMEBFs, as a proxy to investigate MMEBF distribution dynamics and key distribution restriction factors. In total, 607 L. hancei occurrence points were obtained after being gathered and filtered. The random forest model was selected as the best model. Eight environmental variables were selected to simulate the potential suitable areas of L. hancei under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), present, and future (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) climate change scenarios, including four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Our results showed that precipitation of the warmest quarter, the precipitation of the driest month, the mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are the key factors affecting the spatial range of L. hancei with 11.2%, 10.9%, 8.1%, and 7.6% contributions, respectively. The current distribution of L. hancei is mainly within East and South China, with a scattered distribution in North Indo-China and the Southeast Himalayas. The highly suitable area only accounts for 9.7% of the total distribution area. The distribution area of the current suitability area is the smallest compared to that under LGM and future scenarios. In all the future climatic scenarios, the highly suitable areas of L. hancei would decrease or even disappear, whereas the medium- and low-suitability areas might increase with the centroid of the total suitable area northern. Its distribution in Central China, the Southern Himalayas, and Northern Indo-China will be lost in the future. Overall, our study predicted a prominent degradation of East Asian MMEBFs in the future. In situ and ex situ conservation on East Asian MMEBFs should be prioritized and enforced.

Suitability changes of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle, a medicine-food plants affected by climate warming using the optimized MaxEnt model.

Climatic variables are important conditions for plant growth, development and reproduction. Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle (Rutaceae: Citrus) is one of the traditional bulk Chinese medicinal materials in China with the effects of bacteriostasis, anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidation, anti-cancer cells, regulating the immun. Analyzing the impact of climate change on geographical distribution of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis can provide strong support for its production layout and agricultural zoning. In our paper, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to simulate the suitable areas of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis in China from the perspectives of bioclimate, soil, topographic factors and human activities, and the future climate scenarios generated by global climate models (GCMs) were selected to predict its suitable areas in 2050s and 2090s. Results showed that, 1) Under current climate condition, areas of the total, most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis in China were 177.36×104 km2, 22.27×104 km2, 51.96×104 km2 and 103.13×104 km2 respectively. The range of the most suitable habitat was the narrowest, which was located in the middle east of Sichuan, western Chongqing in the upstream of the Yangtze River Basin, southern Guizhou and western Guangxi in the upstream of the Pearl River Basin, central and southern Yunnan and Southeast Tibet in the Middle-Lower reaches of the Southwest River Basin and western Taiwan. 2) Under the future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area showed a significant increase trend in 2090s, and the change of most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats showed no obvious law. 3) Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroid of the most suitable habitat of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis would move to the northwest, southeast and southwest respectively.

Forecasting the circum-Mediterranean firs (Abies spp., Pinaceae) distribution: an assessment of a threatened conifers’ group facing climate change in the twenty-first century

This study examines 10 different taxa within the genus Abies identified in the circum-Mediterranean area: A. alba, A. borisii-regis, A. cephalonica, A. cilicica, A. nebrodensis, A. nordmanniana subsp. equi-trojani, A. nordmanniana subsp. nordmanniana, A. numidica, A. pinsapo var. marocana and A. pinsapo var. pinsapo. We assess the potential distribution of these species in the Mediterranean Basin, most of Central-Northern Europe and Asia Minor through analysis of 8 bioclimatic variables. First, the potential distribution (suitability area) was calculated with Biomod2 package for R using 10 algorithms. Models were ensembled for the present period and then projected into two climate change scenarios (an intermediate and the most extreme) within two time slices (2041–2060 and 2081–2100) and two Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The analysis showed an increase in total suitable area under both forecasted scenarios. Abies spp. appeared to be resilient against climate change, showing a latitudinal and longitudinal migration trend in response to the loss of current habitats. A proposal of assisted migration (managed relocation) is suggested as an interesting alternative to guarantee the preservation of the most endangered species by promoting the establishment of new populations outside of their historical distribution area.

Potentially suitable habitat prediction of Pinus massoniana Lamb. in China under climate change using Maxent model

BackgroundPinus massoniana is an important timber species with high ecological and economic value in southern China and a pioneer species for the reforestation of barren mountains. The structure and function of the existing Masson pine ecosystem have been seriously affected by worsening habitats under current climate change. Its suitable habitat is likely to change greatly in the near future.MethodsTo estimate the potential geographic distribution of P. massoniana and its response to climate change, the Maxent model was selected to simulate the potentially suitable habitat and corresponding changes in the distribution pattern of P. massoniana under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) with two periods (2050s and 2090s).ResultsUnder current climate conditions, the total suitable habitat area of P. massoniana was 2.08 × 106 km2, including 0.76 × 106 km2 of highly suitable habitat, concentrated mainly in Jiangxi and Zhejiang, central and southeastern Hunan, northern Fujian, central and western Chongqing, southern Anhui, central and surrounding areas of Guangdong, central and eastern Guangxi, and northern Taiwan. The areas of moderately suitable habitat and poorly suitable habitat were 0.87 × 106 km2 and 0.45 × 106 km2, respectively. Temperature and precipitation appear to be the most important predictors: precipitation of the driest month (14.7–215.6 mm), minimum temperature of the coldest month (−3.5–13.8°C), annual temperature range (8.1–32.9°C), and mean temperature of the warmest quarter (23.6–34.7°C). P. massoniana are predicted to expand their potential distribution under future climate change: by the end of this century, their total suitable habitat area increased 0.26 × 106 km2 (10.61%) and 0.45 × 106 km2 (17.05%) under the most moderate (SSP1-2.6) and severe (SSP5-8.5) warming scenarios, respectively, by mainly extending northward.ConclusionUnder the different future climate scenarios, the total suitable habitat area of P. massoniana increased by mainly extending northward. Overall, our study clarifies the potential habitat distribution of P. massoniana and provides a critical empirical reference for future P. massoniana conservation and planting practices.

Prediction of potential suitable areas forBroussonetia papyriferain China using the MaxEnt model and CIMP6 data

AbstractBroussonetia papyrifera is an important native tree species in China with strong adaptability, wide distribution and economic importance. Climate change is considered as the main threat to ecological processes and global biodiversity. Predicting the potential geographical distribution of B. papyrifera in future climate change scenarios will provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration in China. Principal component analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were conducted to select the environmental variables. The distribution and changes in the potential suitable area for B. papyrifera were predicted using the maximum entropy model and the CIMP6 dataset from 2041 to 2060. The current highly suitable areas for B. papyrifera were mainly located in Guangdong (5.60 × 104 km2), Guangxi (4.39 × 104 km2), Taiwan (2.54 × 104 km2) and Hainan (2.17 × 104 km2). The mean temperature of the coldest quarter (11.54–27.11 °C), precipitation of the driest quarter (51.48–818.40 mm) and precipitation of the wettest quarter (665.51–2302.60 mm) were the main factors limiting the suitable areas for B. papyrifera. The multi-modal average of the highly and the total suitable areas for B. papyrifera were 111.42 × 104 and 349.11 × 104 km2 in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while those in the SSP1-2.6 scenario were 87.50 × 104 and 328.29 × 104 km2, respectively. The gained suitable areas for B. papyrifera will expand to the western and northern China in the future scenarios. The multi-model averaging results showed that the potential available planting area was 212.66 × 104 and 229.32 × 104 km2 in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, when the suitable area within the farmland range was excluded.

Prediction of Changes to the Suitable Distribution Area of Fritillaria przewalskii Maxim. in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has given birth to many indigenous highland plants due to its special geographical location and sensitivity to climate change. Relevantly, the impact of climate change on species distribution has been a hot issue for research in biogeography. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, the spatial distribution of habitat suitability for Fritillaria przewalskii Maxim. (FPM) on the Tibetan Plateau was predicted and ranked by combining ecological data and information on its actual current geographical distribution. The potential distribution and trends of FPM on the Tibetan Plateau from 2021 to 2040, 2041 to 2060, 2061 to 2080 and 2081 to 2100 under four current and future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) were also predicted. The predictions were found to be highly accurate with AUC values of 0.9645 and 0.9345 for the training and test sets, respectively. A number of conclusions could be drawn from the results. Firstly, the main ecological factors limiting the growth distribution of FPM were the Vegetation types, NPP (net primary production), Soil types, Bio7 (temperature annual range), Pop (population), Slope, GDP, Aspect, Bio1 (annual mean temperature) and Elevation, with a cumulative contribution of 97.6%. Secondly, in the recent past period of 1970–2000, the total suitable distribution area of FPM accounted for 5.55% of the plateau’s total area, which was about 14.11 × 104 km2, concentrated in its eastern and central regions. Thirdly, compared to the previous period, the aforementioned distribution area will, for the period spanning 2021–2040, increase by 14.48%, 16.23%, 16.99%, and 21.53% in the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. This comes with an overall expansion trend, and the areas predicted to be affected are concentrated in the eastern and central-western parts of the Tibetan Plateau. The other three future periods 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 also show increases in these total areas to varying degrees. It is noteworthy that in the future periods 2061–2080 and 2081–2100, under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, the area of high suitable distribution decreases or even disappears. Lastly, under the four climate scenarios, the FPM suitable distribution area will shift towards the western part of the Tibetan Plateau.

Climate Change Influences the Population Density and Suitable Area of Hippotiscus dorsalis (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in China.

Hippotiscus dorsalis is the main pest of Phyllostachys edulis in South China. The relationship between climate change and outbreak of H. dorsalis, and the current and future distribution of H. dorsalis are unknown. This study aimed to confirm the effect of climate on population density and the attacked bamboo rate of H. dorsalis, using field survey data from 2005 to 2013 in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, and to reveal the potential distribution of H. dorsalis under current and future climate conditions using the MaxEnt model. The damage investigation and distribution forecast revealed the following: (1) The mean monthly temperature and maximum temperatures were main factors affecting the population density and the attacked bamboo rate in April in the Anji county of Zhejiang Province; they are all significantly and positively correlated. (2) High suitable area will significantly expand in Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under the future climate circumstances, and the total suitable area will present a decrease because of the precipitation restriction. The significant expansion of high suitable area in the Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under future climate circumstances means that the affected provinces will face even greater challenges. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the early forecasting and monitoring of pest outbreaks.

Integrated GIS and Fuzzy-AHP Framework for Suitability Analysis of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems: A Case in Southern Philippines

This study proposes an integrated framework for assessing the suitability of renewable energy systems, including wind, solar, hydro and hybrid wind–solar and hydro–solar, in the southern Philippines. The framework employs a combination of the Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to evaluate various socio-environmental and techno-economic factors. Several suitability indices were developed and used in the analysis. The criteria used in the analysis are based on a comprehensive literature review and input from experts in renewable energy and micro-grid technology. The results indicate that energy production is the most important factor and the total suitable areas for hybrid wind–solar and hybrid hydro–solar systems are 126.60 and 629.02 square kilometers, respectively. This research provides valuable insights for decision-makers and potential investors in the renewable energy sector in the study area.

Assessment of habitat suitability and connectivity across the potential distribution landscape of the sambar (Rusa unicolor) in Southwest China

Habitat suitability assessment is the basis for wildlife conservation management and habitat restoration. It is a useful tool to understand the quality of wildlife habitat and its potential spatial distribution. In order to reveal the habitat suitability and connectivity of sambar (Rusa unicolor) to promote species and biodiversity conservation, this study collected records of sambar (Rusa unicolor) from over 2,000 camera traps in the forests of Southwest China in the past 5 years to assess the overall situation of their habitat. The results of the species distribution model revealed that the suitable habitat area for sambar in the five major mountain ranges (Minshan, Qionglai, Daxiangling, Xiaoxiangling, and Liangshan) in Southwest China is 18,231 km2, accounting for 17.02% of the total area. The most suitable habitat of sambar is primarily distributed in Qionglai, as well as the intersection areas of Daxiangling, Xiaoxiangling, and Minshan. The temperature annual range, temperature seasonality, elevation, and distance to road were important factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitat for sambar. Analysis of landscape pattern shows that there were 273 habitat patches, with a maximum patch area of 9,983 km2, accounting for 54.8% of the total suitable habitat area. However, the segmentation index and separation index of each habitat patch were 0.99 and 106.58, respectively, indicating a relatively high habitat fragmentation in the study area. The results of habitat connectivity analysis showed that the Qionglai mountains have the largest suitable habitat area and the highest connectivity among habitat patches. However, habitat connectivity between the five mountains is very low, suggesting that gene flow among these mountain ranges is probably limited. We therefore recommend strengthening protection of sambar and their habitat, with special attention to the establishment of corridors between the different mountain populations.

Environmental factors influencing potential distribution of Schisandra sphenanthera and its accumulation of medicinal components.

Schisandrae Sphenantherae Fructus (SSF), the dry ripe fruit of Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils., is a traditional Chinese medicine with wide application potential. The quality of SSF indicated by the composition and contents of secondary metabolites is closely related to environmental factors, such as regional climate and soil conditions. The aims of this study were to predict the distribution patterns of potentially suitable areas for S. sphenanthera in China and pinpoint the major environmental factors influencing its accumulation of medicinal components. An optimized maximum entropy model was developed and applied under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7, and SSP5-RCP8.5). Results show that the total suitable areas for S. sphenanthera (179.58×104 km2) cover 18.71% of China's territory under the current climatic conditions (1981-2010). Poorly, moderately, and highly suitable areas are 119.00×104 km2, 49.61×104 km2, and 10.98×104 km2, respectively. The potentially suitable areas for S. sphenanthera are predicted to shrink and shift westward under the future climatic conditions (2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The areas of low climate impact are located in southern Shaanxi, northwestern Guizhou, southeastern Chongqing, and western Hubei Provinces (or Municipality), which exhibit stable and high suitability under different climate scenarios. The contents of volatile oils, lignans, and polysaccharides in SSF are correlated with various environmental factors. The accumulation of major secondary metabolites is primarily influenced by temperature variation, seasonal precipitation, and annual precipitation. This study depicts the potential distribution of S. sphenanthera in China and its spatial change in the future. Our findings decipher the influence of habitat environment on the geographical distribution and medicinal quality of S. sphenanthera, which could have great implications for natural resource conservation and artificial cultivation.

Assessing the Potential Distribution of a Vulnerable Tree under Climate Change: Perkinsiodendron macgregorii (Chun) P.W.Fritsch (Styracaceae)

Species adaptation and their response to the warming climate offer understanding into the present geographical distribution and may assist in improving predictions regarding the expected response to future climate change. As a result, assessing the distribution and potentially suitable habitats is key for conserving important vulnerable species such as Perkinsiodendron macgregorii, a rare tree species of high ornamental value distributed only in the subtropical forests of China. In this study, 101 sampling points distributed in China and 11 climatic variables were selected and imported into the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). We simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of potential habitats under past, current, and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios and found that the total suitable area for P. macgregorii is 1.67 × 106 km2 in recent times. This area is mainly located in seven provinces of southern China (Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi). The habitat centroid of P. macgregorii has been in Jiangxi province from the past to the 2070s. In both the lowest and the highest emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), the potential distribution of P. macgregorii will slightly increase in the 2070s, indicating that climate change may have little effect on its distribution. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio_18) is the most important climatic factor, with an optimum range of 487.3–799.8 mm. Our work could help make scientific strategies for in situ and ex situ conservation of P. macgregorii.

Current and future potential distribution of the invasive scale Ceroplastes rusci (L., 1758) (Hemiptera: Coccidae) under climate niche.

The fig wax scale, Ceroplastes rusci is an invasive pest that feeds on more than 94 genera from 52 families that is spread across 60 countries, causing negative impacts to agriculture and forestry. Understanding the potential distribution of invasive species under climate change is crucial for the management and monitoring purposes. Thus, we predicted the potential distribution areas of C. rusci using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) based on the occurrence data and environmental variables under current and future climatic scenarios. Our results showed that the temperature annual range (Bio 7) and mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio 10) attributed to a higher contribution to the current model of the distribution of C. rusci. The potential distribution maps illustrated the main concentrated areas of C. rusci which included South America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. In addition, potential range expansions or reductions were predicted under different future climate change scenarios, which showed that the total suitable areas of the fig wax scale presented an increasing trend until 2100. Our study provides significant data to understand the potential distribution of C. rusci around the world. It also serves as an early warning for the highly suitable habitat areas that even offers a platform to the currently non-infested regions or countries who are yet to develop monitoring strategies in response to the possible C. rusci outbreak. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

How to manage land use conflict between ecosystem and sustainable energy for low carbon transition?: Net present value analysis for ecosystem service and energy supply

Solar energy generation has become one of the most popular renewable energy sources for achieving global carbon neutrality. This transition to land-intensive energy generates inevitable land use conflicts with existing land cover, such as forest or agricultural land. South Korea is one of the countries currently experiencing conflicts in land use between ecosystems, food and energy. In addition, various land use problems occur, such as deforestation due to developments and an increase in idle agricultural land due to a decrease in the labor force. Thus, it is important to establish future land use policies that consider these issues. This study conducted a net present value (NPV) analysis for solving land use conflict by comparing monetary value according to different land use cases. Two land use scenarios were investigated: 1) land cover maintained (forest or agricultural land) and 2) land use change for solar energy generation. These two scenarios were compared in the target areas selected in this study to determine the criteria for the solar energy generation site. The economic values from Scenario 1were calculated primarily using ecosystem services assessment and market value, and those of Scenario 2 were calculated based on statistical data. The total suitable area for solar energy generation in Korea was 551,393 ha. As results, the NPV of forest ecosystem services was higher than that of solar energy generation in forest. In the case of idle agricultural land, agriculture caused a continuous deficit owing to carbon emissions, and accordingly, the carbon reduction effect through solar energy generation had a greater value than agricultural activities. This study attempted to resolve land use conflict by considering carbon neutrality through comparing economic values and introducing ecosystem services assessment and carbon credit price in the process of the analysis.

ResNet and MaxEnt modeling for quality assessment of Wolfiporia cocos based on FT-NIR fingerprints.

As a fungus with both medicinal and edible value, Wolfiporia cocos (F. A. Wolf) Ryvarden & Gilb. has drawn more public attention. Chemical components' content fluctuates in wild and cultivated W. cocos, whereas the accumulation ability of chemical components in different parts is different. In order to perform a quality assessment of W. cocos, we proposed a comprehensive method which was mainly realized by Fourier transform near-infrared (FT-NIR) spectroscopy and ultra-fast liquid chromatography (UFLC). A qualitative analysis means was built a residual convolutional neural network (ResNet) to recognize synchronous two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy (2DCOS) images. It can rapidly identify samples from wild and cultivated W. cocos in different parts. As a quantitative analysis method, UFLC was used to determine the contents of three triterpene acids in 547 samples. The results showed that a simultaneous qualitative and quantitative strategy could accurately evaluate the quality of W. cocos. The accuracy of ResNet models combined synchronous FT-NIR 2DCOS in identifying wild and cultivated W. cocos in different parts was as high as 100%. The contents of three triterpene acids in Poriae Cutis were higher than that in Poria, and the one with wild Poriae Cutis was the highest. In addition, the suitable habitat plays a crucial role in the quality of W. cocos. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model is a common method to predict the suitable habitat area for W. cocos under the current climate. Through the results, we found that suitable habitats were mostly situated in Yunnan Province of China, which accounted for approximately 49% of the total suitable habitat area of China. The research results not only pave the way for the rational planting in Yunnan Province of China and resource utilization of W. cocos, but also provide a basis for quality assessment of medicinal fungi.

Assessment of solar and wind energy potential in Far North Queensland, Australia

The study aims at selecting suitable sites for solar and wind power developments in remote areas of Far North Queensland (FNQ), Australia. A Geographical Information System (GIS) based multi-criteria approach has been introduced to map potential locations for solar and wind, considering various aspects such as climatic, technical, topography, social, environmental, and economic. The potential of solar and wind energy in suitable land areas has been assessed based on the technologies and site conditions. Analysis of the present study shows that the total suitable areas in selected regions are 57,705.46 km2 (70.56% of total selected land areas) with a power potential of 5,956.14 GW for solar and 58,482.79 km2 (71.51% of total selected land areas) with a power potential of 421.12 GW for wind energy developments. In addition, the study shows that Carpentaria shire has the highest suitable area of 45,689.55 km2 for solar and 46,115.27 km2 for wind, while Injinoo shire has the lowest implementable area of 105.74 km2 for solar and 137.75 km2 for wind. This study provides a significant pathway for parties interested in investing in renewable energy in FNQ.

Predicting the distributions of Scleroderma guani (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae) under climate change in China.

The wasp Scleroderma guani is an important parasitic natural enemy of a variety of stem borers such as longicorn beetles. Studying and clarifying the suitable area of this wasp plays an important role in controlling stem borers. Based on information about the actual distribution of S. guani and on a set of environmental variables, MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS were exploited to predict the potential distribution of this insect in China. This work simulated the geographical distribution of potential climatic suitability of S. guani in China at present and in different periods in the future. Combining the relative percent contribution score of environmental factors and the Jackknife test, the dominant environmental variables and their appropriate values restricting the potential geographical distribution of S. guani were screened. The results showed that the prediction of the MaxEnt model was highly in line with the actual distribution under current climate conditions, and the simulation accuracy was very high. The distribution of S. guani is mainly affected by bio18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter), bio11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter), bio13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month), and bio3 (Isothermality). The suitable habitat of S. guani in China is mainly distributed in the Northeast China Plain, North China Plain, middle‐lower Yangtze Plain, and Sichuan Basin, with total suitable area of 547.05 × 104 km2, accounting for 56.85% of China’s territory. Furthermore, under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios in the 2050s and 2090s, the areas of high, medium, and low suitability showed different degrees of change compared to nowadays, exhibiting expansion trend in the future. This work provides theoretical support for related research on pest control and ecological protection.

Distribution pattern and change prediction of Saposhnikovia divaricata suitable area in China under climate change

• Distribution of S. divaricata depends on temperature and precipitation seasonality, elevation, isothermally. • The suitable area of S. divaricata were mainly located in Northeast and North China. • The priority planting and wild tending regions of S. divaricata were identified. • Under the climate change, the suitable area of S. divaricata will be increased. • The migration of suitable area will tend to be high latitude in the future. Saposhnikovia divaricata is an important economic medicinal plant in eastern Asia. It is the National Grade III Key Protected Wild Medicinal Plants in China. However, little is known about the effects of projected climate change on its adaptability and future distribution. In this study, we simulated the suitable area of S. divaricata under current (1970–2000) and four climate change scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) in 2050s (2041–2060), 2070s (2061–2080) and 2090s (2081–2100) using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results demonstrated that temperature seasonality (Bio04), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), elevation (Ele), and isothermally (Bio03) were the most important environmental variables determining the distribution of S. divaricata . Under the current climate situation, the suitable areas were mainly located in Northeast China and North China, with a total area of 134.87 × 10 4 km 2 . The grassland is the largest land use type in the suitable area of S. divaricata . The priority planting region of S. divaricata are located in the southwest of Heilongjiang and the northwest of Jilin Province. The wild tending region is located in the middle east of Inner Mongolia. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of S. divaricata showed increasing trends. SSP5-8.5 scenario would have the highest area growth, with 43.09 %, 61.15 %, and 62.11 % increase in the three periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). In addition, the high latitude migration of the geometric center of the total suitable area is predicted. Our results could provide a reference for the conservation and sustainable development and utilization of this species in the future.

Prediction of Suitable Distribution Area of Plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is one of the regions most strongly affected by climate change. The climate feedback of the distribution of plateau pika, a key species, is closely related to the trophic structure of the plateau ecosystem and the development of agriculture and animal husbandry on the plateau. In order to understand the impact of future climate change on the suitable distribution area of plateau pika, potential suitable distribution areas of Plateau pika were predicted using the MaxEnt model under three climate scenarios (SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5) in the near term (2021–2040) and medium term (2041–2060). The predictions were found to be highly accurate with AUC values of 0.997 and 0.996 for the training and test sets. The main results are as follows: (1) The precipitation of the wettest month (BIO 16), mean diurnal range (BIO 2), slope, elevation, temperature seasonality (BIO 4), and annual mean temperature (BIO 1) were the main influencing factors. (2) In the historical period, the total suitable distribution area of Plateau pika in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau accounted for 29.90% of the total area at approximately 74.74 × 104 km2, concentrated in the eastern and central areas of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. (3) The total suitable distribution area of pika exhibited an expansion trend under SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5 in the near term (2021–2040), and the expansion area was concentrated in the eastern and central parts of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The expansion area was the largest in Qinghai Province, followed by Sichuan Province and Tibet. In contrast, the suitable distribution area shrank in the Altun Mountains, Xinjiang. Under SSP 5-8.5 in the near term and all scenarios in the medium term (2041–2060), the suitable distribution area of Plateau pika decreased to different degrees. The shrinkage area was concentrated at the margin of the Qaidam Basin, central Tibet, and the Qilian Mountains in the east of Qinghai Province. (4) Plateau pika migrated toward the east or southeast on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under the three climate scenarios. Under most of the scenarios, the migration distance was longer in the medium term than in the near term.

Similar Pattern of Potential Distribution of Pinus yunnanensis Franch and Tomicusyunnanensis Kirkendall under Climate Change in China

Tomicus yunnanensis Kirkendall (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) is a stem-boring pest that endangers Pinus yunnanensis Franch (Pinales:Pinoideae), which seriously affects the ecological environment safety in southwest China. In order to understand the potential distribution pattern and change in the potential distribution of P. yunnanensis and T. yunnanensis, this study used the maximum entropy model to predict the distribution of potentially suitable areas for P. yunnanensis and T. yunnanensis and explored the relationships between their different spatiotemporal distributions based on change analysis. The experimental results show that altitude is the main factor restricting the current distribution of P. yunnanensis. The current suitable areas of P. yunnanensis are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan and Guizhou. The minimum temperature of the coldest month is the main factor affecting the current distribution of T. yunnanensis. The current suitable areas of T. yunnanensis are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan and Tibet. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable areas of P. yunnanensis and T. yunnanensis are expected to increase. The suitable areas tend to move to higher altitudes in the west and higher latitudes in the north. At the same time, this study finds that there is an obvious bottleneck of expansion to northeastern Sichuan near the Daba Mountains. The results of intersection analysis showed that, with future climate change, P. yunnanensis and T. yunnanensis mainly showed lowly suitable (or unsuitable)—lowly suitable (or unsuitable) to moderately (or highly) suitable—and moderate (or high) variation patterns of suitable areas under the SSP1-2.6 climate scenario. These results will provide an important basis for the breeding of P. yunnanensis and controlling T. yunnanensis.

Potential of breadfruit cultivation to contribute to climate-resilient low latitude food systems

The number of people in food crisis around the world is increasing, exacerbated by COVID-19, conflict, and climate change. Major crop yields are projected to decrease in low-latitude regions, making tropical and sub-tropical food systems particularly vulnerable. Increased cultivation of breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis), a neglected and underutilized species (NUS), has the potential to enhance climate resilience and overall sustainability of low-latitude agricultural systems. To better understand breadfruit’s cultivation suitability and geographic range in current and future climates, we use breadfruit presence data collected from previous studies and a global citizen science database, and a selection of bioclimactic variables, to build an ensemble of 6 species distribution models that delineate the current climatically viable breadfruit range. We then assess the climatically viable future breadfruit range (2061–2080) under stabilization and high emission scenarios using an ensemble of 8 global circulation model (GCM) projections. The area of suitable breadfruit range within the global tropics and subtropics is projected to decrease ~4.4% in the stabilization scenario and ~4.5% in the high emission scenario. In Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands, yield quality and consistency show minimal decreases under the high emission scenario, with increases in total suitable area under both. In contrast, in Latin America and the Caribbean, the current suitable breadfruit range is projected to contract ~10.1–11.5% (stabilization-high emission). Present and future model suitability outputs suggest opportunities to successfully expand breadfruit cultivation over the next decades in sub-Saharan Africa, where food insecurity is coincidentally high. However, in all regions, high emission scenario conditions reduce the overall consistency and quality of breadfruit yields compared to the stabilization scenario. Our results have the potential to inform global food security adaptation planning, highlighting breadfruit as an ideal NUS to incorporate in food security adaptation strategies.