Potential of breadfruit cultivation to contribute to climate-resilient low latitude food systems

Abstract

The number of people in food crisis around the world is increasing, exacerbated by COVID-19, conflict, and climate change. Major crop yields are projected to decrease in low-latitude regions, making tropical and sub-tropical food systems particularly vulnerable. Increased cultivation of breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis), a neglected and underutilized species (NUS), has the potential to enhance climate resilience and overall sustainability of low-latitude agricultural systems. To better understand breadfruit’s cultivation suitability and geographic range in current and future climates, we use breadfruit presence data collected from previous studies and a global citizen science database, and a selection of bioclimactic variables, to build an ensemble of 6 species distribution models that delineate the current climatically viable breadfruit range. We then assess the climatically viable future breadfruit range (2061–2080) under stabilization and high emission scenarios using an ensemble of 8 global circulation model (GCM) projections. The area of suitable breadfruit range within the global tropics and subtropics is projected to decrease ~4.4% in the stabilization scenario and ~4.5% in the high emission scenario. In Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands, yield quality and consistency show minimal decreases under the high emission scenario, with increases in total suitable area under both. In contrast, in Latin America and the Caribbean, the current suitable breadfruit range is projected to contract ~10.1–11.5% (stabilization-high emission). Present and future model suitability outputs suggest opportunities to successfully expand breadfruit cultivation over the next decades in sub-Saharan Africa, where food insecurity is coincidentally high. However, in all regions, high emission scenario conditions reduce the overall consistency and quality of breadfruit yields compared to the stabilization scenario. Our results have the potential to inform global food security adaptation planning, highlighting breadfruit as an ideal NUS to incorporate in food security adaptation strategies.